19-12-2025VNINDEX1704.3127.331.63% HNXIndex253.970.740.29% UPCOM119.410.660.56% VN301933.2829.811.57% VN1001831.7827.721.54% HNX30547.993.690.68% VNXALL2863.4540.461.43% VNX503185.4953.731.72% VNMID2213.9816.830.77% VNSML1485.72-5.49-0.37% FMC – Q3/2024 revenue hits record high but NPAT-MI is under- expectations
30-10-2024
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Q3-2024: Revenue reached VND 2,845 billion (or USD 113 mn; +59% YoY) as a 41% YoY increase in shrimp volume and a 14% YoY estimated rise in shrimp selling prices in VND. Shrimp prices in VND rose 6% QoQ, but the gross margin fell short of our forecast, reaching 10.8% (down from 11.3% in Q2/2024). Selling expenses surged by 150% YoY due to a threefold increase in transportation costs, reducing NPAT-MI to VND 80 billion (or 3,2 mn; -1% YoY).
- For 2024, we have raised our revenue projection to VND 7,279 billion (or USD 291 mn,+43.1% YoY) with a 29% YoY volume increase and a 12% YoY price increase. However, we have revised down our NPAT-MI projection to VND 280 billion (or USD 11.2 mn, +1.3% YoY) from VND 342 billion due to a 37% increase in selling expenses over the previous forecast. Adjusted 2024 EPS after the welfare fund allocation is VND 4,235 (+1.3% YoY).
- We find FMC not particularly attractive in the short term as it is currently trading at an adjusted 2024 forward P/E of 10.9x, which is higher than the 5-year average of 7.5x from 2018-2023. We will update our long-term projections for this stock in an upcoming report.
HAX – Q3-2024 results exceeded our expectations thanks to significant profit margin expansion
29-10-2024
: HAX
: Automobiles
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q3-2024, according to VAMA, Vietnam's automobile sales recorded 59,743 units, an impressive growth of +29.4% QoQ, +13.4% YoY, contributed by the recovery of purchasing power coupled with support from the policy of cutting registration fee by 50% for domestically assembled vehicles (CKD), effective for 3 months from September 1st, 2024. The market share of CKD vehicles such as Hyundai TC, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Mercedes-Benz (MBZ) accordingly, also recovered well in this quarter.
- HAX recorded an impressive Q3-2024 net sales of VND 1,536 bn (+36.8% QoQ, +37.7% YoY), thanks to the general market factor (as mentioned) and increased market share for distributing MG cars when opening 5 new showrooms during this period.
- HAX's NPAT-MI in this quarter reached VND 62 bn (x7 times QoQ, YoY). The most notable factors are (1) expanding gross margin of MBZ segment, (2) reducing selling exp/net sales for both MBZ and MG, and (3) other abnormal income of VND 21 bn in subsidiaries (mainly MG, x3 times QoQ, x~2 times YoY) which may come from the bonus recognition from MG after 1 year of successful cooperation with SAIC Motor (July-2023).
- For 2024, we forecast HAX's net revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 5,373 bn (+34.9% YoY), VND 143 bn (+322% YoY), respectively, corresponding to EPS in 2024 reaching VND 1,328/share.
- We believe that HAX is no longer an attractive investment opportunity in the short term when the 2024 fwd PE at the closing price on October 28th, 2024, reached 12.6x, which is higher than its 2012-23 average (9.2x). We will continue to update the long-term forecast and valuation in the following report.
Plastic material – Remain advantage from low-cost raw materials
28-10-2024
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- For 9M24, companies have not recorded revenue growth, as demand for construction plastic products has not recovered significantly; with revenue of BMP and NTP reaching VND 3.6 trillion (-3% YoY) and VND 3.8 trillion (equivalent to the same period in 2023), respectively. However, there is a bright spot in that the profit margins to improve compared to 2023, when PVC resin prices decreased to USD 790/ton (-9% YoY), due to: 1/ Oversupply of plastic raw materials in the Chinese market; 2/ Demand for construction materials has not fully recovered. Gross profit margins (GPM) of BMP and NTP in 9M24 reached 43% (vs. 41% in 2023) and 30.5% (vs. 30% in 2023), respectively, remaining at the highest level in the 2020-2024 period.
- For Q4/2024, the peak period of domestic construction, we expect output to recover slightly (compared to Q3/24 and to the same period in 2023), when the residential real estate market shows signs of recovery. In terms of raw materials (PVC resins), demand has not yet recovered significantly, thereby we expect raw material prices to fluctuate within a narrow range of USD790/ton (equivalent to Q3/2024).
- For the company in the coverage list - BMP, we expect Q4 sales volume to reach 25 thousand tons (up 2% YoY), corresponding to estimated revenue of VND 1,468 billion (equivalent to Q4/2023). GPM margin remains at 43% (equivalent to Q3/24, based on PVC price scenario), with SG&A expense/revenue ratio to reach 15% (when BMP maintains discount policy with agents to maintain market share), we estimate BMP's Q4/24 net profit to reach VND 282 billion (+13% YoY). For the whole year of 2024, BMP's NPAT can reach VND 1,042 billion (equivalent to 2023 and completing the company's business plan).
