22-01-2026VNINDEX1882.73-2.71-0.14% HNXIndex258.435.772.28% UPCOM127.171.240.98% VN302082.351.970.09% VN1001961.847.810.40% HNX30569.037.321.30% VNXALL3044.3915.070.50% VNX503416.7310.770.32% VNMID2277.8532.251.44% VNSML1514.9618.291.22% Real Estate Industry 2026 – Rebalancing after a period of misphased growth
22-01-2026
: KDH, NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Real estate
- The residential real estate market is expected to enter a rebalancing phase from 2026, when legal bottlenecks are gradually removed and the project implementation environment gradually improves. The new supply is expected to be more evenly differentiated for the affordable – mid-end segments, with a clear shift to satellite areas around HCMC such as Binh Duong, Long An, Dong Nai and Ba Ria – Vung Tau.
- On the demand side, market dynamics in the coming period are forecast to shift markedly from the factor of "interest rate incentives" to "real affordability" of buyers. In the context of the interest rate level in 2026 is forecast to increase.
- In terms of price, especially in Ho Chi Minh City. We expect to be more stable and sustainable when the presence of the affordable – mid-end segment is expected to contribute to pulling the price level to an appropriate level.
VPB – Q4-2025 Business Results Update: Profit Growth Exceeds Expectations with Stable Asset Quality
21-01-2026
: VPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- VPB announced its 4Q25 business results with consolidated profit before tax (PBT) reaching VND 10.2 trillion (+12% QoQ and +66% YoY), exceeding our forecast (VND 8.8 trillion) by 17%. This outperformance was driven by a significant surge in other income (primarily from recoveries of previously written-off bad debts) in 4Q24, amounting to over VND 3 trillion (+31% YoY), alongside service revenue that was 73% stronger than anticipated, while credit costs aligned with expectations.
- Full-year 2025 consolidated PBT totaled VND 30.6 trillion (+53% YoY), surpassing our projection by 8%. This included PBT from the parent bank at VND 26.4 trillion (+44% YoY), VPX (including other comprehensive income) at over VND 4.7 trillion (nearly four times YoY), and FE Credit's PBT (pre-internal adjustments) at over VND 600 billion (+19% YoY).
- VPB's 4Q24 results exceeded expectations and demonstrated the bank's effective leverage of its competitive advantages, such as a high credit growth quota, a diverse financial services ecosystem (encompassing insurance, securities, and consumer finance), and synergies with favorable business and capital market conditions to deliver strong PBT growth. We also commend the improvement in profitability trend at VPB, coupled with stable asset quality control in 4Q24, alongside positive outcomes from bad debt recovery efforts following the legalization of Resolution 42's supportive legal framework. These factors are anticipated to recur in 2026. Accordingly, our current 2026 forecasts and target price (VND 33,300 per share) present upside potential for upward revision.
Forecast VN30 Index reconstitution outcome – Q1/2026 review
20-01-2026
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- VN30 rebalancing timeline: Under HOSE’s periodic review schedule, the VN30 outcome will be announced on 21 Jan 2026 and
effective from 02 Feb 2026. Rong Viet Securities’ base case expects VPL to be added and BCM to be removed.
- Estimated trading flows (by volume) – Rong Viet: The top expected net buys are ACB (+3.3m shares), HPG (+3.0m shares) and TCB
(+2.3m shares).
PVC Resin Price Outlook 2026 – No Longer at Low Levels Due to China’s New Policy
19-01-2026
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
:
Tags: Plastic
- In 2026, China will officially tighten its export support policy by abolishing the 13% VAT rebate on PVC resin (effective from April 2026). This move comes as the country’s plastics industry faces significant oversupply pressure (a surplus of more than 364 thousand tons in 2025) and persistently negative profit margins at factories. Cutting subsidies is seen as a step to mitigate the risk of retaliatory tariffs and to weed out inefficient domestic producers.
- We expect regional PVC prices to establish a new base around USD 700/ton (+10% YoY) from Q2/2026, as producers pass on the increased tax cost (approximately USD 75/ton) into selling prices. Despite higher input costs, profit margins of large plastic pipe companies (BMP, NTP) are still expected to expand by 1–2%, thanks to expectations of increased inventories of low-priced goods in Q1—when Chinese factories ramp up exports ahead of the new regulation’s effective date.
