21-10-2025VNINDEX1658.8822.451.37% HNXIndex265.472.450.93% UPCOM109.63-0.68-0.62% VN301909.3738.512.06% VN1001826.9626.451.47% HNX30569.966.771.20% VNXALL2864.9539.051.38% VNX503163.6952.071.67% VNMID2372.79-3.39-0.14% VNSML1496.134.820.32% 9M2025 Rubber Market – A New Equilibrium Phase
20-10-2025
: DPR, PHR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- The gap between global demand and consumption of natural rubber has narrowed since June, when China's consumption slowed and rubber began to harvest.
- We realize that the demand for natural rubber is entering a period of slowing growth, reflecting the adjustment of the automobile and tire markets in the context of many uncertainties in the global economy. The sum of supply-demand factors shows that the global natural rubber market is entering a new equilibrium phase, with limited supply while demand slows down.
- We expect natural rubber prices to remain stable around the current level in the medium term, thanks to supply not increasing sharply while inventories are low. In the long term, the price may record a recovery trend again as macro factors improve leading to strong growth of the global automotive industry again, however it will be necessary to monitor more factors affecting the supply and demand of the market.
Trade Update Oct 2025: Stronger-than-expected export performance
17-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Vietnam’s trade activity continued to maintain solid growth momentum two months after the new tariff measures took effect. This outcome contrasts with our earlier expectations for several reasons: 1. Strong FDI-led growth: Vietnam’s tariff rates remain lower than China’s, and the issue of transshipment has not been further clarified. This has allowed Vietnam’s FDI sector to expand exports to the U.S. market and 2. Stable global demand: Despite ongoing trade tensions, global demand has remained resilient. In its latest report, the IMF raised its global growth forecast to 3.2% for 2025 and maintained 3.1% for 2026.
- In 9M2025, Vietnam’s exports grew 16.4% YoY, led by electronics exports (+25.5%) and shipments to the U.S. (+27.7%). The FDI sector continued to outperform the domestic sector, with export growth of 21.6% versus 3.7%, respectively.
- The trade surplus narrowed 16.5% YoY to USD16.8 billion. Within this, the FDI sector’s surplus declined slightly by 2.2% YoY, while the domestic sector’s trade deficit widened 9.6%.
- The fastest-growing export categories to the U.S. market were toys, electronics, chemicals, and plastics & rubber. Meanwhile, key export products of the domestic sector - including seafood, wood products, footwear, and textiles & garments grew at a more moderate pace.
- The U.S.–China trade tensions have escalated again. On October 10, the U.S. President announced a 100% tariff on imports from China, following recent measures restricting semiconductor exports from the U.S. and imposing rare-earth export controls by China over the past month.
- We believe the renewed escalation may serve as a strategic bargaining move by both sides ahead of a potential Trump–Xi meeting at the APEC Summit in late October. Hence, tensions may cool down after the meeting. However, the deep-rooted structural conflicts between the two economies suggest that the U.S.–China trade war is far from over
Sugar sector outlook for the new crop year 2025-26 – Difficulties are not over
16-10-2025
: QNS, SBT
: Sugar
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- As of September 2025, global raw sugar prices reached $0.35/kg, down -21.9% YoY, with further declines expected due to weak U.S. demand amid tariff impacts on consumer confidence, while supply recovers from better-than-expected production in Brazil and Thailand, and anticipated easing of India’s sugar export ban.
- In Vietnam, excess inventories at mills surged post strong 2023-24 and 2024-25 harvests, compounded by rising illegal cane sugar imports and high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS) inflows. Firms with robust sugar output are forced to sacrifice selling prices, and vice versa. As of September 2025, AnKhe sugar prices at mills stood at VND 17,500/kg (-13.0% YoY).
- We note a strong correlation (90%) between domestic sugar price trends and sugar industry stocks like QNS. Thus, we recommend investors closely monitor domestic sugar price movements to make informed short- and long-term investment decisions in sugar-related stocks.
