GDA – Signs of gradual recovery are becoming evident.
16-09-2025
: GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In Q2 2025, GDA recorded revenue of VND 4,257 billion (-29% YoY, +7% QoQ), with galvanized steel sales volume reaching 202,000 tons (-14% YoY, +2% QoQ), reflecting a decline compared to Q2 2024, which saw elevated output driven by strong export market performance. Amid trade defense risks from importing countries, the company continued to shift its order composition toward the domestic market, achieving a domestic sales volume of 142,000 tons (+44% YoY, +21% QoQ), securing the second-largest market share and accounting for 16% of total domestic galvanized steel production.
- Gross profit margin (GPM) continued its recovery, reaching 7.9% (a slight increase from 7.1% in Q1 2025), corresponding to a gross profit of VND 337 billion (-38% YoY, +19% QoQ). This improvement was driven by stable raw material and finished product prices in Q2 (HRC prices remained at USD 500–510/ton), coupled with the company’s reversal of inventory devaluation provisions (~VND 65 billion). By the end of Q2, the inventory devaluation provision balance stood at VND 107 billion, providing room for further provision reversals in subsequent quarters, especially as finished product prices have seen increases during August–September
Trade Update Sep 2025: FDI and Electronics drive export growth
15-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Despite the new tariffs that came into effect in early August, Vietnam’s exports remained fairly strong, rising 14.8% YoY. Similar to the previous month, the FDI sector continued to serve as the backbone of exports (+27.3%), while domestic exports dropped sharply (-15.7%).
- A positive development in last month’s trade performance was the widening trade surplus, which increased from USD2.3 billion in the previous month to USD3.7 billion, driven by an expanding surplus in the FDI sector and a narrowing trade deficit in the domestic sector.
- By product category, except for seafood, chemicals, and transport vehicles, the FDI sector recorded superior export growth. The most notable contrasts were seen in the divergent performance of paper and electronics, as well as the significant growth gap in agricultural products, plastics, rubber, textiles, footwear, and handbags.
- The strong export growth was largely driven by the electronics sector (+36.9% YoY), which contributed 80% to the overall export growth. This momentum is expected to be sustained, given the robust increase in electronics imports (+41.9% YoY, contributing 76% to import growth).
- By export market, shipments to the US have moderated but still maintained a high growth rate (+18% YoY), while exports to non-US markets remained resilient (+17% YoY). Notably, exports to China registered a strong gain of over 22% for the second consecutive month.
- The new tariffs have affected demand for Vietnamese exports to the US such as seafood, agricultural products, textiles, and garments. However, some tariff-affected goods such as chemicals, plastics, rubber, paper, and toys still recorded solid growth. This likely reflects a shift in trade flows, as Vietnam’s retaliatory tariffs remain significantly lower than those of China.
- President Trump’s retaliatory tariffs are currently facing legal challenges, with the Federal Appeals Court ruling that the President exceeded the authority granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In the meantime, the tariffs remain in place at least until the Supreme Court issues a final ruling, expected in Q42025 or Q12026.
- On August 27, the US officially imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is considered a favorable development for Vietnam’s trade prospects. In mid-September 2025, the U.S. and China will commence their fourth round of negotiations, with the addition of TikTok-related issues on the agenda. This round is expected to pave the way for a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea in October.
Fisheries industry –Fish industry Q2/2025 performance grows strongly under tariff fluctuations
12-09-2025
: VHC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue and NPATMI in Q2/2025 of 6 fishery enterprises recorded strong growth of 9% and 153% YoY, respectively. In which, ANV business grew the strongest 14 times as the addition of tilapia and red tilapia besides pangasius. While VHC enterprises grew lower but still maintained a high level of 57% YoY.
- Accumulated 6M2025, NPAT- MI increased by 126% YoY with gross profit increasing by 55% YoY. Gross margin improved, businesses improved as the growth in selling prices in all markets. The selling price of the whole market/US/China/EU/Brazil in 1H2025 recorded a growth of 4%/1%/2%/3% while feed prices decreased by 6% YoY.
- In 2H2025, VHC expects to maintain strong growth momentum in HoH while ANV is somewhat weaker due to the sharp decline in the selling price of tilapia products. Pangasius production is expected to increase again in 2H2025 because the US tends to pre-stock tilapia in 1H2025 when China's tariffs are expected to be higher than Vietnam's.
- In 2H2025, the fish industry expects growth thanks to the gradual decrease in raw pangasius prices in HoH while the selling price converted to VND increase HoH when (1) year-end holiday consumption demand is still still due to the total production of imported pangasius in 1H2025 only increasing by 5% YoY and (2) the average selling price through the US is still lower than 3 USD/kg and (3) the exchange rate is estimated to increase 3% YoY.
