VIETNAM ETHANOL MARKET OUTLOOK – ENTERING THE “SEEDLING” STAGE
10-07-2026
10-07-2026: QNS
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: VDSC
Tags: QNS Ethanol
- Ethanol is primarily produced using two methods: (1) biological fermentation using sugar- or starch-rich feedstocks; (2) chemical synthesis via the hydration of ethylene derived from petrochemical feedstocks. Among these, biological fermentation accounts for the majority of global ethanol production, as it utilizes renewable agricultural feedstocks with competitive costs in many agricultural economies, while also supporting objectives to reduce greenhouse gas emission.
- On 7 November 2025, the MOIT issued Circular No. 50/2025/TT-BCT, establishing the roadmap for mandatory biofuel blending with conventional fuels in Vietnam. Under the Circular, effective 1 June 2026, all unleaded gasoline that meets the prevailing national technical standards must be blended into E10 gasoline for use in gasoline-powered vehicles nationwide. Meanwhile, E5RON92 gasoline will continue to be produced and supplied until 31 December 2030. We believe this marks a new "seedling" stage for Vietnam's ethanol market, laying the foundation for a new growth cycle over the coming years.
- Although Vietnam has established 07 domestic ethanol plants, local production remains insufficient to fully meet domestic demand, requiring the country to import a meaningful portion of its ethanol consumption each year. Globally, the United States and Brazil are the world's two largest producers and exporters of ethanol, accounting for approximately 70-80% of global output, and also represent Vietnam's primary import sources.
19 KDH – Strategy to expand the land fund in Ho Chi Minh City
09-07-2026
: KDH
: Real Estate
: VDSC
Tags: KDH
- KDH submitted the BT project in central Ho Chi Minh City to the General Meeting of Shareholders for approval, with a total investment of VND 16,369 billion and a capital structure of 15% equity and 85% debt. KDH also proposed increasing the investment level for the Tan Tao A residential project by VND 10,180 billion, bringing total investment to VND 17,917 billion.
- Based on the progress of handing over low-rise products at the Gladia project, we estimate KDH's Q2/2026 revenue to reach VND 374 billion (-64.3% YoY, +33% QoQ), and Q2/2026 NPAT-M is expected to reach VND 88 billion (-55.7% YoY, -69% QoQ).
- We use a net asset valuation (RNAV) methodology to reflect the value of KDH's land fund. Accordingly, the target price for KDH stock is 41,500 VND/share, equivalent to an expected return of 100% compared to the closing price on 9th July, 2026.
Ho Chi Minh City office leasing market 2026: Market demand is gradually diverging
08-07-2026
: REE
: Real Estate
: VDSC
Tags:
- Office supply expanded by 6.1% YoY. Net absorption decreased by 5.2% YoY but increased by 106% QoQ, with absorption demand skewing toward the Grade B segment.
- Grade A rents recovered slightly QoQ after the discounting period for newly launched buildings, while Grade B rents fell 1.3% QoQ and 0.9% YoY due to heightened competitive pressure.
- During 2026–2029, we expect the Ho Chi Minh City market to sustain a high absorption rate amid expanding supply, supported by Grade A demand from FDI enterprises and Grade B supply continuing to optimize rents.
Fishery - Exports in 6M2026 Positive Growth and Awaiting Impact of U.S. Tariffs
07-07-2026
: VHC, ANV, FMC
: Fishery
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- Vietnam’s seafood exports in the first six months of 2026 continued to record positive growth. According to data from the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), cumulative export value in 6M2026 reached USD 5.8 billion, up 12.8% year-over-year (YoY). Of which, shrimp exports reached USD 2.3 billion (+13.6% YoY) and pangasius exports reached USD 1.1 billion (+12.1% YoY).
- Seafood exports in the second half of 2026 (2H2026) are awaiting clarity on specific U.S. tariff policies, including Section 301 tariffs and anti-dumping duties, which will determine the primary export markets going forward.
- Overall consumption across markets is expected to improve significantly compared to 1H2026 as tensions in the Middle East ease, leading to a notable reduction in shipping costs. Additionally, the continued decline in wild-caught seafood supply will help farmed species such as pangasius and tilapia gain market share due to their competitive and attractive pricing.
- Gross margin of seafood enterprises in 2H2026 is expected to remain stable compared to the same period last year. This trend is primarily driven by selling prices declining in tandem with raw material input costs.
Su Tu Trang Phase 2B: The first step toward a recovery in Vietnam's domestic gas supply
06-07-2026
: GAS
: Oil & Gas
: VDSC
Tags:
- The Su Tu Trang Phase 2B project reached first gas in late June 2026, becoming the first large-scale domestic gas project to come onstream in several years. With a designed capacity of around 1.2 bcm of gas per year (equivalent to approximately 21% of Vietnam's domestic gas production in 2025), the project is expected to improve gas supply for the Southeast region, where demand from gas-fired power generation continues to grow.
