16-10-2025VNINDEX1763.845.890.34% HNXIndex276.730.610.22% UPCOM112.50.180.16% VN302013.834.190.21% VN1001945.518.340.43% HNX30608.31.270.21% VNXALL3048.0412.930.43% VNX503369.8513.420.40% VNMID2554.222.040.87% VNSML1563.854.080.26% Forecast changes in the VN30 and VNFIN LEAD for Q1/2025 and Update on the Construction & management rules for the HOSE-Index Version 4.0
08-01-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags:
- The VN30 index will see changes in its component stocks: LPB will be added, while POW will be removed. Accordingly, we estimate that funds tracking this index will buy 19.5 million LPB shares and sell 3.2 million POW shares during this restructuring period.
- The VNFIN LEAD index will not see any changes in its component stocks. The only ETF tracking the VNFIN LEAD index has recorded a performance of 19.6% in 2024.
- The updated Construction and Management Rules for the HOSE Index Version 4.0 include several improvements regarding liquidity requirements and the quality of component stocks.
Food hygiene and safety standards in Vietnam's grocey retail industry – Seen from the story of Walmart
07-01-2025
: MWG, MSN
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- We believe that, for grocery retail, especially fresh products, "food safety and hygiene" is the core for attracting/increasing the customer life cycle in chain stores, thereby being a prerequisite for replicating the model.
- Therefore, the great success of Walmart (the largest grocery retail system in the United States with a market share of ~25%) is contributed to the good control of food safety and hygiene issues based on the Walmart Food Safety Standards established by the chain itself.
- We recognize that the development of separate food safety inspection centers with strict processes such as Walmart, is necessary to generate sustainable revenue in the long term of grocery retail chains in Vietnam.
TAL - Enterprise with potential land fund in the Northern region
06-01-2025
: VDS
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- Taseco Land Investment Jsc (Upcom: TAL) is a subsidiary of Taseco Group Jsc (unlisted). From 2021, the Company promotes the development of land funds in the North (including tier-I and II markets) in the form of bidding/auction to become the primary investor of the project, thereby ensuring a clean land fund (~90 hectares of land for residentail real estate and 223 hectares of industrial park) for long-term growth.
- Most of the business's assets are inventory, including projects under construction and planned to open for sale in the period 2024-2025. In which, the projects with the highest proportion include Central Riverside and Nghi Son Central Park urban areas (Thanh Hoa), high-rise housing projects at Lot A3/CT2 and office buildings at Lot B3-CC2A (Hanoi).
- TAL stock is trading at a P/B of 1.9x, which is equivalent to the industry average, while the profitability is high (ROA and ROE of 7% and 19%, respectively) compared to the industry average. Along with a clean land fund and located in potential markets, we think that this is a real estate business that can pay attention in the near future.
DXG – Presales value in 2025 is expected to increase from DXH Riverside project
03-01-2025
: DXG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags:
- In 2025, sales are estimated at VND 9,947 billion, mainly from two projects: 1/ Gem Sky World (VND 1,530 billion, with an average selling price of VND 25 million/m²), 2/ Datxanhhomes Riverside (VND 7,907 billion, with an average price of VND 85 million/m²).
- Revenue and profit after profit are estimated for 2025 to reach VND 2,068 billion (-57% YoY) and VND 205 billion (+43% YoY), respectively, mainly from the handover of Gem Sky World and brokerage revenue of VND 460 billion (+10% YoY).
- Using the RNAV method, we offer a target price of VND 22,200/share, equivalent to a total expected return of 42% compared to the closing price on January 3, 2025. However, investors should be aware of the risks of: 1/ Lack of cash flow for project development and 2/ Slower than expected sales progress; when investing in this enterprise.
The 2024 amended Pharmaceutical Law introduces positive changes, but its impact is expected to materialize in the medium and long term (minimal effects in 2025)
02-01-2025
: IMP, DBD
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- The 2024 amended Pharmaceutical Law introduces notable improvements compared to the 2016 version on 5 key areas: state policies towards the pharmaceutical sector; new regulations for participants in the industry (foreign-invested enterprises, pharmaceutical workforce); codification of the rights and responsibilities of entities operating in new business models (pharmacy chains, online drug sales); simplification of administrative procedures for new registrations, renewals, modifications, and additions to drug circulation licenses; and the addition of several measures to regulate drug pricing.
- These new regulations aim to: transform the pharmaceutical industry into a spearhead sector, encourage research and development activities, and technology transfer; prioritize high-quality domestically produced medicines; establish a legal framework for new business models; reduce administrative burdens for enterprises which enable fast market access for drugs and save resources for pharmaceutical companies to invest in other areas; stabilize drug prices, ensuring public access to medicines at reasonable costs.
- We see growth potential for domestic companies that have production lines meeting high standards (EU-GMP or equivalent). These companies, capable of executing "quality upgrades," will expand profits in the future. Meanwhile, the impact on pharmacy chains is expected to be minimal.
- Although the impact of the 2024 amended Pharmaceutical Law is positive, we believe its effects in 2025 will be limited, as it will take time to translate the law's provisions into guidance circulars and decrees.
Asian currencies are struggling under the pressure of the rising US dollar
31-12-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- With the conclusion of the interest rate normalization phase, the Fed embarks on a new path to balance growth objectives and inflation control
- Asian currencies are struggling under the pressure of the rising US dollar
Fertilizer industry – Domesitc fertilizer selling prices are expected to decrease slightly compared to the world selling price in 2025
30-12-2024
: DCM, DPM, BFC
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Domestic fertilizer selling prices are expected to decrease according to the downward trend of world fertilizer prices. However, we expect domestic fertilizer prices to fall lower than world fertilizer prices, specifically, domestic Urea/DAP/NPK fertilizer prices will decrease by 3%/2%/2% YoY, respectively.
