Fertilizer Industry – Fertilizer Price Trends Amid Middle East Tensions
24-06-2025
: DCM, DPM, BFC, DDV, LAS
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags: BFC DPM DCM DDV
- Middle East tensions are pushing up fertilizer prices, especially in the short term. The extent of the impact depends on the course of the conflict and there are differences between the types of fertilizers. If the war escalates, the increase in oil prices will lead to gas and urea prices, which in turn will have a chain effect on other fertilizers due to the connection with urea fertilizers. However, urea fertilizers are the most affected, while other fertilizers such as phosphate and NPK are less volatile.
- Urea prices have been steadily rising since the Iran-Israel tensions occured and lead to gas costs rising and a 16 percent shortage of urea production supplies from Egypt and Iran. However, compared to the Russia-Ukraine war (2/2022), the impact this time is lower because China has resumed exports and is not yet the peak fertilizer consumption season.
- The selling price of phosphate fertilizers (MAP, DAP, LAS) is expected to increase more slowly than the price of Urea as relatively stable input costs due to the decrease in sulfuric acid prices to partially compensate for the increase in liquid ammonia prices.
- The selling price of NPK has difficulty in increasing the price even though the price of single and dual inputs has increased rapidly. The reason is strong competition from countries such as China and Russia. In addition, from July 1, 2025, the EU's 40% import tariff imposed on Russia will cause Russia to push to other markets such as Vietnam.
- In the short term, Urea fertilizer enterprises such as DCM and DPM have a greater impact on the selling price than DDV, LAS and NPK fertilizer businesses such as BFC.
Steel industry – The Green Steel, a trend to watch
23-06-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- For large-scale markets like the EU, the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), where importers purchasing carbon credits (based on emissions), which will reduce the cost advantage of Asian steel producers using BOF technology. producers are shifting towards green steel trends: replacing current technologies to reduce carbon emissions (CO2) during production and aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050.
- In Vietnam, several companies with strong positions in the export market have implemented initial measures to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby maintaining competitive advantages in major markets. These measures include: 1/ Emissions Inventory at Manufacturing Facilities; 2/ Optimization of Fuel Consumption in Production Activities (Direct and Indirect).
OCB - Optimistic profit outlook for 2Q2025, driven by an improvement in total operating income
20-06-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- 2Q25 PBT is projected to grow positively, reaching nearly VND 990 billion (+11% QoQ and +10% YoY), supported by 7% YTD credit growth and a 5bps QoQ improvement in NIM to 3.2%. Non-interest income expanded significantly from a low base in the previous quarter (+260% QoQ and +38% YoY). Provisioning expenses increased substantially (+94% QoQ and +75% YoY), equivalent to a credit cost ratio of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% in 1Q24).
- For 2025, we forecast PBT to reach VND 4.6 trillion (+14% YoY), driven by robust non-interest income growth (+84% YoY). Meanwhile, 2025F NIM is expected to contract by approximately 30bps YoY to 3.2%, resulting in slower net interest income growth (+8% YoY), and credit cost is expected to rise 15% YoY.
Seaports industry – Vietnam's role in global supply chains
19-06-2025
: GMD, HAH, VSC
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports
- The US reciprocal tariffs imposed on Vietnamese goods reduce competitiveness, but the difference is not enough to cause supply chains to leave Vietnam.
- We expect that the group of goods accounting for a high proportion of container production such as textiles and garments will still be produced in Vietnam, helping to maintain the growth of port throughput.
U.S. public debt soars - U.S. housing market slows down
18-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S. public debt continues to rise sharply, reaching 97.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2024, with projections to surpass the post-World War II record by 2030. Despite rising borrowing costs, the Trump administration persists with an expansionary fiscal policy. The large-scale tax and spending reform bill passed in May 2025 is expected to add an additional $3.8 trillion to public debt from 2025-2034. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, from Aaa to Aa1, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds.
