Vietnam bond market report Sep 2025 - Primary market remains subdued
07-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: Bond
- Primary G-bond market lost momentum amid less favorable conditions, with awarded amount at VND 16.975 bn, up marginally vs. August but still low relative to early-year levels. Cumulative 9M/2025 government bond fundraising reached VND 255.689 tn (51.1% of the annual plan); in Q3 alone, issuance totaled VND 54.3 tn (45.2% of the quarterly plan).
- The tendered/offered ratio printed 48.8% and the awarded/offered ratio 31.4%, still at the lower band despite session-by-session improvement; notably, the State Treasury (VST) offered only VND 54 tn vs. the VND 81 tn plan, signaling cost-of-funds discipline taking precedence over issuance progress.
- Maturity structure remained anchored at 10Y, which accounted for 92.7% of September’s awarded volume; the 10Y line’s own issuance progress reached 93.5% in September.
- On the G-bond secondary market, liquidity softened slightly with total turnover at VND 335 tn (outright VND 240.6 tn – 71.7%, repo VND 94.8 tn); average daily trading fell to VND 12 tn (-15% MoM).
- Corporate bond (CB) primary cooled in line with seasonality to VND 26.205 tn (-48.3% MoM; -52.2% YoY) across 28 deals; 9M issuance still printed VND 353.563 tn (+24.4% YoY). Banks continued to lead but slipped 41% MoM; notable prints: MBB VND 6.000 tn, 3Y, 5.6–5.85%/yr; ACB VND 6.000 tn, 2Y, 5.85%/yr; in real estate, Truong Minh VND 5.000 tn, 1Y, 8.95%/yr.
- Early redemptions were subdued at VND 16.209 tn (-26.3% YoY), driven mainly by banks (-49% MoM).
- The October maturity wall eases to VND 17 tn, reducing near-term refinancing needs and offering issuers a breather. That said, property credit risk remains prominent: 14 issuers (mostly real-estate names) recorded missed principal/interest payments in the month, including large lots at R&H (VND 5.000 tn), S-Home (VND 2.400 tn), Nova (VND 4.300 tn), and BNP Global (VND 2.100 tn).
- CB secondary turned lively again; building on August’s YTD peak of VND 150.7 tn (+38% MoM), September average daily turnover surged to VND 7.538 tn (+45% MoM).
Overview of Vietnam’s Petroleum sector and update on the New legal framework – 7th draft of the Petroleum Business Decree
06-10-2025
: PLX, OIL
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- We believe that Vietnam’s petroleum sector is entering a major restructuring phase, focusing on shifting from a regulated pricing system to a controlled market-based mechanism. From the 3rd to the 7th draft of the new Petroleum Business Decree, the Government has gradually granted enterprises greater pricing autonomy, standardized cost components, and tightened requirements for major distributors. These changes aim to build a more transparent, competitive, and efficient market.
- Compared to the current decree, the 7th draft introduces two key improvements:
- Pricing mechanism: The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) proposes that major distributors and wholesalers to set their own costs and decide wholesale and retail prices, reporting them only to the relevant authorities. The Government will intervene only in cases of abnormal market fluctuations, in line with the 2023 Price Law. Unlike the current decree, which fixes profit margins at VND300/liter and does not regulate input costs, the 7th draft allows companies to determine actual costs and profits. The Government will only publish a reference operating cost as a guideline, to be adjusted annually based on CPI and reviewed periodically.
- Wholesale licensing conditions: The 7th draft also tightens licensing conditions, requiring each major distributor to own at least one dedicated storage terminal and a minimum of 40 directly operated retail stations. This will raise the standard for financial capacity and infrastructure, strengthen supply chains, and increase barriers to entry. In addition, any sale of shares to foreign investors must be approved by the MoIT to ensure proper oversight of foreign capital and protect the domestic market.
- Overall, we expect the gradual transition to market-based pricing to drive sustainable earnings growth for leading listed players such as PLX, OIL, BSR, and GAS, while accelerating industry restructuring, filtering out weaker companies, and improving overall efficiency in the sector.
ACV – Core business operations improved but profit declined due to FX impact
03-10-2025
: ACV
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation ACV
- In Q2-FY25, ACV’s revenue maintained double-digit growth, reaching VND 5,563 billion (+14% YoY), driven by continued strong growth in both international and domestic passenger volumes. International passenger traffic reached 11 million (+12% YoY), while domestic passenger traffic reached 19 million (+12% YoY).
- Financial activities recorded an unrealized FX loss of VND 708 billion (compared with a gain of VND 435 billion in the SPLY). The JPY appreciated by approximately 8% QoQ, which was the primary factor behind ACV’s sharp decline in NPATMI, which stood at VND 2,232 billion (-23% YoY).
- We maintain our full-year 2025 forecast, with ACV’s international passenger volume projected at 45.5 million (+9% YoY) and domestic passenger volume at 72 million (+5% YoY). Passenger growth momentum will continue to support earnings, with revenue projected at VND 21,100 billion (+7% YoY) and NPAT at VND 10,300 billion (+13% YoY). Our target price for ACV is set at VND 60,800 per share, implying a potential return of 9% against the closing price as of October 2, 2025. We reiterate our ACCUMULATE rating.
