13-02-2026 VNINDEX 1824.09 10.00
0.55% HNXIndex 257.06 0.58
0.23% UPCOM 127.34 1.40
1.11% VN30 2018.64 2.17
0.11% VN100 1904.16 8.35
0.44% HNX30 563.37 2.65
0.47% VNXALL 2965.25 12.69
0.43% VNX50 3319.74 14.17
0.43% VNMID 2243.4 22.46
1.01% VNSML 1490.73 2.03
0.14%
REE – Earnings bottoming out from Q2 2024 : REE : Utilities : Thang Hoang Tags:
REE announced weak Q2/2024 financial results with revenue flat at VND 2,183bn (USD 87mn) and NPAT-MI of VND 450bn (USD 18mn; -8% YoY). The underperformance of the energy segment, which contributes 40% of revenue and 80% of NPAT, outweighed strong performance of other segments such as mechanical and electrical (M&E) and real estate. We believe REE’s earnings have already hit bottom in Q2/2024 and that would recover in Q3 and Q4 due to (1) a greater contribution from the real estate segment and (2) the company's hydroelectricity cycle, which peaks in Q3 and especially in Q4. We forecast full-year 2024F revenue of VND 8,509bn (USD 338mn; -1% YoY) and NPAT-MI of 2,021bn (USD 80mn; -8% YoY). Looking foward to 2025, we anticipate REE’s business to gradually recover, driven by (1) a recovery in hydroelectricity production due to the La Niña cycle and (2) a higher occupancy rate at the Etown 6 building. Using the sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) valuation method, we derive 12-month target price for REE at VND 71,300 per share, equivalent to a forward P/E of 16.5x and an expected return of 8% based on the closing price as of August 6, 2024.
US: The softness in the labor market casts doubts on the possibility of an economic recession : VDS : Macroeconomics : Luan Pham Tags: VDS
The job market in the US is showing clear signs of slowing down. Concerns about an economic recession are growing, but still too soon to conclude that the US is slipping into a recession. The market is predicting the Fed to cut interest rates by 125 basis points in 2024.
VIB – Profit Growth Potential in 2H-2024 Looks Promising with Reduction in Provisioning Pressure : VIB : Banking : Tung Do Tags:
Q2-2024 Pre-Tax Profit decreased by 29% YoY, weaker than previously anticipated (-17% YoY) due to slower-than-expected income from bad debt recoveries, while operating and provisioning expenses slightly exceeded forecasts. Credit growth reached 4.6%, lower than the industry average of 6%, with the growth rate in personal loans remaining slow (+1.2% YTD), while corporate lending was emphasized more, achieving a growth of 22% YTD. We have revised down our 2024 projections for Total Operating Income and PBT by 1% and 2%, respectively, to VND 22.4 trillion (+1% YoY) and VND 11.5 trillion (+7% YoY) after adjusting the NIM down 10 bps to 4.1% and the credit cost ratio down 20 bps to 1.3%. With PBT growth implied at 36% YoY in 2H-2024, we maintain a BUY recommendation for VIB with a target price of VND 23,800 per share, adjusted down by 5% from the previous target price. The total expected return (including a 10% cash dividend) is 23%. This target price implies a 2024F/2025F P/B valuation of 1.6x/1.4x.
BSR – Back to the runway after major maintenance : BSR : Oil & Gas : Ngan Le, ACCA Tags:
Due to the production halt for plant maintenance (March 15 – May 1), 2Q24 sales volume decreased by 29% YoY, leading to a 27% YoY decrease in revenue. Additionally, the crack spread remained low, and the incurred maintenance costs further contributed to the LNG margin decreasing to 2% (2Q23: 3%). NPAT-MI dropped by 43% YoY, to VND 768 bn. Revenue and NPAT-MI were recorded at VND 55,118 bn (-19% YoY) and VND 1,912 bn (-36% YoY) respectively, at 44%/46% of our projections. Although business results were impacted by periodic maintenance, a highlight in 2Q24 was the the Quang Ngai People's Court’s approval of bankruptcy proceedings for the subsidiary BSR BF, which facilitated the transfer of BSR's stock listing from UPCoM to HoSE.
