Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Rồng Việt

Seaports – Container throughput maintains double-digit growth momentum in 4M2026

27-05-2026

: GMD, VSC, HAH

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

In 4M2026, Vietnam's seaborne container import and export value reached USD 90 billion (+16% YoY) and USD 65 billion (+20% YoY), respectively. The FDI sector played a crucial role, with seaborne container export and import values recording USD 121 billion (+36% YoY) and USD 86 billion (+47% YoY), respectively.
In 4M2026, container throughput through the Hai Phong and Cai Mep – Thi Vai regions recorded 2.8 million TEUs (+13% YoY) and 2.6 million TEUs (+11% YoY), respectively, lower than the growth rate of import-export turnover because high-tech goods have high value but do not contribute proportionally to container throughput. In Hai Phong, PHP continued to lead in market share thanks to putting HTIT (LH berths 3–4) into operation from 2H2025 and benefiting from MSC's trend of shifting volume from Nam Dinh Vu to HTIT. In the Cai Mep – Thi Vai region, overall regional growth slowed down as many ports exceeded their designed capacity, Gemalink and SSIT still recorded positive growth thanks to the low base of the SPLY.

GEG – Business results Q1/2026: Hydropower segment supports core revenue expansion

26-05-2026

: GEG

: Power

: Nguyen Duc Chinh

In Q1/2026, GEG recorded revenue of VND 767 billion (down 31% YoY and up 30% QoQ), profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) decreased by 45% YoY (+148% QoQ). The YoY decrease is due to the company no longer recording one-time income at the Tan Phu Dong 1 factory. Removing this revenue, the company's revenue is estimated to increase by 7% YoY.
Power generation increased by 10% YoY, thanks to (1) a 59% improvement in hydropower production due to prolonged La Niña phase hydrological conditions in Q1/2026, and (2) an 11% YoY increase in solar power generation due to thermal radiation levels at plants showing signs of improvement.
In 2026, revenue and NPAT-MI could reach VND 2,839 billion (-5% YoY) and VND 392 billion (-44% YoY), respectively, equivalent to EPS of VND 1,093 (-44% YoY). Currently, GEG stock is trading at a P/E of 11x and an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, which is lower than the 5-year average (18.4x and 9.3x). We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND20,400/share.

Will the Fed raise interest rates in the current context? and will interest rate levels in Vietnam cool down in the near future?

26-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Kevin Warsh, the new FED Chair, dislikes the Basel standards imposed on the banking system, dislikes quantitative easing (QE) or quantitative tightening (QT), dislikes policy guidance through media (forward guidance). He is generally very different from his predecessors. So, what is the new FED Chair's core policy stance? It may be endogenous easing combined with an appropriate policy interest rate level.
In general, Warsh's policy is much "quieter" than Powell's, with less market intervention through speeches, and measures that are much more technical in nature. Therefore, we should observe and wait for further signals from the FED (especially by closely monitoring its balance sheet, such as the expansion rate, reserve balance, and the overnight index swap (OIS) rate, rather than focusing solely on the Fed’s dot plot or the FedWatch Tool).
The probability of the FED raising interest rates in meetings between now and the end of the year is low due to: the constraint of supporting the U.S. Treasury (UST) bond market, cost-push inflation caused by the prolonged Iran conflict (raising interest rates for this type of inflation is ineffective), and the fact that raising rates would strengthens the USD, forcing the Japanese Ministry of Finance (the world's largest holder of USTs) to intervene in the Yen by selling USTs and buying JPY, which would cause UST yields to rise—conflicting with the goal of supporting UST yield stability.
Regarding domestic interest rate levels (especially for long-term tenors), they will remain under pressure despite positive signals such as the inclusion of term Treasury deposits in the LDR ratio (20%) to reduce liquidity pressure. Perhaps the regulator needs to consider using stronger system support tools such as refinancing. Additionally, the exchange rate variable needs to be monitored closely in the coming time.

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Q1-2026 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Profit Growth Momentum Sustained, Liquidity Pressure Unlikely To End Soon

