18-11-2025VNINDEX1659.925.500.33% HNXIndex267.36-1.33-0.49% UPCOM120-0.66-0.55% VN301898.074.530.24% VN1001810.726.540.36% HNX30588.56-5.23-0.88% VNXALL2847.5610.000.35% VNX503136.8912.740.41% VNMID2339.173.360.14% VNSML1541.22.150.14% VNM – Gradually revealing positive momentum
18-11-2025
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: VNM
- In Q3-2025, VNM posted net revenue of VND 16,953 bn (+1.4% QoQ, +9.1% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND 2,527 bn (+2.1% QoQ, +5.1% YoY) — beating our projection by 4%, driven by a sharp acceleration in exports. The key narratives from Q2 remained intact: post-restructuring stability in the domestic GT channel and continued tailwind from depressed raw milk powder prices.
- We retain our 2025 forecasts with NPAT-MI at VND 8,824 bn (-6.1% YoY) and a target price of VND 66,100, combined to an attractive 6.1% dividend yield, we recommend ACCUMULATE for VNM.
SAB 3Q25 Results: Improved NPAT driven by lower materials costs and post-M&A cost allocation
17-11-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Anh Tran
Tags: SAB Result updates
- Net revenue in Q3-2025 reached VND 6,437 billion (-16.1% YoY) due to SAB's proactive reduction in output for the sell-in channel (sales to distributors) while consumption through the sell-out channel (distributors to consumers) continued to grow. Overall, beer consumption has not yet recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels.
- NPAT-MI reached VND 1,361 billion (+21.6% YoY) with an NPAT-MI margin of 21.6% (+6.4 pps YoY, +3.2 pps QoQ) thanks to lower raw materials costs YoY (main driver), along with the reversal of significant financial expenses related to the SBB M&A deal.
- Based on our observations, beer consumption in 2025 remains weak. However, SAB benefited from lower material costs and post M&A adjustments, which made its performance more positive than our previously conservative forecast. Our 12-month target price is VND 50,000/share. With a cash dividend of VND 5,000/share over thr next year, SAB is suitable for investors who prefer dividend investment strategy, offering a 10% dividend yield.
OCB – PBT Q3/2025 posted solid growth driven by expanding non-interest income and strengthened bad debt recovery
14-11-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: OCB
- PBT for Q3/2025 reached over VND 1.5 trillion, demonstrating robust growth of 54% QoQ and 249% YoY, driven by the following factors: (1) quarterly NIM improving to 3.2% (+17bps QoQ, -22bps YoY); (2) a solid expansion in non-interest income (+10% QoQ, +123% YoY) driven by bancassurance and corporate advisory activities; and (3) a reduction in provision expenses (-49% QoQ, -65% YoY). Compared to our prior forecasts, OCB's Q3/2025 business results exhibited several positive aspects, notably the expansion of non-interest income and accelerated recovery of non-performing loans (NPLs), leading to PBT exceeding our forecast (near VND 1 trillion) by 58%. Cumulative PBT for the nine-month period recorded over VND 3.4 trillion (+34% YoY), achieving 65% of the full-year target (over VND 5.2 trillion).
- We anticipate that OCB's 2025 credit growth will be constrained by its credit quota (OCB is currently awaiting approval for a supplementary credit limit, with the initial limit being 13-14%). However, the bank's NIM in Q4/2025 is expected to continue improving due to (1) the shift in loan-tenor structure toward medium- and long-term loans (from real estate business and construction sectors); (2) strengthened bad debt recovery activities; and (3) a slower increase in funding costs, as the bank is nearly sufficiently funded and maintains CASA ratio.
- The nine-month cumulative Net interest income/ Total operating income/ Provision expenses/ PBT have respectively achieved 72%/ 70%/ 57%/ 76% of our previous full-year forecast. We will revise our forecasts to reflect the updated credit growth outlook and provide detailed updates on forecasts and valuation in upcoming reports.
MSH – NPATMI maintains double-digit growth momentum thanks to market diversification
13-11-2025
: MSH
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In Q3-FY25, MSH recorded NPAT-MI of VND 200 billion (+54% YoY). The results once again exceeded our expectations, driven by its ability to maintain a superior gross margin in the CMT segment – well above the industry average. This improvement stemmed from the addition of new Chinese clients since Q4-FY24.
PVS – 10M2025 results: Revenue surpasses expectations and annual plan
12-11-2025
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVS
- In the first 10 months of 2025, PVS delivered an impressive performance, with consolidated revenue and pre-tax profit rising 50% and 32% YoY, respectively — exceeding its 10-month plan and even surpassing full-year 2024 revenue. The Mechanical & Construction (M&C) segment remained the primary growth driver, underpinned by key domestic projects such as Block B – O Mon, Golden Camel, and Sututrang Phase 2B, all achieving notable execution milestones. Meanwhile, international expansion continued through offshore wind projects across Europe, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.
