Công ty Cổ phần Chứng khoán Rồng Việt

VHC – US Market Drives Strong Q1/2026 Recovery

22-05-2026

: VHC

: Fishery

: Hien Le

In Q1/2026, net revenue and NPAT-MI grew by 12% YoY and 37.8% YoY, respectively, driven by strong performance in value-added products (+63% YoY). Specifically, revenue from frozen fillet increased 14% YoY, by-products rose 17%, C&G grew 21%, and Sa Giang rose 16% YoY. By market, the US remained the key growth driver with revenue surging 40% YoY, while the EU increased 6% YoY and China declined slightly by 3% YoY.
Gross margin improved to 14.6% (from 12.7% in the same period last year), supported by a 9% YoY increase in average selling prices, which outpaced the 4% YoY rise in raw material costs. The SG&A-to-revenue ratio remained stable at 5%. As a result, the net profit margin expanded to 9% (from 7% YoY).
For the full year 2026, we forecast net revenue of VND 12,507 billion (+4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,526 billion (+8% YoY), implying an EPS of VND 6,798 . We maintain our target price of VND 73,300/share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation on VHC.

Corporate Bond Market: Maturity pressure remains high in an environment of pegged interest rates

22-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

A key highlight this quarter is the rise of non-bank enterprises. This group led the issuance value, contributing 70.4% of the total value (with the real estate sector in the lead). Conversely, the banking sector, traditionally the primary issuer in the market, contributed only 29.6% of the value in Q1/2026.
In the secondary market, the average yield to maturity (YTM) of bonds also recorded corresponding movements, reflecting investors' expectations regarding interest rates and the necessary risk premium amidst liquidity pressure on near-term maturities. Fluctuating interest rates have significantly impacted the corporate bond market, evidenced by increases in both issuance rates and yield to maturity (YTM). In Q1 2026, issuers had to accept higher issuance rates when issuing bonds, reflecting increased capital costs in unfavorable market conditions.
Maturity pressure in the coming quarters is substantial, with $42.2 trillion in Q2/2026 and $73.3 trillion in Q3/2026, concentrated in the real estate sector. This requires issuers to proactively balance cash flows or negotiate with bondholders to address debt obligations in the near future.
The Ministry of Finance has sought feedback on the Draft Decree on private placement of bonds, which will replace Decree 153/2020. In the future, the new policy framework clearly distinguishes between the two issuance methods (public and private), which is expected to promote the public channel as a more primary and sustainable capital mobilization channel. Under this orientation, individual investors are encouraged to participate primarily in the public issuance channel, which has stricter requirements regarding credit ratings and investor protection mechanisms. Meanwhile the private placement channel will continue to be reserved for professional investors under the principle of self-responsibility

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PNJ – 1Q26 results: Flexibility driving growth

21-05-2026

: PNJ

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

PNJ reported 1Q26 revenue of VND 17.245 trillion (+79.0% YoY), exceeding our forecast by 27%, mainly driven by a threefold YoY increase in 24K gold segment revenue. Retail jewelry revenue reached VND 8.191 trillion (+22.5% YoY; contributing 47.5% of total net revenue), broadly in line with our expectations.
Q1 NPAT-MI came in at VND 1.467 trillion (+116.5% YoY, in line with our forecast), translating into a net margin of 8.5% (+1.5 ppts YoY). This strong performance was primarily supported by: (1) gross margin expansion of around 1-2 ppts across both retail jewelry and 24K gold segments from an already high base in the same period last year (based on our estimates), thanks to the sharp rise in gold prices during Q1 while the company had proactively accumulated raw materials since 4Q25 through its “collect-and-exchange” program; and (2) aside from salary and bonus expenses, most selling support costs incurred during the peak season remained broadly flat YoY, while much stronger revenue growth helped SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue decline by 3.1 ppts YoY.
We are considering revising up our 2026 net revenue forecast for PNJ, primarily driven by a higher growth assumption for the 24K gold segment following stronger-than-expected Q1 results in this category. Nevertheless, our NPAT forecast is unlikely to change materially, with preliminary earnings expected to remain at around VND 3,350–3,400 bn (given the very low gross margin of the 24K gold segment), implying forecast EPS of VND 6,500 - 6,600. We maintain our target price at VND 90,400/share (adjusted for the 2-for-1 bonus share issuance, with the record date on April 24, 2026), corresponding to a BUY recommendation with an upside potential of 39% compared to the closing price as of May 21, 2026.

