15-10-2025VNINDEX1757.95-3.11-0.18% HNXIndex276.120.790.29% UPCOM112.32-0.83-0.73% VN302009.64-4.05-0.20% VN1001937.171.920.10% HNX30607.031.590.26% VNXALL3035.113.060.10% VNX503356.432.360.07% VNMID2532.1620.240.81% VNSML1559.77-3.75-0.24% Fertilizer Industry – Impact of Gas Prices on the Fertilizer Industry
06-03-2025
: DCM, DPM
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Monitoring world gas prices is an important factor to forecast urea fertilizer prices in Vietnam, while Brent oil prices play a decisive role in forecasting domestic gas prices for urea fertilizer production. If world gas prices tend to decrease, the increase in world urea fertilizer prices in the short term will also be restrained.
- Domestic urea fertilizer prices are greatly affected by world fertilizer prices, with a correlation of up to 0.9 from 2019-2024.
- The world price of urea is closely related to the price of natural gas, because gas costs account for about 70-80% of the total cost of raw materials. When gas prices increase, urea producers will adjust the selling price accordingly. The correlation coefficient between TTF gas prices and urea fertilizer prices in regions such as India, the Black Sea, the Middle East, Egypt, and Indonesia is all over 0.78 in the period 2013-March 2025.
- It is forecasted that the gradual decline in TTF gas prices may put pressure on the increase in fertilizer prices in the near future.
- Companies like DCM and DPM use Brent crude oil as a key reference for tracking input gas prices. This is because they purchase gas from PVN at prices determined based on Brent and FO, rather than international gas prices like many global companies. As a result, the gross profit margins of Vietnamese fertilizer companies tend to fluctuate more sharply compared to global firms, especially during the 2022-2023 period.
MSB – Positive financial results in Q4/2024 with expanded NIM and significant increase in income from bad debt recovery
05-03-2025
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- PBT Q4/24 exceeded VND 2 trillion, showing outstanding growth (+65% QoQ and +230% YoY) compared to the low base of Q3/24 and the same period last year, driven by (1) a significant NIM (Q) expansion to 4.2% (+84 bps QoQ, +26 bps YoY), (2) credit growth in Q4/24 reaching 18.9% YTD (Q3/24: 14.2% YTD), with the main contribution coming from retail lending, and (3) non-interest income sources, except for fee income which decreased by 15%, showing better results than the previous quarter.
- PBT for the full year 2024 reached VND 6.9 trillion, an 18% YoY growth, and met the previously set target (VND 6.8 trillion), thanks to (1) a 45 bps YoY NIM expansion, positive credit growth of 18.9%, and (2) income from bad debt recovery activities exceeding VND 1.3 trillion (8 times the same period last year).
- Asset quality improved as the net NPL formation was just over VND 200 billion (the lowest level since Q3/22), while Group 2 loans decreased by VND 1.1 trillion, suggesting that part of Group 2 loans may have been backed to standard loans. On-balance-sheet NPLs decreased by VND 200 billion compared to the previous quarter, bringing the NPL ratio (for customer loans) down by 30 bps QoQ to 2.6%.
- For 2025, MSB has set a target NPBT of VND 8 trillion (+16% YoY), a lower growth rate compared to 2024 (+18% YoY), likely due to increased investment costs for digital transformation, while income sources are expected to grow positively.
MG cars – Success story in 2024 and room for growth in reference with the Thai market
04-03-2025
: HAX
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- MG had an extremely explosive 2024 with auto sales growing +242% YoY, reaching 13,117 units, far exceeding the overall growth of the automotive industry (+2.5% YoY, according to VAMA), which has been in a gloomy period for the past 5 years.
- The secret to MG's success throughout 2024 lies in three proper strategies: (1) choosing the tier 2-3 provinces as the target market, (2) a low-pricing strategy, (3) building a dense network of showrooms, creeping nationwide with 3S standards, (4) supporting distributors to create a distribution advantage compared to other competitors.
- Despite the outstanding successes in 2024, we believe that MG's growth rate will gradually slow down in the future compared to the 2024 high base (+242% YoY) due to the challenging auto landscape and MG’s market share rising to the limit level (4.0%, reference from MG's most successful market – Thailand). In particular, the competitive advantage created from the sacrifice of MG's profit margin is hard to maintain for a long time, in addition to other giants entering the market such as BYD, Vinfast, Lynk&Co, Wulling... are also having competitive strategies in terms of pricing/promotion policies.
