14-10-2025VNINDEX1761.06-4.06-0.23% HNXIndex275.33-0.02-0.01% UPCOM113.150.450.40% VN302013.691.410.07% VN1001935.25-0.40-0.02% HNX30605.440.310.05% VNXALL3032.05-1.89-0.06% VNX503354.071.280.04% VNMID2511.92-6.74-0.27% VNSML1563.52-20.83-1.31% Seaports industry – Vietnam's role in global supply chains
19-06-2025
: GMD, HAH, VSC
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports
- The US reciprocal tariffs imposed on Vietnamese goods reduce competitiveness, but the difference is not enough to cause supply chains to leave Vietnam.
- We expect that the group of goods accounting for a high proportion of container production such as textiles and garments will still be produced in Vietnam, helping to maintain the growth of port throughput.
U.S. public debt soars - U.S. housing market slows down
18-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S. public debt continues to rise sharply, reaching 97.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2024, with projections to surpass the post-World War II record by 2030. Despite rising borrowing costs, the Trump administration persists with an expansionary fiscal policy. The large-scale tax and spending reform bill passed in May 2025 is expected to add an additional $3.8 trillion to public debt from 2025-2034. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, from Aaa to Aa1, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds.
- The U.S. housing market is undergoing a significant shift from a supply shortage to a localized surplus. The increase in homes for sale and higher mortgage rates have dampened purchasing power, creating the largest supply-demand surplus since 2013. This has led to a slowdown in home price growth, with prices rising only 4.1% in March 2025, a sharp decrease compared to the previous hot growth period.
Gold Market Policy Turns – A New Gateway for Manufacturing and Retail?
17-06-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Vietnam's gold market has recently become more vibrant than ever, driven not only by global changes but also by the Vietnamese Government’s newly proposed gold market management policies at the end of May. These proposals are strategic, focused, and long-term in nature - marking a shift in mindset and approach with the aim of tightening control over the gold market, curbing speculation, and repositioning gold as a true financial asset. These changes are expected to have a meaningful impact on the supply of input materials for jewelry manufacturers and retailers, especially given growing concerns over securing sufficient production reserves.
- In the first half of 2025, gold prices repeatedly hit new record highs, leading to a significant increase in the price gap between domestic and international gold, peaking at an estimated 16.2%. Despite this, local demand for gold as a store of value remained strong, driven by expectations of further price increases. Recently, however, this gap has started to narrow, reflecting positive shifts in both policy and market supply - demand dynamics.
- Alongside optimism for a more transparent information and trading mechanism, and a stable supply of raw materials for jewelry producers, we believe the biggest remaining “bottleneck” lies in market trust - a constraint that will take time to gradually “ease”.
Trade update May 2025: Speed up negotiations before the 90-day deadline
16-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The effect of rushing export orders continued to be evident in the trade results for May 2025.
- Exports by domestic enterprises significantly declined compared to the previous month, while the trade activities of FDI enterprises continued to accelerate.
- The top three export growth categories in May 2025 were electronics, agricultural and aquatic products, and machinery and equipment.
- Imports of raw materials for production gradually decreased in the textile and garment sector. In contrast, imports of raw materials for electronics and machinery equipment remained at high levels.
- Exports to the U.S. market continued to grow exceptionally, surpassing the growth rate of exports to non-U.S. markets. Concurrently, the trade surplus with the U.S. continued to expand.
- The rush for export orders before the tariff deadline was particularly strong for toys, electronics, chemicals, agricultural products, and paper. However, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel, steel exports bucked the overall trend of growth.
- Vietnam has undergone three official rounds of negotiations with U.S. representatives regarding tariffs. The announced results indicate positive progress, though details remain undisclosed, with just over half a month left before the 90-day tariff suspension period ends.
- Currently, Vietnam, along with 17 key trade partners, is working toward signing agreements with the U.S. Recent remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest that the U.S. may be flexible with tariff deadlines for countries demonstrating “good faith” in negotiations.
- The latest developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations indicate that the U.S. will impose a 10% reciprocal tariff on China, with the total effective tariff increase on Chinese goods reaching around 29%. According to Bloomberg, Vietnam is seeking a tariff in the range of 20-25%, corresponding to an additional effective tariff increase of 15-18%.