- The project marks the beginning of a new cycle of domestic gas supply after several years of declining production. Beyond adding new gas volumes to the Nam Con Son system, it also provides a positive signal for the development of other key upstream projects, including Block B – O Mon, Thien Nga – Hai Au, and Ca Voi Xanh. Together, these projects are expected to gradually narrow Vietnam's gas supply-demand gap over the coming years.
- Within Vietnam's gas value chain, we believe PV GAS will be the main beneficiary thanks to its midstream infrastructure, which is directly connected to these new gas sources. Higher gas throughput is expected to improve the utilization of the Nam Con Son 2 – Dinh Co – Phu My gas system while strengthening PV GAS's ability to receive and transport additional domestic gas supplies in the future.
IT Services outlook – Transition from Labor-Intensive to AI-Intensive Model
03-07-2026
: FPT, CMG
: Technologies
: VDSC
Tags: CMG FPT
- The formula “the more personnel, the more revenue” in the traditional IT consulting model appears to be encountering difficulties when examining the total headcount of related companies in 2025. In reality, this is not an anomaly but an early indicator of the industry’s shift from a labor-intensive (human-centric) model — monetizing per headcount or man-hour — to an AI-intensive model that monetizes per project.
- Nevertheless, this transition is still in the “AI adoption phase,” meaning IT consulting models leveraging AI have not yet formed a clear monetization framework. Low-value tasks such as basic coding and testing are facing price pressure as clients expect engineers to deliver significantly larger volumes of work in shorter timeframes thanks to AI automation. This is compounded by multiple global macroeconomic headwinds, causing software outsourcing demand growth to decelerate sharply in 2025, especially following the strong digital transformation wave of 2021–23.
STATE TREASURY DEPOSITS AND SYSTEM LIQUIDITY
02-07-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: VDSC
Tags:
- State Treasury (ST) deposits play an increasingly important role in the liquidity of the banking system in both Primary market and Interbank market (especially during the 2023-2025 period).
- The inclusion of an additional 20% of term State Treasury deposits in the LDR ratio and the relaxation of the SFL ratio (as reflected in Circular No. 25/2026/TT-NHNN) are aimed at supporting liquidity. However, relaxing these ratios (structurally for the system) in the current context will still face challenges: scarcity of VND cash liquidity and persistently high interest rate levels.
- To address the above issue, several key solutions can be considered: (1) in addition to OMO, the USD source available in the system couldn be utilized by expanding the USD/VND swap channel. This would help supplement liquidity and creating more space for the system to "self-stabilize" and rebalance its structure over time. We believe that this solution would not affect foreign exchange reserves or directly impact the exchange rate in the short term; (2) Continue to relax the limit for State Treasury deposits placed at commercial banks from idle budget sources (currently at 50%) to a higher level. However, this tool will become less effective in the context of increased budget revenue and requires coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the SBV; or (3) Exogenous intervention to inject money, which could resolve the balance issue, but this would directly impact the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves.
- We believe that the synchronized implementation of liquidity support policies, combined with the expectation that the Fed will maintain current interest rate levels, will contribute to cooling down interest rates in the near future (expected in Q3).
HPG – Maintain double-digit growth.
01-07-2026
: HPG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- HPG recorded positive sales results during the first 5 months of 2026, highlighted by: 1/ Construction steel volume reaching 2.3 million tons (+7% YoY); and 2/ HRC volume reaching 2.7 million tons (+50% YoY, driven by the commissioning of the DQ02 complex). Notably, in April and May, the company sustained hot-rolled coil sales volumes above 600,000 tons per month (equivalent to an 85% operating utilization rate across production lines), with over 80% of the products consumed in the domestic market.
- We project Q2 revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND 61.6 trillion (+17% QoQ, +72% YoY) and VND 5.6 trillion (-38% QoQ, +31% YoY), respectively.
- We maintain our fair value for HPG at VND 30,800 per share. Combined with an expected 12-month cash dividend of VND 500 per share, the total expected return stands at 32%. Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation for HPG, designating it as our top pick for the building materials sector in 2026.
Textile Industry – Expecting positive signals in the second half of 2026
30-06-2026
: TNG, MSH
: Textile & Garment
: VDSC
Tags:
- In the first 5 months of 2026, the export and import values of Vietnam's textile and garment product groups reached USD 28.2 billion (+1% YoY) and USD 10.6 billion (+1% YoY), respectively. Textiles, garments, and footwear continue to account for the largest share, with the FDI sector leading the growth. Due to declining demand from the US market, the import-export activity of the textile and garment industry has generally grown slowly.
- Vietnam's textile and garment industry is expected to recover in 2H2026 as retailers increase inventory accumulation to meet the high shopping demand of US consumers. This is supported by (1) real expenditure still growing strongly by 5.5% YoY, (2) no signs of reduced spending on clothing, and (3) US retailers having cut inventories to their lowest level since January 2022.
