11-11-2025VNINDEX1593.6113.070.83% HNXIndex261.082.901.12% UPCOM117.850.400.34% VN301821.617.420.97% VN1001732.9617.401.01% HNX30565.2210.911.97% VNXALL2725.2126.570.98% VNX502999.4331.901.07% VNMID2229.2429.161.33% VNSML1502.814.240.28% Overview of the Concrete Market in Vietnam
11-11-2025
: THG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Concrete
- Stable growth in the past: During 2023–2025, Vietnam’s concrete industry has maintained stable growth momentum thanks to the recovery of construction demand. Domestic cement output in the first nine months of 2025 is estimated at 55 million tons (+29% YoY). The strong cement consumption indicates corresponding growth in concrete demand, as cement is primarily used as an input in concrete production. Meanwhile, two other key materials—sand and construction stone—have experienced sharp price increases in 2025 (+27% and +10% YTD, respectively).Gross profit: BMP and NTP's gross profits remained high thanks to low plastic resin costs, reaching 734 billion VND (+21% YoY, +48% QoQ) and 500 billion VND (+46% YoY, -22% QoQ), respectively.
- Positive short- and medium-term outlook: The concrete industry benefits from policies stabilizing the real estate market, promoting infrastructure investment, and supporting urbanization trends. Between 2025–2033, Vietnam’s concrete market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.4%.
- Emerging trends in products and materials: There is increasing demand for precast and high-performance concrete due to their advantages in quality, construction time, and flexibility. At the same time, companies are diversifying supply sources and shifting toward eco-friendly materials (such as artificial sand, fly ash, slag, and blended cement) to ensure sustainable development and reduce CO₂ emissions.
IDC – Preparing for a new business phase
10-11-2025
: IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 9M2025, IDC recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 6.4 trillion (-7% YoY) and VND 2.35 trillion (-13% YoY), respectively. IP land and infrastructure leasing revenue reached VND 2.2 trillion (-26% YoY), reflecting recognition for 64 hectares of leased area—comprising 34 hectares from 2024 MOUs and 30 hectares from new 2025 contracts.
- For the newly approved industrial parks (Tan Phuoc 01 IP in Tien Giang and Vinh Quang IP in Hai Phong), IDC is finalizing land clearance by end-2025, enabling infrastructure construction to commence in 2026.
BFC – Business results Q3/2025 – Hope hardship is over
07-11-2025
: BFC
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue in Q3/2025 reached VND 2,059 billion (+1% YoY) as the estimated average NPK selling price increasing 16% YoY to 14,941 VND/kg, while production volume decreased 12% YoY due to floods and storms in September 2025. Q3/2025 gross margin reached 10.7%, slightly down from 14% in Q3/2024 and 11.7% in Q2/2025 due to input costs of increasing faster than the NPK selling price. NPAT-MI margin of Q3/2025 reached 3% compared to 2.6% in the same period, thanks to selling expenses and administrative expenses decreasing by 36%/33% YoY, respectively. As a result, Q3/2025 NPAT-MI reached 61 billion VND (+16% YoY).
- Net revenue in 9M2025 reached 8,148 billion VND (+18% YoY) and net profit after corporate income tax reached 269 billion VND (-5% YoY). Net revenue increased thanks to production volume reaching 593 thousand tons (+13% YoY) and the estimated average NPK selling price increasing 5% YoY.
- Business results in Q4/2025 are expected to be positive with Q4/2025 revenue estimated at VND 3,048 billion (+23% YoY) thanks to NPK selling prices expected to increase by 23% while consumption volume is expected to increase over the same period. NPAT-MI in Q4/2025 is estimated at VND 108 billion (+52% YoY)
- Revenue in 2026 is expected to reach VND 11,882 billion (+6% YoY) thanks to a 4% YoY increase in consumption volume and a slight 2% YoY increase in NPK selling prices. Gross margin is expected to be equivalent to the same period due to the increase in input cost costs according to the selling price of NPK. The ratio of selling expenses & management expenses to revenue is expected to be equivalent to the same period with selling expenses increasing by 7% YoY due to the need for advertising to increase consumption. Financial expenses are expected to decrease slightly by 11% with the expectation that businesses will reduce short-term loans. Since then, NPAT-MI in 2026 is estimated at VND 415 billion (+10% YoY).
- We find that the short-term valuation method for BFC in terms of P/B to ROE is appropriate because the correlation ratio between P/B and ROE of the business is 0.8 for the period January 2019 - October 2025. With an ROE of over 20%, BFC are typically paid at an average P/B of 1.8x. We will look at updating the target price in the most recent report.
POW – Q3/2025 Business performance saw outstanding improvement
06-11-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- POW's revenue and net profit – minority interest (NPAT-MI) improved significantly in Q3/2025, up 30% and 104% YoY, respectively.