Understanding the Direct Power Purchase Agreement (DPPA) mechanism
15-10-2025
: REE, GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- To serve the goal of renewable energy development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) has issued a guiding document on the direct power purchase and sale mechanism (DPPA) between high-volume consumers and renewable energy plants, bypassing the Vietnam Electricity Corporation (EVN).
- The MoIT proposes 2 methods to implement the DPPA, including: direct connection and virtual connection through the national power system.
- The DPPA mechanism is expected to allow industrial customers to directly access low-cost renewable energy sources and ensure a stable demand for generators.
- Several issues with operating costs, clearing and selling prices are currently hindering the large-scale application of the DPPA mechanism.
ANV – AM Q3/2025 – Ideal circumstances under US tariff fluctuations
14-10-2025
: ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In a meeting with businesses on October 11, 2025, ANV announced business results with revenue in 9M2025 estimated at over VND 4,800 billion and PBT estimated at VND 850 billion. Since then, revenue in Q3/2025 will reach over VND 1,900 billion (+45% YoY) and profit in Q3/2025 is estimated at VND 336 billion (up 9 times YoY; -8% QoQ).
- The company plans that PBT in 2026/2027 is estimated at VND 1,300 billion and VND 1,500 billion with the main markets in the US and Brazil. The strategy of shifting the product structure from Pangasius to Tilapia is being promoted, with the revenue contribution ratio between the two segments expected to be flexibly adjusted from 7:3 to 6:4 depending on each period, in order to diversify risks and take advantage of global competitive advantages.
- Although ANV has not disclosed details on the gross profit margin and net profit margin of the Tilapia segment, based on reasonable assumptions from industry data, we estimate these indicators at around 43% and 33%, respectively. With a maximum Tilapia production capacity of about 48,000 tons (equal to 50% total imported volume of US imports) and an average selling price of 5 USD/kg, the revenue potential from this segment can be up to 6,200 billion VND, bringing an estimated net profit of 2,000 billion VND, making an important contribution to the sustainable growth of the business.
- US President Donald Trump's move to announce additional tariffs of up to 100% on products imported from China starting in November 2025 has opened up a "golden opportunity" for ANV to boost Tilapia exports to the US market, where products from China – the main competitor – will be subject to a record tariff burden. Moreover, if ANV skillfully takes advantage of this period to strengthen its brand position and expand its market share, it can still maintain a long-term competitive advantage even if tariff barriers to China are eased in the future.
- With positive 9M/2025 business results, we expect profit in 2025 to reach about VND 1,000-1,100 billion thanks to tariff information to help ANV operate at full capacity in the remaining months.
CRV – Enterprises with potential urban areas in Hai Phong
13-10-2025
: TCH
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- CRV Real Estate Group JSC (HSX: CRV) operates as a subsidiary of Hoang Huy Financial Group JSC (TCH), a major player headquartered in Hai Phong City. CRV has secured listing approval on HOSE, with trading slated to commence in October 2025, and currently commands the largest land bank within the TCH ecosystem.
- For FY2025 (April 1, 2025–March 31, 2026), management projects robust performance in the real estate segment, driven by the Hoang Huy New City II development. The project is advancing completion of its low-rise precinct, with sales launched since June 2025. Per guidance, CRV anticipates closing and delivering 350 low-rise units over the period, implying revenue of VND 4,100 billion—a 105% YoY surge.
Value and potential of Vietnam's vaccination market – Comparison with some regional countries
10-10-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: Vaccination FRT
- We estimate that the total value of Vietnam’s vaccine market will reach VND 37,055 bn in 2025 (equivalent to USD 1.4 bn). The CARG (2025 – 2030) is estimated at 6.8%/year. The private service group contribute to 84% of total value, as the expectation of vaccination coverage gradually increased due to the unmet demand for EPI of children, adolescents and adults.
- The contribution of EPI vaccines and pediatric vaccine value in general is estimated to decrease when assessing some indicators: (1) The number of infants gradually decrease due to the low birth rate (1.91 newborn/woman in 2025); (2) Severe gender imbalance ratio (110 boys/100 girls in 2024, it is difficult to return to the balanced level of 104/100; (3) Refer to the same trend in China.