DPR – Positive profit outlook in Q3/2025
02-10-2025
: DPR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: DPR Rubber
- Accumulated in 8M2025, DPR's total rubber production reached 8,339 tons (+38% YoY), thanks to stable mining output and doubling of procurement over the same period.
- The company made a positive product restructuring, with the proportion of SVR 3L, 5 and Centrifugal rubber lines increasing sharply, while SVR 10 and 20 decreased, helping DPR maintain the average selling price of 8M2025 over VND 50 million/ton.
- We expect Q3/2025 business results to be positive, with revenue estimated at VND 328 billion (+63% QoQ, -6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 93 billion (+111% YoY), thanks to the main contribution from the rubber segment and support from tree liquidation, with gross profit margin remaining at 39%.
DPM – Business performance Q3/2025 expect to grew strongly thanks to high selling prices
01-10-2025
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue in Q2/2025 reached VND 5,301 billion (+34% YoY), driven by strong growth in NPK and other segments while Urea segment experienced lower growth. Gross margin in Q2/2025 reached 17% compared to 13.8% in the same period thanks to the Urea segment when the selling price of Urea increased sharply by 15% YoY and input gas prices decreased by 6% YoY. Net margin reached 7.6% compared to 5.8% in the same period, due to the higher gross margin and lower growth rate of selling expenses than revenue. Since then, NPAT-MI in Q2/2025 reached VND 403 billion (+75% YoY).
- Business performance in Q3/2025 and the second half of 2025 is expected to be positive as the high selling price is expected to remain at a high base level due to the impact of VAT and exchange rate increases, and the selling price of agricultural products such as coffee and rice is still anchored at a high level over the same period. Consumption volume in Q3/2025 is expected to grow by 39% in the NPK segment while the Urea segment is equivalent to the same period over the same period.
- Gross margin in Q3/2025 is expected to reach 19% from 11.7% in the same period, due to a 26% YoY increase in selling prices while input gas prices are estimated to decrease by 10% YoY. However, selling expenses are expected to grow by 30% YoY as businesses promote new sales policies offering attractive discounts. Since then, revenue and NPAT-MI in Q3/2025 are estimated at VND 4,462 billion (+45% YoY) and VND 362 billion (+475% YoY), respectively. Revenue in 2025 is expected to reach VND 17,757 billion (+31% YoY) and NPAT-MI is estimated at VND 1,230 billion (+125% YoY).
HDB – Robust growth based on the potential for credit expansion
30-09-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Consolidated PBT in Q2/2025 reached VND 4.7 trillion (+14% YoY), completing 47% of the full-year target. HDB’s consolidated profit this quarter grew at a moderate pace, although total operating income increased strongly by 40% YoY, as the bank significantly raised provisioning, up nearly 270% YoY.
- We revise our 2025F consolidated PBT forecast to over VND 20.3 trillion, up 22% YoY, with key assumption changes including (1) credit growth rising to 25.9%, (2) NIM adjusted down by 10bps to 4.7%, (3) non-interest income expanding 33% versus the previous forecast, and (4) credit cost increasing 56% amid asset quality risks.
DIG – Preparing for the new cycle
29-09-2025
: DIG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: RE
- DIG recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 1.8 trillion (+111% YoY) and VND 467 billion (+197% YoY), respectively, primarily driven by the transfer of the Lam Ha Center Point project (formerly Ha Nam) in Q3. Regarding the business outlook for Q4 2025, the company is processing local procedures to enable the transfer of 30 hectares at the Dai Phuoc Eco-Tourism Urban Area project (Dong Nai).
- In 2026, the company will focus on completing land clearance for large-scale projects, including the Long Tan Eco-Tourism Urban Area (332 ha, Dong Nai), Northern Vung Tau Urban Area (91 ha, former Vung Tau), Phu My Residential Area (33 ha, former Vung Tau). By the end of 2025, the company’s cash balance is expected to reach approximately VND 5,000 billion, facilitating its investment plans.
Proactively vaccinated: Private services close the gaps of expanded program on immunization (EPI)
26-09-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: Vaccination FRT
- Since 1974, vaccination has prevented 154 million deaths, including 146 million in children under 5, and 101 million of them in infants. Despite being devastating, COVID-19 marked a turning point of the vaccine industry, boosting public awareness of the importance of disease prevention and the lifesaving role of vaccines.
- Vietnam joined WHO’s EPI in 1981 and rolled it out nationwide in 1985. As a result, vaccination coverage for children under one year old in Vietnam has consistently exceeded 90%. However, this rate remains lower than in some countries (Malaysia 94%, Singapore 97%, Korea 97%, US 93%). Adult vaccination coverage reached only 1% by 2022, compared with 34% in Thailand and 66% in Singapore (KPMG). Coverage for high-value vaccines such as HPV, pneumococcal, shingles, and seasonal influenza remains below 5% (B&Company); HPV among adolescent girls is 12% (lower than 80% in Malaysia).
