19-03-2026VNINDEX1699.13-14.70-0.86% HNXIndex245.73-2.05-0.83% UPCOM123.95-0.91-0.73% VN301854.19-14.65-0.78% VN1001771.74-11.82-0.66% HNX30523.62-3.94-0.75% VNXALL2763.09-18.65-0.67% VNX503083.04-22.18-0.71% VNMID2136.07-18.15-0.84% VNSML1407.75-7.44-0.53% Impact of the Middle East conflict on Vietnam’s gas-fired power industry
19-03-2026
: POW, NT2, PGV
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The US/Israel-Iran conflict caused Brent oil prices to exceed USD 102/barrel (+41% MoM) and MFO prices in Singapore and Asian liquefied natural gas prices increased by 102% MoM and 87% MoM, respectively, directly putting pressure on the business performance of gas power companies such as POW, NT2 and PGV
- Although the domestic gas supply in 2026 is expected to be stable, the cost of purchasing gas at NT2 and PGV is expected to increase with oil price fluctuations, creating great financial risks when production prices exceed the market electricity selling price (FMP).
- The escalating LNG price increase threatens the ability of the Nhon Trach 3 & 4 (POW) plant cluster to recover capital and risks slowing down the national power generation development roadmap for the period 2025–2030 due to the shortage of price protection tools.
PVT – Q4/2025 results: Gross margin recovery driven by improving freight rates
18-03-2026
: PVT
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVT
- In Q4/2025, PVT reported revenue of VND 4,480bn (+34% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 266bn (+27% YoY). The results were better than our expectations, mainly thanks to improving freight rates and better gross margins.
- For full-year 2025, revenue reached over VND 16,000bn (+36% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND 1,038bn, much higher than the company’s plan. This shows that PVT still operated well despite weaker market conditions.
- For 2026, we expect better performance supported by stable domestic demand and recovering international freight rates, especially due to Middle East tensions.
MSB – NIM expansion potential driven by a solid CASA base
17-03-2026
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Consolidated PBT for 2025 remained muted, reaching just over VND7 trillion (+2% YoY). PBT fell short of the plan by VND1 trillion (fulfilling only 88% of the target) due to the absence of one-off income from the revaluation of previously sold debt.
- We forecast MSB’s 2026F PBT to exceed VND8.3 trillion, up 18% YoY, driven mainly by (1) 21% YoY growth in net interest income (supported by NIM expansion) and (2) one-off income from the revaluation of previously sold debt (~VND500 billion).
- With improving profitability metrics and asset quality, we expect MSB’s P/B to reach 1.0x over the next 12 months. Combining two valuation methods—(1) Residual Income and (2) P/B multiple comparison—with equal weighting (50% each), we derive a target price of VND14,450 per share for MSB, implying a 27% upside from the closing price of VND11,350 as of March 17, 2026.
DCM – Q4/2025 Business Performance: Benefited from Higher Selling Prices and Lower Input Gas Costs YoY
16-03-2026
: DCM
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In Q4/2025, the company recorded net revenue of VND 4,528.3 billion (+7% YoY), while NPAT-MI surged impressively by 38% to VND 390 billion. The primary driver was a sharp improvement in gross margin to 27.6% (from 19.7% in the same period last year), driven by strong price increases for key products—Urea and NPK rose by 8% and 29% YoY, respectively—while input gas costs were estimated to be 13% lower YoY.
- By the end of 2025, net revenue recorded an impressive 26% YoY growth, reached VND 16,960 billion. The main contributors to this strong result were the significant breakthroughs in the Trading and NPK segments, which grew by 39% and 64%, respectively. Meanwhile, the Urea segment posted more modest growth of 16%. Notably, NPAT-MI reached VND 1,915 billion (+35% YoY). This robust profitability improvement was primarily driven by a sharp expansion in the Urea segment gross margin, rising from 22% to 33%, directly benefiting from a 12% increase in Urea selling prices.
- Escalating tensions in the Middle East involving the US, Israel, and Iran have directly fueled a sharp surge in crude oil prices, which in turn has driven strong gains in TTF gas prices as well as Urea and NPK fertilizer prices. This development has created positive sentiment for DCM’s share price, as the market anticipates a potential breakout in the company’s 2026 NPAT in line with rising commodity prices.
- Nevertheless, the risk of a fertilizer price reversal remains significant due to the unpredictable timing of conflict resolution, which could directly and negatively impact the company’s business performance. In our base-case scenario—assuming the conflict is brought under control relatively soon—we forecast NPAT growth for 2026 to remain steady at around 10% YoY.
