02-11-2026VNINDEX1710.72-30.90-1.77% HNXIndex250.55-2.19-0.87% UPCOM121.95-1.78-1.44% VN301813.41-41.63-2.24% VN1001725.75-36.02-2.04% HNX30421.53-7.18-1.68% VNXALL2681.18-54.61-2.00% VNX503013.91-67.49-2.19% VNMID1783.68-29.41-1.62% VNSML1204.27-16.51-1.35% HPG – Solid business foundation
02-11-2026
: HPG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In 3Q26, HPG's revenue beat expectations at VND62.2tn (+71% YoY, +13% QoQ), on sales volume of 3.7mn tons (+37% YoY, +6% QoQ), of which: 1/ construction steel volume reached 1.3mn tons (+2% QoQ, +24% YoY); 2/ HRC volume reached 2.1mn tons (+8% QoQ, +64% YoY).
- 3Q revenue came in above our expectations, likely driven by export HRC orders (512k tons, or 25% of total HRC volume), particularly to the US market. Together with relatively well-controlled input costs (amid an average coking coal price of USD247/ton, +4% QoQ), 3Q gross profit margin (GPM) held steady QoQ at 19.2% (above our forecast), lifting gross profit to VND11,922bn (+96% YoY, +14% QoQ).
- We maintain our fair value for HPG at VND31,100/share (implying 48% expected return based on the closing price on October 30, 2026). Accordingly, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on HPG, which we view as our top pick in the building materials sector for 2026-2027; detailed updates on our forecasts and valuation will be provided in subsequent reports.
VIB – Q3/2026 Earnings Update: Provision expenses absorb profit growth
30-10-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Q3/26 PBT reached VND 2.4 trillion (+1% QoQ, +19% YoY), bringing 9M26 cumulative PBT to VND 7.6 trillion (+8% YoY), fulfilling 72% of our full-year forecast (VND 10.5 trillion, +16% YoY). We view Q3/26 results as unfavorable, as more than half of non-interest income came from recoveries of written-off bad debts (VND 700 billion), while deteriorating asset quality pushed provision expenses up sharply (48% QoQ and 64% YoY), absorbing most of the increase in profit before provision.
- Q4/26 outlook: NIM is expected to remain flat at 3.3% thanks to remaining credit room of 4.5% and stable liquidity (LDR ~77-78%, SMLR ~30%). However, to meet our full-year forecast of VND 10.5 trillion, Q4/26 PBT needs to reach about VND 2.9 trillion (+21% QoQ, +42% YoY), a rather challenging target given provisioning pressure amid rising NPLs.
- Our fair value for VIB shares is VND 16,250/share, equivalent to an ACCUMULATE recommendation with an expected return of 17% compared to the closing price on Oct 30, 2026. We will provide further details in our upcoming reports.
DHC – Giao Long 3 to drive a new cycle of production growth
29-10-2026
: DHC
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags:
- We expect the Giao Long 3 project to create new growth opportunities for DHC, as its existing paper mills are already operating above designed capacity. With an annual capacity of 390,000 tons, the project is expected to increase DHC’s total industrial paper capacity to 650,000 tons per year, or 2.5x its current level, while adding Kraftliner to its product portfolio.
- According to DHC’s plan, Giao Long 3 is expected to commence commercial operations in Q3/2027. We forecast total paper output to increase from 320,000 tons in 2026 to 411,000 tons in 2027 (+28.4% YoY) and 632,000 tons in 2028 (+53.8% YoY). However, actual growth will depend on the timing of commercial operations and the pace of capacity ramp-up at the new mill.
Steel Market 9M 2026 – Q3 consumption is a bright spot
28-10-2026
: HPG, HSG, NKG, GDA
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags: Steel
- Cumulative 9M 2026 consumption: Total volume reached 27.7 million tons (+19% YoY), with HRC (+43% YoY) and construction steel (+20% YoY) leading the growth, accelerating in Q3 (+54% and +29% YoY, respectively); steel pipes increased slightly by 3% YoY, while galvanized steel sheets decreased by 2% YoY but recovered in Q3 (+17% YoY).