25-05-2026

: VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB

: Banking

: Tung Do

Total operating income of listed banks exceeded VND 190,000 billion (+15% YoY and -9% QoQ) and sector pre-tax profit (PBT) in Q1-2026 surpassed VND 94,000 billion (+14% YoY and -3% QoQ), completing approximately 23% of the full-year 2026 PBT plan — on par with the same period last year. We note that excluding the significant and idiosyncratic PBT declines at STB and SSB, full-sector PBT growth reached 22% YoY.
Key growth drivers for sector revenue and profit included: (1) Credit volume of listed banks approached VND 15 quadrillion, growing 19.2% YoY or 3.5% YTD (vs. system-wide: +18.2% YoY and 3.2% YTD), driving net interest income up 17% YoY; (2) Service fee income surged 43% YoY; (3) Other income grew nearly 40% YoY, including VND 9,500 billion in recoveries of written-off bad debts (+21% YoY); (4) The 12-month rolling CIR declined 180bps YoY to 31.7%.
Key concerns: (1) Deposit mobilisation remained challenging (listed banks grew 1.7% YTD with sharp divergence amid intense competition), pushing the sector's cost of funds up 55bps YoY and 30bps QoQ to 4.2%; we see no near-term signal of easing liquidity stress; (2) Net NPL formation rebounded sharply in Q1 (nearly VND 43,000 billion — roughly 3x Q1-2025), driven partly by seasonal factors, pushing the NPL ratio to nearly 2.0% (+13bps QoQ) and indirectly compressing NIM (-15bps QoQ to 2.90%) through interest income reversals.
System-wide liquidity pressure and the rising interest rate trend are expected to persist, as underlying fundamentals show no clear sign of improvement. As of end-April 2026, deposit growth was only 2.2% YTD while credit growth had already reached 4.4% YTD (commercial banks are no longer subject to credit growth caps from Q2-2026), indicating the deposit-credit gap continues to widen. Additionally, the cumulative budget surplus through April 2026 climbed to VND 445,000 billion — reflecting continued underperformance in public investment disbursement versus plan, meaning large amounts of money have yet to re-circulate into the market. We expect liquidity pressure may ease significantly in H2-2026 if public investment disbursement accelerates materially enough to shift the budget to a deficit — this will be the most important signal to monitor when assessing when bank funding cost pressure begins to subside.
The sharp rebound in net NPL formation in Q1-2026 may not fully reflect system-wide asset quality deterioration, as it is concentrated in a small number of banks. The Q1 seasonal uptick in NPLs is also influenced by liquidity disruptions at enterprises after the Lunar New Year holiday, along with the lagged effects of Q4 bad debt reporting behavior. That said, net NPL formation trends still need to be monitored in Q2-2026, given risks to borrower repayment capacity from the sharp rise in interest rates and the indirect impact of the prolonged Middle East conflict on input costs and inflation.

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VHC – US Market Drives Strong Q1/2026 Recovery

22-05-2026

: VHC

: Fishery

: Hien Le

In Q1/2026, net revenue and NPAT-MI grew by 12% YoY and 37.8% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in value-added products (+63% YoY). Specifically, revenue from frozen fillet increased 14% YoY, by-products rose 17%, C&G grew 21%, and Sa Giang rose 16% YoY. By market, the US remained the key growth driver with revenue surging 40% YoY, while the EU increased 6% YoY and China declined slightly by 3% YoY.
Gross margin improved to 14.6% (from 12.7% in the same period last year), supported by a 9% YoY increase in average selling prices, which outpaced the 4% YoY rise in raw material costs. The SG&A-to-revenue ratio remained stable at 5%. As a result, the net profit margin expanded to 9% (from 7% YoY).
For the full year 2026, we forecast net revenue of VND 12,507 billion (+4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,526 billion (+8% YoY), implying an EPS of VND 6,798 . We maintain our target price of VND 73,300/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation on VHC.

Corporate Bond Market: Maturity pressure remains high in an environment of pegged interest rates

22-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

A key highlight this quarter is the rise of non-bank enterprises. This group led the issuance value, contributing 70.4% of the total value (with the real estate sector in the lead). Conversely, the banking sector, traditionally the primary issuer in the market, contributed only 29.6% of the value in Q1/2026.
In the secondary market, the average yield to maturity (YTM) of bonds also recorded corresponding movements, reflecting investors' expectations regarding interest rates and the necessary risk premium amidst liquidity pressure on near-term maturities. Fluctuating interest rates have significantly impacted the corporate bond market, evidenced by increases in both issuance rates and yield to maturity (YTM). In Q1 2026, issuers had to accept higher issuance rates when issuing bonds, reflecting increased capital costs in unfavorable market conditions.
Maturity pressure in the coming quarters is substantial, with $42.2 trillion in Q2/2026 and $73.3 trillion in Q3/2026, concentrated in the real estate sector. This requires issuers to proactively balance cash flows or negotiate with bondholders to address debt obligations in the near future.
The Ministry of Finance has sought feedback on the Draft Decree on private placement of bonds, which will replace Decree 153/2020. In the future, the new policy framework clearly distinguishes between the two issuance methods (public and private), which is expected to promote the public channel as a more primary and sustainable capital mobilization channel. Under this orientation, individual investors are encouraged to participate primarily in the public issuance channel, which has stricter requirements regarding credit ratings and investor protection mechanisms. Meanwhile the private placement channel will continue to be reserved for professional investors under the principle of self-responsibility

