03-12-2025VNINDEX1739.1722.111.29% HNXIndex259.70.830.32% UPCOM120.360.660.55% VN301979.5529.431.51% VN1001874.7727.371.48% HNX30569.332.540.45% VNXALL2931.8140.451.40% VNX503255.3748.971.53% VNMID2304.9919.030.83% VNSML1517.5810.040.67% HPA – IPO Roadshow – Attractive investment opportunities
02-12-2025
: VDS
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In January 2026, HPA plans to list on the HOSE with an offering price of 41,900 VND/share with a total offering of 30 million shares. The offering price is equivalent to the P/E forward 2025 after issuance at 8.0x at NPAT-MI of VND 1,500 billion. In addition, the company maintains its commitment to maintain a minimum cash dividend of 3,000 VND/share/year, equivalent to a dividend yield of about 7-8%.
- The company expects profit after tax to increase from VND 1,500 billion (2025) to VND 1,750 billion (2030) based on expanding pig capacity to 900,000 pig/year, feed to 1,000,000 tons/year and cows to 73,000 cows/year.
- Compared to small businesses, HPA has the advantage of feed autonomy, closed processes, and imported breeds. However, compared to major competitors in the industry such as C.P, BAF or DBC, we found that HPA does not have too many competitive advantages in terms of breeds and technology. Instead, the business has taken advantage of the shortage of breeding pigs due to the epidemic to increase the ratio of breeding pigs to total commercial pigs to help the business maintain a high gross margin when the total commercial pigs of the enterprise is lower than that of major competitors.
- The ratio of commercial breeding pigs/total commercial pig herd will increase from 19% in 2023 to 40% in 9 months of 2025 compared to this rate of DBC of about 6.9% in 2025 and BAF of about 13% in 2023 due to the higher number of commercial pigs of BAF and DBC.
- In the long term, the expansion of the farming area will lead to a gradual decrease in gross margin when the cost of the farming area is high (3 times higher than in the past) as well as the ratio of breeding pigs/commercial pigs gradually decreases. Therefore, we expect gross margin to gradually decrease in the long term and approach that of leading enterprises, but EBIT still grows thanks to output.
- HPA's investment risks are mainly focused on the decline in the price of live hogs in the whole industry and the increase in feed costs due to the increase in soybean prices. In addition, the gradual decrease of small households will affect the sale of breeding pigs of enterprises. However, we realize that HPA will have the right strategies to develop, for example, encroaching into the Food segment if the sale of breeding pigs is no longer favorable.
Banking Sector Q4-2025 Outlook: Sustaining Positive Growth Momentum Despite Persistent Liquidity Pressure and Elevated Funding Costs
01-12-2025
: BID, CTG, VCB, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- We forecast credit growth for our coverage universe of banks to reach 18.2% YoY in 2025, amid the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV)’s stringent control over the allocation of new credit growth quotas.
- Interest rates and NIM: A rise in funding costs is expected to support a modest NIM expansion of approximately 10 bps QoQ, supported by tighter credit supply conditions in Q4-2025.
- Non-performing loan (NPL) ratio: Anticipated to decline by 10–20 bps in the final quarter of 2025; however, provision expenses are projected to remain stable as banks continue to strengthen their provision buffers.
- Q4-2025 PBT for the coverage portfolio is forecasted to grow 15% YoY, resulting in full-year 2025F PBT growth of 15% YoY — in line with expectations set at the beginning of the year.
Impact of the ENSO Cycle on Vietnam’s Power System Operations in 2026
28-11-2025
: REE, VSH, GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The ENSO cycle is a natural climatic phenomenon lasting 2–7 years, comprising three main phases: El Niño (warming), La Niña (cooling), and Neutral.
- During the El Niño phase, Vietnam typically experiences hotter and drier conditions, with reduced rainfall and fewer storms. In contrast, the La Niña phase usually brings higher rainfall, accompanied by storms and flooding.
- According to the latest forecast, in 1H2026, the ENSO cycle is likely in a Neutral phase. Under this scenario, hydropower generation efficiency may decline, while thermal power plants (gas and coal) are expected to be dispatched at higher levels to maintain a stable electricity supply.
PNJ – 3Q2025: Beating expectations and turning to growth, results improve in the second half
27-11-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: PNJ
- 3Q2025 Revenue: Reached VND 8,136 bn (+14.1% YoY, +7.3% QoQ), primarily driven by an 88.3% YoY surge in gold-related revenue from a low base, as gold-buying demand strengthened amid continuously rising gold prices. This trend led to a significant shift of consumer cash flow toward gold rather than jewelry.