- Regarding HAX - the stocks on our watchlist are related to the MG car story. We think HAX will also slow down the growth rate related to MG car distribution, similar to MG brand’s total sales growth and HAX’s market sharein MG distribution, reaching the limit. (~32%)
- We doubt the ability to maintain the margin of MG car distribution at a higher level than the industry average that HAX is currently receiving (2023-24 period), implying that this may be a downside risk for HAX stock. We recommend that investors should closely monitor this factor for 2025 outlook.
CTG – Improvement in Credit Demand and Asset Quality Solidifies Positive Growth Outlook for 2025
03-03-2025
: CTG
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: CTG
- 4Q24 Pre-Tax Profit (PBT) Reaches VND 12.2 Trillion (+59% YoY), Full-Year 2024 PBT at VND 31.7 Trillion (+27% YoY). While total operating income grew in line with net interest income and credit growth (16.9%), increasing by 15% YoY in 4Q24 and 16% YoY for the full year, a sharp 45% YoY decline in credit costs in 4Q24 was the key driver of CTG’s PBT growth for both the quarter and the full year 2024.
- We assess CTG’s 4Q24 financial performance as positive, with a significant improvement in return on equity (ROE) efficiency, supported by the following factors: (1) asset quality continues its favorable improvement trend, aligning with our previous expectations, alongside a reduction in credit costs; (2) effective debt recovery and resolution based on a centralized debt handling model; (3) an expanded retail credit market share with competitive interest rates; and (4) strict control over operating expenses.
- We update our 2025 forecast with an upward adjustment of 19% in projected PBT compared to our previous estimate, reflecting stronger-than-expected credit growth potential and lower credit costs, underpinned by a more positive asset quality outlook following a prolonged period of prudent provisioning. The projected 2025 PBT is expected to reach VND 41.2 trillion, representing a 30% YoY increase.
- We reiterate our BUY recommendation for CTG, with an updated target price of VND 49,000 per share, a 9% upward adjustment from the previous target price, corresponding to a total expected return of 19%.
SCS –Well-positioned to become a cargo terminal operator at Long Thanh Airport
28-02-2025
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- Long Thanh International Airport will have two cargo terminals under component projects 3 and 4, owned by two different investors: Airports Corporation of Vietnam (Upcom: ACV) and the Ministry of Transport.
- Saigon Cargo Services Corporation (HSX: SCS) is interested in cargo terminal No. 01 of component project 3 at LTIA. Based on international rules, we assess that it is feasible for SCS to become an operator here.
AGG – Enterprises have a potential land fund but need time to realize revenue
27-02-2025
: AGG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: AGG
- Business results in 2024 recorded growth as the company continues to hand over the remaining products at Westgate (Binh Duong) and Standard projects, when the Southern Real Estate market began to show signs of recovery, with revenue and NPAT-MI increasing by 50.83% and 69.7% YoY, respectively. However, in 2025 business results are expected to decline to VND 800 billion (-58% YoY) in revenue, mainly from the handover of the remaining products of The Song, Westgate and Standard projects.
- The Gio Riverside project is a growth engine for AGG in the period from 2027-2029 with total revenue from handover estimated at VND 7,000 billion.
- AGG owns a potential land fund in Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces are the premise for the company's long-term growth. However, we realized that the company needed more time to complete the legality, implementation and revenue realisation.
HDB - Underperform Q4 2024 business results due to a sudden decline in asset quality
26-02-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Consolidated PBT for Q4/24 reached over VND 4 trillion, lower than the previous forecast (VND 4,600 billion), driven by (1) provision expenses up 68% QoQ and 47% YoY after a sharp rise in net NPL formation to VND 1,900 billion, (2) operating expenses up 20% QoQ and 35% YoY as the bank increased staff cost.
- HDB's Q4/24 business results were generally unfavorable as (1) a sudden rebound in other income from credit activities offset the decline in average lending yield, and (2) asset quality unexpectedly deteriorated and could remain a concern in 2025 due to a sharp surge in group 2 loans. These developments pose downside risks to NIM projections and credit costs for 2025.
- For 2025, HDB targets continued growth in PBT (around 25% YoY) through expected higher credit growth compared to 2024, alongside continued control of NPL ratio under 2%.
- The target price for HDB shares is currently VND 24,300. We will update the 2025 projections and provide a more detailed assessment in upcoming reports.