MWG – BHX's profit growth momentum surged following Q2-2025’s results
11-09-2025
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- MWG's Q2-2025 results surpassed our expectation by 18%, with net sales of VND 36,135 bn (+14.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,648 bn (+6.6% QoQ, +40.6% YoY), driven by significantly improved BHX profitability (net margin rose from 0.3% in Q1-2025 to 1.6% in Q2-2025) and accelerated financial investment activities (+38.0% YoY).
- MWG's stock profit potential lies in the “BHX northward expansion” strategy, which is gradually proving effective, unlocking profit growth from Q2-2025.
- We raise our short-term valuation based on 2025F result and the positive business outlook for the next year, targeting VND 87,100 per share (including a VND 1,000 cash dividend per share), using the SoTP method in the short term. Note that the long-term target price will be updated after a comprehensive assessment of the company’s long-term context.
- We increase our 2025F’s net profit forecast for MWG by 21%, reflecting a significantly more positive business environment compared to our latest forecast, driven by all three pillars: (1) TGDD & DMX, (2) BHX, and (3) financial investment activities.
PNJ – New Decree on gold trading activities: Unlocking opportunities amid transitional risks
10-09-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: PNJ Decree 232/2025/ND-/CP
- Decree 232/2025/ND-CP, issued on August 26, 2025, amends and supplements several provisions of Decree 24/2012/ND-CP in response to existing shortcomings in the market. This is considered both a necessary and appropriate move to “unlock” the gold market for more efficient operation, addressing input bottlenecks for jewelry manufacturers while maintaining the State’s supervisory role.
- PNJ is among the enterprises that meet the charter capital and other requirements under the regulation. We believe that the amendments under Decree 232 may not have an immediate impact on the company’s target and outlook in 2025 - 2026, but are expected to remove the long-standing bottleneck of raw gold supply in the long term, which is a key input risk.
- Input material risks are expected to be eased (reduced but not eliminated). Given the recent surge in gold prices to record highs alongside ongoing supply tightness, the next steps regarding licensing, import/export quotas, and effective enforcement will need close monitoring.
REE – Business results Q2/2025: hydropower, real estate shine
09-09-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2025, REE's parent company's revenue and profit after tax-minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 15% and 76% YoY, respectively, equivalent to 98%/134% of the analyst' forecast, and completed of 45%/51% of the company's plan
- The recovery in hydropower production (+48% YoY) and effective cost management helped the increase NPAT-MI of the entire energy segment by 143% YoY.
- The M&E segment’s NPAT-MI increased by 140% YoY, thanks to the contribution of the M&E contractor segment.
- The net profit of the real estate and office leasing segment increased by 40% YoY thanks to the recording of revenue from the transfer of apartments block and town house in The Light Square – Thai Binh project.
Vietnam bond market report Aug 2025 - G-bonds languish; corporate bonds stage a comeback
08-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- August auction allotment reached VND 11.465 tn, the lowest YTD and a steep drop versus July. 8M cumulative issuance: VND 238.714 tn (47.7% of the annual plan); 3Q through end-Aug: VND 37.3 tn (31.1% of the quarterly plan), confirming a clear slowdown in supply. The bid-to-offer ratio fell to 48.5% and the award rate to 24.1% (both YTD lows), sliding week after week since early August. Softer primary demand suggests VGBs are less competitive at current yields as they compete with accelerating private-sector lending into year-end.
- The State Treasury plans to call VND 81 tn in September, a large single-month target but the award ratio is unlikely to improve materially near term.
- Turnover re-accelerated in August to VND 389 tn (outright 76.3% - VND 297 tn; repo - VND 92 tn). Average daily value rose to VND 14 tn (+37.8% MoM), consistent with active portfolio rebalancing as yields trend higher.
- The market rebounded strongly in August with VND 47.713 tn issued (+47% MoM, −8.2% YoY) across 47 tranches; 8M cumulative: VND 318.041 tn (+39.8% YoY). Banks remained the anchor, printing at 5.3–5.9% p.a. for 2–3Y tenors; notable prints: OCB VND 4.8 tn and BAB VND 3.2 tn. In real estate, VHM stood out with VND 15 tn, 3.5-year tenor, 11% coupon.
- Early redemptions, maturities, and risk. Buybacks recovered to VND 39.782 tn (+150.3% YoY), largely from banks (notably Aug-2024 vintages) to manage duration and costs, leveraging lower funding rates to pave the way for new, lower-coupon issuance. The maturity wall eased after a YTD peak in August (VND 36 tn): September maturities are VND 17 tn. Property credit risk remains elevated: 10 developers disclosed delays in principal/coupon payments in August; notably, Hano-Vid extended 110 tranches worth >VND 5.2 tn to 2027.
- Activity cooled versus July’s high (VND 132.028 tn; VND 5.74 tn/day), with August turnover at VND 109.288 tn (−17.2% MoM).
