Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Rồng Việt

TNG – Core operations regain growth momentum by boosting exports to Europe and Canada

04-09-2026

: TNG

: Textile & Garment

: VDSC

In Q2-FY26, revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 2,913 bn (+15% YoY) and VND 150 bn (+25% YoY), respectively. Result in Q2-FY26 were in line with our forecasts (projected revenue and NPAT were VND 2,890 bn and VND 147 bn, respectively).
Accumulated 6M2026, revenue and NPAT reached VND 4,866 bn (+21% YoY) and VND 210 bn (+29% YoY), respectively, completing 51%/47% of the annual plan and 47%/46% of our forecast.
We have upwardly adjusted our 2026 revenue and NPAT forecasts for TNG to VND 10,434 bn (+20% YoY) and VND 455 bn (+16% YoY), respectively, which are 10% and 4% higher than our previous forecast. Amid the high interest rate environment of 2026, interest expenses have risen faster than interest income due to TNG's high financial leverage, with debt accounting for 55% of total capital. Consequently, the upward adjustment for NPAT is lower than that for net revenue. EPS for 2026F is estimated at 3,373 VND.
We maintain our recommendation of BUY for TNG with a target price of 31,200 VND/share, along with a dividend of 2,000 VND/share over the next 12 months, representing a total return of 99% based on the closing price on Sep 03,2026.

Should the Fed raise interest rates while the global bond market is tightening?

03-09-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: VDSC

The global financial market is entering a repricing phase that is far more complex than a typical monetary tightening cycle. Most notably, this is not confined to any single country; government bond yields are rising in unison to levels unseen in years, or even decades.
This is what distinguishes the current situation from a typical bond sell-off. Countries with vastly different economic structures, inflation profiles, and monetary policies are all experiencing simultaneous rises in long-term government bond yields . This suggests that it is no longer simply a story of "rising inflation, central banks raising rates." The global bond market is currently reflecting a broader "basket" of factors, including inflation uncertainty, higher real yields, rising term premiums, fiscal deficits, and increasing government bond supply. In other words, the bond market is performing part of the tightening process itself.
In this context, if the Fed raises interest rates, the story is not just about adding 25bps to the Fed Funds Rate. It could reinforce expectations that major central banks are entering a synchronized tightening cycle, potentially causing long-term government bond yields to continue rising, term premiums to expand further, and pressure on capital markets to intensify. This is why we believe the Fed may not need to raise rates at this time, even if inflation risks have not entirely vanished. On the contrary, the most logical choice might be to keep rates unchanged at current levels while maintaining a hawkish policy tone.
For Vietnam, the issue of banking system liquidity becomes more notable when considering the shift in the maturity profile of funding sources. As the proportion of long-term funding increases, the actual cost of funds may be significantly higher than what is reflected solely by the average deposit interest rate, and liquidity pressure will not only exist in the long term but is likely to spill over into the short term as well. The issue then is no longer merely about the interest rate environment, but becomes a matter of the structure and circulation capacity of capital throughout the entire system.

329

Real Estate – Urban Development Law

03-09-2026

: KDH, NLG, HDC, BCM, VHM, VIC, PHR, GVR, SIP, DPR, TRC

: Real Estate, Industrial Land RE

: VDSC

The National Assembly passed the Urban Development Law on August 24 (465/474 votes). It will take effect early in HCMC from September 1st, 2026, and take general effect from October 1st, 2026. While the law does not create a new real estate policy, it transfers decision-making authority from the central government to HCMC. It also supplements the limited-term pilot mechanisms of Resolutions 98, 171, and 201 with permanent institutions.
The two channels that will have the most direct impact on businesses include: 1/ The right to approve investment policies with a mechanism to remove project obstacles, 2/ The right to decide on land use norms and separate site clearance into independent projects.
According to our assessment, VHM/VIC, KDH, BCM, PHR are the most obvious beneficiaries thanks to the land fund concentrated within HCMC’s boundaries. While NLG benefits indirectly through the coordination mechanism of the Southeast region. We have a positive assessment of the long-term direction but maintain a neutral view on quantitative terms until the People's Council of HCMC passes about 78-101 implementation resolutions in September.

