04-03-2026VNINDEX1818.275.130.28% HNXIndex257.85-2.16-0.83% UPCOM127.23-1.83-1.42% VN301956.53-2.82-0.14% VN1001856.66-8.12-0.44% HNX30572.85-7.68-1.32% VNXALL2896.81-14.49-0.50% VNX503228.64-13.08-0.40% VNMID2247.12-26.24-1.15% VNSML1491.7-12.32-0.82% VIB – Positive 2026F PBT growth supported by NIM expansion
04-03-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Full-year 2025 PBT amounted to VND 9.1 trillion, fulfilling only 83% of the full-year target (VND 11 trillion). PBT growth in 2025 was flat YoY due to the following factors: (1) credit growth in 2025 was capped at 17.7% (2024: 21.5%); (2) NIM narrowed significantly by 64 bps YoY to 3.1%; (3) non-interest income reached VND 1.8 trillion, down 12% YoY, mainly due to negative FX trading results of VND 154 billion (2024: a gain of VND 500 billion) and investment securities trading contributing only VND 80 billion (-68% YoY); (4) operating expenses amounted to over VND 7.4 trillion (+3% YoY). ROA and ROE declined sharply to 1.4% and 16.4%, respectively (2024: 1.6% and 18.1%).
- We forecast PBT growth of 24% and 22% in 2026–2027F, respectively, driven primarily by (1) credit growth of 15.9% and 16.5%, (2) NIM expansion amid higher lending rates, and (3) improving asset quality with well-controlled credit costs.
- Given the recovery prospects for profitability metrics and asset quality, we expect VIB’s P/B valuation to reach 1.4x over the next 12 months. Using a blended valuation approach: (1) the Residual Income Model and (2) P/B peer comparison, each assigned a 50% weighting, we derive a target price of VND 20,000 per share for VIB, implying a 23% total return (including VND 700 cash dividend) from the closing price of VND 16,850 on Mar 4, 2026.
FPT – Q4-2025’s results improved thanks to recovery effect in new backlog growth
03-03-2026
: FPT
: Technologies
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: FPT
- FPT recorded improved Q4-2025 business results with net revenue reaching VND 20,226 bn (+17.6% QoQ, +14.9% YoY), and NPAT-MI at VND 2,502 bn (+2.8% QoQ, +19.5% YoY). This improvement was driven by the recovery effect in recent new backlog growth and our view of an accelerated backlog recognition trend (6-9 months).
- FPT is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 16.9x and a forward P/E (2026F) of 14.5x. These levels are below its 5-year historical average of 19.8x and significantly lower than peers in the Indian IT sector (typically above 20.0x). Overall, the current share price appears attractive when benchmarked against FPT's stable earnings growth outlook (~14.0% YoY) and elevated ROE (~21.0%), which together provide meaningful room for re-rating, particularly in a scenario where IT software outsourcing sector experiences limited structural changes by late 2025.
- That said, we see several medium-term risks emerging for FPT's business model heading into early 2026. These include the specialized Claude Code feature from Anthropic, which targets COBOL modernization—a capability that could disrupt legacy IT outsourcing services, especially in FPT's key market of Japan (where COBOL remains heavily entrenched in banking and insurance sectors). Additionally, ongoing developments around FPT Corporation's ownership stake in FPT Telecom (UPCoM: FOX) lack sufficient clarity at this stage to form a definitive view. Accordingly, we are changing our recommendation on FPT to OBSERVE pending a reassessment of a reasonable target valuation in the near term.
CTG – FY2026F Business Plan Update and Financial Forecast Revision
02-03-2026
: CTG
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- CTG has disclosed key strategic directions for 2026, with the following highlights: (1) Credit growth is expected to remain broadly in line with the 2025 level (~15%), implying an upward revision to the initial credit growth quota granted at the start of the year (11.1%); (2) Net interest margin (NIM) has considerable room for expansion in 2026, supported by enhanced interest rate repricing capacity as competitive pricing pressure eases materially amid tightening credit supply, combined with effective funding cost management through a robust increase in the CASA ratio; (3) Credit costs are projected to decline modestly, underpinned by stable control over newly formed non-performing loan (NPL) formation and the maintenance of key asset quality metrics, including the NPL ratio and NPL coverage ratio; (4) Non-recurring income is anticipated from the recognition of gains related to the divestiture of the VietinBank headquarters building, expected to be booked in 1H2026.
- We maintain a positive outlook on CTG's business prospects for FY2026, with our current pre-tax profit (PBT) forecast standing at VND 56,100 billion (+29% YoY), premised on the following key assumptions: credit growth of 15%, NIM of 2.84% (+22 bps YoY), credit cost of 0.9% (-3 bps YoY), and non-interest income (primarily from off-balance-sheet NPL recoveries) of VND 9,800 billion (broadly flat versus 2025).
- Our 2026F BVPS estimate stands at VND 28,500, implying a 2026F forward P/B of 1.3x. This represents a notable discount to the current trailing P/B of approximately 1.7x and remains below our target P/B of 1.8x for CTG.