- Selling prices tend to rise again after adjustments: By the end of October 2026, selling prices for steel grades increased by approximately 3-10% compared to the beginning of the year, supported in part by cost-push factors from coking coal and relatively positive consumption demand.
- Business results for steel enterprises in Q4 2026 are expected to maintain a growth trajectory compared to the same period last year, thanks to (1) accelerated disbursement of infrastructure projects, (2) civil construction demand remaining flat or improving as interest rate levels cool down, and (3) the Government's trade protection measures.
FMC – Q3/2026 – A Favorable Shrimp Farming Season
27-10-2026
: FMC
: Fishery
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- Q3/2026 revenue reached 2,534 billion VND (-15% YoY, +52% QoQ), while NPAT-MI surged 94% to 188 billion VND. Both segments declined: the shrimp segment recorded 2,512 billion VND (-15% YoY) with volume and selling price down 10% and 5% YoY, respectively, pressured by high anti-dumping duties in the US; the agricultural segment fell to 21 billion VND (-47% YoY).
- Q3/2026 gross profit reached 423 billion VND, up 1% YoY, pushing the gross margin to 16.7% from 14.0% in the same period, thanks to an improved shrimp segment margin of 16.6%. Cost of goods sold decreased faster than selling prices due to a 14% YoY drop in outsourced shrimp prices and an increased self-sufficiency ratio as export volume narrowed. Meanwhile, selling prices declined slowly as the Company pushed value-added products with higher price points.
- Selling expenses decreased 42% YoY due to lower anti-dumping and anti-subsidy tax costs in the US as the Company limited exports to that market. Meanwhile, Q3/2026 administrative expenses increased 16% YoY, mainly due to other expenses. Financial activities recorded a net loss of 14 billion VND due to a 139% YoY increase in interest expenses. Other income showed no significant fluctuations. Consequently, the Q3/2026 net profit margin reached 7.4%, higher than the 3.3% in the same period but lower than Q2/2026 (9.2%).
- In 9M/2026, net revenue reached 5,600 billion VND (-18% YoY), completing 70% of the annual plan, and profit before tax reached 453 billion VND, meeting the 2026 annual plan, equivalent to 81% and 93% of our forecasts, respectively. We expect to maintain revenue but adjust net profit upward due to low selling and production costs. Currently, we maintain our BUY recommendation for FMC shares with a short-term target price of 42,900 VND/share.
Global Chip Market – Widening supply-demand imbalance continues to drive selling prices
26-10-2026
: MWG, DGW, FRT, DMX
: Retailing
: VDSC
Tags: DGW MWG FRT DMX
- DRAM product prices have surged 2–4 times over the past 18 months, depending on type, driven by the industry’s oligopolistic structure and the artificial intelligence (AI) investment wave.
- We expect the upward trend in RAM prices to persist through 2026–27, as the supply-demand imbalance remains significant. On the supply side, capacity expansion is constrained in the medium term due to: (1) new fab construction requiring 3–4 years before operations commence, (2) current RAM inventory levels at only 2–3 weeks, and (3) the oligopoly’s preference for maintaining high selling prices to protect strong profit margins, in our view. On the demand side, major hyperscalers continue to expand the number and scale of their data centers. This wave is spreading to the Asia-Pacific region, diverting a large portion of chip and RAM output toward data-center needs and triggering shortages for end-user ICT products such as smartphones and PCs.
- The ongoing expansion of data-center investment implies that laptop selling prices will continue to rise as a “new normal” over the next year. We believe the FOMP (Fear of Missing Procurement) effect will persist at least through the first half of 2027, supported by favorable retail promotions, helping maintain volume growth of approximately 10% YoY rather than an earlier decline. Consequently, distributors/retailers with strong early inventory locking capabilities and favorable price negotiation leverage with manufacturers will continue to sustain the elevated profit margins established in 2026. We will provide further updates in relevant company reports.
PNJ – EGM approved all proposals and set targets for 2027–2029
23-10-2026
: PNJ
: Retailing
: VDSC
Tags:
- On 21 October 2026, PNJ’s EGM approved all submitted proposals, including 2026 business plan revisions, a private placement, the transfer of the development investment fund to undistributed retained earnings, dividend distribution, and the resignation of a member of the Board of Directors (BOD).