Banking Sector Q2-2026 Earnings Estimates: Double-digit profit growth intact; credit leads, asset quality improves modestly through the cycle
29-06-2026
: VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, HDB, ACB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- We forecast aggregate pre-tax profit (PBT) for our 11-bank coverage at nearly VND83tn in 2Q26, up 20% YoY and 10% QoQ, taking 1H26 PBT growth to 22% YoY. CTG leads the sector on absolute earnings at VND15.4tn (+27% YoY), ahead of VCB and BID, while VPB (+42%), OCB (+35%) and HDB (+31%) top the growth table on favourable base effects and robust credit expansion.
- Net interest income (NII) remains the sector's earnings engine, up 19% YoY. We expect credit growth of 8.1% YTD (c.18% YoY), with the disbursement mix continuing to skew toward medium-to-long tenors. Together with a decline in net new overdue loan formation from the 1Q peak, this lifts asset yields and underpins a modest 5bp QoQ NIM recovery to 3.07%.
- We see net NPL formation easing to nearly VND30tn (0.25% of loans) from VND42tn (0.37%) in 1Q26 on seasonality. On a conservative basis, we still pencil in credit provisioning broadly in line with net NPL formation to preserve the coverage buffer. The headline NPL ratio edges down 5bp to 1.55% — largely a dilution effect from credit growth — while loan-loss coverage (LLR) holds at 94%, materially thinner than the 120–127% range seen in 2023 and a key item to watch into 2H26.
- We reiterate a selective accumulation stance, prioritising: (i) state-owned banks (CTG, BID, VCB) on superior asset quality and funding-cost control, set to benefit from the inclusion of 20% of State Treasury deposits in the LDR calculation (under Circular 08/2026/TT-NHNN, carried over into Circular 25/2026/TT-NHNN), with potential upside should the Treasury raise its deposit allocation to SOCBs in 2H to underpin system liquidity and the government's high-growth ambitions; (ii) high-ROAE names (HDB, MBB), where a wide spread over the cost of equity offers clear re-rating headroom; and (iii) banks with strong 2H26 earnings-recovery momentum off a low base and healthy asset quality (ACB).
ANV – Strong Growth Recorded in Both Pangasius and Tilapia Fillet Segments
26-06-2026
: ANV
: Fishery
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q1/2026 reached VND 1,841 billion (+66% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND 195 billion (+48% YoY), accounting for 24% of the company’s annual revenue target and 18.3% of its NPAT-MI plan. This represents 22% and 18% of our full-year forecasts, respectively.
- Growth was driven by both the pangasius and tilapia segments. Tilapia export volume 259% YoY from a low base as the company ramped up this segment from Q2/2025, while pangasius volume grew 18% YoY (fillet volume +39% YoY). Market structure in Q1/2026 showed a short-term shift in tilapia sales toward Brazil (66%) and the US (20%), compared to 0%/60% in the same period last year. The pangasius segment remained stable, with main markets being Thailand (38%), Brazil (14%), and the US (9%).
- Net revenue in Q2/2026 is estimated at VND2,589bn (+50% yoy) and NPAT-MI is estimated at VND 408bn (+23% yoy). Revenue growth was driven by both pangasius and tilapia segments driven by increased U.S. imports of whitefish (pangasius, tilapia) as cod prices increased by 12% yoy in Q1/2026 as cod catch quotas are expected to decline by 18% yoy to 285 thousand tonnes this year. In particular, the tilapia segment is expected to grow higher thanks to new businesses entering the industry.
- The short-term target price in 2026 according to the target P/B of 1.57x (average 2021-2025) is 26,000 VND/share. Combined with a cash dividend of VND 1,000 over the next 12 months, the total return is 26% at the market price on June 26, 2026, corresponding to a BUY recommendation. The long-term target price will be updated in the next report.
VIB – Q2/26 Earnings forecast: Earnings growth loses momentum
25-06-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
Q2/26 PBT is forecast to reach over VND 2.5 trillion (-9% QoQ, -2% YoY). Cumulative 1H2026 PBT reached VND 5.3 trillion (+7% YoY), completing 48% of the full-year forecast.
2026F PBT is forecast to reach VND 11.1 trillion (+22% YoY). In which, we adjusted several key assumptions including (1) lowering credit growth to 12.4% and NIM decreasing slightly by 4 bps YoY to 3.07%, bringing net interest income up 12% YoY; (2) non-interest income increasing 31% YoY with the main contribution from service fee income increasing 59% (reflecting the one-off income from Visa in Q1/26).
VIB is trading at P/B 1.1x, below its 1-year average of 1.3x, reflecting weakness in the retail segment, the bank's core growth engine, with ROAE in Q1/26 falling to 16.4%, the lowest since 2017. We expect pressure on NIM and asset quality to persist through 2H2026, and accordingly lower our target P/B from 1.3x to 1.2x. Combined with the Residual Income method (Ke: 15.3%, g: 1.2%), we derive a target price of VND 17,900 per share and maintain our ACCUMULATE recommendation.
