VCB – Positive Profit Growth Outlook with Clear Drivers for NIM Improvement
20-08-2025
: VCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: Business Update Banks Private Placement
- VCB reported a PBT of VND 11.0 trillion in 2Q25, reflecting a +9% YoY and +2% QoQ increase, in line with expectations of VND 11.2 trillion. For the first half of 2025, PBT reached VND 21.9 trillion (+5% YoY), achieving 47% of the full-year forecast..
- The PBT growth in 2Q25 was primarily driven by a significant increase in income from the recovery of written-off bad debts (+560% YoY), FX trading income (+41% YoY), and a 48% YoY reduction in credit risk provisioning expenses. However, core net interest income remained flat due to NIM pressure, which contracted by 40 basis points (bps) YoY.
- ROAE slightly declined to 17.5% in 2Q25 (1Q25: 17.9%), marking the fourth consecutive quarter below 20%, reflecting slower profit growth. Book value per share (BVPS) stood at VND 25,600, corresponding to a current price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.51x.
- Business outlook highlights: VCB maintains its 16.3% credit growth target for 2025 and anticipates NIM improvement, driven by confidence in expanding its retail loan portfolio and increasing the proportion of medium- and long-term loans. The bank aims to enhance profit growth to restore ROAE to the 18-20% target range. The planned private placement to raise capital, initially targeted for potential completion by year-end, is now expected to be finalized next year.
- VCB’s one-year target price is set at VND 73,000 per share, based on projected PBT of VND 46.2 trillion (+9% YoY) for 2025F and VND 51.7 trillion (+2% YoY) for 2026F. Updated valuations and forecasts will be provided in subsequent reports.
PVT – Q2 2025 Results: Strong revenue growth, earnings pressured by weak freight rates and higher costs
19-08-2025
: PVT
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- PVT posted strong Q2/2025 revenue growth of +46% YoY to VND4.4tn, while NPAT-MI declined slightly by 2% YoY to VND294bn, as gross margin contracted 10ppt due to weaker international freight rates and higher depreciation.
- For 1H/2025, revenue reached VND7.1tn (+29% YoY) and NPAT-MI VND509bn (-2% YoY), fulfilling 69% and 74% of full-year targets. Gross margin dropped to 15.3%, weighed by softer freight rates and a 115% YoY surge in outsourcing costs.
- Domestic crude oil and LPG segments remain the stable pillars, supported by long-term contracts with BSR and KDK that ensure resilient volumes and margins. Meanwhile, oil product, chemical, and dry bulk segments face oversupply pressure and depressed freight rates.
- As of mid-2025, PVT has added three new vessels (Phoenix Gas, PVT Fortune, PVT Emerald), bringing total fleet to 61. The company also adopted a more cautious capex plan (~USD70mn) and is restructuring subsidiaries’ ownership to share risks while maintaining safe leverage at ~1.0x D/E.
SAB – Leveraging low material costs, the spotlight on special consumption tax (SCT)
18-08-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q2-2025, SAB’s results were gloomy with net revenue of VND 6,804 bn (+17.1% QoQ, -15.9% YoY), NPAT-MI reached VND 1,208 bn (+52.2% QoQ, -3.3% YoY), due to the impact of special consumption tax costs after the merger of Sabibeco (UpCOM: SBB) and declining competitiveness with rival Heneiken.
- A bright spot in SAB’s otherwise subdued Q2 performance was the reduction in input costs. The company had fully consumed its higher-cost raw material inventory in 2024, and starting in 2025, input prices have returned to average levels.
- With SAB’s business outlook entering a saturation phase post-COVID and the looming impact of a sharp increase in special consumption taxes, the key investment highlight lies in its steadily rising cash dividend payouts. SAB has gradually increased its dividend payout ratio since the post-COVID period—when the beer industry began to show signs of stagnation—ranging from 60% to 120%. Dividends are funded by the company’s annual net profit and a sizable retained earnings balance of approximately VND 9,200 bn.
- SAB is well-suited for dividend-focused investment strategies, offering a dividend yield of 10.4% per annum. It also appeals to value-oriented investors seeking opportunities in undervalued stocks following sharp market corrections—particularly as SAB’s market price gradually approaches its fair value of VND 48,000 per share, which already reflects the anticipated headwinds in 2025.
Trade Update August 2025: From “China + 1” to Parallel Supply Chains for China and the US?
15-08-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Vietnam’s trade growth in July 2025 remained strong; however, a key point is the divergence in growth between the FDI and domestic enterprise sectors. Exports by domestic enterprises recorded their third consecutive month of negative growth.
- Exports to the US market remained relatively resilient but showed divergence across product groups, with strong growth in electronics and a gradual slowdown in seafood, textiles, and wooden products. Exports to China surged unusually in July, largely due to a low base in the same period last year, while Chinese consumer demand has not shown a clear improvement.