HSG – Update on Q1 FY2025–2026 Business Results and 2026 Business Outlook
13-03-2026
: HSG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Q1 FY2025–2026 business results declined, with revenue reaching VND 8,409 billion (-18% YoY; flat QoQ) and parent company’s profit after tax at VND 62.4 billion (-62% YoY; -26% QoQ). The decline was mainly driven by a sharp drop in galvanized steel export volumes, while gross margin narrowed to 11.2% due to cost pressures from higher HRC price bases. The asset structure showed slight fluctuations, with inventory increasing by approximately VND 1,200 billion (maintaining over 100 days of inventory) amid low HRC prices. Meanwhile, long-term seller prepayments and other long-term receivables reached VND 1,050 billion and VND 832 billion, respectively, which may be related to the Company’s real estate investment projects.
- The FY2025–2026 General Meeting of Shareholders approved a prudent business plan, targeting revenue of VND 35,000– 37,000 billion (flat YoY) and profit after tax of VND 500–600 billion (-20% YoY), reflecting the saturated steel sheet market and ongoing export challenges. At the same time, HSG will continue expanding the Hoa Sen Home retail chain, with plans to open an additional 25 stores and increase charter capital to VND 3,000 billion, aiming for a long-term IPO.
VGI – Strongly delivered on 2025 growth targets, with solid financial health maintained
12-03-2026
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags: VGI
- 4Q2025 net revenue reached VND 12,306bn (+27.6% yoy). FY2025 net revenue totaled VND 44,188bn (+24.9% yoy), fulfilling 114.3% of the company’s annual target. All three regional markets recorded strong growth of over 20% in Q4 and 14% for the full year. Africa and Latin America posted growth rates of over 30%, around 5-6 times higher than the industry average.
- Profits and margins reached record highs in 2025. PBT increased by 42.5%, achieving 200% of the company’s plan. 4Q2025 NPAT-MI came in at VND 3,835bn, bringing FY2025 NPAT-MI to VND 11,292bn. SEA market delivered the highest profitability, with NPAT margins exceeding 73% in 4Q and 54% for the full year, driven by faster capital payback compared to other markets.
- A key contributor to NPAT growth was the reversal of VND 626bn in provisions in 4Q, as Mytel accelerated repayments of overdue debts in line with the plan announced at the 2025 AGM. For the full year, this item declined by 51% yoy, contributing to lower SG&A expenses, with the SG&A-to-revenue ratio reaching 24.7% (-4.7 pps yoy).
- VGI is in a solid and sustainable growth phase, with 7/9 markets having already reached payback, allowing the company to focus on expanding and further monetizing its services. FY2025 results exceeded our expectations, surpassing our revenue and PBT forecasts by 4% and 10%. Our prel. 2026F revenue growth of 16% yoy and PBT growth of 34% yoy for VGI.
REE – Business results Q4/2025: Profit slips despite improved revenue
11-03-2026
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags: REE
- In Q4/2025, REE achieved revenue of VND 2,881 billion (+23.2% YoY) thanks to a breakthrough in the refrigeration M&E revenue segment (+78% YoY). However, Net Profit After Tax – Interest of Minority (NPAT-MI) decreased by 8.7% YoY to VND 619 billion due to pressure on management costs.
- Gross profit margin decreased to 36.1% due to the increase in operating costs of E-town 6. Despite the breakthrough in M&E revenue, the value of newly signed contracts in 2025 decreased by 14% YoY, reflecting the challenge of maintaining long-term workloads.
- In 2025, NPAT-MI reach VND 2,528 billion (+26.8% YoY). This positive result is thanks to the 30% YoY growth in hydropower production and the strong profit recovery from the Water business.
GMD – Earnings surge on lower provisioning costs and strong JV contributions
10-03-2026
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- • In Q4-FY25, GMD reported revenue and NPATMI of VND 1,614 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 513 billion (+119% YoY), respectively. Container throughput at the GMD’s key port clusters – Nam Dinh Vu, Binh Duong & Phuoc Long PIP, and Gemalink – reached 383 thousand TEU (-12% YoY), 501 thousand TEU (+29% YoY), and 527 thousand TEU (+17% YoY), respectively.
• For 2025, net revenue and NPATMI reached VND 5,946 billion (+23% YoY) and VND 1,677 billion (+49% YoY), fulfilling 110% and 100% of our forecasts, respectively. Overall, GMD’s 2025 operating performance aligned with our expectations set at the beginning of the year, particularly our view that Gemalink would remain the primary growth driver for GMD.