DGC – Good Growth in Yellow Phosphorus, Favorable Fertilizer Business
13-06-2025
: DGC
: Chemicals, Fertilizer
: Duong Tran
Tags:
- In Q1 2025, DGC recorded revenue of VND 2,810 billion (+18% YoY, +16% QoQ) with consumption volumes of yellow phosphorus (P4), 85% H3PO4 (TPA), fertilizers, and animal feed additives reaching 14,301 tons (+28% YoY, +25% QoQ), 8,817 tons (-47% YoY, -25% QoQ), 81,717 tons (+11% YoY, +12% QoQ), and 18,918 tons (-14% YoY, -13% QoQ) respectively. The growth in yellow phosphorus was driven by stable demand from export markets, while fertilizer growth was mainly due to a supply shortage from China.
- DGC reported company’s net profit after-tax (NPAT) of VND 65 billion in Q1 2025 (+253% QoQ), recovering from the less favorable business results in Q4 2024.
- At the 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM), the company set a relatively cautious business plan, with revenue and pre-tax profit at VND 10,385 billion (+5% YoY) and VND 3,000 billion (+0.4% YoY), respectively. In terms of investment, the group officially commenced construction of the Nghi Son Chemical Complex project Phase 1 in February 2025 and expects it to be operational in Q2 2026.
KDH – Gladia will be the next "pillar" for Khang Dien's business
12-06-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- The Privia project will continue to contribute to the business performance in the 2nd quarter of 2025, with more than 200 apartments and 20 shophouses remaining, expected to bring in VND 808 billion in revenue and VND 153 billion in profit and profit, maintaining a gross profit margin of around 43%.
- The Gladia project – a strategic highlight of KDH in 2025, currently has a Construction Permit for the Emeria subdivision (67 units), is expected to open for sale in phase 1 in the 3rd quarter of 2025 with a total presales value estimated at VND 5,200 billion.
- We expect KDH's revenue in 2025 to reach ~VND 7,431 billion (+127% YoY), led by contributions from The Privia and Gladia. Currently, KDH shares are trading at a discount of 43% compared to RNAV, based on the stability of business results, development capacity and absorption capacity of projects in the near future, we believe that the discount will narrow as the market brings the stock price closer to its real value.
DGW – Q1-2025’s results aligned with expectations, highlighted by robust performance in new product categories
11-06-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hưng Nguyễn
Tags:
- DGW Q1-2025 results in line with analyst expectations: net revenue reached VND 5,519 bn (+10.7% YoY), NPAT-MI at VND 106 bn (+14.6% YoY), driven by market share gains in laptops & tablets offsetting mobile phone declines (mainly Apple), along with continued expansion in office equipment & home appliances (notably adding Philips to its portfolio). These two segments, with higher margins, helped lift EBIT margin by 103bps to 3.4%. However, their impact on net margin was offset by a one-off financial expense of VND 76 bn, keeping net margin flat YoY
- We view the upside potential in DGW’s target price favorably, driven by brighter signals of improved net margin from new segments such as Office Equipments and Home Appliances. We will update DGW’s valuation in subsequent reports. We note that DGW’s business performance is poised for a “stronger inflection point” in 2026, as one-off financial costs taper off, more accurately reflecting the expanded net profit margin contribution from these new segments.
REE – 1Q/2025 Brighten business results with hydroelectric recovery
10-06-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q1/2025, REE's revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPATMI) increased by 13% and 27% YoY, respectively.
- The recovery of Hydroelectric output (+30% YoY) was the main reason for the sharp increase in EBITDA of the energy segment (+74% YoY).
- NPATMI in the mechenical and engineering and real estate segments decreased by 21% and 22% YoY, respectively, due to the impact of interest expenses, warehousing fees and depreciation costs of Etown 6 projects.
- Revenue from the water and environment segment increased 10 times YoY, but high depreciation costs caused NPATMI to be flat (-1% YoY).
GMD – Q1-FY25 delivered strong results, driven by nationwide output growth
09-06-2025
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports GMD
- NPATMI reached VND 403 billion (+80% YoY, excluding the abnormal profit from the divestment of Nam Hai port in Q1-FY24).
- Net revenue reached VND 1,412 billion (+27% YoY). The container handling segment was the primary growth driver, with a strong increase in throughput in Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City.
- The 2025 plan is conservative, given the uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy towards Vietnam. Revenue and PBT are both projected to remain flat compared to the SPLY, at VND 4,850 billion and VND 1,800 billion, respectively.