- In the first half of 2025, the US-China trade flows shifted significantly under the impact of tariff policies. China’s exports to the US dropped sharply, offset by stronger exports to other markets (ASEAN, Europe, South Korea, etc.). Meanwhile, the US reduced imports from China but increased purchases from ASEAN, the EU, India, and others. The US imports showed no growth in Q2 2025, but imports from ASEAN continued to post solid increases.
- Vietnam’s exports to the US have performed well, with the Vietnam-US trade surplus hitting a new record in July 2025.
- With the new reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US taking effect from August 7, trade performance in the remaining months of 2025 could turn less favorable as the front-loading effect of export orders fades.
- The latest US tariff measures also pose a challenge to the “China + 1” model, as the Trump administration has increased tariffs not only on China but also on most key manufacturing economies in Asia. As a result, multinational corporations may need to move beyond the “China + 1” approach toward a more complex supply chain structure that ensures parallel access to both China-centered and US-centered markets.
SCS – Fairly positive results despite revenue and NPAT growth deceleration in Q2-FY25
14-08-2025
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- SCS is trading at a TTM P/E and TTM EV/EBITDA of 9.0x and 6.9x, respectively, which are 34%/38% lower than the 5-year historical average and 80%/50% lower than the industry median. We recommend BUY based on the expectation that SCS could participate in Cargo Terminal No. 1 at Long Thanh Airport and that its shares will be re-rated.
- NPAT reached VND 189 billion (+11% QoQ and flat YoY). SCS maintained double-digit revenue growth while NPAT remained flat due to the expiration of its corporate income tax (CIT) incentives (a 20% tax rate applied from 2025 after a 50% reduction for nine years). We assess that the core business operations still delivered relatively positive results.
- Most of the profitability indicators remained stable at high levels in Q2-FY25. The gross margin showed little fluctuation, reaching 80% (-1.1 pps QoQ and -0.6 pps YoY). SG&A expenses/revenue remained low at 5.2% (-0.4 pps QoQ and +0.1 pps YoY). The net margin was 64.8% (+1 pps QoQ and -7 pps YoY). The narrowing of the net margin was due to the expiration of CIT incentives as mentioned above.
Real Estate Market 6M2025 – On the recovery momentum
13-08-2025
: NLG, KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: RE_Market Real estate
- In the second quarter of 2025, the apartment market in Ho Chi Minh City continues to record a recovery in supply and absorption rate, showing that demand is still positive. Meanwhile, the Hanoi market recorded a decrease in absorption rate, as new open supply continued to focus on the high-end and luxury segments.
- Primary selling prices continue to maintain an upward momentum, the Ho Chi Minh City market reached an average of 82 million VND/m² in the second quarter of 2025 (+6.4% QoQ), while the Hanoi market recorded a price of about 79 million VND/m² (+5% QoQ), reflecting a slowdown after a prolonged period of warming. We believe that the upward trend in both the primary and secondary markets will remain in the second half of 2025, but growth will slow down.
- We expect the recovery of the market to continue to become clear with the support of a series of new legal policies and mechanisms: 1/ Pilot commercial housing development through the mechanism of land use right agreements, 2/ Accelerate the progress of infrastructure investment in localities related to administrative mergers.
POW – Q2/2025 Business result surpass expectation despite flat output
12-08-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In 2Q25, POW’s revenue was nearly flat, while net profit – minority interest (NPAT-MI) rose 47% YoY.
- Total power output fell 3% YoY, with gas-fired plants down 12% YoY, offset by coal-fired and hydropower plants rising 4% and 52% YoY, respectively.
- Average selling price increased 3% YoY, in contrast to the market-wide electricity price (FMP) which dropped 28% YoY, thanks to contracted output (Qc) surging 39% YoY.
- Higher selling prices and stable fuel costs drove gross margin up 5 pps YoY to 12.8%.
KBC - Accumulate for future growth
11-08-2025
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: KBC
- In the first half of 2025 (1H2025), KBC recorded positive results, with revenue and gross profit reaching VND 3.7 trillion (+254% YoY) and VND 1.8 trillion (+234% YoY), respectively. Land and infrastructure leasing in industrial parks (IPs) generated revenue of VND 2.8 trillion (+432% YoY), driven by the leasing of 86 hectares (+462% YoY), primarily from the Hung Yen Industrial Cluster (83 hectares).
- During the 2025-2026 period, in addition to developing IPs with previously approved investment policies, KBC plans to commence business operations for IPs that have recently received investment approval (Trang Due 03, Kim Thanh 2, and four newly approved IPs), increasing the total leasable land bank to approximately 3,000 hectares in the long term.
- For residential real estate projects, significant contributions to revenue growth potential in the coming years are expected from the Trang Cat Urban Area and The Trump International Hung Yen project.