- 3Q2025 NPAT-MI: Recorded VND 496 bn (+129.8% YoY, +12.5% QoQ), marking PNJ’s highest 3Q net margin. This was supported by: (1) Price increasing to reflect gold price rising while maintaining a low COGS thanks to the favorable prices achieved when recycling liquidated jewelryand previously procured gold raw materials; (2) Tighter operating cost control at the store level with SG&A/sales ratio declining in Q3 after strong expense during Q1-Q2/2025.
- Outlook for 4Q2025: We expect PNJ’s 4Q2025 results to improve further YoY, supported by a stronger recovery in the jewelry sector as Q4 coincides with festive and celebratory occasions that stimulate demand for both women’s and men’s jewelry. Additionally, jewelry spending has been rebounding among high-income customers after a slowdown in late 2024 and is expected to remain strong throughout Q4.
- Update on Decree 232/2025/ND-CP: PNJ has submitted all required documents for approval. The SBV has received the preliminary data and is currently reviewing and assessing. In addition to the company’s production capability, the quota will also depend on foreign-exchange supply-demand conditions, macroeconomic factors, and SBV’s policy stance. Although PNJ has not yet received specific information on the quota, the company has fully prepared the necessary resources.
Vietnam’s Bauxite – Alumina – Aluminium Value Chain
26-11-2025
: DGC
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Aluminium
- Upstream supply is abundant in terms of resource reserves (Vietnam’s bauxite reserves are the third largest in the world), but mining and processing capacity remains limited.
- Vietnam is currently positioned only at the alumina production stage (Alumina – Al₂O₃), concentrated in the two plants Tân Rai and Nhân Cơ with a total capacity of around 1.3 million tons per year. The technology for primary aluminum smelting (Aluminium – Al) has not yet been commercially deployed, although several major corporations have announced investment plans for multi-billion-USD aluminum complexes.
- On the output side, domestic alumina production basically meets internal demand, but Vietnam faces a large shortage of primary aluminum and semi-finished aluminum products, relying heavily on imports to supply downstream fabrication and related industries.
Overview of the cotton market
25-11-2025
: ADS
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- Cotton fibre and cotton yarn are positioned at the upstream segment of the textile supply chain, serving as the fundamental inputs for final textile products. Currently, the market is in a slow-growth phase, driven by stable supply conditions and the absence of a meaningful demand surge. Nevertheless, cotton fibre and cotton yarn continue to hold a strategic position as essential raw materials that determine the quality and value of textile outputs.
HPG – Dung Quat 02 becomes the Locomotive
24-11-2025
: HPG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In Q3/2025, HPG posted revenue of VND 36.4 trillion (-2% YoY, -17% QoQ). Construction steel volume declined sequentially due to seasonal heavy rainfall and storms, particularly in northern Vietnam, yet remained at an elevated absolute level, confirming relatively resilient domestic demand. Most notably, HRC sales reached one of the highest quarterly figures in recent years, confirming full commercial sales from the Dung Quat 2 facility across both phases, with utilization expected to remain solid in the coming quarters.
- For Q4/2025, we anticipate a recovery in domestic demand that will support construction steel volumes, driven by accelerating construction activity backed by improving real estate sentiment and ongoing public investment disbursement. More importantly, we expect a sharp rise in HRC sales to 1.65 million tonnes (+38% QoQ), underpinned by the complete operational ramp-up of Dung Quat 2 (with October’s estimated HRC volume of 560,000 tonnes, +18% MoM).
Shrimp industry in 10M2025 and a positive perspective on FMC
21-11-2025
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Shrimp export value in October 2025 grew positively by 22% YoY due to a 14% YoY improvement in selling prices, reaching 10.85 USD/kg while consumption volume grew lower at 7.32%. Shrimp export value grew strongly thanks to whiteleg shrimp increasing by 20.18% YoY while tiger prawn only increased slightly by 1.35% YoY.
- The export value of whiteleg shrimp in October 2025 increased sharply thanks to the US market increasing by 45% YoY while Japan declined slightly by 4% YoY. Consumption volume growth in the US/China/EU market was 19.2%/5.99%/9.53% respectively while Japan decreased by 11.97% YoY. Selling prices in the US/China/Japan/EU in October 2025 all recorded growth of 22%/12%/8%/3.2%, respectively.
- Accumulated in 10M2025, shrimp export value reached 3.77 billion USD (+19.57% YoY), of which whiteleg prawn only increased by 8.75% YoY and tiger prawn increased by 0.46% YoY. Whiteleg shrimp consumption reached 277.74 thousand tons (+0.72% YoY) and tiger prawn production reached 32.17 thousand tons (-1.75% YoY).
- FMC's Q3/2025 revenue reached VND 2,983 billion (+5% YoY) and NPAT-MI reached VND 97 billion (+22% YoY). Revenue grew thanks to a 16% YoY increase in selling prices, reaching 364 thousand VND/kg while consumption volume decreased by 9% YoY, reaching 8,102 tons.
