26-12-2025VNINDEX1729.8-13.05-0.75% HNXIndex250.53-0.45-0.18% UPCOM119.28-0.87-0.72% VN301965.97-10.24-0.52% VN1001861.57-12.22-0.65% HNX30542.070.680.13% VNXALL2902.55-18.10-0.62% VNX503241.87-22.23-0.68% VNMID2210.52-10.16-0.46% VNSML1473.74-6.25-0.42% VGI – 9M2025 PBT beats annual plan by 33%, market price is discounted to an attractive zone
26-12-2025
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags: VGI
- In 3Q2025, VGI recorded net revenue of VND 11,622 bn (+27% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 4,160 bn (20 times higher than the same period last year, driven by a low base as 3Q2024 was affected by financial costs from revaluation exchange rate differences). Cumulatively, 9M2025 net revenue reached VND 31,793 bn (+23.6% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND 5,982 bn (+159% YoY). Revenue and PBT achieved 82% and 139% of VGI’s 2025 target, respectively (equivalent to 75% and 73% of VDSC’s forecast).
- Revenue contribution from companies in African, Latin American, and Southeast Asian accounted for 53%/13%/40%, respectively, with growth was primarily driven by new subscriber additions and upselling services to existing subscribers to increase ARPU, rather than telecom tariff hike. 4G subscribers in Q3 increased 2.5 times above quarterly plan, adding 1.89 million new subscribers.
- With its strong and stable operational capabilities in overseas markets, VGI achieved growth far above the domestic industry average (3–5%/year in 2022–2024) and global average (under 7%, according to PwC). We have slightly revised up our 2025 revenue and NPATMI estimates for VGI, projecting a 20% YoY increase for the full year (driven by broader coverage and faster-than-expected new subscriber growth). The target price is set at VND 81,800/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation (expected return of 20%).
Investment as a Driver of Economic Growth: Asian Experiences and Policy Implications for Vietnam
25-12-2025
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Pursuing high economic growth through robust investment, alongside factors that enhance total factor productivity (TFP), such as scientific and technological advancement and innovation, represents a common strategy adopted by many developing countries to transition toward developed-nation status and high-income levels.
- South Korea and Taiwan—two of Asia's "Tiger" economies—successfully implemented this growth strategy by directing credit flows toward priority sectors, combined with substantial policy incentives. This approach enabled rapid economic transformation over three decades (1970–1990), a period that coincided with their demographic dividends.
- Excessive reliance on investment-led growth, however, can give rise to structural risks, including over-leverage and diminishing investment efficiency. Such imbalances may lead to asset bubbles and deflationary pressures, as observed in the case of China.
- The effective allocation and prudent management of investment resources—in particular credit—toward priority areas such as manufacturing, processing industries, high technology, and education, supported by stronger incentives and binding conditions, constitute the appropriate policy direction for Vietnam. This is especially urgent given that Vietnam's demographic "golden period" is projected to last only another 10–15 years, and the country's stated objective is to escape the middle-income trap by 2050.
Vietnam Steel Market in 2025 – Domestic Demand as the Key Driver
24-12-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Clear divergence in consumption volumes: Construction steel and HRC recorded strong growth thanks to robust domestic demand (HRC sales of HPG alone surged 64% YoY), in contrast to a sharp 20% YoY decline in the coated steel segment due to the combined impact of floods and trade defense measures.
- Selling prices have yet to find a recovery catalyst: HRC prices remained at a bottom range of USD 475/ton (-6% YTD) amid a significant supply–demand imbalance and pressure from imported products, forcing major producers (HPG, Formosa) to continue cutting prices in Q4.
- Looking ahead to 2026, supported by a recovery in construction demand driven by real estate growth and accelerated public investment, we believe the steel industry may benefit in the coming period.
Transition to a two-component retail electricity tariff
23-12-2025
: POW, NT2, REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is currently considering a transition of the retail electricity pricing mechanism toward a two-component electricity tariff, with the objectives of enhancing price transparency, encouraging more efficient electricity usage, and ensuring adequate capital recovery to support investment in the transmission network and power system dispatch.
- The two-component electricity tariff consists of a capacity charge and an energy charge.
- During the pilot phase, this mechanism is expected to be more favorable for industrial customers with high and stable peak demand, while at the same time providing incentives for users to optimize their electricity consumption patterns.
MWG – Walking under clear sky
22-12-2025
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: MWG
- MWG’s Q3-2025 results met our expectation with net sales of VND 39,853 bn (+16.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,771 bn (+121.3% YoY), supported by an earlier iPhone season, an improvement in BHX profitability, and an acceleration in financial investment.
