08-05-2026VNINDEX1915.376.360.33% HNXIndex246.49-1.27-0.51% UPCOM127.33-0.85-0.66% VN302074.06-5.04-0.24% VN1001997.024.540.23% HNX30527.94-2.45-0.46% VNXALL3095.515.790.19% VNX503502.0310.970.31% VNMID2237.715.240.69% VNSML1401.01-6.46-0.46% FRT – Q1/2026 Earnings results: Accelerating through the peak season
08-05-2026
: FRT
: Retailing
: Lan Anh Tran
Tags: FRT
- Net revenue reached VND 15,117 billion (+29.5% YoY), with Long Chau contributing 68.1% (VND 10,302 billion), broadly in line with our expectations. Long Chau maintained strong growth of 29.0% YoY, though showing signs of moderating versus previous quarters, reflecting a normalization toward a more sustainable growth base amid tougher comparisons. Meanwhile, FPT Shop recorded VND 4,815 billion in revenue (+30.8% YoY), marking a clear acceleration following its recovery since 2H25.
- PBT in Q1 reached VND 472 billion, equivalent to 30.4% of the company’s full-year target and 24.1% of our forecast. NPAT-MI came in at VND 287 billion (+71.1% YoY), exceeding our expectations by 18%, with net margin improving to 1.9% (+0.5 ppts YoY). Long Chau remained the key driver, which sustained a strong net margin of 2.6% (+0.3 ppts YoY), while FPT Shop improved operational efficiency and returned to profitability from a loss in the same period last year, supported by optimized operating costs, with net margin reaching 0.3% (+0.8 ppts YoY).
- FRT’s Q1 results were broadly in line with our revenue forecast, while earnings outperformed expectations. However, this does not materially change our full-year 2026 outlook, as the strong Q1 earnings base is expected to offset weaker profitability in Q2, which is typically the low season for Apple smartphone demand. Accordingly, we maintain our 2026 forecast for net revenue of VND 60,253 billion (+18.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI/EPS of VND 1,163 billion (+46.3% YoY) and VND 6,829. We also maintain our target price of VND 185,500/share (2026F/2027F forward P/E of 21.3x/14.8x), implying a BUY recommendation with expected return of 27% based on the closing price as of May 7, 2026.
Draft amendment to Circular 22/2019 of the SBV and cooling down interest rates: Distant water cannot put out a nearby fire
08-05-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Khoa Bùi
Tags: SBV Policy interest rate
- The SBV's new draft Circular has a notable positive point: it brings capital adequacy ratios and liquidity safety ratios closer to Basel III standards, typically the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) and the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR).
- However, the SBV is also tightening the LDR through a new ratio called the CDR (with stricter standards), which may force commercial banks to complete Basel III standards soon, and the issue of system liquidity has not yet been resolved immediately.
- The amendment to Circular 22 also provides a new framework for future monetary policy management. Accordingly, the SBV must control the fund rate to control exchange rates and inflation, instead of cotrollong the current interest rate corridor.
- Will this draft Circular cool down the interest rate level? The answer is that it could potentially lower them. However, the question remains:is the SBV prepared to control the base interest rate and input interest rates yet? Have most commercial banks in the system reached Basel III standards? These are questions that need to be clarified. Meanwhile, internal and external system constraints will still make it difficult for interest rates to drop quickly.
PVS – Q1/2026 results: Margins reached new highs
07-05-2026
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- In Q1/2026, PVS reported strong results with consolidated revenue of more than VND 8.7 tn (+45% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 416 bn (+25% YoY), completing 26% of its revenue target and 53% of its profit target for the year. The results were supported by a strong project backlog and solid execution progress.
- Key domestic projects such as Block B – O Mon, Lac Da Vang, and Su Tu Trang Phase 2B continued to make good progress. At the same time, PVS expanded its offshore wind presence across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
- For FY2026, we forecast revenue of VND 39,454 bn (+21% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 2,330 bn (+28% YoY; +20% YoY excluding provision reversals). Using a 50:50 blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA valuation methods, we set a 12-month target price of VND 48,700/share, implying an expected return of 25% based on the closing price on May 7, 2026. We maintain a BUY recommendation on PVS.
POW – Business Results Q1/2026: High Qc allocation for Nhon Trach 3&4
06-05-2026
: POW
: Power
:
Tags:
- PV Power's revenue increased by 57% YoY, and profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 147% YoY. The main growth driver comes from the Nhon Trach 3&4 (NT3&4) factory starting to contribute output and revenue.
- POW's actual generated volume (Qm) increased by 33% YoY, of which NT3&4 contributed 15% to the total output, reaching 874 million kWh. The Qm of Nhon Trach 1 and Nhon Trach 2 increased by 154% and 59% YoY, respectively, offsetting a 10% YoY decrease in the output of Ca Mau 1&2.
