09-01-2026VNINDEX1859.53.940.21% HNXIndex249.150.050.02% UPCOM121.70.110.09% VN302070.41-3.62-0.17% VN1001949.83-6.90-0.35% HNX30540.98-0.32-0.06% VNXALL3021.98-11.79-0.39% VNX503404.88-13.29-0.39% VNMID2201.27-19.54-0.88% VNSML1459.86-7.20-0.49% Vietnam Midstream Oil & Gas: A stable petroleum transport base with an expanding LNG upside
09-01-2026
: PVT, PVP, PDV, GSP, GAS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVT GAS
- We believe that by 2026, Vietnam’s midstream oil & gas segment will maintain a balance between stability and growth. Petroleum transportation continues to play a pillar role in generating the main cash flow base due to its large scale and defensive nature, despite being exposed to the shipping freight rate cycle.
- At the same time, gas transportation and distribution, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG), is emerging as a key growth driver within the midstream segment, supported by rapidly rising gas-fired power demand amid a structurally declining domestic gas supply.
- The combination of a stable petroleum transportation base and a growth-oriented gas and LNG segment supports a solid near term foundation for the midstream sector, while expanding the medium to long term growth runway for oil and gas companies over the 2026–2030 period.
Understanding the data center market & Vietnam in the regional context
08-01-2026
: FOX, CMG, FPT
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags: Data center
- Data centers (DCs) are purpose-built facilities designed to house and protect computer systems, servers, storage devices, and other network components. They serve as critical infrastructure for the storage, processing, and safeguarding of enterprise data. DCs are commonly classified along two dimensions: (i) by Uptime Institute standards, which assess fault tolerance, availability, and downtime; and (ii) by scale and operating model.
- The development of a DC from construction to commercial operation typically spans three phases over a period of two to three years. Construction and investment costs for DCs in Vietnam are among the lowest in Asia-Pacific, averaging around USD 6.9 million per MW (according to Cushman & Wakefield), supported by competitive labor, electricity, and land costs.
- According to Cushman & Wakefield’s assessment across 30 markets in 1H2025, Vietnam (Hanoi and HCMC) is classified as an emerging DC market, alongside Manila (Philippines), Brisbane and Canberra (Australia), and Taipei (Taiwan). The combined share of operational capacity held by this group doubled yoy in 1H2025, increasing from 3% to 6%.
Yellow Phosphorus 2026 – Supply Risks and the New Export Tax
07-01-2026
: DGC, PAT
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Phosphorus
- In 2025, export prices of phosphorus for the whole industry recovered slightly, while export volumes of DGC (accounting for 50% of Vietnam’s total capacity) grew more positively than other companies thanks to its large exposure to the Japanese market – where customers are mainly in high-tech industries, especially semiconductor manufacturing.
- For 2026, we expect total industry P4 export volume to decline by 30% YoY, due to: 1/ Significant risks related to environmental issues and mining activities, and 2/ Export tax increasing to 10% (from the current 5%) starting next year, which is highly likely to push many companies (whose main export markets are India and the UAE) to shift sales toward Japan (which enjoys tax incentives) and the domestic market to preserve profit margins. Vietnamese P4 prices are unlikely to increase in non-Japan markets, given the high substitution risk from Kazakhstan’s P4 (typically priced about 30% lower than Vietnam’s).
Rubber industry in 2026 – Selling prices are expected to be anchored when supply continues to be in short supply
06-01-2026
: PHR, DPR, TRC
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- In terms of supply, we assess that the ability to expand production in the medium term is still low due to: 1/ New planting and replanting activities are slow for many years; 2/ The policy of controlling the planting area in Thailand continues; 3/ The increase in rubber prices in 2024-2025 mainly reflects adverse weather factors, which are not strong enough to create a driving force for expansion, replanting or new investment.
- In terms of demand, we expect it to remain up, but at a moderate level – not enough to record a strong rally in the short term.
- We believe that rubber prices are likely to remain at the current high level in the medium term (around the level of the second half of 2025), along with the range of fluctuations will be narrower than in previous cycles.
Vietnam's Data Center Market – Breakout growth phase expected from 2026
05-01-2026
: FPT, FOX, CMG
: Technologies
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: FOX CMG FPT
- Vietnam’s market has yet to hit an inflection point and remains far behind global hyperscalers in infrastructure scale and CAPEX intensity. Nevertheless, from 2026, it could prove fertile ground for data center operators, supported by strong government policy push (domestic data residency requirements, personal data protection, national digital transformation agenda) and increasing enterprise awareness. CMG (CMC) and FOX (FPT Telecom) stand out as direct beneficiaries.
TP.HCM’s special policy framework is shaping a new growth model for Vietnam
31-12-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: VDS
- HCMC as Vietnam’s Growth Anchor and Structural Engine
- Resolution 98 and Resolution 260: An Institutional Framework Steering HCMC toward Productivity, Innovation, and High Value-Added Services
Seaports - Vietnam’s container throughput is expected to maintain its growth momentum in 2026
30-12-2025
: GMD, VSC
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- Global container throughput in 2025 is estimated at approximately 965 million TEUs (+5% YoY). Based on container traffic growth and the ongoing expansion of global supply chains, container throughput is projected to reach 993 million TEUs (+3% YoY) in 2026.
- Vietnam’s container throughput for 2025 is estimated at 34.6 million TEUs (+15% YoY). Vietnam’s share of global container throughput continues to expand, reaching 3.56% (+30 bps YoY). Vietnam is increasingly favored by shipping lines, supported by accelerated investment in port infrastructure expansion and short vessel turnaround times.
