21-09-2026VNINDEX1805.05-10.61-0.58% HNXIndex274.65-0.64-0.23% UPCOM126.770.370.29% VN301950.04-14.13-0.72% VN1001849.21-11.68-0.63% HNX30451.220.220.05% VNXALL2863.81-16.43-0.57% VNX503231.6-16.36-0.50% VNMID1886.77-3.20-0.17% VNSML1230.53-2.26-0.18% VSC – Strong growth driven by associates and reversal of securities investment provisions
18-09-2026
: VSC
: Seaports
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, VSC's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 861 bn (+7% YoY) and VND 186 bn (+60% YoY), respectively. The results were more positive than our expectations due to profit contributions from JVs, namely Hai An Transport and Stevedoring JSC (HSX: HAH) and Vinaship JSC (Upcom: VNA), as well as the reversal of provisions for impairment of trading securities.
- We have revised up our 2026 NPAT-MI forecast to VND 383 bn (+12% YoY), 46% higher than our previous projection. Key changes include: (1) increased contribution from joint ventures and associates from VND 117 bn to VND 365 bn, with HAH contributing VND 301 bn and VNA VND 61 bn, (2) a 46% increase in interest expenses as VSC invested in two vessels, Green Park and Green Time, with a loan of VND 710 bn and (3) a 22% increase in minority interest as VGR has not yet invested in the VND 615 bn RTG crane system, which helped reduce depreciation expenses.
- We recommend BUY with a target price of 22,600 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 500 VND/share, corresponding to an expected return of 75% based on the closing price on September 17, 2026.
DPR – High rubber selling prices support Q3 earnings
18-09-2026
: DPR
: Chemicals
: VDSC
Tags: DPR
- Q3/2026 is expected to recover strongly compared to the previous quarter as the peak rubber harvesting season begins. We project net revenue to reach VND 507 billion (+81% QoQ, +5% YoY) and NPAT-MI to reach VND 135 billion (+64% QoQ, -2% YoY).
- Regarding the rubber segment, revenue is estimated to increase 12% YoY due to an average selling price estimated at VND 64 million/ton (+31.7% YoY). Revenue from tree liquidation is expected to decrease sharply by 38% YoY (approximately 130 ha), while other segments (IP, rubber products) are expected to increase by +20% YoY.
- Revenue increases slightly by 5% YoY, but the structure shifts as the proportion of the rubber segment (lower margin) increases, while tree liquidation (higher margin) decreases, pulling the gross margin to approximately 37% (from 40.4% in Q2/2026). Absolute profit still grows well compared to Q2 due to the estimated sharp increase in rubber selling prices.
The repricing tailwind for NIM in the short-term
16-09-2026
: ACB, SHB, SSB, STB, VPB, TCB, TPB, EIB, HDB, MSB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The sector's net repricing gap within 12 months turned positive in Q3-2025 and reached +1.1% of total assets in Q2-2026 — the highest since 2020. A balance sheet in this position means a rise in interest rates becomes a tailwind for NIM expansion.
- At shorter horizons the gap is far larger: positive VND 1,200–1,300 trillion over the three-to-six-month window, against just under VND 240 trillion over the full twelve months. The NIM expansion effect will therefore be concentrated in the next one to two quarters.
- The repricing effect on profitability differs sharply across banks. Based on interest-rate risk disclosures as at 30 June 2026, ACB, SHB, SSB, STB and VPB stand to benefit most over the next one to two quarters; TCB, TPB, EIB, HDB and MSB sit on the opposite side.
VIB – Asset quality risks remain, increasing pressure on credit costs
15-09-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Q3/26F PBT is estimated at VND2.5tn (+6% QoQ, +25% YoY), bringing 9M26 PBT growth to 9% YoY and achieving 73% of our full-year forecast. Credit growth accelerated to 8% YTD, while NIM improved to 3.15%, supporting a 2% QoQ and 9% YoY increase in total operating income. However, net NPL formation is expected to remain elevated at VND1.5tn, keeping provision expenses flat QoQ and up 8% YoY.