KBC – Expectations for positive 2026 performance
09-03-2026
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 2025, KBC recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 6.7 trillion (+141% YoY) and VND 3.2 trillion (+149% YoY), respectively. Industrial park (IP) land and infrastructure leasing generated VND 4.4 trillion in revenue (+251% YoY), reflecting a clear recovery as the company recorded 121 ha of leased area (+265% YoY), primarily driven by the Hung Yen Industrial Cluster (92 ha). Additionally, a major client (Goertek) signed a 26-ha lease agreement at the Nam Son Hap Linh IP, based on the MOU signed in 2024.
- Following an aggressive site clearance (land acquisition) phase to accumulate land bank in 2025, we expect KBC to benefit from a dual-growth driver in 2026: (i) development and leasing at new IPs and (ii) a resurgence in FDI capital inflows. Total leasable area is projected to reach 165 ha (+38% YoY), focused on the Trang Due 3, Que Vo 2 expansion, and Nam Son Hap Linh IPs.
- The Trang Cat Urban Area project completed its land use fee obligations in 2025, thereby qualifying the project for partial divestment and the recognition of significant revenue and cash flow in 2026, against a backdrop of improving regional infrastructure.
BMP – Update Q4/2025 business results and business outlook for 2026
06-03-2026
: BMP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- BMP ended 2025 with strong business performance, with full-year revenue reaching VND 5,510 billion (+19.4% YoY) and net profit totaling VND 1,229 billion (+24% YoY). Growth was mainly driven by the recovery in consumption and a record-high gross profit margin of 46.1%, supported by the bottoming out of input PVC resin prices. However, performance in Q4/2025 showed signs of slowing and fell short of expectations, with net profit reaching only VND 261 billion (-25% QoQ).
- Entering 2026, BMP’s business outlook is expected to remain positive, with projected revenue of VND 6,336 billion (+15% YoY) and net profit of VND 1,270 billion (+22% YoY). Growth is mainly supported by the broader recovery of the construction industry and the company’s strategy to gradually ease discount policies to expand market share.
- Although PVC resin prices are experiencing a short-term increase as Chinese manufacturers accelerate exports ahead of the planned removal of VAT refunds in April 2026, the significant domestic oversupply is expected to limit any sharp price surge. As a result, BMP is projected to maintain a high gross profit margin of around 45.5%, providing sufficient room to absorb higher selling expenses while continuing its strategy to expand market share.
Rubber industry – Dual impact causes rubber prices to jump sharply
05-03-2026
: DPR, PHR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- Rubber prices are supported in the short term by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but this impact is likely to be temporary and depends on the development of the global energy market.
- The medium- to long-term outlook of the rubber industry is expected to continue to be supported by tight supply factors, while demand from the automobile industry and tire production is expected to recover from the pivot of tariff policy, making selling prices expected to continue to maintain a high base level (VND 48-50 million per ton).
- Regarding the conclusion of the inspection of the management, use of state capital and assets at Vietnam Rubber Industry Group, we believe that one of the group's subsidiaries and in the monitoring portfolio – DPR – may increase the cash dividend payment in the upcoming 2026 General Meeting of Shareholders.
VIB – Positive 2026F PBT growth supported by NIM expansion
04-03-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Full-year 2025 PBT amounted to VND 9.1 trillion, fulfilling only 83% of the full-year target (VND 11 trillion). PBT growth in 2025 was flat YoY due to the following factors: (1) credit growth in 2025 was capped at 17.7% (2024: 21.5%); (2) NIM narrowed significantly by 64 bps YoY to 3.1%; (3) non-interest income reached VND 1.8 trillion, down 12% YoY, mainly due to negative FX trading results of VND 154 billion (2024: a gain of VND 500 billion) and investment securities trading contributing only VND 80 billion (-68% YoY); (4) operating expenses amounted to over VND 7.4 trillion (+3% YoY). ROA and ROE declined sharply to 1.4% and 16.4%, respectively (2024: 1.6% and 18.1%).
- We forecast PBT growth of 24% and 22% in 2026–2027F, respectively, driven primarily by (1) credit growth of 15.9% and 16.5%, (2) NIM expansion amid higher lending rates, and (3) improving asset quality with well-controlled credit costs.
- Given the recovery prospects for profitability metrics and asset quality, we expect VIB’s P/B valuation to reach 1.4x over the next 12 months. Using a blended valuation approach: (1) the Residual Income Model and (2) P/B peer comparison, each assigned a 50% weighting, we derive a target price of VND 20,000 per share for VIB, implying a 23% total return (including VND 700 cash dividend) from the closing price of VND 16,850 on Mar 4, 2026.
19-03-2026
2 