- Additionally, we expect potential provision reversals at the Sao Vang–Dai Nguyet project and positive progress in land tax settlement at Sao Mai–Ben Dinh Port to support consolidated earnings. However, administrative restructuring of provinces (effective from July 1, 2025) may temporarily delay tax-related procedures.
- Backed by a robust project backlog, effective cost management, and stable cash flow from long-term service contracts, PVS is well-positioned to sustain strong earnings growth into late 2025 and 2026.
Overview of the Concrete Market in Vietnam
11-11-2025
: THG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Concrete
- Stable growth in the past: During 2023–2025, Vietnam’s concrete industry has maintained stable growth momentum thanks to the recovery of construction demand. Domestic cement output in the first nine months of 2025 is estimated at 55 million tons (+29% YoY). The strong cement consumption indicates corresponding growth in concrete demand, as cement is primarily used as an input in concrete production. Meanwhile, two other key materials—sand and construction stone—have experienced sharp price increases in 2025 (+27% and +10% YTD, respectively).Gross profit: BMP and NTP's gross profits remained high thanks to low plastic resin costs, reaching 734 billion VND (+21% YoY, +48% QoQ) and 500 billion VND (+46% YoY, -22% QoQ), respectively.
- Positive short- and medium-term outlook: The concrete industry benefits from policies stabilizing the real estate market, promoting infrastructure investment, and supporting urbanization trends. Between 2025–2033, Vietnam’s concrete market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.4%.
- Emerging trends in products and materials: There is increasing demand for precast and high-performance concrete due to their advantages in quality, construction time, and flexibility. At the same time, companies are diversifying supply sources and shifting toward eco-friendly materials (such as artificial sand, fly ash, slag, and blended cement) to ensure sustainable development and reduce CO₂ emissions.
IDC – Preparing for a new business phase
10-11-2025
: IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 9M2025, IDC recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 6.4 trillion (-7% YoY) and VND 2.35 trillion (-13% YoY), respectively. IP land and infrastructure leasing revenue reached VND 2.2 trillion (-26% YoY), reflecting recognition for 64 hectares of leased area—comprising 34 hectares from 2024 MOUs and 30 hectares from new 2025 contracts.
- For the newly approved industrial parks (Tan Phuoc 01 IP in Tien Giang and Vinh Quang IP in Hai Phong), IDC is finalizing land clearance by end-2025, enabling infrastructure construction to commence in 2026.
BFC – Business results Q3/2025 – Hope hardship is over
07-11-2025
: BFC
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue in Q3/2025 reached VND 2,059 billion (+1% YoY) as the estimated average NPK selling price increasing 16% YoY to 14,941 VND/kg, while production volume decreased 12% YoY due to floods and storms in September 2025. Q3/2025 gross margin reached 10.7%, slightly down from 14% in Q3/2024 and 11.7% in Q2/2025 due to input costs of increasing faster than the NPK selling price. NPAT-MI margin of Q3/2025 reached 3% compared to 2.6% in the same period, thanks to selling expenses and administrative expenses decreasing by 36%/33% YoY, respectively. As a result, Q3/2025 NPAT-MI reached 61 billion VND (+16% YoY).
- Net revenue in 9M2025 reached 8,148 billion VND (+18% YoY) and net profit after corporate income tax reached 269 billion VND (-5% YoY). Net revenue increased thanks to production volume reaching 593 thousand tons (+13% YoY) and the estimated average NPK selling price increasing 5% YoY.
- Business results in Q4/2025 are expected to be positive with Q4/2025 revenue estimated at VND 3,048 billion (+23% YoY) thanks to NPK selling prices expected to increase by 23% while consumption volume is expected to increase over the same period. NPAT-MI in Q4/2025 is estimated at VND 108 billion (+52% YoY)
- Revenue in 2026 is expected to reach VND 11,882 billion (+6% YoY) thanks to a 4% YoY increase in consumption volume and a slight 2% YoY increase in NPK selling prices. Gross margin is expected to be equivalent to the same period due to the increase in input cost costs according to the selling price of NPK. The ratio of selling expenses & management expenses to revenue is expected to be equivalent to the same period with selling expenses increasing by 7% YoY due to the need for advertising to increase consumption. Financial expenses are expected to decrease slightly by 11% with the expectation that businesses will reduce short-term loans. Since then, NPAT-MI in 2026 is estimated at VND 415 billion (+10% YoY).
- We find that the short-term valuation method for BFC in terms of P/B to ROE is appropriate because the correlation ratio between P/B and ROE of the business is 0.8 for the period January 2019 - October 2025. With an ROE of over 20%, BFC are typically paid at an average P/B of 1.8x. We will look at updating the target price in the most recent report.
POW – Q3/2025 Business performance saw outstanding improvement
06-11-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- POW's revenue and net profit – minority interest (NPAT-MI) improved significantly in Q3/2025, up 30% and 104% YoY, respectively.