- Our estimates of vaccine spending per capita in Vietnam during 2019 - 2024 indicated that it is comparable to Japan’s Pre-COVID-19 level, ranging from 10 - 14 USD/capita. This is expected to rise to 17 USD/capita by 2030, equivalent to 0.5 - 0.6% of disposable income, before gradually declining to around 0.4% by 2030, as disposable income is projected to grow faster than vaccine prices and vaccination costs.
Attractive Income Growth Opportunities for the Banking Sector by Tapping into Crypto Assets and Gold Markets
09-10-2025
: TCB, VPB, MBB, HDB, LPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The Vietnamese financial market has, in recent months, recorded two key policy reforms pertaining to (1) the legalization of the crypto assets market and (2) the liberalization of gold bar import and production activities for qualified enterprises and banks.
- These markets will unlock substantial potential for new financial services development (involving the provision of trading platforms, custody, clearing, and settlement) for financial institutions and commercial banks, driven by their considerable scale: the transaction value of crypto assets by Vietnamese users is estimated at approximately 220 billion USD (Chainalysis, 2025), while the transaction value of gold bars (estimated based on WGC volume data) reaches 4 billion USD, excluding the anticipated enhancement in liquidity and economic circulation following the establishment of a centralized gold exchange.
- For crypto asset services, we anticipate that entities with technological advantages (such as TCEX, with its expertise in blockchain and fintech) or partnerships with international counterparts for technology and infrastructure sharing (as in the cases of SSID and MBB) will likely emerge as frontrunners for initial licensing. In relation to the gold market, we expect the eight largest commercial banks in the system (those meeting eligibility criteria for gold raw material imports and gold bar production) to hold a competitive edge in the early rollout of intermediary trading platforms, owing to their autonomy in physical gold sourcing to facilitate settlement or custody on the centralized gold exchange.
Overview of Vietnam Steel Industry – 8M 2025
08-10-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Consumption: In the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam’s finished steel consumption reached 21 million tons (+17.5% YoY), driven primarily by strong domestic demand (+42% YoY). The domestic market’s share rose to 83%, up from 69% in the same period last year, indicating robust internal demand, while exports remain constrained by ongoing protectionist measures.
- Selling price: Steel prices have seen modest upward adjustments since early September 2025. Looking ahead, prices are expected to maintain their upward trend supported by: (1) higher iron ore costs (about 30% of total production costs), (2) rebounding demand from the domestic real estate sector, and (3) reduced competition pressure from low-priced Chinese steel following the implementation of AD20 anti-dumping duties.
- Investigation into wide-gauge steel tax evasion: The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT) is preparing to launch an investigation into alleged anti-dumping duty evasion by Chinese wide-gauge HRC, following official petitions from Hoa Phat and Formosa. If initiated, this action would aim to protect domestic producers, prevent underpriced imports, and ensure fair market competition within Vietnam’s steel industry.
Vietnam bond market report Sep 2025 - Primary market remains subdued
07-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: Bond
- Primary G-bond market lost momentum amid less favorable conditions, with awarded amount at VND 16.975 bn, up marginally vs. August but still low relative to early-year levels. Cumulative 9M/2025 government bond fundraising reached VND 255.689 tn (51.1% of the annual plan); in Q3 alone, issuance totaled VND 54.3 tn (45.2% of the quarterly plan).
- The tendered/offered ratio printed 48.8% and the awarded/offered ratio 31.4%, still at the lower band despite session-by-session improvement; notably, the State Treasury (VST) offered only VND 54 tn vs. the VND 81 tn plan, signaling cost-of-funds discipline taking precedence over issuance progress.
- Maturity structure remained anchored at 10Y, which accounted for 92.7% of September’s awarded volume; the 10Y line’s own issuance progress reached 93.5% in September.
- On the G-bond secondary market, liquidity softened slightly with total turnover at VND 335 tn (outright VND 240.6 tn – 71.7%, repo VND 94.8 tn); average daily trading fell to VND 12 tn (-15% MoM).