- The Company's gross profit margin improved by 4.6 pps YoY (reaching 14.6%) thanks to NT3&4 being allocated a high contracted volume (Qc), reaching 1.4 billion kWh, equivalent to a Qc/Qm ratio of 163%.
- POW's Q1/2026 business results exceeded our expectations, completing 102%/165% of analysts' revenue and NPAT-MI forecasts. We are revising our forecasts and will update them in the latest report. Currently, we maintain our ACCUMULATION recommendation on POW stock with a target price of 15,700 VND/share. However, investors should pay attention to the risk that the business results and valuation of POW stocks may be negatively impacted by prolonged hostilities in the Middle East, pushing fuel prices to high levels.
MWG – Solidifying the leading market position
05-05-2026
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: MWG
- MWG’s Q1-2026 results significantly exceeded expectations, with net revenue reaching VND 46,462 bn (+28.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 2,715 bn (+75.6% YoY). The strong performance was driven by robust margin expansion across both core chains. Thanks to low-cost inventory, TGDD & DMX benefited from higher selling prices amid the global ICT supply shock (RAM and chip shortages). Meanwhile, BHX delivered better-than-expected margin improvement as it deepened penetration into rural Northern and Central regions.
- We maintain our forecast MWG’s 2026/27F net revenue at VND 180,085/201,836 bn (+15.1%/+12.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 8,915/10,222 bn (+26.7%/+14.7% YoY). MWG’s share price corrected ~11.0% in Q1-2026, trading at a trailing P/E of 15.0x and forward P/E of 13.8x / 12.1x for 2026/27F — well below its 5-year average of 20.5x and the industry average of 23.9x. This implies attractive valuation relative to its growth outlook (>20% YoY). We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 103,100 per share and a cash dividend of VND 2,000 per share, based on the closing price as of May 4th, 2026.
SIP – Positive results from IP land leasing activities
04-05-2026
: SIP
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- SIP recorded stable business results in Q1/2026, with net revenue and NPAT-MI reaching VND2.1 trillion (+12% YoY, -6% QoQ) and VND334 billion (-5% YoY, -6% QoQ), respectively. Sales showed signs of recovery, as the company began recording large lease contracts in the first quarter (with 35 hectares newly leased, equivalent to 52% of the total expected leased area in 2026).
- At the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, the company shared its development orientation for existing industrial parks to ensure they are ready for leasing in subsequent phases, as well as positive expectations for land leasing prospects for the year (60 hectares of industrial park land to be newly leased, +197% YoY).
FMC – Business Results Q1/2026 - In line with the Company's prudent business strategy
29-04-2026
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q1/2026 reached VND 1,399 billion (-30% YoY), primarily due to a 30% YoY decline in the shrimp segment as both volume and selling prices fell. Specifically, shrimp sales volume reached 4,491 tons (-27% YoY) with an average selling price of VND 305,000/kg (-5% YoY). The sharp decline in volume was driven by the Company's proactive strategy to limit exports to the U.S. market while awaiting the results of the POR19 anti-dumping duty review.
- Gross profit margin improved slightly to 7.2% (from 6.4% in the same period last year), driven by an increase in the shrimp segment's gross margin from 6.2% to 6.7%. This improvement resulted from raw shrimp prices decreasing faster than selling prices (-8% YoY vs. -5% YoY). The SG&A expense-to-revenue ratio decreased to 4.68% as selling expenses dropped sharply by 56% YoY, thanks to lower freight costs following the scale-back in U.S. exports. Consequently, profit before tax reached VND 51.3 billion (+41.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI stood at VND 40.8 billion (+37% YoY).
- While Q1/2026 results were not yet fully robust, we expect export activities to recover starting from Q2/2026 following the POR19 results. Accordingly, we forecast full-year 2026 revenue to reach VND 8,649 billion (+6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 392 billion (+7% YoY), excluding a potential tax reversal from POR20 of approximately VND 150 billion.
- We maintain a BUY recommendation for FMC stock with a target price of VND 50,200/share for the medium and long term. The outlook from Q2/2026 onwards will be supported by the resumption of exports to the U.S. following positive POR19 results, a push into high-margin value-added products (breaded and battered shrimp), and an increasing self-sufficiency rate in shrimp larvae, which helps stabilize and improve profit margins.
NT2– Q1/2026 business performance: Calm before the storm
28-04-2026
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- Bottom-line performance: Net Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (NPAT-MI) surged 386% YoY, though it saw a 57% QoQ decline.
- Margin expansion: Gross Profit Margin (GPM) expanded by 6.9 pps YoY, driven by (1) robust dispatch volumes, and (2) a 78% YoY reduction in depreciation expenses. However, on a sequential basis, GPM contracted by 10.2 pps due to the absence of one-off revenue recorded in Q4/2025.