- According to the World Fertilizer Association (IFA) and the World Bank, the world selling price of Urea/DAP/Potassium fertilizer decreased by 7%/8%/3% YoY respectively due to the expected decrease in fertilizer demand from India and Brazil, combined with the decrease in the price of gas, coal and agricultural products (rice, rice).
- Domestic fertilizer prices are expected to decrease less than world fertilizers thanks to:
- (1) demand increases when the weather is favorable in the domestic market while agricultural product prices remain high.
- (2) domestic manufacturers increase selling costs increase to retain customers.
- (3) the VAT law is likely not to take effect directly in 2025 due to the need to wait for specific guidance decree information, so it has not helped businesses save costs.
- (4) the fluctuations in supply and demand of each type of fertilizer in the world are different, so the impact on each type of domestic fertilizer will be different.
- The gross profit margin of the fertilizer industry in 2025 is expected to increase thanks to oil prices falling faster than domestic fertilizer selling prices, while businesses remain the same or only slightly reduce selling prices. However, the increase in selling costs will prevent the net profit margin from increasing sharply.
Perspective on freight rates from geopolitical tensions and the US - Asia oil & gas transportation route
27-12-2024
: PVT, PVP, PDV
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- Geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing. In the past month, cargo volume through the Suez Canal has dropped by 74% compared to 2023, totaling only 1.2 million tons. In contrast, throughput through the Cape of Good Hope has increased by 65%, reaching nearly 6.0 million tons. Houthi attacks on Israel in the Red Sea may lead to higher freight rates for oil tankers, while the transportation route remains longer. According to BIMCO forecasts, this tense situation is expected to continue into 2024, supporting maritime freight rates.
- Increased oil production under the Trump administration is likely to boost transportation flows from the U.S. Gulf to the Asia-Pacific region. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will increase by 1.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2025, while demand will rise from 840,000 barrels per day to 1.1 mb/d, primarily driven by the Asia-Pacific region.
- OPEC+'s maintenance of production cuts may help stabilize the oil market. In this context, Vietnamese shipping companies are expanding their operations to the U.S. and Europe, forecasting a continued positive outlook for the oil and gas transportation sector in the near future.
A review on the Vietnam’s monetary market in 2024
26-12-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags:
- The VND depreciates by about 4.8% in 2024.
- The SBV flexibly regulates the open market to balance the target of stabilizing interest rates and exchange rates.
- Interest rates in the primary market increase slightly, which is linked to the credit growth trend.
- Credit growth for 2024 is estimated at 16%, significantly higher than the increase in money supply
NLG – Sales in 2025 are estimated to have a slowdown
25-12-2024
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags:
- For 2024, we estimate NLG's revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 5,398 billion (+70%YoY) and VND 173 billion (-64%YoY), respectively, mainly from the handover: 1/ Akari 2 project (VND 3,448 billion), 2/ Nam Long Can Tho project (VND 1,284 billion).
- Presales value in 2025 will slow down, estimated at VND 5,303 billion due to: 1/ projects estimated to be launched in the next year, mostly in satellite cities (Can Tho, Long An, Dong Nai,...), 2/ low-rise, high-value products need a lot of time to absorb.
- Based on the RNAV valuation method, the fair value of NLG is VND 39,000 per share. Combined with a cash dividend of VND 500 per share, the expected total profit is 9% compared to the closing price on December 25, 2024.
Textile Industry – Slowdown in textile export revenue in 1H2025
23-12-2024
: TNG, MSH, TCM, STK
: Textile & Garment
:
Tags:
- In November 2024, the textile industry's total export revenue reached USD 5.8 billion (+11% YoY, flat compared to the previous month’s), with textiles and footwear accounting for 52% and 37%, respectively.
- For textiles, export values have slowed down across key markets such as the US, Europe, South Korea, and China due to most fashion brands increasing inventory during the peak season from June to August 2024. Specifically, export values to Japan market have declined by 2% YoY.
- We expect textile export revenue to see low single-digit growth in 1H2025 because retailers have little incentive to increase inventory, and domestic companies are slowing down their procurement of raw materials.
EU-GMP standard in pharmaceutical industry – benefits and challenges
20-12-2024
: IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- Within the GMP standards, WHO-GMP is the most common in Vietnam. However, it is no longer considered reliable due to its lack of in-depth technical criteria and inconsistent evaluation and validation standards across countries. The EU-GMP, Japan-GMP, and PIC/S-GMP standards are now regarded as more reliable and become benchmarks in the "standard-raising" race in Vietnam.
- Applying high standards such as EU-GMP offers many benefits - higher revenue and profit, export opportunities, more efficient and safer operations, improved brand positioning, and competitive advantages in bidding for the ETC channel. However, it also presents challenges for companies to comply with these standards - significant investment in terms of capital and time, and maintaining EU-GMP standard requires both higher commitment and advanced management capabilities.
- Companies with existing production lines certified to EU-GMP standard or equivalent will have a competitive advantage in ETC channel bidding as the government prioritizes high-quality domestically-produced drugs. Within listed companies, the followings benefit: IMP, DHG, PME. Besides, DBD has several projects focused on EU-GMP upgrades while DHT has completed a new pharmaceutical plant in the Hoa Lac High-Tech Park (Hanoi) based on Japan-GMP standard and waiting for evaluation
08-01-2025
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