- We reiterate our BUY recommendation on CTG with a target price of VND 46,100 per share, implying an expected total return of 26% based on the closing price as of March 2, 2026.
SAB 2025 Results: Earnings below expectations, a bright spot from input cost optimization
27-02-2026
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Anh Tran
Tags: SAB
- 4Q2025 net revenue reached VND 6,837bn (-23.5% yoy). FY2025 revenue totaled VND 25,888bn (-18.8% yoy), missing the company’s full-year plan. The beer segment accounted for 95% of quarterly revenue (down 16.1% yoy in Q4), while FY2025 beer revenue declined 13.2% yoy due to several external factors (seasonality, natural disasters, and weaker demand), resulting in lower-than-expected sales volume.
- On the positive side, input cost optimization was a key highlight throughout 2025, supported by declining malt and rice prices, allowing SAB to secure lower input costs compared to the previous period. Gross margin expanded significantly, more than offsetting a 4.0 pps yoy increase in SG&A/net revenue. As a result, 4Q2025 NPAT-MI reached VND 1,062bn (+10.0% yoy, -21.9% qoq). FY2025 NPAT-MI rose to VND 4,424bn (+2.2% yoy), with net margin improving to 17.1% (+3.5 pps yoy).
- From an industry perspective, Vietnam’s beer consumption volume in 2025 has only recovered to near pre-COVID levels and has yet to return to its previous high-growth trajectory. Heading into 2026, we maintain our expectation of a more favorable year for the beer industry, supported by major events that should drive stronger consumption for SAB. The 2025 margin expansion provides a solid foundation for 2026, as raw material prices and FX trends remain supportive. We maintain our 12-month target price for SAB at VND 55,000/share. Including a projected cash dividend of VND 5,000/share over the next year, we expect a total return of 23% (including a 10% dividend yield), implying a BUY recommendation.
VHC – NPAT-MI in 2025 Exceeded the Positive Scenario Target
26-02-2026
: VHC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Q4/2025 business performance declined sharply YoY, with revenue reached VND 2,715 billion (-15% YoY) due to an estimated 27% YoY drop in pangasius export volume, partially offset by an 8% YoY increase in selling prices. NPAT-MI reached VND 222 billion (-47% YoY), declining more sharply than revenue due to VND 98 billion inventory provisions (vs. VND 94 billion reversal in the prior year).
- Revenue in 2025 reached VND 12,026 billion and decrease by 4% YoY due to a 13% YoY decline in pangasius exports. NPAT-MI in 2025 reached VND 1,363 billion (+10% YoY) and exceed the plan in the positive scenario of the business at VND 1.3 trillion.
- Despite the revenue decline, NPAT-MI increased sharply thanks to a 140 bps YoY improvement in gross margin and reduced selling & administrative expenses (SG&A/revenue ratio down slightly by 37 bps YoY). The gross margin improvement stemmed from a 2% YoY rise in pangasius selling prices and a 3% YoY increase in the average USD/VND exchange rate. Selling expenses decreased due to a 36% YoY drop in transportation costs and a 9% reduction in administrative expenses (no provision for the scientific research fund).
PVD – Q4/2025 results: Strong outperformance and contractor tax reversal
25-02-2026
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVD
- For 2025, PVD delivered financial results exceeding expectations, with robust growth in both revenue and earnings. In Q4/2025, the company benefited from sustained high rig utilization, full-quarter contribution from the newly deployed rig, and a clear recovery in well-technical services.
- Q4 earnings growth was driven not only by improved core operations but also by a contractor tax reversal in Malaysia. For FY2025, PVD significantly outperformed both its internal targets and our initial forecasts, reinforcing its financial position and competitive standing amid a favorable industry cycle.
- For 2026, PVD’s rig fleet remains fully contracted across key markets including Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, and Vietnam. Most owned rigs are secured for the majority of the year, while chartered rigs are deployed flexibly to optimize utilization and maintain domestic market share.
GEG–2025 performance: Stable core growth, further supported by extraordinary income
24-02-2026
: GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q4/2025, GEG recorded revenue of VND 590 billion (+6% YoY) and VND 83 billion profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) (+169% YoY). The growth was mainly led by (a) a 19% YoY increase in hydropower output and (b) a 29% YoY increase in wind power group revenue despite a 5% YoY decline in output thanks to the new selling price at Tan Phu Dong 1 plant.
- GEG's interest expense in the quarter decreased by 17% YoY due to a 10% YoY decrease in the company's long-term outstanding loans.
- For the whole year of 2025, GEG's revenue reach VND 2,999 billion (+29% YoY) and NPAT-MI rose to VND 702 billion (+512% YoY), equivalent to 96%/116% compared to analyst’s forecast . NPAT-MI is supported by the one-time earning from price difference of Tan Phu Dong 1 plant and the new electricity selling price of this plant.