- We forecast 2026F PBT at VND10.6tn (+16% YoY), 5% below our previous forecast, mainly due to a 17% downward revision to non-interest income and a 16% increase in provision expenses. In contrast, operating expenses are expected to decline 14% following workforce optimization.
- VIB is currently trading at 1.0x P/B, below its 1-year average of 1.3x. We believe persistent asset quality pressures and elevated provision expenses will continue into 2H26, limiting room for re-rating. Our current target price is VND16,250/share, implying 2026-27F P/B multiples of 1.16x/1.03x, respectively, and 20% upside from the Sep 15, 2026 closing price.
GEG – Business results Q2/2026: Solar power segment is a bright spot in the low quarter
14-09-2026
: GEG
: Power
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2/2026, GEG recorded revenue of VND 580 billion (-7% yoy, -24% yoy), profit after tax – majority investor (NPAT-MI) decreased by 83% yoy (86% yoy). Net profit declined when the Company no longer recorded financial revenue from capital transfer as in Q2/2025.
- Total power generation decreased by 8% yoy (30% yoy) when (1) hydropower production decreased by 41% yoy, due to the influence of the El Niño phase; (2) wind power production decreased by 11% yoy. However, solar power generation improved by 8% yoy after the Duc Hue 2 plant went into commercial operation. For Q3 2026, we estimate that GEG's power generation may decrease by 5%, as hydropower production is estimated to decline by 25% yoy due to the influence of the El Niño phase.
- In 2026, we forecast GEG's revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND2,851 billion (-5% yoy) and VND391 billion (-44% yoy). Currently, GEG stock is trading at a P/E of 11x and an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, lower than the 5-year average (18.4x and 9.3x). We maintain a BUY recommendation with a target price of VND20,400/share.
VGI – A bigger ship sailing through bigger “waves”
11-09-2026
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: VDSC
Tags: VGI
- Net revenue in 2Q26 reached VND 13,610 billion (+29% YoY), in line with our expectations. Contributions from Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia (SEA) accounted for 51%/13%/39%, respectively, with growth rates of 29%/28%/18% YoY. Africa and Latin America continued to deliver strong growth, supported by the expansion of telecom network coverage (increasing subscriber numbers) and relatively high average revenue per user (ARPU) compared with developed markets, alongside digital services that are driving a new wave of changes in payment habits. Meanwhile, we believe that the SEA markets have entered a mature stage in telecom services, with double-digit growth being driven mainly by a higher contribution from digital services.
- NPAT-MI in 2Q26 reached VND 3,552 billion (+50% YoY), exceeding our expectations by 34%, with NPAT-MI margin reaching 26% (+4 ppts YoY). This result was mainly driven by: (1) gross margin remaining high at 51%, despite the impact of higher input costs for IT and telecom equipment and memory, as rapid revenue growth and significant economies of scale enabled VGI to better control its margins; (2) a significant reduction in provisions for operating receivables (-136% YoY); and (3) improved performance from financial investments and stable exchange rates.
- We maintain our positive view and remain positive on VGI’s growth quality, underpinned by its long-term investment strategy in infrastructure, technology, and human resources across its local markets. This model is helping the company improve its financial health, generate stable cash flows to the parent company, and build a foundation for expansion into new markets. Given the above-expectation results in 1H26, we see room to slightly raise our 2026–2027 forecasts and will provide further details in subsequent reports. Our latest target price is VND 99,300/share, implying an ACCUMULATE recommendation with an expected return of 18% based on the closing price as of September 11, 2026. The company is expected to pay a cash dividend of VND 3,300/share for FY2025 on October 15, 2026 (ex-dividend date: September 18, 2026), implying a dividend yield of ~4%.
The absence of policy guidance tools from the Fed and the limitations involved
10-09-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: VDSC
Tags:
- The Fed's lack of Forward Guidance forces the market to "chart its own course" for interest rates, causing volatility in expectations to surge. When the Fed Chair limits policy guidance, the market cannot stop forming expectations; it merely shifts from relying on the Fed's interest rate path to constructing its own path based on each piece of information. And as that path is constantly rewritten, interest rate expectations can reverse very quickly even if the economic fundamentals have not changed accordingly; the greatest risk is not just whether the Fed raises or holds rates, but the level of instability in policy expectations.
