HSG – Net income grew impressively despite COVID-19

1H/FY19-20 results

In 1H/FY19-20, HSG’s profit growth was strong despite lower selling volume. HSG’s net income increased by 228% and reached VND 382 billion, equivalent to 96% of its annual net income plan. The surge in its net income was supported by HRC prices, which increased by 23% from USD 420/ton in October/2020 to USD 518/ton in late-January/2020. Regarding selling volume, HSG sold roughly 700 thousand tons of products, of which 27 thousand tons were plastic pipes (+14% YoY). Social-distancing for COVID-19 had a limited negative impact on HSG’s selling volume, as coated steel and steel pipes sales volume decreased by 5% and 13% respectively. In April, its selling volume was still stable and similar compared to March/2020.

HSG expects to earn VND 200 billion in the remaining of FY19-20, of which VND 100-120 billion will be gained in 3Q/FY19-20.

VCB - Results Update Report 1Q2020

Despite the anticipated slowdown due to the negative impact of Covid-19, we expect the bank’s growth to recover quickly upon an economic recovery. We believe that its sector-leading position, solid balance sheet, and conservative approach (both in the past and during the virus situation), would allow the bank to withstand the current storm.

With a lower 2020 earnings growth forecast and less favorable conditions in the stock market, we revise VCB’s target price to VND85,000, which is 10% lower than the latest in our 2020 Strategy report (VND95,000). Coupled with the plan of a cash dividend at VND800/share (which has been shared by the bank that will be kept until further official instruction by SBV), this target price translates to an upside of 14% from the closing price on 12 May 2020. We thereby have an ACCUMULATE recommendation on the stock.

SBV urges more decisive and timely implementation of forbearance measures

We maintain our view on credit growth and NIM movement. Regarding credit, we do not expect a too significantly higher credit quota considering SBV’s view to maintain credit quality of the entire sector, a long with the need to control inflation. As such, we maintain out forecast that credit growth limits to banks would rise by 2-3ppt versus the initial quotas given by the SBV at the beginning of this year. Accordingly, credit growth at each bank under our watch list might reach from 13% to 15% by end of the year (except for BID and CTG who might find their growth below this range). Regarding NIM, we still forecast it to remain the same or slightly decrease for most banks, mainly due to a stronger downside caused by loan forbearances than the potential upside by policy rate cuts. Overall, we expect that bank’s net interest income would continue to slowdown further since 2Q. Amongst those, state-owned banks is likely to witness a stronger negative impact on interest income than their private counterparts, due to their more proactive roles in cutting lending rates or tolerate loans to support distressed customers, as per specific request by SBV.

Foreign Investors Net Bought G-bonds in April

There are noticeable changes in Vietnam’s bond markets in the first four months of the year. In the primary market, Vietnam State Treasury (VST) has struggled to complete its issuance plan due to a significant drop in demand. Meanwhile, it’s likely a turning point in the secondary market in which foreign investors have turned buyers in April after two consecutive months of net selling in February and March. Bond yields are retreating.

Novaland update

Revenue and profit guidance: The company has not changed its profit target for whole year, although the overall businesses have been affected by the Covid-19 epidemic. Accordingly, revenue and net profit will be VND 14,000 billion (+ 27% YoY) and VND 3,300 billion (-4% YoY), respectively. The company plans to hand over a total of 4,500 units during this year.

MSN – Q1/2020 result: profits decline despite revenue doubling due to the Vincommerce acquisition

In Q1/2020, MSN’s consolidated net revenue increased 116%, mainly due to the consolidation of Vincommerce (VCM) and strong growth from Masan Consumer Holdings (MCH).

BMP – Solid core business is unaffected

1Q/2020 update

BMP sold 24,330 tons of plastic pipes during the first quarter of 2020, 8.9% higher YoY. Its 1Q2020 revenue and NPAT came at VND 1,020 and VND 102 billion respectively, 9.4% and 12.1% higher YoY. The growth came from a newly exploited market, which is the irrigation in the Mekong Delta. As per BMP’s management, the long drought in the area has caused a rise in the demand for new irrigation systems, of which plastic pipe is a common component.

VSC – Q1 2020 Earnings Soared Despite COVID-19

VSC has reported Q1 2020 financial results with total revenue of VND 409 Bn, which was slightly down 3.5% from the one-year ago quarter. On the contrary, Q1 2020 earnings jumped 41.8% YoY to VND 57 Bn.

Nam Long Group (HSX: NLG) update

Nam Long set total revenue and profit targets in 2020 of VND 1,520 billion (-40% YoY) and VND 820 billion (-15% YoY), respectively. The decline in revenue is due to the fact that the major revenue sources come from joint ventures. Hence it is not consolidated as revenue but only as the profit shared from the JVs in its income statement. Specifically, NLG expects to record a VND 620 billion gain as financial revenue, thanks to the transfer of its stakes in two residential projects in Dong Nai, namely Paragon and Waterfront during Q3/2020.

The Covid-19 epidemic negatively affected the Loc Troi Group

The demand of imported rice from other countries increased. That helped Vietnam's export rice prices to reach its highest level in the last 16 months. This partly helped LTG’s share price increase in April. However, the contribution of exported rice to the Group's total revenue and profit is relatively small. Therefore, we believe that the good news about the country's rice export has been reflected in the current price of LTG. At the moment, the Covid-19 is still badly affecting agricultural businesses and is expected to last until the third quarter. Therefore, we believe that both the first and second quarter’ results will be lower than the results of the last year.

The rice segment has been operating more effectively, however, the decrease in the sale of the pesticide and seed segments will not allow LTG to improve its results in the first half of 2020. We expect that the demand for agricultural products and the trade between countries will be better in the last six months of the year.

SCS – Update on Q1 2020 Results

SCS’ Q1 2020 NPAT climbed 8.6% YoY on the back of healthy international air freight growth, reaching VND 121 Bn. This result was rather in line with our expectation, although we expected a lower volume throughput for the quarter.

VHC – Update on 1Q2020 results and 2020 plan

The pandemic has caused export prices to continue to decline after having adjusted sharply throughout 2019. In return, thanks to a boost in export volume, 1Q2020 revenue only decreased slightly. However, 1Q2020 NPAT dropped 50% YoY mainly due to a sharp decline in gross profits.

2Q will be the most difficult period for the company's export due to the US food service segment (accounting for 60% of consumption in the US) having to stop operating to prevent the pandemic contagion. Increasing consumption in the retail segment may contribute a small part in curbing the decline in total sales. According to VASEP, export volume to the US in 2Q may decrease by about 45-50% YoY. The recovery of the Chinese market will be the saver. However, the average export price may decline because the export price to the Chinese market is lower than to the US and EU. Pangasius export prices may decrease by 31% while the export volume may  increase by 26% YoY because 2Q 2019 was the period when the export volume was lower than the annual average. The situation  was resulted from the  high stockpiles of inventories in the US and changes in China’s seafood quality control regulations at that time. 2Q2020 gross profit margin is estimated at 12%, down sharply from 21% in the same period in 2019. Accordingly, 2Q revenue is forecasted at VND 935 billion, down 54% YoY and PAT is VND 83 billion, down 76% YoY. Excluding profit from divestments in 2Q2019, 2Q2020 NPAT would drop 73% YoY.

The stock price of VHC, after a sharp decline in March, has rebounded since the beginning of April as investors believe that the pandemic in Vietnam is under control. We estimate the one-year fair value for VHC to be VND 30,500 / share. Considering the possibility that