MSN – WinMart Retail & Tungsten: The two key growth stories of 2026

20-05-2026

: MSN

: Retailing

: Hung Nguyen

MSN reported impressive Q1-2026 results with net revenue reaching VND 24,020 bn (+3.3% QoQ, +27.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 1,246 bn (-15.5% QoQ, +274.6% YoY). However, the figures missed our expectation by approximately 35% due to a provisioning expense of around VND 409 bn related to the investment in Trusting Social (in which MSN holds a 25.1% stake). This provision was recorded under its GA expenses (totaling VND 1,369 bn, +61.2% YoY).
Overall, MSN’s share price has remained largely flat since the beginning of the year, trading at a trailing P/E of 23.5x and a forward P/E of 20.2x (based on the Company’s plan through the first half of 2026). This implies that the current valuation appears attractive relative to the strong growth outlook (over 60.0% YoY for 2026-27F according to our current projections).

GDA – Domestic market continues to be a pillar

19-05-2026

: GDA

: Materials

: Thach Lam Do, CFA

In Q1/2026, GDA recorded revenue of 3,589 billion VND (-10% YoY, +6% QoQ), with sales volume of coated steel reaching 189 thousand tons (-4% YoY, +17% QoQ). Although sales volume declined compared to the same period in 2025 (mainly due to a 42% YoY decrease in export volume), the company maintained its position in the domestic market, with volume reaching 143 thousand tons (+22% YoY, +4% QoQ, ranking 2nd in market share).
The company plans to pay a 2025 dividend of 10% in cash (1,000 VND/share, to be paid in 2026) and 10% in stock (100 shares receive 10 new shares). The company continues to maintain its cash dividend policy (1,000 VND/share, with a dividend yield of ~7%), while the stock dividend policy is expected to increase the number of outstanding shares and improve stock liquidity. Additionally, the company is submitting major changes to its Charter for approval— a necessary condition for completing the application for listing on the HOSE.
Currently, GDA's target price is maintained at 21,900 VND/share (upside +59%), and the stock is trading at a P/B of 0.5x—a significant discount relative to the company's assets and position in the domestic market.

Why Banks Cannot Hold Too Many Government Bonds and Market Bottlenecks

18-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Commercial banks (NHTMs) have a high demand for Government Bonds (G-bonds) due to their high liquidity. When the market is not under stress, these bonds can be converted into sources to balance liquidity through repo transactions or the Open Market Operation (OMO). Furthermore, holding G-bonds has minimal impact on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) as they are classified as High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), and they are considered safer than conventional lending.
However, excessive G-bond holdings can lead to four serious imbalances: (1) Liquidity mismatch; (2) Repricing mismatch; (3) Maturity mismatch; (4) Capital mismatch: For banks with thin capital, holding a full portfolio of bonds can prevent the capital from absorbing losses, even if the bonds are not classified as bad debt.
The "Negative Carry" situation (where the cost of maintaining bonds exceeds the investment yield) has eliminated the business incentive for commercial banks. Consequently, they only purchase bonds to ensure regulatory liquidity safety ratios instead of seeking profit through arbitrage. They are also unable to increase their holdings due to exposure to balancing risks. With yields moving sideways around the 4% mark while capital costs remain expensive (with the floor rate being the OMO rate at 4.5%), the Government bond market is currently in a state of deadlock. The market urgently requires more flexible regulatory mechanisms or a strong enough policy “push” to unlock financial resources for the State's key public investment projects.
The difficulties in the domestic market stem not only from internal limitations but also from significant pressure from the global interest rate environment, in which the US market plays a dominant role.