- MWG’s share price corrected by approximately 11.0% in Q4-2025, implying trailing P/E of 19.7x and 2025/26F forward P/E of 18.7x/14.8x, all lower than the 5-year average of 20.5x and the sector average of 23.9x; this suggests the current valuation appears inexpensive relative to the expected growth recovery next year (>20.0% YoY).
- Thanks to positive backdrops across all segments and rolling our valuation to 2026 from this point, we raise our target price for MWG to VND 95,800 per share, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SoTP) methodology, corresponding to a BUY recommendation.
Fertilizer industry – Fertilizer price perspective in 2026
19-12-2025
: DCM, DPM, DDV, BFC
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The average domestic selling price of Urea/NPK/DAP/Potassium fertilizer in 2025 will increase by 17%/3%/25%/15% YoY, respectively. Fertilizer selling prices in 2026 are expected to gradually decrease following the decline in world fertilizer prices. However, we expect domestic Urea/DAP/NPK fertilizer prices (after 5% VAT) to increase by 2%/4%/2% YoY, respectively. The pre-tax selling price of Ure/DAP/NPK decreased slightly by 3%/1%/3% YoY with a gradual increase from Q2/2026. These expectations are based on the following theses:
- Vietnamese selling prices often have a certain lag compared to world selling prices. In addition, the domestic fertilizer supply is concentrated in a number of large enterprises. Therefore, the selling price will be controlled more stably than the world price.
- Demand in Brazil and India is expected to increase thanks to favorable weather (high probability of ENSO Neutral phase in 2026). At the same time, China's continued tightening of exports will be a barrier to prevent fertilizer prices from falling deeply.
- The very high fertilizer price base in 2025 creates momentum for the average price in 2026 to fall sharply.
- Prices of main agricultural products are forecast to increase slightly in 2026 except for coffee prices. However, coffee prices still remain at a high base level compared to 2019-2025.
- We find that fertilizer price forecasts by world organizations often have large delays or errors. Specifically, these organizations have sharply adjusted the projected selling prices of urea, DAP and Potassium for 2025 (up 33%, 45% and 17% respectively), showing the unpredictability of the market and the possibility that the actual price may be higher than the current forecast. (Table 5)
- In fertilizers, we expect DAP fertilizer prices to recover as input costs remain high. The price of input materials such as Sulfur (accounting for 10% of raw material prices) and Ammonia (accounting for 25% of raw material prices), increased by 123%/14% YoY respectively and far exceeded the 9% YoY increase in DAP prices.
- Ammonia prices are expected to decline slightly in 2026 but sulfur prices are expected to grow by 10% due to supply shortages in Russia and high demand from Indonesia and Morocco.
- The scarcity and expensiveness of Sulfur is tightening the profit margins of the Phosphate industry, causing the 'big man' Mosaic to announce the suspension of Super Phosphate production from mid-December 2025. The global supply-demand imbalance is the main reason for the increase in Sulfur prices. While demand in Morocco (fertilizer production) and Indonesia (nickel production) soared, supply from Russia fell sharply due to refinery incidents and export restrictions.
Seaport - Persisting oversupply will continue to exert downward pressure on freight rates in 2026
18-12-2025
: GMD, HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- The shipping market in 2025 has remained relatively resilient amid multiple headwinds, with estimated growth of around 4% and projected growth of 2–3% in 2026, as Asia continues to serve as the core hub of the global logistics network.
- Fleet supply is estimated to increase by approximately 4% in 2026, exceeding the growth rate of transport demand and thereby prolonging the state of excess capacity. This pressure could intensify significantly if shipping lines resume routing through the Suez Canal, which may occur from the second half of 2026.
- Persistent oversupply will continue to put downward pressure on freight rates in 2026. At the same time, the time-charter market is likely to revert to moving in tandem with freight rates, as the supply of charter vessels has become more abundant compared to the SPLY.
NLG – Presales value 10M2025 recorded breakthrough growth
17-12-2025
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NLG
- NLG's 10M2025 presales reached VND 9,293 billion (+85% MoM), with October alone contributing more than VND 4,200 billion thanks to the simultaneous opening of key projects such as Waterpoint, Mizuki and Izumi.
- We believe that the period 2025–2026 will serve as a "seed" for the next growth cycle, as NLG promotes sales at 9 component projects in the period 2025–2027 to accumulate presales for the recording period 2026–2027. Accordingly, presales value in 2026 are estimated at VND 11,595 billion (+8% YoY).
- According to our estimates, 2026 is not the year of NLG's revenue growth when handing over previously sold products, with revenue estimated at VND 4,700 billion (-1% YoY); however, NPAT-MI is expected to record growth and reach VND 1,664 billion (+115% YoY) thanks to the handover structure focusing on low-rise products.