Update on monetary market in Oct 2024
25-10-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- The dong has increased rapidly following the recovery of the DXY index.
- Monetary policy remains supportive but is ready to respond to short-term pressures
Seaport – The period of rapid growth is over and unpredictable factors await
24-10-2024
: GMD, HAH, VSC
: Seaports
: Quân Cao
Tags:
- In September 2024, commercial activity contracted compared to the previous month. The estimated value of seaborne container imports and exports reached USD 19 billion (+15% YoY) and USD 13 billion (+18% YoY), respectively. For 9M2024, the value of seaborne container imports and exports reached USD 164 billion (+14% YoY) and USD 110 billion (+16% YoY), respectively.
- Compared to the previous month, the throughput at both Hai Phong and Vung Tau ports contracted in September 2024, in line with the trade flows. Total throughput in these two regions decreased by 10% MoM and 12% MoM, respectively, yet still showed positive growth of 7% YoY and 33% YoY, reaching 602 thousand TEUs and 548 thousand TEUs, respectively. This decline reflects an annual pattern typical of the industry's peak season. The peak season falls between June and August, accounting for 27% of the value and volume of seaborne container imports and exports.
- Cargo clearance is forecast to slow down in Q4-FY24 but should still maintain positive growth compared to the same period last year. We expect demand for non-essential goods to improve more markedly in 2H2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which ease debt burdens and increase real purchasing power for US consumers.
- The outlook for global trade in 2025 remains clouded by "lingering" risks that could skew forecasts, including the US presidential election on November 5, 2024, and persistent geopolitical tensions.
Real Estate Market 9M2024 – Supply Balance Expectations
23-10-2024
: KDH, NLG, PDR
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH NLG PDR
- In Q3/2204, condos accounted for nearly 70% of the new supply for sale, with most of them coming from the high-end and luxury segments (selling price over VND 50 mn/ m2 for condo), in which the Hanoi condos market continued to record positive signals in terms of both supply and absorption.
- Primary selling prices continued to maintain an upward momentum, the Hanoi market was close to VND 64 mn/m2 (+9%QoQ, +26%YoY), while the Ho Chi Minh City market increased slightly and reached 66 million VND/m2 (+4%QoQ, +8%YoY). We believe that the upward trend in prices (in both primary and secondary markets) will continue in Q4/2024 and the first half of 2025, implying that the demand for condos remains high.
- We expect the supply constraints of Ho Chi Minh City. Ho Chi Minh City will soon be dismantled with changes in new laws and mechanisms: 1/ piloting the expansion of land for commercial housing to remove the supply to the market, 2/ announcing a new land price list for Ho Chi Minh City, accelerate the process of compensation and calculation of land use levy for projects with legal problems. Some listed investors have projects expected to open for sale in Q4/2024, including: KDH (Foresta), NLG (Mizuki Park, Nam Long Can Tho), PDR (NTMK, Bac Ha Thanh).
PVS – O&G projects to be 2024-2025F growth drivers; offshore wind energy for further development
22-10-2024
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Thang Hoang
Tags:
- 2024 marks a significant milestone for PVS with the implementation of several critical oil and gas projects such as Block B, Su Tu Trang, and Lac Da Vang. However, during the project's first year, PVS focus mainly on surveying, design drafting, and equipment procurement, meaning the construction work will be concentrated in 2025 and 2026.
- We project revenue of VND 22,730 billion (+17% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,107 billion (+8% YoY) for 2024. Looking forward to 2025, we expect strong growth earnings growth for PVS, with revenue of VND 38,235 billion (+68% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,509 billion (+36% YoY).
- In the long term, we believe PVS will continue to benefit from the growing trend of offshore wind power projects.
- We have an ACCUMULATE rating for PVS shares with a target price of VND 42,300 per share (+10%) based on the FCFF and P/E methods. Despite the company's positive outlook, we believe the current price already reflects its growth potential from continuously securing contracts, with a P/E of 20x, close to the three-year average of 21x
Coated steel market update for Q3/2024 – Maintaining growth
21-10-2024
: HSG, NKG
: Materials
: Dung Ma
Tags:
- In Q3/2024, total domestic consumption reached 629,433 tons (-1.4% QoQ, +23.9% YoY). Notably, the Northern region recorded outstanding growth (+41.5% YoY, +2.5% QoQ), while the Southern region remained the largest consumer with 365,270 tons. Exports continued to grow at a high rate in Q3/2024 (+39.4% YoY); however, the export share compared to domestic consumption dropped to 50% in September 2024, as global steel prices showed unfavorable conditions.