- The Board proposes a treasury share buyback plan of up to 21 million shares to be repurchased if the market price falls below 1.5 times the book value, equivalent to a share price below VND 45,000.
Update on Banking Sector’s Asset Quality in 1Q25
06-06-2025
: BID, CTG, VCB, VPB, MBB, SHB, STB, HDB, ACB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- On-balance sheet non-performing loans (NPLs) from customer loans at 27 listed banks increased by over VND 37 trillion in 1Q25, following a reduction of more than VND 25 trillion in the prior quarter, representing a 16% QoQ increase. As a result, the total on-balance sheet NPLs at the end of 1Q25 rose to over VND 265 trillion, corresponding to an NPL ratio of 2.16%, compared to 1.92% at the end of 2024.
- Net NPL formation (before write-offs) in 1Q25 reached VND 64.5 trillion, a significant increase from approximately VND 11 trillion in the previous quarter. Of this, net NPL formation for the banking group (excluding consumer finance companies) amounted to VND 57.5 trillion, with a high concentration among four banks—BID, CTG, VPB, and MBB—accounting for 69% of the total net NPL formation.
- NPLs are expected to continue rising in the upcoming quarter, driven by the strong net increase in Group 2 loans, estimated to be equivalent to the net NPL formation in 1Q25, with significant latent NPL risks remaining. However, the scale of new NPLs will vary between state-owned banks and joint-stock commercial banks, as the substantial NPLs incurred by BID and CTG in 1Q25 have passed probation period and returned to the standard loan category.
- Specific credit risk provisioning expenses amounted to nearly VND 29 trillion, representing only 45% of the net NPL formation. Consequently, the industry’s loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage ratio declined to 92% at the end of 1Q25 from 110% in the prior quarter. The LLR coverage ratio for state-owned banks remained above 100%, at 132% (4Q24: 167%), while that of joint-stock commercial banks (JSCBs) further deteriorated to 56% (4Q24: 62%). The low LLR coverage ratio for JSCBs will increase pressure to bolster provisions to address both existing on-balance sheet NPLs (with a high proportion of Group 3 and 4 loans) and newly arising NPLs to manage the NPL ratio effectively.
PVS – Strong Q1/2025 performance driven by major projects
05-06-2025
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: Result Update Block B
- PVS reported solid Q1/2025 results, with consolidated revenue reaching VND 6,014 billion (+62% YoY), driven mainly by the M&C segment and the Block B – O Mon and Greater Changhua offshore wind projects in particular. NPAT-MI reached VND 332 billion (+10% YoY), fulfilling 38% of the full-year target, reflecting stable earnings quality from FSO/FPSO joint ventures and provision reversals at PSB.
- We maintain our 2025 forecast with net profit is VND 1,358 billion, up 27% YoY, supported by stable contributions from the FSO/FPSO segment and continued growth in M&C.
- We recommend ACCUMULATE for PVS, with a target price of VND 37,900 per share, offering a 17% upside from the closing price on June 5, 2025.
FMC – Accelerating exports ahead of US tariff decision
04-06-2025
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags: FMC Fisheries
- Vietnam's shrimp industry has recently faced many difficulties when the US tariff is expected to be applied to Vietnam higher than competitors in the world. However, FMC still shows a reasonable strategy when continuously showing strong growth in the first 5 months of 2025. FMC's 5M2025 export value reached 115 million USD (+41% YoY) as a strong 38% YoY growth of shrimp consumption.
- Although the selling price of Vietnamese shrimp is often higher than that of competitors, Vietnamese enterprises such as FMC have had a strong direction in the niche market of value-added shrimp products, such as breaded shrimp. Vietnam's value-added shrimp is only under pressure to compete directly with Thailand thanks to the positioning of high-quality products.
- In the field of food consumption, in addition to the selling price, consumers are very interested in product quality. Shrimp with high antibiotic residues are often refused import by the FDA. Therefore, we believe that Vietnam can compete in the US market with the position of high-quality value-added (VAT) shrimp products, as shown by accounting for 37% of the market share of value-added shrimp in Japan.
- Although tariff risks from the US and high raw shrimp prices due to the epidemic situation continue to cause difficulties for the shrimp industry , we expect FMC to easily change the market when the tariff rate in the US is not favorable. Since then, FMC's net profit is estimated at VND 308 billion (+1% YoY), equivalent to the long-term target price of VND 48,000 and BUY recommendation.
19-06-2025
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