Aviation - Asia remains the primary growth engine for passenger revenue
16-01-2026
: ACV
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- • In 2026, global passenger traffic is forecast to increase by 4.9% YoY, reflecting a modest improvement in global GDP growth. Over the 2024–2026 period, RPK growth is expected to converge more closely with GDP growth, at approximately 1.5x.
• Aircraft delivery delays will continue to leave airlines facing fleet shortages in 2026, constraining seat capacity. As a result, load factors (LF) are expected to remain elevated at around 83.8%, edging up slightly YoY.
• Asia–Pacific remains the leading region, supported by strong economic momentum in China, India, and South Korea. Air travel demand is increasingly driven by Asia, underpinning regional and global passenger growth.
Nickel market: Price rallied as Indonesia cut production
15-01-2026
: PC1
: Materials
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The global nickel industry is in a period of strong growth with supply and demand growing at a compound rate of 11% per year and 9% per year
- Indonesia has the world's largest reserves and the world's largest nickel refining industry. Nickel demand is being driven by the electric vehicle industry in China.
- In Vietnam, there is only one large-scale nickel production and export company, Tan Phat Minerals Company – a member of PC1 Group (HSX: PC1) with an annual export volume of about 50,000 – 60,000 tons.
- In early 2026, nickel prices have seen a slight increase as Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Minerals plans to cut production by about 30% to protect selling prices.
Fishery industry – Maintain profit growth momentum in 2026
14-01-2026
: VHC, FMC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags: ANV VHC FMC
- In 2026, the growth in NPAT-MI of the fisheries industry is expected to come from improving gross margin in the pangasius segment and production growth in the tilapia and shrimp segments. The estimated NPAT-MI of ANV/VHC/FMC expected to grow by 12%/10%/10%, respectively.
- In terms of the catfish industry, ANV owns the strongest growth momentum as the strategy of diversifying the pangasius market and boosting the consumption new tilapia segment. In contrast, VHC faces fierce competitive pressure from ANV itself in the US market, limiting the room for price increase and volume consumtion in the US. The growth of VHC's output will depend on the sales policy accompanied by the expansion of other markets besides the US.
- Regarding the shrimp industry, for FMC, growth in 2026 is mainly based on a 5% YoY increase in consumption volume with high increases from the EU and Japanese markets while the US market is expected to declin slightly by 8% due to international competitive pressure and high anti-dumping duties in the US.
- The gross margin of the pangasius segment in 2026 is expected to improve slightly by 1-2 pps YoY to 16%-18% depending on the business, thanks to the expected decrease in the selling price of raw pangasius by 1% and the price of soybean meal estimated to decrease by 4%, the price of fingerlings is estimated to reach 55 thousand VND (+20% YoY) thanks to favorable weather restraining the increase in fingerling prices. Meanwhile, the selling price of pangasius is expected to increased slightly by 3% YoY due to the impact of the USD/VND exchange rate increasing by 3% YoY.
- The gross margin of the tilapia segment is estimated to decline by 3 pps YoY to 35% due to an 8% decline in tilapia selling prices, reaching $5.14/kg while raw tilapia prices are expected to decline slightly by 3% YoY thanks to a 4% decrease in soybean meal prices and favorable weather.
- FMC's shrimp segment margin is expected to improve slightly by 1 pps YoY to 14% thanks to the influence of the USD/VND exchange rate and a slight decline in raw shrimp prices by 0.4% when the weather is favorable.
- The forecast decline in the WCI transport index by 5-10% will be a direct support factor for the net profit of ANV and FMC, which mainly export under DAP and CFR conditions.
MSB – PBT in 2025 is projected to fall short of the full-year target
13-01-2026
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: MSB
- Cumulative consolidated PBT for 9M2025 of MSB reached VND 4.8 trillion (-3% YoY), completing 60% of the full-year target (VND 8 trillion). 9M2025 operating results showed several positive highlights driven by (1) solid retail credit growth (+22% YTD) amid generally sluggish recovery across the industry, (2) a sharp increase in the CASA ratio by 140 bps YTD to 27.8%, helping optimize funding costs and expand NIM, and (3) a marked improvement in asset quality.