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE FEB 2025: STABILIZE TOWARDS THE END OF THE MONTH
25-02-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Net withdrawal was the dominant trend in the open market in February due to a large amount of maturing from the forward contract channel. From 01-21/02/25, the SBV net withdrew about VND38.0 trillion in the open market.
- Overnight lending rates in the interbank market increased sharply in the first half of the month but then stabilized. On 21/02, the VND overnight lending rate was 3.98%/year, unchanged from the end of January.
- The USD has not been able to increase since Trump took office and has had a similar adjustment rhythm to the Trump 1.0 period. Uncertainty in tariff policy will remain high while tariff plans will likely be finalized in the coming months. Along with that, the Fed's cautious policy stance on implementing further interest rate cuts will likely continue to support the US dollar.
- The most notable development in the USD/VND exchange rate in the past month was the SBV's continuous adjustment of the central exchange rate and changes in the USD buying and selling prices. This implies that the SBV is choosing a more market-oriented and flexible approach to exchange rate management, which can be considered a measure to preserve foreign exchange reserves.
- Some directions for monetary policy management in 2025:
- The SBV has raised the credit growth target to 16%, higher than the 15.1% increase in 2024.
- The Government's loosening of the inflation target to 4.5-5.0% may indirectly affect the direction of money supply/credit management in 2025.
- The management of interest rate and exchange rate is considered a challenging task
KBC – Unlocking the potential of existing projects
24-02-2025
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: KBC
- In 2024, KBC recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 2.78 trillion (-51% YoY) and VND 1.28 trillion (-65% YoY), respectively. The weak performance was mainly due to the decline in revenue from land and infrastructure leasing in industrial parks, which reached only VND 815 billion (-77% YoY). During the period, the company recorded lease revenue from an area of 33 hectares (-80% YoY).
- For 2025, with bottlenecks in land clearance being resolved, we expect the company to achieve relatively positive revenue. The net profit attributable to the parent company could reach VND 2.8 trillion (+557% YoY) under the scenario where approximately 180 hectares of industrial park land is delivered, mainly in Nam Son Hap Linh and Hung Yen Industrial Cluster. The projected EPS for 2025 is VND 3,700.
- In the long term, in addition to focusing on industrial parks that had previously received investment approvals, KBC plans to expand its business with newly approved industrial parks (Trang Due 03, Kim Thanh), increasing the total leasable land area to nearly 2,000 hectares.
- Using the Sum-of-the-parts method, we maintain the target price for KBC stock at VND40,600/share (Upside +36%, compared to the closing price on 24/02/2025), which is equivalent to the BUY recommendation for the long-term target. KBC continues to be the preferred IP company in 2025, as the company has readily available land for lease and continues to attract interest from FDI enterprises, particularly Chinese companies, in the coming period.
Aviation industry – The cargo terminal segment is an attractive playground for logistics companies
21-02-2025
: ACV
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- The field of cargo operations at airports possesses a strong competitive advantage due to high barriers to entry, good negotiation capacity with both customers and suppliers, and a low level of competition in the industry. Therefore, this field consistently enjoys high profit margins and remains highly attractive to logistics companies.
- In the long term, the profit margin of the cargo terminal operation segment in Vietnam has significant room for expansion, driven by increased cargo traffic from the boom in cross-border e-commerce and the policy of developing free trade zones in Da Nang, Cai Mep – Thi Vai, and Hai Phong, as well as optimizing operating costs through the application of modern technology
US-China strategic confrontation reshapes the global supply chain landscape
20-02-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- US-China tensions reshape the global supply chain landscape
- China’s response strategy through export diversification and FDI shapes global supply chains
Fertilizer Industry – A Perspective on Famous Mergers in the Fertilizer Industry
19-02-2025
: DCM, DPM, BFC
: Fertilizer
:
Tags:
- M&A is a useful strategy for fertilizer enterprises to expand their scale, improve production efficiency and competitiveness in the market.
- Notably, the type of fertilizer a company produces significantly impacts the execution price of an M&A transaction, as determined by the EV/EBITDA ratio. Companies producing Potash fertilizers are typically valued at the highest average EV/EBITDA multiples, while those producing Phosphate and NPK fertilizers have lower transaction value/EBITDA ratios, with Urea fertilizer producers having the lowest valuations
- Comparing the financial ratio of merged enterprises in the world, we found that the net profit margin and gross margin of the Potassium fertilizer business enterprise were the highest, followed by NPK and Urea fertilizers and finally the phosphorus fertilizer business.
06-03-2025
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