Seaport industry – Positive outlook maintained for the second half : GMD, VSC, HAH : Seaports : Quan Cao Tags: Seaports Shipping
Accumulated 1H2024, the estimated value of container via sea ex-im of goods were USD 103 bn (+10% YoY) and USD 68 bn (+8% YoY), respectively. Accumulated 1H2024, the container throughput in Hai Phong and Vung Tau regions were 3.5 mn TEUs (+20% YoY) and 3 mn TEUs (+37% YoY), respectively. The demand for trade flow is forecasted to continue its growth trend as manufacturing enterprises receive many new orders for the peak season in the second half of 2024.
Jewelry Market - Slow Growth Expected in the Coming Years : PNJ : Retailing : Quyen Nguyen Tags:
After a slowdown from 2020 to 2022, the jewelry market has seen a modest recovery in 2023, following the macroeconomic rebound. We project the jewelry market to grow at an annual rate of 2.4% from 2023 to 2030. Although Vietnamese disposable income is forecasted to rise rapidly at a rate of 7.7% per year, we believe the spending ratio on jewelry/disposable income will decrease from 1.4% in 2023 to 1.0% in 2030. This is due to continued government regulation of the jewelry market, competition from attractive investment channels (such as stocks and real estate), and an aging population prioritizing health and welfare over beauty and social status.
NLG – Pre-sales show improvement in 2H2024 : NLG : Real Estate : Giao Nguyen Tags: NLG
In Q2 2024, NPAT-MI improved compared to the previous quarter, reaching VND 144 billion (+19% YoY, compared to a loss in Q1 2024). This improvement is attributed to NLG's continued delivery of projects on schedule and revenue from the sale of a 25% stake in the Paragon Dai Phuoc project to a Japanese partner, generating financial gains of VND 230 billion. For the full year of 2024, we estimate that the revenue and NPAT-MI will be VND 7,389 billion (+132% YoY) and VND 453 billion (-6% YoY), respectively, primarily from the delivery of the Akari (Phase 2) and Nam Long 2 – Can Tho projects. The EPS for 2024 is forecast at VND 1,169. Sales in Q2 2024 amounted to VND 1,510 billion (+29% QoQ), coming from projects such as Akari, Waterpoint, and Mizuki, with a cumulative total for the first half of 2024 reaching VND 2,678 billion (+209% YoY, achieving 28% of the annual plan). Given the warming up of the real estate market, we expect sales to continue to rise in 2H2024 due to: 1/ affordable housing options to meet actual demand from the EhomeS Can Tho project, Can Tho land plots, and Ehome Southgate, which are expected to have good absorption rates; 2/ NLG's continued policy of supporting homebuyers; and 3/ sustained low interest rates. Based on the RNAV valuation method, we estimate NLG's fair value at VND 43,900/share, providing a 12-month expected total return of 6% compared to the closing price on July 30, 2024 (including a cash dividend of VND 500 per share). We recommend an ACCUMULATE rating for NLG.
Flat steel – Industrial steel set to grow : HPG, NKG : Materials : Thach Lam Do, CFA Tags: GDA
According to Market Research Future, the 2023 global flat steel market value reached USD 484bn, and it is expected to reach USD 817bn by 2032 (equivalent to a CAGR of 6% in the period 2024-2032). Rapid industrialization, widespread use of mechanical, automotive, and construction equipment, and increased infrastructure investment, are the key market drivers that are enhancing the market growth. In particular, the North American, Asian and European markets are the main consumer markets, where the manufacturing hub of automobiles, household appliances and machinery is concentrated. The Vietnamese flat steel market is still in the early stages of the development cycle, with: 1/ Input materials (HRC) still need to be imported, especially for high-quality steel grades; 2/ Domestic galvanized steel companies did not have flat steel grades for household appliances and industrial equipment (with higher profit margins). However, domestic manufacturers are beginning to realize the potential of this sector and have specific investment plans, including: 1/ Hoa Phat with Dung Quat Complex 02 (DQ02) with the development of high-quality steel grades; 2/ Some leading galvanized steel companies (NKG, GDA) are preparing to invest in large-scale flat steel factories and also diversify into industrial steel product segment
ACB – Robust credit growth and effective cost control have resulted in the exceeding-expectation Q2-2024 PBT growth : ACB : Banking : Tung Do Tags:
The consolidated profit before tax growth reached 16% YoY, exceeding the expectation of 6% YoY, largely driven by the growth in interest-earning assets (+23% YoY) and a reduction in provisioning expenses (-17% YoY), along with effective control of operating costs (-1% YoY). Credit growth at the parent bank reached 12.4%, outgrowing the industry's average of 6%, with growth rates among individual customers/SMEs/large corps at 12.3%/2.2%/37.6%, respectively. We forecast ACB's 2024 business results with TOI and PBT reaching VND 36 trillion (+10% YoY) and VND 22 trillion (+10% YoY), respectively. We maintain an ACCUMULATE recommendation for ACB with a target price of VND 27,400 per share, based on its superior credit growth capabilities, solid balance sheet, and industry-leading ROE.