MSB – Shrinking non-interest income and deteriorating asset quality
08-08-2025
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Parent bank’s PBT in Q2/2025 reached VND 1.5 trillion, down sharply by 31% YoY, mainly due to (1) a significant drop
in income from the recovery of written-off bad debts (-89% YoY) and (2) a 17% YoY increase in operating expenses.
Meanwhile, TNEX recorded a PBT of about VND 41 billion, showing robust growth YoY (in the whole year 2024, TNEX’s
PBT was only VND 5 billion). Consolidated PBT in 1H2025 reached nearly VND 3.2 trillion, down 14% YoY, completing
only 40% of the full-year target (VND 8 trillion).
- MSB’s Q2 and 1H2025 business results were generally less favorable YoY, mainly due to (1) a continued decline in NIM
driven by lending competition pressure, although partially supported by interest income reversals from the recovery
of on-balance-sheet bad debts, (2) deterioration in asset quality, mainly from an increase in NPLs in the retail segment,
and (3) a contraction in non-interest income (excluding fee income).
- For the profit outlook in 2H2025, we believe that the plan to recover a large amount of off-balance-sheet NPLs will
help support the expansion of TOI and enable the achievement of the full-year profit target. In addition, provisioning
expenses will likely be increased given the persisting risk of rising NPLs, particularly in the retail segment.
PNJ – Despite exceeding 50% of the year target, greater efforts needed in the context of slow recovery in purchasing power
07-08-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Short-term purchasing power is still going as forecast: Weak in 1H2025 and may extend to Q3/2025 for the luxury and non-essential sector. The key impact factor is the gold price, which is continuously rising higher than expected, causing the demand to buy gold to increase along with the perspective of "accumulating and waiting".
- Vietnam has not yet reached the consumption threshold for jewelry, as reflected by several factors: jewelry consumption/capita remains low (around 0.13 grams/person) compared to the region (China, India, and Singapore, etc.). The expected expansion of the middle and upper classes is anticipated to drive stronger demand for this category.
- In the headwind of input and output challenges, PNJ has completed >50% of the revenue and profit target of FY25 in H1 thanks to flexible adaptation. However, this figure is relatively low compared to the same period (60 – 70% of year target at this time as Q1 is usually the highest-performing quarter). The company maintains the revenue/profit target of VND 31,307 bn and VND 1,960 bn, respectively, but will need to make more effort in H2 to achieve.
Vietnam bond market report July 2025 - Correction and selective phase
06-08-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: Bond market
- Primary government bond issuance slowed, reaching only VND 25.86 trillion (‑15.1% MoM). In response to weaker than expected Q2 results, the State Treasury raised its auction target to VND 52 trillion to accelerate funding. The winning rate dropped sharply to 49.9%, despite a bid-to-offer ratio of 84.9%, reflecting the standoff between rising yield expectations and the State Treasury’s objective to control funding costs.
- The 10-year tenor remained dominant (83.7% of total issuance), while longer tenors (>15 years) saw weak demand, indicating investor preference for liquidity. Government bond yields continued to climb, with the 10-year winning yield rising to 3.29% p.a. at end-July—up 11bps MoM and 53bps YoY. The yield curve shifted higher across all tenors.
- Secondary market liquidity moderated, with average daily trading value down 17.2%, mainly due to reduced trading in the 15-year tenor. Foreign investors remained net buyers, lending support to market stability.
- The corporate bond market cooled significantly, with new issuance in July at just VND 27.55 trillion (‑78% MoM), though YTD volume was still up 51% YoY thanks to a surge in June. The banking sector remained dominant, accounting for 81.5% of total issuance.
- Cautious corporate sentiment stemmed from higher funding costs and the amended Enterprise Law (effective 1 July 2025), which tightened private placement requirements for unlisted firms (limiting total liabilities to five times equity).
- Early redemptions fell 68% MoM, mainly among bank-issued bonds from the high-rate period (2020–2023). Secondary corporate bond liquidity weakened notably (‑32.3% MoM), with trading concentrated in long-term real estate and bank bonds. Investor sentiment turned more cautious amid substantial refinancing pressure and heightened default risks.
- Refinancing pressure in the corporate bond market is set to intensify in August (VND 36 trillion, including VND 21 trillion in real estate). Fifteen issuers announced delayed principal/interest payments in July, including prominent names such as Hoang Anh Gia Lai, Bong Sen, Saigon Glory, and Hano-Vid, who continued to extend bond maturities.
DGC Q2/2025 Business Results Update – Revenue remains positive, reaching the highest level since Q4/2022
05-08-2025
: DGC
: Chemicals
: Duong Tran
Tags: DGC
- DGC's Q2 business results remain positive compared to the previous quarter, with revenue from TPA, fertilizers and some new products (Alcohol, NPK...) growing well and offsetting the slight decline in yellow phosphorus.
- The new projects are expected to enhance the Company's future results, as they continue to make steady progress.
20-08-2025
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