Vietnam Packaging Paper Industry: From capacity consolidation to a new investment cycle

28-08-2026

: DHC

: Materials

: VDSC

The capacity consolidation process has improved the packaging paper supply-demand balance over the 2025–2026 period. Approximately 2 million tons/year of paper production capacity in Bac Ninh was suspended in 2025, while packaging paper consumption grew by 13% YoY to 6.7 million tons, thereby supporting paper prices at an elevated level.
A new investment cycle is gradually filling the supply gap and reshaping the industry structure. New capacity is concentrated in larger-scale plants; meanwhile, according to the Vietnam Pulp and Paper Association (VPPA), the designed capacity of packaging paper is projected to increase from 5.74 million tons in 2025 to 7.94 million tons in 2027, and approximately 9.38 million tons by 2030.
Positive demand growth supports the absorption capacity for new supply, but competitive pressure may intensify starting in 2027. The VPPA expects consumption of packaging paper and tissue to grow at an average rate of 8–10% per annum during the 2026–2030 period. However, as new capacity comes onstream, the market's ability to absorb this supply will become a critical factor determining price dynamics and the degree of industry competition.

NT2– Q1/2026 business performance: The contract output rate decreased, pressed on gross margin

27-08-2026

: NT2

: Power

: VDSC

Q2/2026, Nhon Trach 2 (NT2:HSX) reported revenue of VND2,825bn (+36% YoY), net profit after tax – majority investor (NPAT-MI) of VND308bn (-6% YoY); completing 60%/113% of the Company's revenue plan and profit before tax plan. Electricity output (Qm) reached 1,196 million kWh, up 54% YoY.
Gross profit margin decreased by 5 pps YoY, due to (1) Contractual output (Qc) increased by only 8% YoY, Qc/Qm ratio decreased by 42 pps YoY, resulting in the plant no longer receiving revenue from CfDs and putting pressure on non-Qc sales; (2) adjust the accounting of repair and maintenance costs under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance.
For the full year of 2026, we forecast NT2's net revenue to reach VND9,573 billion (+23% YoY), with total power generation for the year reaching 4,073 million kWh (+31% YoY). Net profit is estimated at VND873bn (-17% YoY), NT2's gross margin may decrease to 10.5% (-3.5% YoY) when the company no longer records a Qc/Qm ratio > 100% as in 2025.

THG – 6M/2026 Results: Short-term pressure, profit recognition expected to shift to the second half of the year

26-08-2026

: THG

: Materials

: VDSC

6M/2026 results below expectations, concrete profit margin is a bright spot: In the first 6 months of 2026, revenue reached $1,003 billion VND (-12% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company reached $59 billion VND (-15% YoY), completing 39% and 37% of the annual plan, respectively – lower than our expectations due to weak concrete performance in Q1 and weak residential real estate in Q2. Conversely, the gross margin for the concrete & construction materials segment reached 23.5% in Q2/2026 (+2.6 pps QoQ; +3 pps YoY) – a high level in the 2019-2026 period, reflecting the ability to increase selling prices and manage inventory well; the overall gross margin reached 21.2% while the net margin decreased to 5.0%.
Valuation View: We expect business results in the second half of the year to improve thanks to the peak construction season, demand for precast concrete for infrastructure projects, and the recognition of revenue from the Gia Thuan 2 industrial cluster. After a discount of approximately 28% since June 2026, the stock is trading at trailing P/E and P/B of 7.5x and 1.3x – lower than the 5-year average, which may provide room for valuation improvement.