- POW total output increased by 33% YoY with gas-fired power rose by 12% YoY, coal power increasing by 75% YoY and hydropower increasing by 34% YoY.
- The company's Qc output increased by 38% YoY, led by Vung Ang 1 (+82% YoY) and the gas-fired group also increased by 29% YoY.
- Improved selling prices and reduced fuel prices helped gross profit margin increase by 11.5 pps YoY, reaching 16.4%.
MSN – Operational efficiency improvement journey remains on track
05-11-2025
: MSN
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q3-2025, MSN recorded net revenue of VND 21,164 bn (+15.6% QoQ, -1.5% YoY), and NPAT-MI of VND 1,208 bn (+17.1% QoQ, +72.4% YoY), in line with our expectation. Similar to Q2-2025, these results were driven by margin improvements at WCM, MHT, MML, and PLH, as well as contributions from TCB, despite adverse impacts from MCH.
- We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast for MSN with NPAT-MI at VND 3,691 bn (+84.6% YoY), and a target price of VND 93,600 per share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation.
Q3-2025 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Credit Growth Sustains Momentum While Deposit Mobilization Abruptly Decelerates; Asset Quality Shows Marginal Improvement
04-11-2025
: CTG, BID, VCB, MBB, ACB, TCB, VPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Industry pre-tax profit in Q3-2025 reached VND 87 trillion (+25% YoY, -2% QoQ), driven by robust growth in total operating income, supported by multiple non-interest income components, alongside a moderate increase in credit costs. For 9M25, aggregate PBT of listed banks amounted to nearly VND 260 trillion, reflecting 19% YoY growth and achieving 74% of the full-year 2025 target.
- Credit outstanding of listed banks as of 9M25 stood at VND 13.8 quadrillion (contributing 78% to total system-wide credit exposure), with year-to-date (YTD) growth of 14.5% (versus 13.4% for the overall system), exceeding the 11.1% YTD growth recorded in 9M24. The divergence in credit growth rates across banks has narrowed compared to the prior quarter, as many institutions approach their annual credit limits assigned at the start of the year and shift focus toward optimizing portfolio yield rather than scale expansion.
- Deposit mobilization growth for listed banks slowed to 11.4% YTD by Q3-2025 (from 10.0% at end-Q2-2025), widening the deposit-credit growth gap to -3.1 percentage points. To safeguard liquidity amid limited certificate of deposit (CD) issuance in Q3-2025 and subdued deposit inflows, commercial banks significantly ramped up interbank market activity (VND 480 trillion) and continued to raise deposit rates. This was complemented by government liquidity support, with the State Treasury expanding term deposits (over VND 100 trillion) at state-owned commercial banks.
- Industry NIM declined 10 basis points QoQ to 3.0%, matching the Q1-2025 trough and 30 basis points below the year-ago level, as funding costs rose faster than asset yields. The deposit-credit growth disparity, coupled with elevated year-end credit disbursement demand, is expected to exert further pressure on funding costs and NIM.
- On-balance-sheet NPLs across the industry increased by approximately VND 7 trillion QoQ to VND 274 trillion, with the NPL ratio at 2.01% (Q2-2025: 2.04%). This remains non-concerning, however, as net new NPL formation continued to decelerate from the prior quarter to VND 28 trillion, while banks proactively scaled back risk resolution activities to approximately VND 21 trillion (below net NPL formation). Furthermore, specific provisioning was strengthened (VND 34 trillion), lifting the industry loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage ratio marginally to 96% (Q2-2025: 91%).
KDH – Profit growth thanks to the handover of the Gladia project
03-11-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- Accumulated in 9M2025, KDH recorded revenue of VND 2,855 billion (+132% YoY) and profit after tax - parent shareholders (EBITDA) of VND 556 billion (35% YoY). Gross profit margin and profit margin - profit margin reached 52% and 19%, respectively. In the third quarter alone, revenue and profit after tax reached VND 1,098 billion (+5% QoQ, +335% YoY) and VND 235 billion (+18% QoQ, +234% YoY) respectively when the handover of the Gladia project began.
- By the end of the third quarter of 2025, KDH's inventory continued to maintain a high level of VND 23,085 billion (+2.8% YoY), continuing to grow thanks to site clearance activities and infrastructure deployment at key projects such as Tan Tao, Binh Trung – Binh Trung Dong, Phong Phu 2 and Solina, etc to compensate for the decrease in value from the handover of the Gladia project.
- The Gladia project is expected to become the main growth driver for KDH in the second half of the year. We expect the project to contribute about VND 5,650 billion to total revenue in 2025, with revenue for the whole year of 2025 projected to reach VND 7,431 billion (+126% YoY), LNST-CDM reach VND 1,114 billion (+38% YoY).
18-11-2025
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