MSH – Improving fundamentals, supported by strong profitability and attractive valuation
05-09-2025
: MSH
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: Textile & Garment MSH
- In Q2-FY25, MSH posted NPAT of VND 180bn (+96% YoY), well above our expectations, thanks to sustained high gross margins in the CMT segment, outperforming industry norms. This was driven by new Chinese customers onboarded since Q4-FY24.
- We believe MSH has re-rating potential given improving fundamentals and attractive valuation. The stock is trading at 7.6x fwd P/E and 5.6x fwd EV/EBITDA, which are 10%/20% below its 5-year historical average and 16%/13% below industry median, respectively. In addition, with a consistent dividend track record, we expect MSH to maintain a cash dividend of VND 2,500/share (7% yield based on closing price on Sep 04, 2025).
NLG – Profit margin is expected to expand thanks to the transfer of 15% of Izumi project shares
04-09-2025
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NLG
- Nam Long recorded net revenue in 6 months of VND 2,064 billion (+352% YoY), NPAT-MI reached VND 208 billion (+209% YoY), thanks to handover at key projects such as Akari, Southgate and Nam Long Can Tho; gross profit margin recorded 43% in Q2/2025.
- Presales value in 1H2025 reached VND 3,334 billion, of which Q2 contributed up to VND 2,789 billion, led by Park Village (Waterpoint) subdivision and projects such as Can Tho, Akari, Mizuki, Izumi,...
- According to our estimates, Nam Long can record net revenue in 2025 of about VND 4,753 billion (-34% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,232 billion (up 1.3 times over the same period), in addition to the handover at key projects such as Waterpoint, Can Tho, Akari, also comes from financial revenue from the transfer of 15% of the Izumi project.
BMP - Q2 business results improved thanks to stable consumption, high selling prices and low input resin cost
03-09-2025
: BMP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- Q2/2025: Revenue improved thanks to high selling prices and stable consumption volume while profit margin continues to grow thanks to low input plastic prices.
- Accumulated net revenue and net profit in 6M/2025 reached VND 46,252 billion (+25.4% YoY, exceeding the plan by 5.9%) and VND 617 billion (+31.2% YoY, exceeding the plan by 24.1%, respectively).
- The price of PVC resin is anticipated to stay low in Q3 2025, supporting a strong profit margin and return on equity (ROE).
NT2 – Q2/2025 wholesale improvement of business result
29-08-2025
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2025, NT2's revenue decreased slightly (-5% YoY), while the company's NPAT-MI increased sharply by 167% YoY.
- NT2's quarterly gross profit margin reached 17.6% (+11.7 pps YoY) thanks to high contracted volume (Qc) (+21% YoY) exceeding actual production and stable gas fuel prices.
- In 2025, NT2 benefits from an unusually high alpha rate and Qc output exceeding actual production, but this trend is unlikely to last and may return to 85–90% from 1Q2026.
- In Q3, we expect the company's output to improve, thanks to hydrological conditions that limit the level of hydropower output mobilized in the quarter, creating room for growth for the gas-fired group.
Update on Q2-2025 Business Performance and Valuation of Banking Sector
28-08-2025
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, STB, HDB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- PBT in Q2-2025 of 27 listed banks reached nearly VND 89 trillion (+17% YoY), driven by credit growth, proactive bad debt recovery, and stable credit costs compared to the same period last year. For the first six months of 2025, PBT of these banks totaled VND 172 trillion, up 16% YoY, achieving 49% of the full-year 2025 PBT plan.
- Credit growth recorded a 10.0% YTD increase, marking a positive performance over the past five years and comparable to 2022 levels. This result fulfills approximately 62% of the initial credit growth target for the year. As of August 8, credit growth reached 10.2% YTD.
- Deposit growth of listed banks by the end of Q2-2025 reached 10.0%, aligning with credit growth after five quarters of lagging behind credit growth. Banks continued to promote mobilization through valuable papers channels (+25.0% YTD), increasing the proportion of valuable papers in the funding structure to 11.9% (compared to 10.3% in 2024 and 11.1% in Q1-2025), while deposit mobilization rose by 8.3% YTD.
- NIM industry-wide increased by 10 bps QoQ to 3.15%, though it remained nearly 40 bps lower than the same period last year. This development was supported by a clear improvement in the industry’s asset quality, with net formation of overdue loans (Group 2 and bad debts) significantly declining compared to previous quarters.
- Borrowers’ debt repayment capacity has shown broad-based positive improvement. The industry’s on-balance-sheet bad debt increased by only nearly VND 2 trillion compared to the previous quarter, and the industry-wide bad debt ratio decreased by 12 bps QoQ to 2.04%.
- The banking sector’s trading index surged in July and August (as of August 27) with gains of 11% and 18%, respectively, driving a YTD increase of 40%. The industry’s P/B valuation reached 1.83x, the highest in three years and above the five-year average of 1.71x, largely driven by the revaluation process of joint-stock commercial banks.
16-09-2025
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