- Fuel costs: Average fuel prices are estimated to have risen by 2% YoY and 6% QoQ, reflecting heightened Middle East conflict.
Smoothing interest rates and amending Circular No. 22/2019/TT-NHNN of the State Bank of Vietnam
24-04-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Khoa Bùi
Tags:
- New signals from the SBV's policy to cool down the deposit interest rate (primary market) level are quite positive. However, reducing short-term interest rates will not have much impact on M3 source issuance interest rate flows (Certificates of Deposit (CDs), Financial Institution Bonds (FIBonds)), which continue to rise and affect the COF of commercial banks.
- So why do long-term interest rate flows remain anchored at high levels? Because in the lending structure of the banking system, long-term lending cannot be balanced by deposits from the State Treasury (ST) or immediate measures related to deposit behavior, such as lowering market 1 interest rates.
- Only the issuance of CDs and FIBonds can ensure long-term funding sources; furthermore, these M3 funding sources are not subject to deposit interest rate caps, so they are not considered a violation of the agreement at the SBV's meeting on April 9, 2026.
- Therefore, in the current context, the approach will be similar to 2023, which is to loosen Circular No. 22/2019/TT-NHNN (including both LDR and SFL ratios) so that money can circulate faster within the system, but long-term deposit interest rates to balance long-term loans in the system still depend on M3 issuance sources.
SCS – Profit growth slows due to Middle East conflict impact
24-04-2026
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- In Q1-FY26, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 272 bn (+2% YoY) and VND 173 bn (+2% YoY), respectively, completing 21%/23% of the annual plan. International and domestic cargo volumes reached 47 thousand tons (-6% YoY) and 14 thousand tons (-4% YoY), respectively. Overall, SCS's Q1-FY26 Result was in line with our projections (revenue and NPAT were forecasted to reach VND 258 bn and VND 165 bn, respectively, 5% higher than our revenue and NPAT projections).
- The impacts of the conflict in the Middle East are short-term as airlines have begun to resume operations at the end of March 2026. We maintain our projections for 2026, with net revenue and NPAT reaching VND 1,314 bn (+10% YoY) and VND 811 bn (+8% YoY), respectively.
- In the long term, SCS's growth prospects depend on the selection results for the operator at Long Thanh International Airport (LTIA). Currently, the expected operation timeline is in 2027, and there is no new information regarding the selection of the operator at LTIA. Therefore, we performed a business valuation based on two scenarios: Not selected (scenario 1) and Selected (scenario 2) for LTIA. Using the FCFF method, the target prices for the two scenarios are VND 53,600/share and VND 118,200/share. We recommend OBSERVE.
LHG – Continuing the Ready-Built Factory Development Plan
23-04-2026
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- In Q1, LHG recorded revenue of 176 billion VND (-58% YoY, +45% QoQ), derived from Ready-Built Factories (RBF) and industrial zone (IZ) land leasing. Gross profit recorded positive results, reaching 97 billion VND (+99% QoQ, -31% YoY) – in line with our projections. During the period, LHG recorded extraordinary revenue (48 billion VND) from land compensation income; consequently, the company's net profit after tax (NPAT) exceeded estimates, reaching 112 billion VND (+2% YoY, +141% QoQ).
- The company has set a relatively conservative business target for 2026, with revenue and NPAT reaching 728 billion VND (-4% YoY) and 166 billion VND (-43% YoY), respectively. Project development progress: For the 2026-27 period, we observe that the company will continue to focus on RBF projects (multi-story factory projects at Long Hau 1 & 3 IZs), thanks to stable cash flow and customer interest. IZ projects either lack available land for lease (Long Hau 3 IZ, Phase 1) or are in the early stages of development (Long Hau 3, Phase 2).
Steel Industry – CBAM Certificate Price for Q1 2026 and Key Considerations
22-04-2026
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Limited short-term impact due to quota barriers: Although CBAM compliance costs (estimated at EUR 87–94 per ton) may reduce the price competitiveness of Vietnamese steel, the primary challenge in the EU market remains safeguard measures. The EU is expected to further tighten restrictions by cutting duty-free steel import quotas by 47%, applying a 50% tariff on volumes exceeding quotas, and enforcing stricter origin controls.
- Green transformation as a long-term necessity: Compliance with CBAM is an essential requirement for regaining export market share in the EU over the medium to long term. Vietnamese steel producers need to accelerate investments in cleaner production technologies, standardize emissions measurement systems, and prioritize accurate emissions reporting. These steps will help minimize the cost burden of purchasing CBAM certificates and reduce the risk of penalties due to incomplete or inaccurate data.
08-05-2026
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