- The U.S. housing market is undergoing a significant shift from a supply shortage to a localized surplus. The increase in homes for sale and higher mortgage rates have dampened purchasing power, creating the largest supply-demand surplus since 2013. This has led to a slowdown in home price growth, with prices rising only 4.1% in March 2025, a sharp decrease compared to the previous hot growth period.
Gold Market Policy Turns – A New Gateway for Manufacturing and Retail?
17-06-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Vietnam's gold market has recently become more vibrant than ever, driven not only by global changes but also by the Vietnamese Government’s newly proposed gold market management policies at the end of May. These proposals are strategic, focused, and long-term in nature - marking a shift in mindset and approach with the aim of tightening control over the gold market, curbing speculation, and repositioning gold as a true financial asset. These changes are expected to have a meaningful impact on the supply of input materials for jewelry manufacturers and retailers, especially given growing concerns over securing sufficient production reserves.
- In the first half of 2025, gold prices repeatedly hit new record highs, leading to a significant increase in the price gap between domestic and international gold, peaking at an estimated 16.2%. Despite this, local demand for gold as a store of value remained strong, driven by expectations of further price increases. Recently, however, this gap has started to narrow, reflecting positive shifts in both policy and market supply - demand dynamics.
- Alongside optimism for a more transparent information and trading mechanism, and a stable supply of raw materials for jewelry producers, we believe the biggest remaining “bottleneck” lies in market trust - a constraint that will take time to gradually “ease”.
Trade update May 2025: Speed up negotiations before the 90-day deadline
16-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The effect of rushing export orders continued to be evident in the trade results for May 2025.
- Exports by domestic enterprises significantly declined compared to the previous month, while the trade activities of FDI enterprises continued to accelerate.
- The top three export growth categories in May 2025 were electronics, agricultural and aquatic products, and machinery and equipment.
- Imports of raw materials for production gradually decreased in the textile and garment sector. In contrast, imports of raw materials for electronics and machinery equipment remained at high levels.
- Exports to the U.S. market continued to grow exceptionally, surpassing the growth rate of exports to non-U.S. markets. Concurrently, the trade surplus with the U.S. continued to expand.
- The rush for export orders before the tariff deadline was particularly strong for toys, electronics, chemicals, agricultural products, and paper. However, with the U.S. imposing a 50% tariff on aluminum and steel, steel exports bucked the overall trend of growth.
- Vietnam has undergone three official rounds of negotiations with U.S. representatives regarding tariffs. The announced results indicate positive progress, though details remain undisclosed, with just over half a month left before the 90-day tariff suspension period ends.
- Currently, Vietnam, along with 17 key trade partners, is working toward signing agreements with the U.S. Recent remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggest that the U.S. may be flexible with tariff deadlines for countries demonstrating “good faith” in negotiations.
- The latest developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations indicate that the U.S. will impose a 10% reciprocal tariff on China, with the total effective tariff increase on Chinese goods reaching around 29%. According to Bloomberg, Vietnam is seeking a tariff in the range of 20-25%, corresponding to an additional effective tariff increase of 15-18%.
DGC – Good Growth in Yellow Phosphorus, Favorable Fertilizer Business
13-06-2025
: DGC
: Chemicals, Fertilizer
: Duong Tran
Tags:
- In Q1 2025, DGC recorded revenue of VND 2,810 billion (+18% YoY, +16% QoQ) with consumption volumes of yellow phosphorus (P4), 85% H3PO4 (TPA), fertilizers, and animal feed additives reaching 14,301 tons (+28% YoY, +25% QoQ), 8,817 tons (-47% YoY, -25% QoQ), 81,717 tons (+11% YoY, +12% QoQ), and 18,918 tons (-14% YoY, -13% QoQ) respectively. The growth in yellow phosphorus was driven by stable demand from export markets, while fertilizer growth was mainly due to a supply shortage from China.