- PNJ revised its 2026 revenue and NPAT (before provisions) downward by 20% and 77%, respectively, from the previous plan, reflecting weaker-than-expected business performance. The company also increased its provision for potential losses to VND 7,07bn, based on an assumption that customers would return or exchange products equivalent to 80% of the total merchandise previously sold by the company. For 2027-2029, PNJ expects net revenue to recover at a CAGR of 14% p.a., GPM to improve to 10%, and NPAT to gradually recover from a loss of VND 6,000bn in 2026 to a profit of VND 1,600bn in 2029.
- Preliminary Q3/2026 results, excluding provisions for potential losses, showed a 14% YoY decline in net revenue and a net loss of VND 258bn, attributable to: (1) a large proportion of revenue being generated from product exchanges, while underlying consumer demand remained weak; (2) customers opting to exchange products for jewelry with lower GPM; and (3) downward adjustments to the selling prices of certain products to bring them closer to prevailing market prices.
- Incorporating the revised 2026 NPAT plan (including provisions), we preliminarily estimate that undistributed retained earnings will decline to ~VND 3,000bn by year-end 2026. Shareholders’ equity is expected to decrease by 45% YoY to VND 7,216bn, implying a 2026 fwd P/B of ~1.3x based on the share price as of 23 Oct 2026. This compares with an estimated year-end 2026 BVPS of 14,000 VND, based on 512 million shares outstanding. We maintain our Observe recommendation on PNJ.
TNG – Maintaining rapid profit growth momentum
22-10-2026
: TNG
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In Q3-FY26, revenue and net profit reached VND 3,229 billion (+23% YoY) and VND 152 billion (+29% YoY), respectively, in line with our projections (VND 3,272 billion and VND 153 billion).
- In 9M2026, revenue and net profit reached VND 8,095 billion (+21% YoY) and VND 362 billion (+29% YoY), respectively, completing 85%/80% of the annual plan and 78%/79% of our forecast.
- We maintain our recommendation BUY for TNG with a target price of 31,200 VND/share, along with a dividend of 2,000 VND/share over the next 12 months, representing a 73% total return based on the closing price on October 22, 2026. TNG's current valuation is deeply discounted with a TTM P/E of 5.1x and a 2026 forward P/E of 4.7x, which are 43% and 47% lower than the 5-year historical mean, respectively. The bottleneck for textile stocks is the US investigation into tariffs on Vietnamese goods, a favorable trade agreement would help TNG be revalued to a reasonable level.
NT2– Q3/2026 business results: Favorable times
21-10-2026
: NT2
: Power
: VDSC
Tags:
- Q3/2026, Nhon Trach 2 (NT2:HSX) recorded net revenue of VND 2,807 billion (+46% yoy), profit after tax – minority interest (NPATMI) reached VND 419 billion (+95% yoy); completed 122%/438% of the Company's revenue plan and Profit before tax plan. Electricity generation (Qm) reached 1,160 million kWh, up 47% yoy.
- Gross profit margin reached 17.5%, up 6.8 pps yoy (+4.8 pps qoq), due to (1) a sharp drop in production cost/kWh due to a 79% yoy reduction in depreciation costs and an expansion of production scale advantages; (2) input gas prices decreased by 3% qoq due to the war in the Middle East; and (3) the Qc/Qm ratio increased by 11 percentage points yoy, resulting in an average selling price/kWh increase of 2% yoy.
- For the full year of 2026, we forecast NT2's net revenue to reach VND10,678 billion (+37% yoy), with total power generation for the year reaching VND4,517 million kWh (+45% yoy). Net profit is estimated at VND1,237 billion (+11.6% yoy); NT2's gross margin can remain as high as in 2025 (13.7%, -0.3% yoy) thanks to the significant improvement in the company's power generation scale.