- We forecast MSB’s consolidated PBT in 2025F to reach nearly VND 6.6 trillion, down 6% YoY. Net interest income growth of 12% YoY (consolidated credit growth of 17.7% YTD, consolidated NIM of 3.5%) contributes to a 3% YoY increase in total operating income, while non-interest income is projected to decline sharply by 19% YoY, mainly due to the absence of one-off gains from the recovery of written-off NPLs (liquidation of collateralized marine vessels) in 2025. Operating expenses and provision expenses in 2025F are expected to increase by 12% and 8% YoY, respectively.
GDA – Accumulating for long-term goals
12-01-2026
: GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- In the first 9 months of 2025 (9M2025), GDA recorded revenue of VND 11.9 trillion (-22% YoY), with galvanized and coated steel sales volume reaching 588 thousand tons (-12% YoY). In response to rising trade remedy risks from importing countries, the company has proactively shifted its order allocation toward the domestic market, achieving domestic sales volume of 414 thousand tons (+60% YoY). This performance allowed GDA to maintain its position as the No. 2 player in the domestic galvanized/coated steel segment, capturing approximately 16% of total domestic coated steel output.
- On the project development front, according to the company’s disclosure, the Phu My steel plant (designed capacity of 1.2 million tons/year) officially commenced construction in December 2025. Phase 1 of the project (300 thousand tons/year capacity) will primarily focus on galvanized and coated steel products, with potential for developing additional industrial steel grades. Commercial operations are expected to begin in the second half of 2027.Given GDA’s solid positioning in the domestic market (No. 2 market share), we believe the incremental output from the new facility is likely to be relatively well absorbed, even in the current competitive environment among coated steel producers in Vietnam.
Vietnam Midstream Oil & Gas: A stable petroleum transport base with an expanding LNG upside
09-01-2026
: PVT, PVP, PDV, GSP, GAS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVT GAS
- We believe that by 2026, Vietnam’s midstream oil & gas segment will maintain a balance between stability and growth. Petroleum transportation continues to play a pillar role in generating the main cash flow base due to its large scale and defensive nature, despite being exposed to the shipping freight rate cycle.
- At the same time, gas transportation and distribution, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), is emerging as a key growth driver within the midstream segment, supported by rapidly rising gas-fired power demand amid a structurally declining domestic gas supply.
- The combination of a stable petroleum transportation base and a growth-oriented gas and LNG segment supports a solid near term foundation for the midstream sector, while expanding the medium to long term growth runway for oil and gas companies over the 2026–2030 period.
Understanding the data center market & Vietnam in the regional context
08-01-2026
: FOX, CMG, FPT
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags: Data center
- Data centers (DCs) are purpose-built facilities designed to house and protect computer systems, servers, storage devices, and other network components. They serve as critical infrastructure for the storage, processing, and safeguarding of enterprise data. DCs are commonly classified along two dimensions: (i) by Uptime Institute standards, which assess fault tolerance, availability, and downtime; and (ii) by scale and operating model.
- The development of a DC from construction to commercial operation typically spans three phases over a period of two to three years. Construction and investment costs for DCs in Vietnam are among the lowest in Asia-Pacific, averaging around USD 6.9 million per MW (according to Cushman & Wakefield), supported by competitive labor, electricity, and land costs.
- According to Cushman & Wakefield’s assessment across 30 markets in 1H2025, Vietnam (Hanoi and HCMC) is classified as an emerging DC market, alongside Manila (Philippines), Brisbane and Canberra (Australia), and Taipei (Taiwan). The combined share of operational capacity held by this group doubled yoy in 1H2025, increasing from 3% to 6%.
Yellow Phosphorus 2026 – Supply Risks and the New Export Tax
07-01-2026
: DGC, PAT
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Phosphorus
- In 2025, export prices of phosphorus for the whole industry recovered slightly, while export volumes of DGC (accounting for 50% of Vietnam’s total capacity) grew more positively than other companies thanks to its large exposure to the Japanese market – where customers are mainly in high-tech industries, especially semiconductor manufacturing.
- For 2026, we expect total industry P4 export volume to decline by 30% YoY, due to: 1/ Significant risks related to environmental issues and mining activities, and 2/ Export tax increasing to 10% (from the current 5%) starting next year, which is highly likely to push many companies (whose main export markets are India and the UAE) to shift sales toward Japan (which enjoys tax incentives) and the domestic market to preserve profit margins. Vietnamese P4 prices are unlikely to increase in non-Japan markets, given the high substitution risk from Kazakhstan’s P4 (typically priced about 30% lower than Vietnam’s).
22-01-2026
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