- In September 2024, news of the People's Bank of China's economic stimulus package provided a positive boost to the steel industry, with Chinese HRC prices reacting by increasing 12% since the beginning of September. There is optimism that steel prices in Q4 will recover to the USD530–580/ton range. For 2025, we expect Vietnam's domestic steel industry to maintain a growth rate of +10% YoY, however, the export market may face challenges (with volumes down 5% YoY), due to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on CORE steel and a slow recovery in global demand.
- Based on the current information, we maintain a short-term investment recommendation for HSG stock in Q4, with a target price of VND 23.500 (+14% from October 18, 2024) due to: 1/ The domestic real estate market, especially in the Northern region, is recovering, where HSG leads the market share, 2/ The dependency on exports is gradually decreasing (59.7% in Q3/2024 compared to 68.9% in Q1), and 3/ Domestic steel prices are rising again, improving HSG's profit margins in Q4 2024.
CTG – Notes from 2024 EGM and Q3-2024 & 2024 Forecasts Update
18-10-2024
: CTG
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- On October 17, CTG successfully held an Extraordinary General Shareholders' Meeting, during which two additional members were elected to the Board of Directors for the 2024-2029 term
- For Q3-2024, we forecast Net Interest Income (NII)/Total Operating Income/Consolidated Profit Before Tax (PBT) to grow by 19% YoY/12% YoY/42% YoY, respectively. The key expected drivers for PBT growth include (1) a 5basispoint (bps) expansion in NIM from a low base in the same period, (2) credit growth of approximately 16% YoY (or 9% year-to-date), and (3) a 7% YoY reduction in credit risk provisioning costs. Credit costs are also expected to decrease by 12% compared to the previous quarter, thanks to the partial reversal of provisions set aside for non-performing loans (NPLs) in Q2-2024, which have since been controlled and reclassified as standard loans. As of the end of Q3-2024, the NPL ratio before CIC adjustments stood at 1.4%
- For 9M-2024, PBT is estimated to reach VND 19.9 trillion, up 14% YoY, fulfilling 67% of the current 2024F PBT forecast
- For the full-year 2024F projection, we have revised our forecast downward by 5%, reducing the expected PBT to VND 27.9 trillion (+12% YoY) from the previous estimate of VND 29.5 trillion (+18% YoY). This adjustment is based on: (1) a slight reduction in consolidated credit growth for the year from 14.4% to 13.8%, as the credit growth recovery remains unstable, and (2) a 7 bps decline in NIM to 2.92%
- We have adjusted CTG's target price downward by 3% to VND 40,400 per share, reflecting the revisions in our updated forecast. With a total expected return of 11% based on the closing price as of October 18, 2024, we maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation for CTG
Decoding the 1,200+ of VN-Index after more than 20 years
17-10-2024
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Hung Le
Tags:
- After the 2007-2009 financial crisis, international stock indices such as the Dow Jones and S&P 500 showed strong growth, while the VN-Index hovered around 1,000 points for more than 20 years.
- The VN-Index reached a high P/E valuation (35 times), reaching an all-time high of 1,155 points in March 2007, but investment returns were not attractive, leading to a correction to more reasonable levels after the 2008 crisis.
- The investment performance of the VN Index has been correlated with the S&P 500 since 2009, although the S&P 500 has outperformed since 2016 due to a higher P/E valuation.
- The valuation range and EPS growth trend of VN Index maintained around +8.4%/year or more implying an expected return of over 14.2%/year in the long term (Table 1).
Update on Vietnam’s trade in 9M2024
16-10-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags:
- Trade maintains a high growth rate in Q3/2024.
- Agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports strengthen their position in Vietnam's export structure.
- Q4 exports may maintain double-digit growth, around 10-13%
EraBlue – MWG's ambitious game needs more proof
15-10-2024
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- Compared to the most recent “going abroad” in Cambodia, MWG’s “Erablue” move to cooperate with the large ICT retail chain Erajaya, aiming to penetrate the Indonesian CE market makes more sense when this market is at a stage when it is likely to explode in the near future and has much larger potential market size than both Vietnam and Cambodia.
- The “necessary” conditions for Erablue’s success are already there (market factors), however, we believe that Erablue needs additional “sufficient” conditions to compete with traditional mom-and-pop stores, other CE retailers, and especially “online platforms” – currently growing rapidly in Indonesia, to become the “second Dienmayxanh”.
- We believe that Erablue has the potential to capture ~70% market share in the CE pie from other small stores/retail chains, thanks to DMX’s successful formula and the operational experience from Erayaja. However, the chain's growth depends heavily on the speed of converting purchases to e-commerce platform, which have price advantages and are growing "fast" in CE field, similar to the Vietnamese market.
- We recommend that investors closely monitor the pace of store openings and the chain’s specific quarterly financial reports to accurately assess the potential of the Erablue and the level of impact on the overall valuation of MWG (accounting for 45% of the chain's shares)
30-10-2024
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