- DGC reported company’s net profit after-tax (NPAT) of VND 65 billion in Q1 2025 (+253% QoQ), recovering from the less favorable business results in Q4 2024.
- At the 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders (AGM), the company set a relatively cautious business plan, with revenue and pre-tax profit at VND 10,385 billion (+5% YoY) and VND 3,000 billion (+0.4% YoY), respectively. In terms of investment, the group officially commenced construction of the Nghi Son Chemical Complex project Phase 1 in February 2025 and expects it to be operational in Q2 2026.
KDH – Gladia will be the next "pillar" for Khang Dien's business
12-06-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- The Privia project will continue to contribute to the business performance in the 2nd quarter of 2025, with more than 200 apartments and 20 shophouses remaining, expected to bring in VND 808 billion in revenue and VND 153 billion in profit and profit, maintaining a gross profit margin of around 43%.
- The Gladia project – a strategic highlight of KDH in 2025, currently has a Construction Permit for the Emeria subdivision (67 units), is expected to open for sale in phase 1 in the 3rd quarter of 2025 with a total presales value estimated at VND 5,200 billion.
- We expect KDH's revenue in 2025 to reach ~VND 7,431 billion (+127% YoY), led by contributions from The Privia and Gladia. Currently, KDH shares are trading at a discount of 43% compared to RNAV, based on the stability of business results, development capacity and absorption capacity of projects in the near future, we believe that the discount will narrow as the market brings the stock price closer to its real value.
DGW – Q1-2025’s results aligned with expectations, highlighted by robust performance in new product categories
11-06-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hưng Nguyễn
Tags:
- DGW Q1-2025 results in line with analyst expectations: net revenue reached VND 5,519 bn (+10.7% YoY), NPAT-MI at VND 106 bn (+14.6% YoY), driven by market share gains in laptops & tablets offsetting mobile phone declines (mainly Apple), along with continued expansion in office equipment & home appliances (notably adding Philips to its portfolio). These two segments, with higher margins, helped lift EBIT margin by 103bps to 3.4%. However, their impact on net margin was offset by a one-off financial expense of VND 76 bn, keeping net margin flat YoY
- We view the upside potential in DGW’s target price favorably, driven by brighter signals of improved net margin from new segments such as Office Equipments and Home Appliances. We will update DGW’s valuation in subsequent reports. We note that DGW’s business performance is poised for a “stronger inflection point” in 2026, as one-off financial costs taper off, more accurately reflecting the expanded net profit margin contribution from these new segments.
REE – 1Q/2025 Brighten business results with hydroelectric recovery
10-06-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q1/2025, REE's revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPATMI) increased by 13% and 27% YoY, respectively.
- The recovery of Hydroelectric output (+30% YoY) was the main reason for the sharp increase in EBITDA of the energy segment (+74% YoY).
- NPATMI in the mechenical and engineering and real estate segments decreased by 21% and 22% YoY, respectively, due to the impact of interest expenses, warehousing fees and depreciation costs of Etown 6 projects.
- Revenue from the water and environment segment increased 10 times YoY, but high depreciation costs caused NPATMI to be flat (-1% YoY).
GMD – Q1-FY25 delivered strong results, driven by nationwide output growth
09-06-2025
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports GMD
- NPATMI reached VND 403 billion (+80% YoY, excluding the abnormal profit from the divestment of Nam Hai port in Q1-FY24).
- Net revenue reached VND 1,412 billion (+27% YoY). The container handling segment was the primary growth driver, with a strong increase in throughput in Hai Phong and Ho Chi Minh City.
- The 2025 plan is conservative, given the uncertainty surrounding the US tariff policy towards Vietnam. Revenue and PBT are both projected to remain flat compared to the SPLY, at VND 4,850 billion and VND 1,800 billion, respectively.
- The Board proposes a treasury share buyback plan of up to 21 million shares to be repurchased if the market price falls below 1.5 times the book value, equivalent to a share price below VND 45,000.
24-06-2025
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