Vietnam upstream Oil & Gas: Legal reforms catalyzing a new E&P cycle
16-12-2025
: PVS, PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVD PVS Upstream
- We believe Vietnam’s upstream oil & gas segment is entering a new investment cycle, following a prolonged downturn in exploration and production (E&P) activities. E&P capital expenditure appears to have bottomed out during 2021–2022 and has started to recover since 2023, with investment momentum expected to strengthen over 2025–2027 as operators seek to offset declining reserves and output from mature fields.
- At the same time, the E&P legal framework is being progressively refined in a more supportive direction, with a series of new regulations covering the entire value chain from seismic survey – exploration – field development – production – field expansion. We view these reforms as a structural “inflection point”, helping to address long-standing bottlenecks related to cost recovery mechanisms, project approval procedures, and production sharing arrangements.
- The combination of a recovering investment cycle and policy reform is laying the groundwork for a new growth phase in the upstream segment, which in our view could translate into meaningful opportunities for oil & gas service companies, particularly drilling contractors (PVD) and EPCI players (PVS).
HDB – 2025F PBT forecast to grow 24% YoY driven by solid expansion in non-interest income
15-12-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Cumulative 9M consolidated PBT reached VND 14.8 trillion (+17% YoY), completing 70% of the full-year plan. In particular, consolidated PBT in Q3/25 exceeded VND 4.7 trillion (+0% QoQ, +5% YoY). Q3/25 profit showed positive highlights thanks to reductions in operating expenses (-11% QoQ) and provisioning expenses (-45% QoQ); however, net interest income declined significantly (-21% QoQ) due to (1) weak credit growth at the parent bank (-3.6% QoQ) and a narrowing NIM (-140 bps QoQ).
- We forecast HDB’s 2025F PBT to reach VND 20.8 trillion, up 24% YoY. Profit growth is driven by (1) credit growth of 24.9% (fulfilling the annual plan), (2) NIM declining by 40 bps YoY to 4.8%, (3) strong growth in non-interest income supported by service income (+206% YoY), gains from securities trading (+1,076% YoY), and FX trading gains (+49% YoY), and (4) operating expenses being streamlined (-6% YoY). However, a sharp increase in net newly formed NPLs during the year leads to provisioning expenses rising by 82% YoY.
- Cumulatively over 9 months, Net interest income / Total operating income / Provisioning expenses / PBT have achieved 74% / 73% / 80% / 71% of our full-year forecasts, respectively. We set a target price for HDB shares at VND 36,600/share (2026F P/B of 1.3x), equivalent to a total return of 22% based on the closing price on 15/12/2025.
3Q/2025 Business results: Electricity and office leasing segment leads profit growth
12-12-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2025, REE's parent company's revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 26% and 41% YoY, respectively. In particular, the revenue of the energy segment increased by 25% mainly thanks to the high hydropower output (+26% YoY).
- NPAT-MI of the M&E segment increased by 86% YoY thanks to the completion of the Long Thanh International Airport project.
- NPAT-MI of the real-estate improved by 33% YoY thanks to growth in occupancy rate of Etown 6 building.
FRT – Sustaining Q3 growth momentum with signs of FPT Shop recovery to exceed the 2025 plan
11-12-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Q3 net revenue reached VND 13,110.9 billion (+26% YoY, +15% QoQ), NPAT-MI came in at VND 219 billion (+55% YoY, +84% QoQ). Cumulative 9M2025 achieved 71% and 73% of VDSC's forecast.
- Long Chau maintained strong growth, contributing 67% of total revenue (+31% YoY, +9% QoQ), supported by 151 new stores (126 pharmacies, 25 VCs) and stable average revenue per store of VND 1.16 billion (+3% QoQ). NPAT-MI reached VND 170 billion (78% of total) with NPAT-MI margin of 2% (+0.2 pps QoQ).
- FPT Shop recovered with revenue growth of 11% YoY and returned to profitability in Q3 with VND 48 billion - the highest level in the past 3 years (if excluding financial income recorded in Q3/2024).
- NPAT-MI margin improved to 1.7% (+0.3 pps YoY, +0.7 pps QoQ) thanks to the more favorable contribution mix from higher GPM items such as CE (TVs, refrigerators), dietary supplements, ETC drugs. SG&A/revenue increased slightly but remained controlled at 16.8% (+0.8 pps YoY, -1.1 pps QoQ), supporting faster top-line growth across both chains.
- We maintain a positive outlook for consumer demand in Q4 and into 2026, particularly in the pharmaceutical retail and vaccination segments. Meanwhile, demand for electronics and home appliances is expected to recover at FPT Shop from late 2025 to early 2026.
26-12-2025
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