Update on monetary market in July 2024 : VDS : Macroeconomics : My Tran Tags: VDS
Banking system liquidity was moderately stable in July. USDVND exchange rate cools down in the short term. Credit growth reached the target but was uneven; NPL continued to increase.
Seafood Industry – Outlook for the Second Half of 2024 : VHC, FMC : Fishery : Hien Le Tags:
In 1H2024, the seafood industry is recovering with a slight increase of 6.8% YoY due to improved demand. The growth in the shrimp and pangasius sectors is primarily due to increased production, while selling prices remain lower than the same period last year due to intense competition and weak market demand. In the 2H2024, we expect the seafood industry to continue the growth trend from 1H2024, with recovery in the US and Japan markets being more prominent than in other markets. The pangasius sector increased slightly by 5% YoY in 1H2024 due to a 17% YoY increase in production. The outlook for 2H2024 focuses on increased production levels due to more competitive pangasius prices compared to other fish species. Pangasius prices are expected to gradually increase in the second half of 2024 across all markets due to the peak season; however, the increase will not be strong due to the weak economic conditions in various countries and expectations of improvement in 2025 after the Fed is projected to cut interest rates in September. The shrimp sector also saw a slight increase of 6% YoY in 1H2024, but the export value of white shrimp only increased by 3% YoY to $1.1 billion, while tiger shrimp reached $199 million (-10% YoY). The growth outlook for 2H2024 also focuses on increased production levels due to high competition with Ecuador and India. Shrimp prices are expected to gradually rise in various markets, with the Japanese market expected to improve sooner due to (1) a stronger Yen/USD exchange rate as the Fed cuts interest rates and (2) lower price competition. Gross margins are expected to increase in 2H2024 for companies with a high degree of self-sufficiency in shrimp/raw fish materials such as VHC, ANV, and FMC, due to low input agricultural costs while selling prices are expected to gradually increase in most markets. Additionally, the expected stability of raw fish/shrimp prices in 2H2024 will also support the gross margins of companies with lower self-sufficiency. International shipping costs to major markets are expected to decrease in 2H2024 due to the arrival of new ships from Vietnamese shipping companies, which will help improve net margins for seafood exporters selling at CFR prices or improve selling prices for exporters selling at FOB prices (due to reduced cost sharing with buyers) in 2H2024.
Vietnam automobiles market - Looking towards 2H2024 with multiple concerns : HAX : Automobiles : Hung Nguyen Tags:
In 6M-2024, Vietnam's automobiles sales decreased by -9.9% YoY, in line with our previous forecast of declining vehicle consumption in the early months of the year. Moving into the H2-2024, we anticipate a rebound in the automobiles sector from H1-2024 amid an economic recovery and “the seasonal consumption” for automobile. However, the YoY growth is unlikely to meet initial expectations due to the potential failure of the proposed 50% reduction in registration fees. In the long run, the automobiles industry holds significant room growth potential due to low vehicle ownership rates among the population as theorical. However, we believe the actual growth prospects for this sector are not as substantial as expected, given inadequate transportation infrastructure and high vehicle prices (stemming from low localization rates and bulky tax/fee structures). Longstanding automakers in Vietnam (Toyota, Hyundai, Mazda...) are increasingly facing challenges in an expanding competitive landscape with the entry of numerous new brands (MG, Lexus, Ford...). In terms of car dealers (HAX, CTF...), they are striving to diversify their brand portfolios to seek new growth drivers rather than relying solely on a single brand
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