- Corporate bond (CB) primary cooled in line with seasonality to VND 26.205 tn (-48.3% MoM; -52.2% YoY) across 28 deals; 9M issuance still printed VND 353.563 tn (+24.4% YoY). Banks continued to lead but slipped 41% MoM; notable prints: MBB VND 6.000 tn, 3Y, 5.6–5.85%/yr; ACB VND 6.000 tn, 2Y, 5.85%/yr; in real estate, Truong Minh VND 5.000 tn, 1Y, 8.95%/yr.
- Early redemptions were subdued at VND 16.209 tn (-26.3% YoY), driven mainly by banks (-49% MoM).
- The October maturity wall eases to VND 17 tn, reducing near-term refinancing needs and offering issuers a breather. That said, property credit risk remains prominent: 14 issuers (mostly real-estate names) recorded missed principal/interest payments in the month, including large lots at R&H (VND 5.000 tn), S-Home (VND 2.400 tn), Nova (VND 4.300 tn), and BNP Global (VND 2.100 tn).
- CB secondary turned lively again; building on August’s YTD peak of VND 150.7 tn (+38% MoM), September average daily turnover surged to VND 7.538 tn (+45% MoM).
Overview of Vietnam’s Petroleum sector and update on the New legal framework – 7th draft of the Petroleum Business Decree
06-10-2025
: PLX, OIL
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- We believe that Vietnam’s petroleum sector is entering a major restructuring phase, focusing on shifting from a regulated pricing system to a controlled market-based mechanism. From the 3rd to the 7th draft of the new Petroleum Business Decree, the Government has gradually granted enterprises greater pricing autonomy, standardized cost components, and tightened requirements for major distributors. These changes aim to build a more transparent, competitive, and efficient market.
- Compared to the current decree, the 7th draft introduces two key improvements:
- Pricing mechanism: The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) proposes that major distributors and wholesalers to set their own costs and decide wholesale and retail prices, reporting them only to the relevant authorities. The Government will intervene only in cases of abnormal market fluctuations, in line with the 2023 Price Law. Unlike the current decree, which fixes profit margins at VND300/liter and does not regulate input costs, the 7th draft allows companies to determine actual costs and profits. The Government will only publish a reference operating cost as a guideline, to be adjusted annually based on CPI and reviewed periodically.
- Wholesale licensing conditions: The 7th draft also tightens licensing conditions, requiring each major distributor to own at least one dedicated storage terminal and a minimum of 40 directly operated retail stations. This will raise the standard for financial capacity and infrastructure, strengthen supply chains, and increase barriers to entry. In addition, any sale of shares to foreign investors must be approved by the MoIT to ensure proper oversight of foreign capital and protect the domestic market.
- Overall, we expect the gradual transition to market-based pricing to drive sustainable earnings growth for leading listed players such as PLX, OIL, BSR, and GAS, while accelerating industry restructuring, filtering out weaker companies, and improving overall efficiency in the sector.
ACV – Core business operations improved but profit declined due to FX impact
03-10-2025
: ACV
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation ACV
- In Q2-FY25, ACV’s revenue maintained double-digit growth, reaching VND 5,563 billion (+14% YoY), driven by continued strong growth in both international and domestic passenger volumes. International passenger traffic reached 11 million (+12% YoY), while domestic passenger traffic reached 19 million (+12% YoY).
- Financial activities recorded an unrealized FX loss of VND 708 billion (compared with a gain of VND 435 billion in the SPLY). The JPY appreciated by approximately 8% QoQ, which was the primary factor behind ACV’s sharp decline in NPATMI, which stood at VND 2,232 billion (-23% YoY).
- We maintain our full-year 2025 forecast, with ACV’s international passenger volume projected at 45.5 million (+9% YoY) and domestic passenger volume at 72 million (+5% YoY). Passenger growth momentum will continue to support earnings, with revenue projected at VND 21,100 billion (+7% YoY) and NPAT at VND 10,300 billion (+13% YoY). Our target price for ACV is set at VND 60,800 per share, implying a potential return of 9% against the closing price as of October 2, 2025. We reiterate our ACCUMULATE rating.
20-10-2025
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