406

PNJ – 1Q26 results: Flexibility driving growth

21-05-2026

: PNJ

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

PNJ reported 1Q26 revenue of VND 17.245 trillion (+79.0% YoY), exceeding our forecast by 27%, mainly driven by a threefold YoY increase in 24K gold segment revenue. Retail jewelry revenue reached VND 8.191 trillion (+22.5% YoY; contributing 47.5% of total net revenue), broadly in line with our expectations.
Q1 NPAT-MI came in at VND 1.467 trillion (+116.5% YoY, in line with our forecast), translating into a net margin of 8.5% (+1.5 ppts YoY). This strong performance was primarily supported by: (1) gross margin expansion of around 1-2 ppts across both retail jewelry and 24K gold segments from an already high base in the same period last year (based on our estimates), thanks to the sharp rise in gold prices during Q1 while the company had proactively accumulated raw materials since 4Q25 through its “collect-and-exchange” program; and (2) aside from salary and bonus expenses, most selling support costs incurred during the peak season remained broadly flat YoY, while much stronger revenue growth helped SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decline by 3.1 ppts YoY.
We are considering revising up our 2026 net revenue forecast for PNJ, primarily driven by a higher growth assumption for the 24K gold segment following stronger-than-expected Q1 results in this category. Nevertheless, our NPAT forecast is unlikely to change materially, with preliminary earnings expected to remain at around VND 3,350–3,400 bn (given the very low gross margin of the 24K gold segment), implying forecast EPS of VND 6,500 - 6,600. We maintain our target price at VND 90,400/share (adjusted for the 2-for-1 bonus share issuance, with the record date on April 24, 2026), corresponding to a BUY recommendation with an upside potential of 39% compared to the closing price as of May 21, 2026.

MSN – WinMart Retail & Tungsten: The two key growth stories of 2026

20-05-2026

: MSN

: Retailing

: Hung Nguyen

MSN reported impressive Q1-2026 results with net revenue reaching VND 24,020 bn (+3.3% QoQ, +27.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 1,246 bn (-15.5% QoQ, +274.6% YoY). However, the figures missed our expectation by approximately 35% due to a provisioning expense of around VND 409 bn related to the investment in Trusting Social (in which MSN holds a 25.1% stake). This provision was recorded under its GA expenses (totaling VND 1,369 bn, +61.2% YoY).
Overall, MSN’s share price has remained largely flat since the beginning of the year, trading at a trailing P/E of 23.5x and a forward P/E of 20.2x (based on the Company’s plan through the first half of 2026). This implies that the current valuation appears attractive relative to the strong growth outlook (over 60.0% YoY for 2026-27F according to our current projections).

GDA – Domestic market continues to be a pillar

19-05-2026

: GDA

: Materials

: Thach Lam Do, CFA

In Q1/2026, GDA recorded revenue of 3,589 billion VND (-10% YoY, +6% QoQ), with sales volume of coated steel reaching 189 thousand tons (-4% YoY, +17% QoQ). Although sales volume declined compared to the same period in 2025 (mainly due to a 42% YoY decrease in export volume), the company maintained its position in the domestic market, with volume reaching 143 thousand tons (+22% YoY, +4% QoQ, ranking 2nd in market share).
The company plans to pay a 2025 dividend of 10% in cash (1,000 VND/share, to be paid in 2026) and 10% in stock (100 shares receive 10 new shares). The company continues to maintain its cash dividend policy (1,000 VND/share, with a dividend yield of ~7%), while the stock dividend policy is expected to increase the number of outstanding shares and improve stock liquidity. Additionally, the company is submitting major changes to its Charter for approval— a necessary condition for completing the application for listing on the HOSE.
Currently, GDA's target price is maintained at 21,900 VND/share (upside +59%), and the stock is trading at a P/B of 0.5x—a significant discount relative to the company's assets and position in the domestic market.