- Limitations of curative care became evident during pandamic: Hospitals were overwhelmed, with shortages of beds, medical staff, and pharmaceuticals. This proved the important role of preventive medicine. However, investment rate of preventive medicine/curative medicine is currently 15/85, which created a significant imbalance, despite the fact that every 1 unit of budget allocated to preventive medicine can have an impact equivalent to 10 units spent on curation medicine.
- The private vaccination market has been rapidly expanding, driven by rising awareness and proactive demand for prevention, as unmet needs beyond the EPI. Two main factors underpin this: (1) Limited coverage outside the child population and low uptake among adults; (2) Rising demand for premium services from the urban and middle class.
Monetary market Update Sep 2025: Balance in the short term
25-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV continued to manage liquidity through collateralized lending in September, with the main trend during the month being issuance to rebalance maturing loans. The outstanding balance of the reverse repo operation fell by 29% compared to the end of August but remained at a high level.
- Alongside the reduction in lending through the SBV’s collateralized channel, interbank market interest rates also declined over the past month.
- Following the Fed’s 25-basis-point policy rate cut at its September 17 meeting, the average overnight USD lending rate also fell. The interest rate differential between USD and VND has become almost negligible.
- In the first half of 2025, credit flows have yet to show any new drivers of growth, with credit growth momentum still coming from: 1. Supporting industries/high-tech enterprises; 2. Trade & transportation; and 3. Securities & Real Estate.
- Regarding targeted credit packages, except for the agricultural and rural lending program, which has been fully disbursed and had its limit raised to VND185 trillion, programs for social housing or infrastructure/digital technology have seen relatively low disbursement rates.
- The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25% at its September 2025 meeting. However, the meeting’s results brought new expectations of further rate cuts in the near future. The market currently anticipates two more Fed rate cuts at the October and December meetings.
- Last month, the SBV intervened to guide the exchange rate, with commercial banks registering for about USD1.5 billion in non-cancellable forward FX purchases. Along with the decline of the USD, depreciation pressure on the VND also eased from mid-September.
NKG – Efforts in the domestic market
24-09-2025
: NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- In Q2/2025, NKG posted revenue of VND 3,808 billion (-33% YoY, -7% QoQ), with galvanized steel output at 202 thousand tons (-16% YoY, -2% QoQ), mainly pressured by weakness in the export market, which typically contributes around 70% of its annual sales volume. NKG’s market share of galvanized steel currently stands at 16% (ranking behind HSG and GDA). For 1H/2025, cumulative output reached 407 thousand tons (-13% YoY), declining despite the domestic market delivering strong growth of +95% YoY.
- Gross profit reached VND 270 billion (-47% YoY, +3% QoQ), corresponding to a gross profit margin of 7.1%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter (6.4%), despite little fluctuation in the selling price of corrugated iron and HRC. The improvement of gross profit margin without adjusting the inventory forecast is a positive signal, showing that the Company still has room to expand the gross margin in the last 2 quarters of the year, especially since the price of HRC in Vietnam has had upward adjustments in the period of August and early September.
U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework - A new transmission channel carrying the usd to the world
23-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Policy pivot: rather than hoarding gold like many central banks, the U.S. is building a digital USD “pipeline” via a triad of bills advanced during Crypto Week (July 14–18, 2025)
- Regulatory pillar: the GENIUS Act limits payment-stablecoin issuance to licensed institutions; after a transition of up to three years, U.S. platforms may support only compliant stablecoins
- USD demand via stablecoins: over 99% of stablecoins are USD-pegged; net outflows from North America were about USD 54bn in 2024, signaling offshore USD demand. Remittances via stablecoins are near-instant with lower fees versus the ~6.5% average in traditional cross-border rails
- Market sizing 2028–2030: (1) Base case: market cap USD 1.0–1.2tn by 2028, USD 1.6tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 600–800bn; (2) Bull case: USD 2.0tn by end-2028, USD 3.7tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 1.0–1.85tn; (3) Cautious case: USD 500–750bn in the next few years; UST holdings USD 250–350bn.
DGW – Accelerating growth in “nascent” segments – Office Equipment & Home Appliance – is essential
23-09-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: DGW
- DGW’s Q2-2025 results met our expectation with net revenue of VND 5,713 bn (+14.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 116 bn (+30.0% YoY), driven by the reversal of Q1 financial expenses and strong growth in Laptops & Tablets, particularly Office Equipment (+87.9% YoY) and Home Appliances (+108.4% YoY).
- For 2025, DGW trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x, above its 5-year average (12.8x) and industry average (11-12x). We believe expectations for 2025 revenue and net profit recovery are fully priced into the stock.
- In 2026-30, DGW must accelerate development of Office Equipment & Home Appliance while stemming the decline in Mobile Phone distribution market share to anchor stronger business performance, leading to higher valuation/profit opportunities.
07-10-2025
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