- The selling price increased mainly due to the impact of countervailing taxes in the US when FMC paid the buyer due to the selling price through the US under the Incoterm DAP (delivery to the buyer).
- Consumption volume decreased because businesses promoted the export of VAT shrimp (breaded shrimp, fried shrimp) instead of ordinary shrimp (fresh shrimp, stretched shrimp) when it was difficult for businesses to compete in the regular shrimp segment in the US and VAT shrimp was not subject to anti-dumping duties. The consumption of VAT shrimp is less than that of ordinary shrimp in the US, so the consumption volume decreases.
- FMC's export revenue in October 2025 continued to grow by 14% YoY, reaching 26 million USD with shrimp exports reaching 2,153 tons (+5% YoY) thanks to the US market. The US market improved sharply in October 2025 thanks to Vietnam's promotion of exports before the 19th anti-dumping duties (POR19) have final results. In addition, Indonesia, the main competitor in breaded shrimp products, has temporarily suspended exports to the US due to radioactive Cesium-137 (Cs-137).
- FMC's export market in 2026 will have a shift from the US to the EU and Japan while waiting for information on preliminary anti-dumping duties in March 2026 and final tariffs in September 2026. The long-term outlook of the business focuses on improving shrimp hatcheries as well as increasing self-farming shrimp production to help improve gross margins.
NVL – The return journey of the "giant" of the Real Estate industry
20-11-2025
: NVL
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NVL
- Accumulated in 10M2025, NVL recorded revenue of VND 5,292 billion (+22% YoY), mainly from the handover of projects: NovaWorld Phan Thiet, Aqua City, NovaWorld Ho Tram and projects in Ho Chi Minh City.
- In the period of 2025-2028, NVL is expected to experience a revenue drop point in 2027 and 2028, with total products handed over of 17,956 units and 8,557 units, respectively. Revenue from key projects such as Aqua City and NovaWorld Ho Tram will make a strong contribution, reaching VND 226,461 billion in 2027 and VND 117,556 billion in 2028.
PC1 –Earnings Results Q3/2025: EPC segment leads the recovery
19-11-2025
: PC1
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2025, revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT–MI) of PC1 increased 47% and 89% YoY, equivalent to +52% / +200% vs. analyst forecasts, and completed 60% / 84% of the Company’s full-year plan.
- Revenue from the EPC segment (power construction and industrial zone infrastructure) increased 146% YoY, supported by a strong project backlog. The segment’s gross margin expanded by 5 pptss YoY, contributing to the Company’s overall gross margin of 21% (-1% YoY).
- Power generation output increased 4% YoY, supporting a 7% YoY increase in electricity revenue, driven by extended La-Niña phase that improved rainfall and wind speeds at power plants.
- Nickel ore concentrate revenue declined 21% YoY, though gross profit increased 20% YoY as operations stabilized. However, lower selling prices may reduce full-year revenue for this segment.
VNM – Gradually revealing positive momentum
18-11-2025
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: VNM
- In Q3-2025, VNM posted net revenue of VND 16,953 bn (+1.4% QoQ, +9.1% YoY), with NPAT-MI of VND 2,527 bn (+2.1% QoQ, +5.1% YoY) — beating our projection by 4%, driven by a sharp acceleration in exports. The key narratives from Q2 remained intact: post-restructuring stability in the domestic GT channel and continued tailwind from depressed raw milk powder prices.
- We retain our 2025 forecasts with NPAT-MI at VND 8,824 bn (-6.1% YoY) and a target price of VND 66,100, combined to an attractive 6.1% dividend yield, we recommend ACCUMULATE for VNM.
SAB 3Q25 Results: Improved NPAT driven by lower materials costs and post-M&A cost allocation
17-11-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Anh Tran
Tags: SAB Result updates
- Net revenue in Q3-2025 reached VND 6,437 billion (-16.1% YoY) due to SAB's proactive reduction in output for the sell-in channel (sales to distributors) while consumption through the sell-out channel (distributors to consumers) continued to grow. Overall, beer consumption has not yet recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels.
- NPAT-MI reached VND 1,361 billion (+21.6% YoY) with an NPAT-MI margin of 21.6% (+6.4 pps YoY, +3.2 pps QoQ) thanks to lower raw materials costs YoY (main driver), along with the reversal of significant financial expenses related to the SBB M&A deal.
- Based on our observations, beer consumption in 2025 remains weak. However, SAB benefited from lower material costs and post M&A adjustments, which made its performance more positive than our previously conservative forecast. Our 12-month target price is VND 50,000/share. With a cash dividend of VND 5,000/share over thr next year, SAB is suitable for investors who prefer dividend investment strategy, offering a 10% dividend yield.
02-12-2025
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