Why Banks Cannot Hold Too Many Government Bonds and Market Bottlenecks

18-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Commercial banks (NHTMs) have a high demand for Government Bonds (G-bonds) due to their high liquidity. When the market is not under stress, these bonds can be converted into sources to balance liquidity through repo transactions or the Open Market Operation (OMO). Furthermore, holding G-bonds has minimal impact on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) as they are classified as High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), and they are considered safer than conventional lending.
However, excessive G-bond holdings can lead to four serious imbalances: (1) Liquidity mismatch; (2) Repricing mismatch; (3) Maturity mismatch; (4) Capital mismatch: For banks with thin capital, holding a full portfolio of bonds can prevent the capital from absorbing losses, even if the bonds are not classified as bad debt.
The "Negative Carry" situation (where the cost of maintaining bonds exceeds the investment yield) has eliminated the business incentive for commercial banks. Consequently, they only purchase bonds to ensure regulatory liquidity safety ratios instead of seeking profit through arbitrage. They are also unable to increase their holdings due to exposure to balancing risks. With yields moving sideways around the 4% mark while capital costs remain expensive (with the floor rate being the OMO rate at 4.5%), the Government bond market is currently in a state of deadlock. The market urgently requires more flexible regulatory mechanisms or a strong enough policy “push” to unlock financial resources for the State's key public investment projects.
The difficulties in the domestic market stem not only from internal limitations but also from significant pressure from the global interest rate environment, in which the US market plays a dominant role.

435

GMD – Southern port cluster continues to be a growth driver in Q1-FY26

15-05-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

In Q1-FY26, GMD's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,452 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 534 billion (+33% YoY), respectively. Container handling volumes at major port clusters, namely Nam Dinh Vu, Binh Duong & Phuoc Long PIP, and Gemalink, reached 328 thousand TEUs (-8% YoY), 382 thousand TEUs (+12% YoY), and 523 thousand TEUs (+19% YoY), respectively.
For the 2026 forecast, net revenue and NPAT-MI are expected to reach VND 6,341 billion (+7% YoY) and VND 2,234 billion (+27% YoY), respectively. The 2026 EPS is 5,238 VND. Recently, GMD shares have risen positively from 73,700 VND/share to 81,600 VND/share (closing price on 05/13/2026), narrowing the upside potential from 26% in the previous report to 13%. We recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of 90,300 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 2,200 VND/share.

NLG – Impressive presales in 4M2026

14-05-2026

: NLG

: Real Estate

: Giao Nguyen

Q1/2026 business results were supported by the transfer of commercial land for the school project at Waterpoint, which contributed VND 490 billion, helping to compensate for the shortfall of the real estate handover segment. Gross profit margin recorded 30%, corresponding NPAT-MI reached VND 68 billion (-37% YoY).
Presales in 4M2026 were a bright spot, reaching VND 3,507 billion, up 4 times compared to Q1/2025. In particular, the Sol Garden project (Hai Phong) recorded strong absorption when bringing in more than 1,200 billion VND after only 20 days of opening for sale. The business plans for 2026 with a record presales target of VND 23,000 billion (+94% YoY), which will create a huge backlog for the next 2-3 years, while profits in 2026 are expected to be flat due to handover delays.
NLG is a real estate enterprise with the advantages of: 1/ Large-scale clean land fund located in key infrastructure axes, benefiting from the trend of moving people out of the center for real housing needs; 2/ Taking advantage of a diversified range of business segments to boost sales and accumulate a large backlog. We set a target price for NLG stock at VND 37,000/share, which corresponds to a BUY recommendation for long-term investors.

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Seaports – Container throughput maintains double-digit growth momentum in 4M2026

27-05-2026

: GMD, VSC, HAH

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

Tags: Seaports

GEG – Business results Q1/2026: Hydropower segment supports core revenue expansion

26-05-2026

: GEG

: Power

: Nguyen Duc Chinh

Tags:

Will the Fed raise interest rates in the current context? and will interest rate levels in Vietnam cool down in the near future?

26-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Tags:

Q1-2026 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Profit Growth Momentum Sustained, Liquidity Pressure Unlikely To End Soon

25-05-2026

: VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB

: Banking

: Tung Do

Tags:

VHC – US Market Drives Strong Q1/2026 Recovery

22-05-2026

: VHC

: Fishery

: Hien Le

Tags: VHC

Corporate Bond Market: Maturity pressure remains high in an environment of pegged interest rates

22-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Tags:

PNJ – 1Q26 results: Flexibility driving growth

21-05-2026

: PNJ

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

Tags: PNJ

MSN – WinMart Retail & Tungsten: The two key growth stories of 2026

20-05-2026

: MSN

: Retailing

: Hung Nguyen

Tags: MSN

GDA – Domestic market continues to be a pillar

19-05-2026

: GDA

: Materials

: Thach Lam Do, CFA

Tags:

Why Banks Cannot Hold Too Many Government Bonds and Market Bottlenecks

18-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Tags:

GMD – Southern port cluster continues to be a growth driver in Q1-FY26

15-05-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

Tags: Seaports GMD

NLG – Impressive presales in 4M2026

14-05-2026

: NLG

: Real Estate

: Giao Nguyen

Tags: NLG

Tags