- POW total output increased by 33% YoY with gas-fired power rose by 12% YoY, coal power increasing by 75% YoY and hydropower increasing by 34% YoY.
- The company's Qc output increased by 38% YoY, led by Vung Ang 1 (+82% YoY) and the gas-fired group also increased by 29% YoY.
- Improved selling prices and reduced fuel prices helped gross profit margin increase by 11.5 pps YoY, reaching 16.4%.
MSN – Operational efficiency improvement journey remains on track
05-11-2025
: MSN
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q3-2025, MSN recorded net revenue of VND 21,164 bn (+15.6% QoQ, -1.5% YoY), and NPAT-MI of VND 1,208 bn (+17.1% QoQ, +72.4% YoY), in line with our expectation. Similar to Q2-2025, these results were driven by margin improvements at WCM, MHT, MML, and PLH, as well as contributions from TCB, despite adverse impacts from MCH.
- We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast for MSN with NPAT-MI at VND 3,679 bn (+84.0% YoY), and a target price of VND 93,600 per share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation.
Q3-2025 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Credit Growth Sustains Momentum While Deposit Mobilization Abruptly Decelerates; Asset Quality Shows Marginal Improvement
04-11-2025
: CTG, BID, VCB, MBB, ACB, TCB, VPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Industry pre-tax profit in Q3-2025 reached VND 87 trillion (+25% YoY, -2% QoQ), driven by robust growth in total operating income, supported by multiple non-interest income components, alongside a moderate increase in credit costs. For 9M25, aggregate PBT of listed banks amounted to nearly VND 260 trillion, reflecting 19% YoY growth and achieving 74% of the full-year 2025 target.
- Credit outstanding of listed banks as of 9M25 stood at VND 13.8 quadrillion (contributing 78% to total system-wide credit exposure), with year-to-date (YTD) growth of 14.5% (versus 13.4% for the overall system), exceeding the 11.1% YTD growth recorded in 9M24. The divergence in credit growth rates across banks has narrowed compared to the prior quarter, as many institutions approach their annual credit limits assigned at the start of the year and shift focus toward optimizing portfolio yield rather than scale expansion.
- Deposit mobilization growth for listed banks slowed to 11.4% YTD by Q3-2025 (from 10.0% at end-Q2-2025), widening the deposit-credit growth gap to -3.1 percentage points. To safeguard liquidity amid limited certificate of deposit (CD) issuance in Q3-2025 and subdued deposit inflows, commercial banks significantly ramped up interbank market activity (VND 480 trillion) and continued to raise deposit rates. This was complemented by government liquidity support, with the State Treasury expanding term deposits (over VND 100 trillion) at state-owned commercial banks.
- Industry NIM declined 10 basis points QoQ to 3.0%, matching the Q1-2025 trough and 30 basis points below the year-ago level, as funding costs rose faster than asset yields. The deposit-credit growth disparity, coupled with elevated year-end credit disbursement demand, is expected to exert further pressure on funding costs and NIM.
- On-balance-sheet NPLs across the industry increased by approximately VND 7 trillion QoQ to VND 274 trillion, with the NPL ratio at 2.01% (Q2-2025: 2.04%). This remains non-concerning, however, as net new NPL formation continued to decelerate from the prior quarter to VND 28 trillion, while banks proactively scaled back risk resolution activities to approximately VND 21 trillion (below net NPL formation). Furthermore, specific provisioning was strengthened (VND 34 trillion), lifting the industry loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage ratio marginally to 96% (Q2-2025: 91%).
KDH – Profit growth thanks to the handover of the Gladia project
03-11-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- Accumulated in 9M2025, KDH recorded revenue of VND 2,855 billion (+132% YoY) and profit after tax - parent shareholders (EBITDA) of VND 556 billion (35% YoY). Gross profit margin and profit margin - profit margin reached 52% and 19%, respectively. In the third quarter alone, revenue and profit after tax reached VND 1,098 billion (+5% QoQ, +335% YoY) and VND 235 billion (+18% QoQ, +234% YoY) respectively when the handover of the Gladia project began.
- By the end of the third quarter of 2025, KDH's inventory continued to maintain a high level of VND 23,085 billion (+2.8% YoY), continuing to grow thanks to site clearance activities and infrastructure deployment at key projects such as Tan Tao, Binh Trung – Binh Trung Dong, Phong Phu 2 and Solina, etc to compensate for the decrease in value from the handover of the Gladia project.
- The Gladia project is expected to become the main growth driver for KDH in the second half of the year. We expect the project to contribute about VND 5,650 billion to total revenue in 2025, with revenue for the whole year of 2025 projected to reach VND 7,431 billion (+126% YoY), LNST-CDM reach VND 1,114 billion (+38% YoY).
