PVS – Q4/2025 business results: M&C gross margin at a five-year high and reversal of provisions for land rental at Sao Mai – Ben Dinh
02-02-2026
02-02-2026: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVS
- In Q4/2025, PVS delivered solid results with revenue exceeding VND 9.5 trillion (flat YoY) and NPAT-MI reaching VND 806 billion (+84% YoY), mainly driven by stronger gross margins and the reversal of provisions related to land rental at Sao Mai – Ben Dinh.
- For FY2025, consolidated revenue reached VND 32.58 trillion (+37% YoY) and NPAT-MI amounted to VND 1.823 trillion (+70% YoY), equivalent to 145% of the revenue target and 234% of the profit target for the year.
- Project updates: Key domestic projects such as Block B – O Mon, Lac Da Vang, and Su Tu Trang Phase 2B achieved important milestones. In parallel, PVS expanded its international footprint through offshore wind power projects in Europe, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and Australia.
3 VIB - 2025 PBT results achieved only 83% of the full-year target
30-01-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
PBT in Q4/25 reached over VND 2 trillion (+1% QoQ, -14% YoY). Total operating income was flat YoY at VND 5.3 trillion, of which (1) net interest income edged up 3% YoY as quarterly NIM declined sharply by 40 bps YoY despite credit growth of 17.7% YoY; (2) non-interest income fell 11% YoY, mainly due to losses from FX trading and investment securities trading (losses of VND 278 billion and VND 77 billion, respectively).
Full-year 2025 PBT amounted to VND 9.1 trillion, fulfilling only 83% of the full-year target (VND 11 trillion). PBT growth in 2025 was flat YoY due to the following factors: (1) credit growth in 2025 was capped at 17.7% (2024: 21.5%); (2) NIM narrowed significantly by 64 bps YoY to 3.1%; (3) non-interest income reached VND 1.8 trillion, down 12% YoY, mainly due to negative FX trading results of VND 154 billion (2024: a gain of VND 500 billion) and investment securities trading contributing only VND 80 billion (-68% YoY); (4) operating expenses amounted to over VND 7.4 trillion (+3% YoY). ROA and ROE declined sharply to 1.4% and 16.4%, respectively (2024: 1.6% and 18.1%).
In 2026, despite the initial credit growth quota being set at a relatively low level (~12%), we believe improvements in the retail segment, together with a strategy to diversify deposit products and promote CASA, will be key drivers for NIM and net interest income expansion. In parallel, non-interest income is expected to improve, supported by positive contributions from bancassurance and off-balance-sheet bad debt recoveries (with support from Resolution 42 on NPL resolution). In addition, we expect progress in the search for a foreign strategic shareholder to serve as a catalyst supporting a re-rating of VIB shares.
We are revisiting our forecasts and valuation (current TP of VND 20,300/share) and will provide detailed updates in upcoming reports.
Understanding the Chip Market – Definition, Classification, Value Chain and Global Status
29-01-2026
: FPT
: Technologies
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- A chip (also known as an IC) is a sophisticatedly fabricated, silicon wafer that contains millions to billions of tightly integrated electronic components.
- The value of the global semiconductor industry has grown explosively from the Covid-19 period, reaching USD 700 bn in 2025, expected to reach USD 1,000 bn in 2030, implying the expansion of the chip market size.
- The quartet of the United States - China - Taiwan - South Korea are the names that control the global chip industry game, dividing the main roles in the global semiconductor industry value chain as shown below, implying that any geopolitical fluctuations related to this quartet will significantly affect the outlook for global chip production and prices. In particular, the US controls core technologies in the chip industry such as IP & EDA, Design, Equipment, China-Taiwan-Korea controls chip industry inputs such as semiconductors, silicon wafers and test and assembly (ATP) outputs.
ANV – Record the highest profit in 2025
28-01-2026
: ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- ANV's Q4/2025 business performance grew strongly with net revenue reached VND 2,118 billion (+55.7% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND 252 billion (+4,611% YoY). Gross margin in Q4/2025 reached 20%, a sharp increase from 10.2% in Q4/2024 but slightly down from 24.4% in Q3/2025 due to a 18% QoQ decrease in Tilapia selling prices.
- Net revenue for the full year of 2025 reached VND 6,952 billion (+40% YoY) and NPAT-MI reach VND 999 billion (up 21 times YoY). The gross margin for the whole year of 2025 reached 23%, a sharp increase compared to 11.4% in 2024 thanks to changes in the pangasius export market from China to the US and tilapia sales.