Banking Sector: Official Letter 9608/NHNN-CSTT – Lowering interest rates, tightening credit risk control
20-10-2026
: VCB, BID, CTG, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB, MSB, OCB, SHB, STB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- On October 18th, 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Official Letter 9608/NHNN-CSTT, requiring credit institutions (CIs) to cut posted deposit rates by at least 0.5% p.a. for terms of 6 months or longer and to cut lending rates by 1.5–2% p.a. for production and business activities and priority sectors, while tightening credit discipline and risk management. The letter took effect upon issuance.
- What sets it apart from previous directives is the specific sanctions: non-compliant CIs may have their remaining 2026 credit growth quota reviewed, be assigned a lower quota for 2027 or be required to apply safety ratios stricter than the regulatory minimum. Banks responded quickly: within just two days (October 19th–20th), at least 19 banks cut deposit rates, mostly by 0.5 percentage points p.a.
- Deposit rates are expected to stay stable through year-end, but are unlikely to fall significantly in 2027, as the system's structure does not allow it, with total deposits still trailing total credit by about VND2.35 quadrillion (as of October 14th, 2026).
- NIM faces short-term pressure, with divergence across banks: CTG, MBB, VCB and BID have the highest share of production and business lending in the sector (50–60%), and are therefore likely to be more affected by the lending rate cut directive. However, rate cuts are currently being implemented mainly through capped credit packages, so the sector-wide impact may be milder than the directive implies.
- With outright L/C purchase balances now counted toward credit growth quotas as required by the Letter, we estimate that SHB, TPB and TCB have exceeded their 2026 credit growth quotas (based on 1H2026 data, as official Q3 2026 data is not yet available), while NAB is slightly over. State-owned banks and the banks that received compulsory transfers of weak banks (MBB, VPB, HDB) still have more room for growth.
- We maintain a cautious view on the banking sector in the short term, favoring banks with high CASA ratios, thick provision buffers and lending activities that are less reliant on outright L/C purchases.
KBC – Large contracts begin to be recognized after infrastructure completion
19-10-2026
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 3Q2026, KBC reported revenue and gross profit of VND3.2tn (+137% YoY) and VND1.7tn (+120% YoY), respectively. Industrial park (IP) land and infrastructure leasing revenue reached VND2,466bn (+190% YoY), with ~55ha of leased area recognized (+224% YoY), mainly from Que Vo 2 Expansion IP at an estimated lease rate of USD170/sqm/lease term (~5% above the area's average rate).
- On the asset side, the company continues to invest in large-scale projects, with inventories remaining elevated at VND35.4tn, concentrated in ongoing projects (notably up at Trang Cat Urban Area and Khoai Chau Urban Area, both under site clearance and land filling). Meanwhile, total borrowings (short- and long-term) stayed high at VND33.7tn (debt/equity of 121%), indicating KBC is still relying on debt to fund project development.
- We maintain our target price for KBC at VND38,200/share, implying an expected return of 47% based on the October 19, 2026 close. KBC remains one of the standout long-term picks in the IP sector; however, we would continue to monitor the pace of revenue recognition and the company's use of leverage to fund its projects.
BSR - Key takeaways from the Investor Seminar on October 15, 2026
16-10-2026
: BSR
: Oil & Gas
:
Tags: BSR
- Strong 9M2026 earnings growth driven by wider crack spreads. Consolidated revenue is estimated at VND 164.5tn (+58.3% YoY), while net profit reached VND 22.9tn (+961.6% YoY), or 10.6x the full-year target. The refinery operated at 123% of design capacity, with output rising 4.8% YoY.
- Stable crude oil supply from domestic sources and imports. BSR prioritizes domestic crude oil and diversifies imports to secure feedstock supply. The company also works with local shipping companies to control transportation costs amid geopolitical tensions.
- The Dung Quat Refinery Upgrade and Expansion Project has entered the EPC phase. The EPC contract was signed on July 9, 2026, and site leveling works were 85.9% complete by the end of September 2026. Total investment is estimated at USD 1.49bn, funded by 60% equity and 40% debt.
- BSR aims to expand into petrochemicals and green energy by 2030. The company targets total consolidated revenue of VND 943.2tn during 2026–2030 and plans to develop petrochemical and chemical products, as well as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
02-11-2026
2 