DRC – Global macro headwinds weigh heavily on 2026 business outlook

25-08-2026

: DRC

: Automobiles

: VDSC

DRC’s Q2-2026 results beat our expectation by 22%, with net revenue reaching VND1,176 bn (+1.8% QoQ, -14.6% YoY) and net profit after tax of VND32 bn (+95.5% QoQ, flat YoY), still benefiting from low-cost inventory carried over from Q1-2026. Input material costs continued to trend favorably YoY, including natural rubber (-3.3% YoY), synthetic rubber (+1.5% YoY), chemicals such as sulphur & silica (-0.7% YoY), carbon black (-14.1% YoY), and steel cord (-6.4% YoY). DRC’s three-month inventory policy allows raw material cost declines to flow through to gross margin relatively quickly (with a lag of approximately one quarter).
DRC is trading at a reasonable valuation with a trailing PE of 13.0x and a 2026 forward PE of 15.5x, in line with the industry average of 13.0x. This is particularly notable given that the Company’s net profit after tax is expected to decline 22% in 2026 (in our view), as the key growth driver (domestic bias tires tracking industrial production) remains insufficient to offset pressure from elevated rubber/sulphur/steel prices and rising doubtful receivables in international markets, which have pushed net margin to a 15-year low. DRC has also released its Q3-2026 business plan, which aligns with our view above, targeting net revenue of VND1,132 bn (-3.7% QoQ, -8.3% YoY) and pretax profit of VND30 bn (-25.0% QoQ, -40.2% YoY).

Outright Purchase Without Recourse of Documents Under Letters of Credit Issued by the Bank Itself – A Trade Finance Channel Outside the Credit Quota and Loan Classification Framework

24-08-2026

: SHB, CTCB2201, MBB, VPB, HDB, VCB

: Banking

: Tung Do

Since Q4 2024, a new line item has appeared simultaneously within Other Assets on the balance sheets of many Vietnamese commercial banks: receivables from the outright purchase without recourse of documents presented under letters of credit (L/Cs) issued by the bank itself. This is a self-funded variant of forfaiting, in which the bank both issues the L/C and commits its own capital to buy back the documents presented under that same L/C.
Across the banks that disclose this item, the aggregate balance more than doubled over six quarters, rising from roughly VND 75,000 billion at end-2024 to nearly VND 158,000 billion as at Q2 2026 – equivalent to about 92% of the peak UPAS L/C balance recorded in 2022. SHB and TCB alone accounted for close to two-thirds of the group total as at the end of Q2 2026.
This shift is tied to two circulars that took effect on the same date, 1 July 2024. Circular 21/2024/TT-NHNN on L/C operations tightened UPAS L/C (usance letters of credit payable at sight) by requiring the outstanding balance to be counted towards the customer's total credit exposure once the beneficiary has been paid under the L/C commitment — previously this activity was not treated as credit extension and was not recorded as a loan. Effective on the same date, Circular 31/2024/TT-NHNN on asset classification excluded the outright purchase without recourse of documents under L/Cs issued by the bank itself from the scope of loan classification and specific provisioning. The outcome is that UPAS L/C, one trade finance instrument, was tightened while its substitute remains outside the credit supervision framework.
Our view: This is a legitimate activity conducted in accordance with SBV guidance. The underlying credit risk on the L/C applicant, however, does not disappear — it simply moves to a different position on the balance sheet. In its new location the item falls outside the credit growth quota, requires no loan classification, carries no provisioning, and is excluded from liquidity ratios. We believe that (i) credit growth, asset quality and liquidity metrics for banks with large exposures should be read on an adjusted basis, and (ii) the possibility that the SBV narrows the exemption under Circular 31 is a policy risk that should be priced into the investment case.