- We maintain our target price of VND35,200/share, equivalent to a BUY recommendation with a current P/E of 7.2x and we expect NPAT-MI in 2026 to reach VND1,117 billion (+12% YoY) thanks to the diversification of export markets of pangasius and tilapia. The production of tilapia and pangasius segments in 2026 is expected to increase by 9%/50% YoY, respectively, while the selling price of pangasius/tilapia is expected to grow by 2%/-5% YoY, respectively.
NT2– 2025 business performance: A year of change
27-01-2026
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q4/2025, NT2’s revenue increased by 33% YoY, while profit after tax attributable to the parent company (NPAT-MI) surged (+466% YoY). This was driven by (1) a 17% YoY increase in actual power generation (Qm) and (2) the recognition of one-off income amounting to VND 268 billion.
- Full-year 2025 revenue grew 31% YoY, while NPAT-MI improved by 11x YoY, equivalent to 95%/358% of the company’s full-year plan and 99%/160% of the analyst’s forecasts.
- Gross Profit margins improved significantly in 2025 thanks to (1) NT2’s stronger bargaining position with EVN on contracted output (Qc), lifting Qc by 57% YoY, and (2) a 1% YoY decline in the average gas fuel price for the year.
- In 2026, we expect NT2’s revenue and NPAT-MI to grow by 20%/6% YoY, supported by improving gas-fired power dispatch and fuel prices remaining at low levels.
LHG - Expectation of enhanced asset utilization efficiency
26-01-2026
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 4Q2025, LHG reported net revenue of VND 122 billion (+28% YoY, +9% QoQ). The revenue mix comprised: (1) VND 55 billion from the Ready-Built Factory (RBF) segment, driven by high occupancy rates across existing facilities, while the newly completed high-rise factory has yet to generate billable revenue; and (2) No revenue recognized from Industrial Park (IP) land leases due to the absence of new lease signings (contrasting with the robust performance in 1H2025). Consequently, gross profit remained stable at VND 49 billion (-6% QoQ, +21% YoY), while Net Profit After Tax (NPAT) reached a modest VND 46 billion (flat vs. 3Q2025, +4% YoY).
- For 2026, LHG is expected to enhance its asset utilization efficiency in 2026 through key catalysts: (1) The availability of contiguous land plots at Long Hau 03 IP (LH03) for handovers from 2026 onwards; and (2) In the RBF segment, the company will commence operations of the high-rise factory at LH1 IP (leasable area of 26,000 m²) and expand an additional 46,000 m² of factory space at Lot 3A in LH3 IP. These initiatives are projected to bring the total RBF portfolio to 22 hectares (+27% YoY), providing significant potential for operating cash flow growth from 2026 onwards.
PNJ – Closing the year of outperfomance, posting all-time high NPAT and margin
23-01-2026
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: PNJ
- 4Q2025 revenue reached VND 9,632 bn (+12.1% YoY), with the core retail segment contributing 79.9%. For FY2025, PNJ recorded revenue of VND 34,976bn (-7.5% YoY), completing 110.7% of the company’s plan (3.6% below our forecast).
- 4Q2025 gross profit came in at VND 2,419 bn (+35.1% YoY), with GPM expanding to 25.1% (+4.3 pps YoY). For FY2025, gross profit totaled VND 7,708 bn (+15.5% YoY) with a GPM of 22.0% (+4.4 pps YoY). 4Q2025 NPAT-MI reached VND 1,219 bn (+66% YoY), with a NPAT-MI margin of 12.5% (+4.1 pps YoY), cummulative 2025 NPAT-MI amounted to VND 2,834 bn (+34% YoY), with NPAT-MI margin of 8.1% (+2.5 pps YoY), driven by:
- A strong shift in revenue structure toward jewelry retail from gold trading: Retail revenue grew 25.7% YoY, lifting its contribution to ~80%. In contrast, 24K gold trading revenue declined due to limited gold supply, as PNJ prioritized resources for the retail segment, particularly higher-margin gold jewelry products.
- Margin expansion across segments: We estimate gold jewelry GPM exceeded 30% (+2 pps YoY), while gold trading GPM also improved slightly by 1.0–1.5 pps YoY, supported by wider buy-sell spreads during certain periods, alongside stable operating cost control.
- 2026 outlook remains positive as several operational constraints are gradually being resolved. With more favorable input and output conditions compared to 2025, PNJ’s BOD is confident in maintaining a high GPM of 21-24%.