- In reality, the pressure on UST yields is structural, stemming from more than just short-term macroeconomic data. Behind the daily fluctuations in yields are three factors that are difficult to reverse quickly: a large budget deficit, a continuously growing debt scale, and the massive refinancing needs of the U.S. Treasury. At the same time, some traditional sources of demand, such as China and Japan, can no longer be considered stable marginal buyers. If the marginal buyer weakens, the market may require higher yields to absorb the UST supply. The consequence will be to push the burden onto the Fed in a context where tools like Quantitative Easing (QE) or Operation Twist are limited.
- The Fed can reduce liquidity pressure but cannot solve the root problem of UST supply. QE, QT, Operation Twist, or changes in issuance structure only reallocate who holds UST and at what maturity, without eliminating the Treasury's need to continue issuing debt to fund deficits and refinance debt. Against this backdrop, maintaining the U.S. Treasury’s buyback program on a larger scale is essential; furthermore, the possibility remains that the Fed could adjust banking system regulations—such as modifying leverage ratios-to enable the banking sector to absorb a greater volume of U.S. Treasuries in the future.
VNM – Heading toward a new profit milestone
09-09-2026
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: VDSC
Tags: VNM
- VNM’s Q2-2026 results exceeded our expectation by 16%, with net revenue reaching VND 18,847 bn (+12.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 3,167 bn (+28.0% YoY). The outperformance was driven by solid revenue growth across all segments, favorable input costs, and improved effectiveness of sales support campaigns.
- Specifically, gross margin reached 43.5% (+83bps QoQ, +170bps YoY), higher than our 42.9% forecast, thanks to milk powder prices declining approximately 20.8% YoY, lower unit production costs amid stronger-than-expected sales volume, and a clearer pass-through of selling price increases. Meanwhile, SG&A exp /Net revenue stood at 24.5% (-138bps QoQ, -42bps YoY), below our 25.3% forecast. Although advertising, promotion and display expenses hit a quarterly record of VND 3,131 bn (16.6% of net revenue), ROI remained solid, helping contain costs in a still-sluggish dairy market.
- After Q2-2026 results, VNM is currently trading at a trailing PE of 11.6x and a 2026 forward PE of 11-12x, significantly lower than the 16.0x average during 2021-25 when VNM entered a slowdown phase with revenue CAGR of only 1.1%/year versus 7.2%/year in 2016-20. With growth recovering to double digits this year and remaining a large-cap stock with substantial foreign room, VNM is well-suited for a dividend investment strategy (dividend yield of 7.4%/year) or for catching the market upgrade wave when the company’s PE is re-rated in line with the VNIndex (VNM could see increased weighting by foreign funds thanks to its position as a leading large-cap consumer staple company with high liquidity).
DPM – Exports drive growth momentum in Q2/2026
08-09-2026
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- In Q2/2026, the company recorded net revenue of VND 6,986 billion (+32% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 906 billion (+125% YoY). The main growth drivers came from the trading segment (+78% YoY), along with the Urea and NPK segments, which together rose 13% YoY. Notably, the Urea segment posted a 182% YoY surge in export volume to 80.6 thousand tons, offsetting a 49% decline in domestic sales volume amid higher fertilizer prices.
- Gross profit margin improved from 17% to 24%, primarily driven by a 48% YoY increase in Urea selling prices, which lifted the segment’s gross margin to 35% (from 23% in the same period last year). This was further supported by the trading segment’s gross margin expanding to 5% from 2% in the same period last year, thanks to higher prices of trading products such as potash and DAP. On the financial front, financial income nearly doubled to VND 187 billion on the back of higher deposit interest, while financial expenses declined 12% to VND 36.2 billion due to lower foreign exchange losses. However, administrative expenses surged 121% YoY to VND 413 billion, mainly due to a VND 130 billion provision for the R&D fund and higher staff costs. Selling expenses also rose 17% YoY, driven by a 93% increase in staff and social welfare costs.