111

FRT – A new profit margin level for Long Chau following 2Q26 results

21-08-2026

: FRT

: Retailing

: VDSC

FRT delivered impressive 2Q26 results, with net revenue reaching VND 15,626 billion (+37.2% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 341 billion (+187.8% YoY). Long Chau was the key contributor to earnings growth, with NPAT-MI of VND 340 billion (+133% YoY, equivalent to an NPAT-MI margin of 3.1% (+1.2 ppts YoY), marking a new record high for the chain. Meanwhile, FPT Shop was barely profitable, as earnings were largely eroded by a 99.3% YoY increase in interest expenses and the company’s limited ability to pass higher input costs through to retail prices.
FRT is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 22.5x, above the retail sector average of 15.0-18.0x but below the Company's 5-year historical average of 30.3x. This suggests that the market has already priced in a substantial portion of Long Chau's growth expectations over the past three years, which explains the relatively subdued share price performance for much of the past year before the recent rally following 2Q26 results. Nevertheless, we remain constructive on FRT's long-term outlook, supported by Long Chau's expanding leadership in Vietnam's pharmacy retail market in terms of both network scale and profitability, FPT Shop's ongoing recovery and the improving profitability of the vaccination center chain. Given Long Chau's stronger-than-expected earnings contribution and profitability improvement in 2Q26, we see room to revise up our 2026 forecasts and will provide detailed updates in our upcoming reports.

OCB – Solid credit growth supports earnings, while rising group 2 loans weigh on NIM and asset quality

20-08-2026

: OCB

: Banking

: Trang To

OCB’s 2Q26 PBT reached over VND1.2tn, up strongly by 25% YoY. Accordingly, 1H26 PBT reached nearly VND2.5tn (+31% YoY), achieving only 38% of our full-year forecast. OCB’s 2Q26 results were notable for strong growth in total operating income (+18% QoQ, +21% YoY), mainly driven by (1) a sharp acceleration in credit growth, reaching 11% YTD in 2Q26 (1Q26: 2.6% YTD), and (2) a significant expansion in non-interest income (+100% QoQ, +47% YoY). However, OCB continues to face asset quality risks, as Stage 2 loans increased 32% QoQ, putting pressure on NIM and provision expenses.
In 2H26, although the bank has fully utilized its credit growth quota allocated at the beginning of the year (~11%) and the likelihood of an additional quota being granted remains low, NIM could become the key driver of interest income growth. Specifically, liquidity indicators as of end-2Q26 still had room for improvement (LDR at 74% versus the regulatory cap of 85%, while SMLR was close to 30% versus the newly regulated cap of 40%), creating room for the bank to expand its medium- and long-term loan portfolio. In addition, the plan to recover more than VND1tn of NPLs, including on-balance-sheet bad debts, should also support NIM improvement.
Our current 2026F forecast: PBT is expected to reach nearly VND6.5tn, equivalent to 29% YoY growth. In 1H26, total operating income, operating expenses, and provision expenses reached 43%, 43%, and 57%, respectively, of our full-year forecasts. OCB’s current share price stands at VND11,650/share, implying a 7% upside from the current market price. We will update our forecasts and valuation in subsequent reports.

GMD – Earnings breakthrough driven by dual momentum from core business growth and divestment

19-08-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: VDSC

In Q2-FY26, net revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,762 bn (+18% YoY) and VND 1,133 bn (+153% YoY), respectively. Container throughput at major port clusters, including Nam Dinh Vu, Binh Duong & Phuoc Long PIP, and Gemalink, reached 350 thousand TEUs (-10% YoY), 421 thousand TEUs (+5% YoY), and 577 thousand TEUs (+27% YoY), respectively.
We have revised our 2026 forecasts upward, with net revenue and NPAT-MI expected to reach VND 6,694 bn (+12% YoY) and VND 2,620 bn (+49% YoY), respectively, 6%/17% higher than previous projections due to capital transfer transactions in Q2-FY26. We recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of 92,600 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 2,200 VND/share, corresponding to an expected return of 19% based on the closing price on August 18, 2026.

ANV – Q2/2026 Business Results Impacted by Rising Input Costs Amid Declining Selling Prices