Real Estate Industry 2026 – Rebalancing after a period of misphased growth
22-01-2026
: KDH, NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Real estate
- The residential real estate market is expected to enter a rebalancing phase from 2026, when legal bottlenecks are gradually removed and the project implementation environment gradually improves. The new supply is expected to be more evenly differentiated for the affordable – mid-end segments, with a clear shift to satellite areas around HCMC such as Binh Duong, Long An, Dong Nai and Ba Ria – Vung Tau.
- On the demand side, market dynamics in the coming period are forecast to shift markedly from the factor of "interest rate incentives" to "real affordability" of buyers. In the context of the interest rate level in 2026 is forecast to increase.
- In terms of price, especially in Ho Chi Minh City. We expect to be more stable and sustainable when the presence of the affordable – mid-end segment is expected to contribute to pulling the price level to an appropriate level.
VPB – Q4-2025 Business Results Update: Profit Growth Exceeds Expectations with Stable Asset Quality
21-01-2026
: VPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- VPB announced its 4Q25 business results with consolidated profit before tax (PBT) reaching VND 10.2 trillion (+12% QoQ and +66% YoY), exceeding our forecast (VND 8.8 trillion) by 17%. This outperformance was driven by a significant surge in other income (primarily from recoveries of previously written-off bad debts) in 4Q24, amounting to over VND 3 trillion (+31% YoY), alongside service revenue that was 73% stronger than anticipated, while credit costs aligned with expectations.
- Full-year 2025 consolidated PBT totaled VND 30.6 trillion (+53% YoY), surpassing our projection by 8%. This included PBT from the parent bank at VND 26.4 trillion (+44% YoY), VPX (including other comprehensive income) at over VND 4.7 trillion (nearly four times YoY), and FE Credit's PBT (pre-internal adjustments) at over VND 600 billion (+19% YoY).
- VPB's 4Q24 results exceeded expectations and demonstrated the bank's effective leverage of its competitive advantages, such as a high credit growth quota, a diverse financial services ecosystem (encompassing insurance, securities, and consumer finance), and synergies with favorable business and capital market conditions to deliver strong PBT growth. We also commend the improvement in profitability trend at VPB, coupled with stable asset quality control in 4Q24, alongside positive outcomes from bad debt recovery efforts following the legalization of Resolution 42's supportive legal framework. These factors are anticipated to recur in 2026. Accordingly, our current 2026 forecasts and target price (VND 33,300 per share) present upside potential for upward revision.
Forecast VN30 Index reconstitution outcome – Q1/2026 review
20-01-2026
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- VN30 rebalancing timeline: Under HOSE’s periodic review schedule, the VN30 outcome will be announced on 21 Jan 2026 and effective from 02 Feb 2026. Rong Viet Securities’ base case expects VPL to be added and BCM to be removed.
- Estimated trading flows (by volume) – Rong Viet: The top expected net buys are ACB (+3.3m shares), HPG (+3.0m shares) and TCB (+2.3m shares).
PVC Resin Price Outlook 2026 – No Longer at Low Levels Due to China’s New Policy
19-01-2026
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
:
Tags: Plastic
- In 2026, China will officially tighten its export support policy by abolishing the 13% VAT rebate on PVC resin (effective from April 2026). This move comes as the country’s plastics industry faces significant oversupply pressure (a surplus of more than 364 thousand tons in 2025) and persistently negative profit margins at factories. Cutting subsidies is seen as a step to mitigate the risk of retaliatory tariffs and to weed out inefficient domestic producers.
- We expect regional PVC prices to establish a new base around USD 700/ton (+10% YoY) from Q2/2026, as producers pass on the increased tax cost (approximately USD 75/ton) into selling prices. Despite higher input costs, profit margins of large plastic pipe companies (BMP, NTP) are still expected to expand by 1–2%, thanks to expectations of increased inventories of low-priced goods in Q1—when Chinese factories ramp up exports ahead of the new regulation’s effective date.
Aviation - Asia remains the primary growth engine for passenger revenue
16-01-2026
: ACV
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- • In 2026, global passenger traffic is forecast to increase by 4.9% YoY, reflecting a modest improvement in global GDP growth. Over the 2024–2026 period, RPK growth is expected to converge more closely with GDP growth, at approximately 1.5x.
• Aircraft delivery delays will continue to leave airlines facing fleet shortages in 2026, constraining seat capacity. As a result, load factors (LF) are expected to remain elevated at around 83.8%, edging up slightly YoY.
• Asia–Pacific remains the leading region, supported by strong economic momentum in China, India, and South Korea. Air travel demand is increasingly driven by Asia, underpinning regional and global passenger growth.