U.S. credit market remains resilient to short-term shocks
31-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Collapse of First Brands and Tricolor amplifies credit quality concerns in the U.S. private sector
- Economic resilience and capital buffers keep U.S. Financial system under control
Gold Exchange: Information on the pilot and reference to the Shanghai Gold Exchange
30-10-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- In October 2025, the SBV proposed 03 pilot models for establishing a gold exchange: (1) Establishment of a National Gold Exchange; (2) Allowing gold to be traded on the commodity exchange; (3) Setting up a gold exchange in the Vietnamese international financial center. The pilot project requires a trial-and-error mechanism to allow for step-by-step refinement throughout implementation process, in order to align with Vietnam’s evolving economic context, available resources, infrastructure capacity, and the gradual development of a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework.
- In the Asian region, we consider the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to be a relevant reference model for Vietnam’s pilot gold exchange, for several reasons: (1) It was established and supervised by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has operated for many years, and possesses a relatively mature regulatory and operational framework; (2) Its trading activities are primarily focused on physical spot gold, which aligns with Vietnam’s initial pilot phase; (3) It features a clear and well-structured membership system, along with a roadmap for expanding market participation from domestic members and investors to international participants.
Vietnam Petroleum supply – demand outlook and Impact on retail fuel companies
29-10-2025
: PLX, OIL
: Petroleum Distribution
: Huong Le
Tags: E10 biofuel Electric vehicles (EVs) BEVs PHEVs
- We believe Vietnam’s petroleum market remains in a relatively balanced supply–demand condition, with the Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries together meeting around 70% of domestic demand. However, dependence on imported ethanol and fluctuations in global crude prices remain key risks.
- Fuel volume demand is expected to grow steadily by 3 - 4% per year through 2030, supported by economic recovery and transport infrastructure expansion. Nonetheless, growth momentum will likely moderate post-2028 as electric vehicles (EVs) become more common and energy efficiency policies tighten. In addition, the shift toward E10 biofuel could open opportunities for market share expansion for PLX and other leading players, though challenges related to ethanol costs and blending infrastructure investment.
- We also expect the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in Vietnam to have only a limited impact on fuel demand in the short term. Over the long term, the effect will depend on factors like government incentives, charging infrastructure development, and production costs. International experience shows that EV adoption usually varies across markets and does not grow in a straight line.
LHG - Shortage of revenue from IP land lease
28-10-2025
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In Q3, LHG reported revenue of VND 112 billion (+23% YoY, -50% QoQ), comprising: 1/ VND 55 billion from leasing ready-built factories (RBFs) – driven by high occupancy rates at existing facilities, with no new projects commencing operations; 2/ No revenue recognized from industrial land leasing, as no new tenants were secured (versus positive contributions in 1H2025). LHG posted modest net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 46 billion (+10% YoY, -49% QoQ) – in line with expectations given the absence of land leasing revenue.
- Regarding the high-rise factory project (Phase 2, 26,000 m² GLA), the external structure is now complete, with ongoing work focused on fire protection systems and internal infrastructure fit-out. The company maintains its schedule for inauguration in December 2025, positioning the asset for leasing eligibility in 2026 – a key driver supporting projected RBF revenue of VND 252 billion in 2026 (+15.6% YoY).
Monetary Market update Otc 2025: Interest rate and Exchange rate undercurrents
27-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV raised the lending scale in the open market operations (OMO) in October. Overall, the SBV did not significantly boost liquidity support for the banking system during the month. However, the pace of net injections tended to accelerate from mid-October, when interbank interest rates surpassed the 5.0% per annum threshold.
- With the SBV’s cautious policy stance, we expect interbank rates to remain elevated in the final months of the year. At the same time, the upward trend in deposit rates at commercial banks is likely to become more evident as credit growth accelerates in the last quarter.
- Given the current growth momentum and referencing historical credit patterns in the fourth quarter of previous years, total credit growth in 2025 is estimated at 19–20%, exceeding the SBV’s initial target of 16%.
- Over the past month, several fragmented warnings from the authorities have been issued regarding the issuance and use of bond mobilization funds by credit institutions, tighter control over lending for real estate deposits under private agreements, and enhanced supervision to prevent arbitrage between official and unofficial exchange rates.
- The record-high gap between the official and free-market exchange rates reflects, to some extent, limited USD supply both within and outside the banking system. In the short term, the SBV’s committed future foreign currency supply (around USD 4.4 billion) serves as a key anchor for the official exchange rate. Nonetheless, we believe that the abnormal spread between the two markets will not persist for long. Moreover, the free-market exchange rate movements may be pricing in expectations of VND depreciation pressure in 2026
11-11-2025
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