18-08-2026

: ANV

: Fishery

: VDSC Research

Net revenue in Q2/2026 reached VND 1,937 billion (+12% YoY), while net profit after tax attributable to the parent company (NPAT-MI) came in at VND 134.8 billion (-59% YoY). Revenue growth was mainly driven by pangasius sales volume of 17,812 tons (+21% YoY) and tilapia volume of 4,802 tons (+59% YoY), despite a 17% YoY decline in tilapia selling prices. The export market structure continued to shift notably, with pangasius increasingly directed toward Thailand (sale volume portion rising to 24% from 15%), while declining in Mexico and China. Meanwhile, Tilapia exports were concentrated in Brazil (64%) and the US (27%).
Gross margin in Q2/2026 fell to 16% from 28% in the same period last year, primarily due to a 63% YoY surge in fishmeal costs and a 17% YoY drop in tilapia selling prices to USD 4.1/kg. Selling expenses reached VND 119.4 billion (+26% YoY), administrative expenses rose 20% YoY to VND 21 billion, and financial activities recorded a net loss of VND 13 billion.
For Q3/2026, we project net revenue of VND 2,215 billion (+11% YoY, +14% QoQ), supported by pangasius volume of 22,194 tons (+10% YoY) at an average selling price of USD 2.2/kg (+12% YoY) and tilapia volume of 4,802 tons (+39% YoY), despite a 21% decline in tilapia prices to USD 4.0/kg. Gross profit is estimated at VND 332 billion (-32% YoY) with gross margin narrowing to 15% (-940 bps YoY), as cost of goods sold rose 10% YoY on the back of a 54% increase in fishmeal prices and a 10% rise in soybean meal prices. Selling expenses are also expected to increase 13% YoY due to higher freight rates. As a result, NPAT-MI is forecast at VND 147 billion (-48% YoY, +9% QoQ).
For full-year 2026, we revise down our revenue forecast from VND 8,382 billion to VND 8,250 billion (+19% YoY) and NPAT-MI from VND 1,087 billion to VND 700 billion (-30% YoY). This implies EPS and BVPS of VND 2,626/share and VND 15,511/share, respectively. Our short-term target price for 2026, based on a target P/B of 1.57x (2021–2025 average), is VND 24,400/share. Combined with an expected cash dividend of VND 500/share over the next 12 months, the total expected return is 48% from the market price as of 18 August 2026, corresponding to a BUY recommendation. The long-term target price will be updated in the next report.

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TNG – Core operations regain growth momentum by boosting exports to Europe and Canada

04-09-2026

: TNG

: Textile & Garment

: VDSC

Tags:

Should the Fed raise interest rates while the global bond market is tightening?

03-09-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: VDSC

Tags:

Real Estate – Urban Development Law

03-09-2026

: KDH, NLG, HDC, BCM, VHM, VIC, PHR, GVR, SIP, DPR, TRC

: Real Estate, Industrial Land RE

: VDSC

Tags: Real estate Urban Development Law

Vietnam Packaging Paper Industry: From capacity consolidation to a new investment cycle

28-08-2026

: DHC

: Materials

: VDSC

Tags:

NT2– Q1/2026 business performance: The contract output rate decreased, pressed on gross margin

27-08-2026

: NT2

: Power

: VDSC

Tags:

THG – 6M/2026 Results: Short-term pressure, profit recognition expected to shift to the second half of the year

26-08-2026

: THG

: Materials

: VDSC

Tags: Concrete

DRC – Global macro headwinds weigh heavily on 2026 business outlook

25-08-2026

: DRC

: Automobiles

: VDSC

Tags:

Outright Purchase Without Recourse of Documents Under Letters of Credit Issued by the Bank Itself – A Trade Finance Channel Outside the Credit Quota and Loan Classification Framework

24-08-2026

: SHB, CTCB2201, MBB, VPB, HDB, VCB

: Banking

: Tung Do

Tags:

FRT – A new profit margin level for Long Chau following 2Q26 results

21-08-2026

: FRT

: Retailing

: VDSC

Tags: FRT

OCB – Solid credit growth supports earnings, while rising group 2 loans weigh on NIM and asset quality

20-08-2026

: OCB

: Banking

: Trang To

Tags:

GMD – Earnings breakthrough driven by dual momentum from core business growth and divestment

19-08-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: VDSC

Tags:

ANV – Q2/2026 Business Results Impacted by Rising Input Costs Amid Declining Selling Prices

18-08-2026

: ANV

: Fishery

: VDSC Research

Tags:

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