- Q2/2026 results were largely in line with our forecasts. Therefore, we maintain our 2026 NPAT-MI forecast at VND 1,918 billion and reiterate our BUY recommendation with an unchanged target price of VND 26,600 per share. Combined with the expected cash dividend of VND 1,500 over the next 12 months, the total expected return stands at 23% relative to the closing price on September 08, 2026, based on the view that fertilizer prices are forming a short-term bottom and are likely to rebound in Q4/2026 ahead of the main Winter-Spring crop season.
IDC – Replenishing quality land bank for the industrial park business
07-09-2026
: IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 1H2026, IDC posted revenue of VND3.76tn (+6% YoY) and gross profit of VND1.24tn (+13% YoY). Industrial park (IP) land and infrastructure leasing generated VND1.2tn of revenue (+43% YoY) on 31ha of land recognized during the period, mostly contracts signed as MOUs in 2025; signed-but-undelivered contracts stood at c.50ha as of end-June 2026 – underpinning further land-leasing revenue recognition in the coming quarters.
- For the two new IPs (Tan Phuoc 01 IP – Tien Giang and Vinh Quang IP – Hai Phong), the company completed site clearance as of 1H2026, paving the way for groundbreaking and infrastructure construction from September 2026.
TNG – Core operations regain growth momentum by boosting exports to Europe and Canada
04-09-2026
: TNG
: Textile & Garment
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 2,913 bn (+15% YoY) and VND 150 bn (+25% YoY), respectively. Result in Q2-FY26 were in line with our forecasts (projected revenue and NPAT were VND 2,890 bn and VND 147 bn, respectively).
- Accumulated 6M2026, revenue and NPAT reached VND 4,866 bn (+21% YoY) and VND 210 bn (+29% YoY), respectively, completing 51%/47% of the annual plan and 47%/46% of our forecast.
- We have upwardly adjusted our 2026 revenue and NPAT forecasts for TNG to VND 10,434 bn (+20% YoY) and VND 455 bn (+16% YoY), respectively, which are 10% and 4% higher than our previous forecast. Amid the high interest rate environment of 2026, interest expenses have risen faster than interest income due to TNG's high financial leverage, with debt accounting for 55% of total capital. Consequently, the upward adjustment for NPAT is lower than that for net revenue. EPS for 2026F is estimated at 3,373 VND.
- We maintain our recommendation of BUY for TNG with a target price of 31,200 VND/share, along with a dividend of 2,000 VND/share over the next 12 months, representing a total return of 99% based on the closing price on Sep 03,2026.
Should the Fed raise interest rates while the global bond market is tightening?
03-09-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: VDSC
Tags:
- The global financial market is entering a repricing phase that is far more complex than a typical monetary tightening cycle. Most notably, this is not confined to any single country; government bond yields are rising in unison to levels unseen in years, or even decades.
- This is what distinguishes the current situation from a typical bond sell-off. Countries with vastly different economic structures, inflation profiles, and monetary policies are all experiencing simultaneous rises in long-term government bond yields . This suggests that it is no longer simply a story of "rising inflation, central banks raising rates." The global bond market is currently reflecting a broader "basket" of factors, including inflation uncertainty, higher real yields, rising term premiums, fiscal deficits, and increasing government bond supply. In other words, the bond market is performing part of the tightening process itself.
- In this context, if the Fed raises interest rates, the story is not just about adding 25bps to the Fed Funds Rate. It could reinforce expectations that major central banks are entering a synchronized tightening cycle, potentially causing long-term government bond yields to continue rising, term premiums to expand further, and pressure on capital markets to intensify. This is why we believe the Fed may not need to raise rates at this time, even if inflation risks have not entirely vanished. On the contrary, the most logical choice might be to keep rates unchanged at current levels while maintaining a hawkish policy tone.
- For Vietnam, the issue of banking system liquidity becomes more notable when considering the shift in the maturity profile of funding sources. As the proportion of long-term funding increases, the actual cost of funds may be significantly higher than what is reflected solely by the average deposit interest rate, and liquidity pressure will not only exist in the long term but is likely to spill over into the short term as well. The issue then is no longer merely about the interest rate environment, but becomes a matter of the structure and circulation capacity of capital throughout the entire system.
18-09-2026
21 