HAH – Q4-FY25 performance moderated as the low base effect dissipated
23-02-2026
: HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In Q4-FY25, revenue and NPAT-MI of HAH reached VND 1,300 billion (+7% YoY) and VND 308 billion (+10% YoY), respectively. Container handling and shipping volumes reached 140 thousand TEUs (-11% YoY) and 164 thousand TEUs (flat YoY), respectively.
- For 2025, net revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 5,091 billion (+28% YoY) and VND 1,207 billion (+86% YoY), fulfilling 98% and 103% of our forecasts, respectively. Overall, HAH’s performance was in line with our expectations at the beginning of the year, as the chartering segment improved with a higher number of chartered vessels and elevated charter rates.
HDG – Recovery in key business segments
13-02-2026
: HDG
: Real Estate, Utilities
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- The company delivered a recovery in 2025 performance, with net revenue reaching VND 2,786bn (+2.5% YoY). This was driven by the Energy segment, specifically a surge in hydropower output (estimated at ~30% YoY) due to favorable hydrological conditions from the La Niña phase. A significantly reduced provisioning burden from the HP4 project further bolstered the bottom line, resulting in an NPAT-MI of VND 706bn (+103% YoY).
- Looking ahead to 2026, we maintain a positive outlook, with revenue and gross profit projected at VND 3.6 trillion (+33% YoY) and VND 2.6 trillion (+71% YoY), respectively. This growth is expected to be primarily fueled by the sales launch and revenue recognition of low-rise units at the Charm Villa 03 project.
OCB - FY2025 PBT up 26%, achieving 95% of target driven by strong non-interest income
12-02-2026
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- OCB reported total operating income and Q4/25 PBT of nearly VND 3.8 trillion (+29% QoQ, +17% YoY) and over VND 1.6 trillion (+5% QoQ, +11% YoY), respectively. Growth was primarily driven by a strong expansion in non-interest income, which reached nearly VND 1.3 trillion (+154% QoQ, +128% YoY), including (1) net fee & service income of VND 400 billion (+114% QoQ, -14% YoY) and (2) written-off bad debt recoveries of nearly VND 700 billion (3.5 times QoQ and 6.5 times YoY).
- For FY2025, OCB recorded solid performance, with PBT exceeding VND 5 trillion (+26% YoY), completing 95% of the AGM target. Results highlighted the strong contribution from non-interest income of nearly VND 2.4 trillion (+62% YoY), supporting a 15% YoY increase in total operating income, while net interest income rose only 7% YoY amid NIM pressure (-30 bps YoY to 3.1%). A significant portion of non-interest income came from exceptional off-balance-sheet bad debt recoveries, which reached VND 1.1 trillion, more than five times higher than the same period last year.
- For 2026, we expect NII growth to reach double digits, despite a flatten NIM amid rising funding pressures, particularly at medium- and long-term tenors, as the bank seeks to improve the short-term funding for medium- and long-term lending ratio (SMLR stood at over 28% in 4Q25). In addition, the positive expansion of Non NII streams (bancassurance, corporate advisory services, and recoveries from written-off NPLs) is expected to be a key driver of TOI growth.
- On valuation, the re-rating of OCB’s P/B multiple over the past year has been largely driven by the positive performance of the broader market and the banking sector. The current headline P/B of 0.9x reflects a discount for ongoing provisioning pressures and asset quality risks. On an NPL-adjusted basis (P/B of 1.2x), OCB’s re-rating upside remains limited, as provisioning costs are still elevated, requiring the bank to deliver clearer and more sustainable improvements in operating efficiency and profitability to justify a higher valuation. We will update our forecasts and valuation in upcoming reports. We will update our earnings forecasts and target price in upcoming reports.
POW – Business results Q4/2025 and the whole year 2025: Far exceeding guidance
11-02-2026
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- PV Power's electricity genrated volume (Qm) increased by 49% YoY, mainly led by the Nhon Trach 3&4 plant coming into operation.
- POW's revenue was flat (+1% YoY) because Nhon Trach 3&4 plant has not recorded revenue in 4Q/2025. Net profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-Mi) increased by 956% YoY.
- The company's gross profit margin improved by 5.2 percentage points YoY (reaching 12%) thanks to (1) a 25% YoY increase in contracted production (Qc) and (2) a continued decline in fuel prices.
MSN – Emerging signs of medium-term profitability improvement
10-02-2026
: MSN, MML, MSR, MCH
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: MSN MCH MML MSR
- In Q4-2025, MSN recorded net revenue of VND 23,246 bn (+9.8% QoQ, +2.4% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 1,474 bn (+22.0% QoQ, +113.3% YoY), exceeding our expectation of VND 1,200–1,400 bn. Consistent with prior quarters in 2025, this outperformance stemmed from margin expansion across WCM, MHT, MML, PLH, and contributions from TCB.
- We maintain our 2026 earnings forecast for MSN, with NPAT-MI at VND 6,089 bn (+48.2% YoY), and a target price of VND 107,900 per share, implying a BUY recommendation.
04-03-2026
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