- For 2026, we forecast Vietnam’s container throughput at approximately 37.4 million TEUs (+9% YoY), with Vietnam’s market share expected to increase by a further 20 bps YoY. This growth is underpinned by the ability to accommodate large vessels and ample operational capacity at the two major deep-sea port clusters, Lach Huyen and Cai Mep–Thi Vai.
Industrial Parks – Expectations of recovery
29-12-2025
: KBC, SIP, PHR
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- The value of newly registered FDI capital (excluding the real estate sector) is projected to continue recording growth and is expected to reach USD 36.7 billion (+15% YoY, with the first 10 months of 2025 already registering around 15% growth in total registered FDI) – indicating that enterprises remain committed to maintaining their investment plans in Vietnam, supported by strategic advantages (geography, infrastructure, and other supportive policies). However, leased land area in both the northern and southern markets recorded a decline (particularly pronounced in the southern market), reflecting a wait-and-see approach among clients regarding clearer tariff policies.
- For 2026, beyond the expectation that FDI inflows (into the manufacturing sector) will remain positive – serving as a foundation for the recovery of enterprise land leasing activity, we observe that the trend of attracting FDI has become more selective and shifted in nature. Purely processing and assembly-oriented manufacturing sectors will no longer enjoy broad preferential treatment, while the sectors that Vietnam is strategically prioritizing (high-tech industries, supporting industries, etc.) will become the main focus of capital attraction.
VGI – 9M2025 PBT beats annual plan by 33%, market price is discounted to an attractive zone
26-12-2025
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags: VGI
- In 3Q2025, VGI recorded net revenue of VND 11,622 bn (+27% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 4,160 bn (20 times higher than the same period last year, driven by a low base as 3Q2024 was affected by financial costs from revaluation exchange rate differences). Cumulatively, 9M2025 net revenue reached VND 31,793 bn (+23.6% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND 5,982 bn (+159% YoY). Revenue and PBT achieved 82% and 139% of VGI’s 2025 target, respectively (equivalent to 75% and 73% of VDSC’s forecast).
- Revenue contribution from companies in African, Latin American, and Southeast Asian accounted for 53%/13%/40%, respectively, with growth was primarily driven by new subscriber additions and upselling services to existing subscribers to increase ARPU, rather than telecom tariff hike. 4G subscribers in Q3 increased 2.5 times above quarterly plan, adding 1.89 million new subscribers.
- With its strong and stable operational capabilities in overseas markets, VGI achieved growth far above the domestic industry average (3–5%/year in 2022–2024) and global average (under 7%, according to PwC). We have slightly revised up our 2025 revenue and NPATMI estimates for VGI, projecting a 20% YoY increase for the full year (driven by broader coverage and faster-than-expected new subscriber growth). The target price is set at VND 81,800/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation (expected return of 20%).
Investment as a Driver of Economic Growth: Asian Experiences and Policy Implications for Vietnam
25-12-2025
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Pursuing high economic growth through robust investment, alongside factors that enhance total factor productivity (TFP), such as scientific and technological advancement and innovation, represents a common strategy adopted by many developing countries to transition toward developed-nation status and high-income levels.
- South Korea and Taiwan—two of Asia's "Tiger" economies—successfully implemented this growth strategy by directing credit flows toward priority sectors, combined with substantial policy incentives. This approach enabled rapid economic transformation over three decades (1970–1990), a period that coincided with their demographic dividends.
- Excessive reliance on investment-led growth, however, can give rise to structural risks, including over-leverage and diminishing investment efficiency. Such imbalances may lead to asset bubbles and deflationary pressures, as observed in the case of China.
- The effective allocation and prudent management of investment resources—in particular credit—toward priority areas such as manufacturing, processing industries, high technology, and education, supported by stronger incentives and binding conditions, constitute the appropriate policy direction for Vietnam. This is especially urgent given that Vietnam's demographic "golden period" is projected to last only another 10–15 years, and the country's stated objective is to escape the middle-income trap by 2050.
Vietnam Steel Market in 2025 – Domestic Demand as the Key Driver
24-12-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Clear divergence in consumption volumes: Construction steel and HRC recorded strong growth thanks to robust domestic demand (HRC sales of HPG alone surged 64% YoY), in contrast to a sharp 20% YoY decline in the coated steel segment due to the combined impact of floods and trade defense measures.
- Selling prices have yet to find a recovery catalyst: HRC prices remained at a bottom range of USD 475/ton (-6% YTD) amid a significant supply–demand imbalance and pressure from imported products, forcing major producers (HPG, Formosa) to continue cutting prices in Q4.
- Looking ahead to 2026, supported by a recovery in construction demand driven by real estate growth and accelerated public investment, we believe the steel industry may benefit in the coming period.
Transition to a two-component retail electricity tariff
23-12-2025
: POW, NT2, REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is currently considering a transition of the retail electricity pricing mechanism toward a two-component electricity tariff, with the objectives of enhancing price transparency, encouraging more efficient electricity usage, and ensuring adequate capital recovery to support investment in the transmission network and power system dispatch.
- The two-component electricity tariff consists of a capacity charge and an energy charge.
- During the pilot phase, this mechanism is expected to be more favorable for industrial customers with high and stable peak demand, while at the same time providing incentives for users to optimize their electricity consumption patterns.
09-01-2026
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