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SMC - 2019 update

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image10-03-2020
: SMC
: Materials
: Tu Pham
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SMC’s financial performance was fine due to decreasing steel prices. The company’s ROE was 7.3%, higher than NKG’s (1.6%) and HSG’s (6.6%). SMC’s operating performance was better as its selling volume grew 16%. However, its net income decreased by 43% to VND 97 billion, of which VND 80 billion in net income came from its core business, while the remaining was the profit from selling 65% of its ownership in Ha Noi Coil Center.

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TDM- AGM Update

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image09-03-2020
: TDM
: Utilities
: Others
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fter TDM's AGM, we have pointed out the main points in the company’s 2019 performance and 2020 plan below

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OPEC and its allies deal cut

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image06-03-2020
:
:
: Vu Tran
Tags:

In its latest meeting, OPEC+ could not reach an agreement on output as Saudi Arabia and Russia once again disagreed with each other’s production targets. While Saudi Arabia expects a major cut – up to 1.5 million barrels/day from the current 1.2 million barrels/day, Russia wants to maintain its current production level.

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ANV – Update on 2019 results and 2020 forecast

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image05-03-2020
: ANV
: Fishery
: Tam Pham
Tags:

In 2019, export prices have dropped sharply but good volume  growth into China and ASEAN kept the growth momentum for the company's revenue and profit. ANV recorded net revenue and profit before tax of VND 4,481 billion and VND 831 billion, respectively, increasing 8.8% YoY and 20.4% YoY, respectively. Adjusted for provision reversals in 2018 and abnormal profits from asset liquidation in 2019, PBT from core operation in 2019 reached VND 809 billion, up 25.4% YoY.

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IMP – 2019’s bidding results and prospects for 2020

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image04-03-2020
: IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Others
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MP’s story in the coming years will be the ETC channel and the EU-GMP plants. We forecast when the three EU-GMP plants run at designed capacities (in 2023 according to our forecast), they will contribute around VND 2,000 bn in revenue while the two old WHO-GMP plants will contribute VND 800 bn (unchanged).

IMP’s stock has increased 10% since our BUY call in Dec/2019. For now we have an ACCUMULATE recommendation with an expected return of 18%. Target price in 2020 is VND 67,000/share.

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DPM - Result Update Report

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image04-03-2020
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Vu Tran
Tags:

We have an ACCUMULATE with a target price of VND13,600 per share, based on the FCFF and P/E method. Including the VND1,000 cash dividend, we arrive at a total return of 17.7%, based on the closing price on March 03rd, 2020.

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NKG - 2019 updates

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image03-03-2020
: NKG
: Materials
: Tu Pham
Tags:

NKG’s financial and operating performance did not improve in 2019 as net income dropped by 17.5% to just VND 47 billion and total selling volume decreased by 9%. Especially, net income was supported by pre-tax profits of VND 254 billion from selling fixed assets and financial investments.

NKG’s 2020 preliminary plans are ambitious compared to what it achieved in 2019 as net income target is 326% higher than net income in the previous year while selling volume target is just 11% higher. Besides, for 2020, NKG’s management expects that HRC prices will vary between USD 480-500/ton and gross margin will increase to 6.0% from 2.8% (2019). We expect that in Q1/2020, NKG can benefit from its low-price HRC inventory, which was bought in November 2019 at USD 420-430/ton.

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TCB – Update on 2019 Business Performance

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image02-03-2020
: TCB
:
: Others
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Without any one-off income, TCB still achieved a desirable earnings growth of 20% YoY in 2019 (core growth should be 31% YoY). The bank was able to maintain solid credit growth with an active approach in combining customer lending and corporate bonds to fit available credit room, along with a NIM expansion thanks to funding cost saving. Besides, high operating efficiency and easing provision have supported earnings retention. We estimate that an earnings growth of at least 20% YoY should be achievable in 2020.

Mr. Quoc Anh – the current CEO is going to leave in Sep 2020. The bank has been preparing for the transition by delegating each Division Head to make their own decision on daily operations since late 2019. As per the bank, the “Customer Centric” strategy will be retained as its strategic focus.

We maintain our target price at 28,000 VND/share, 25% higher than the closing market price in 28th Feb (VND 22,250/share), thereby reiterating a BUY rating on the stock.

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KSB updates

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image28-02-2020
:
:
: Others
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Opinion: We believe that KSB's earning in 2020 will be slightly affected by the decline from the contribution of Tan Dong Hiep mine due to the inventory from this field and the higher contribution from Dat Cuoc’s industrial park. However, in the long term, from 2021, revenue and profit from Tan Dong Hiep will decrease significantly. Therefore, the long-term prospect of the company will be determined by the possibility of M&A in the same industry. By contrast, debt will put pressure on cash flow in the short term. KSB's current share price is VND 19,150 per share, a 25% decrease compared to the end of 2018. The 12-month trailing PE is 3.6x, around its PE of 2013. We believe that this currently reflects the decline in profits from the Tan Dong Hiep mine, but it does not reflect business expectations in case of a successful M&A deal.

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VHC – Update on 2019 results and 2020 forecast

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image27-02-2020
: VHC
: Fishery
: Tam Pham
Tags:

In 2019, export prices have dropped sharply and the weak export to the US market significantly pulled down the company's revenue and profit. VHC recorded net revenue and profit before tax of VND 7,867 billion and VND 1,309 billion respectively, decreasing by 15% YoY and 22% YoY. Adjusted for abnormal revenues and financial expenses from divestments in 2018 and 2019, PBT from core operation in 2019 reached VND 1,203 billion, down 32% YoY.

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Summary of LTG's performance in 2019

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image26-02-2020
:
: Chemicals
: Others
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2019 was a difficult year in all business segments for LTG. As a result, both LTG's revenue and profit recorded a decrease compared to 2018. In 2020, we expect two segments- pesticides and seeds to hardly grow due to a saturated and competitive market. The negative impact from the Coronavirus will also impact earnings this year. Meanwhile, the revenue of the rice segment will decrease compared to 2019 as LTG no longer sells non-branded rice.

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Earnings results of listed companies in 2019

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image25-02-2020
:
:
: Others
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According to the results from 651 listed companies in HSX and HNX, revenue and NPAT for 2019 increased by 9% YoY and 12% YoY, respectively. In particular, HSX contributed to 93% of the whole market’s NPAT increase.

HSX’s NPAT in 2019 rose 12% YoY, mainly from the contributions of VHM, CTG, VCB and VIC. The increase in NPAT of these four companies contributed nearly 77% of the HSX NPAT’s increase. The rise in revenue of these four ones only contributed about 34% of the total increment of the HSX

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