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GMD – Southern port cluster continues to be a growth driver in Q1-FY26

15-05-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

In Q1-FY26, GMD's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,452 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 534 billion (+33% YoY), respectively. Container handling volumes at major port clusters, namely Nam Dinh Vu, Binh Duong & Phuoc Long PIP, and Gemalink, reached 328 thousand TEUs (-8% YoY), 382 thousand TEUs (+12% YoY), and 523 thousand TEUs (+19% YoY), respectively.
For the 2026 forecast, net revenue and NPAT-MI are expected to reach VND 6,341 billion (+7% YoY) and VND 2,234 billion (+27% YoY), respectively. The 2026 EPS is 5,238 VND. Recently, GMD shares have risen positively from 73,700 VND/share to 81,600 VND/share (closing price on 05/13/2026), narrowing the upside potential from 26% in the previous report to 13%. We recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of 90,300 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 2,200 VND/share.

NLG – Impressive presales in 4M2026

14-05-2026

: NLG

: Real Estate

: Giao Nguyen

Q1/2026 business results were supported by the transfer of commercial land for the school project at Waterpoint, which contributed VND 490 billion, helping to compensate for the shortfall of the real estate handover segment. Gross profit margin recorded 30%, corresponding NPAT-MI reached VND 68 billion (-37% YoY).
Presales in 4M2026 were a bright spot, reaching VND 3,507 billion, up 4 times compared to Q1/2025. In particular, the Sol Garden project (Hai Phong) recorded strong absorption when bringing in more than 1,200 billion VND after only 20 days of opening for sale. The business plans for 2026 with a record presales target of VND 23,000 billion (+94% YoY), which will create a huge backlog for the next 2-3 years, while profits in 2026 are expected to be flat due to handover delays.
NLG is a real estate enterprise with the advantages of: 1/ Large-scale clean land fund located in key infrastructure axes, benefiting from the trend of moving people out of the center for real housing needs; 2/ Taking advantage of a diversified range of business segments to boost sales and accumulate a large backlog. We set a target price for NLG stock at VND 37,000/share, which corresponds to a BUY recommendation for long-term investors.

HDB – Positive credit and deposit growth, but NIM narrowed significantly amid pressure from funding costs and rising NPL

13-05-2026

: HDB

: Banking

: Trang To

Q1/26 consolidated PBT reached over VND 6.1 trillion (-7% QoQ, +14% YoY), completing 19% of the full-year target of VND 30.1trillion (+41% YoY). Of which, the parent bank contributed nearly VND 5.7 trillion (-7% QoQ, +13% YoY), equivalent to 93% of consolidated PBT, while HD Saison recorded over VND 400 billion (-9% QoQ, +29% YoY). HDB’s Q1/26 results were highlighted by positive credit growth at the parent bank (+10.1%) and customer deposit growth at the parent bank (+10.8%). However, HDB’s NIM and asset quality weakened under rising interest rate pressure. At the same time, the absence of one-off income compared with 2025 limited the bank’s profit growth.
For 2026, HDB set a challenging PBT target (+41% YoY). The bank expects NIM to narrow by 20–30 bps YoY amid rising deposit rate pressure. However, credit growth target of +37% and non-interest income growth target of +40% YoY are expected to drive total operating income growth.
Our current valuation for HDB is VND 31,200/share, implying a 13% upside from the closing price on 13/5/2026. We will provide a more detailed update on our forecasts and valuation in upcoming reports.

PVC resin price update and BMP's 2026 business outlook

12-05-2026

: BMP, NTP

: Materials

: Duong Tran

As of May 2026, PVC prices in Southeast Asia, China, and Vietnam have corrected by 14-20% from their March peaks. This decline was primarily driven by China following the end of its pre-tax-policy export surge, combined with oversupply pressures and the cost advantage of coal-based PVC, which allowed producers to cut prices competitively.
Despite the current cooling, PVC prices are unlikely to retreat to the historical lows of USD 600/ton. This is due to elevated oil and ethylene costs amid Middle East tensions, while China’s termination of the 13% VAT rebate is expected to further widen the price gap between China and the rest of the region.
We maintain our 2026 average price forecast for Southeast Asian PVC at USD 850 /ton (+20% YoY). Consequently, BMP’s parent company NPAT is estimated to reach VND 1,165 billion (-5% YoY). The updated target price for the stock will be detailed in our upcoming earnings update report.

Analysis of New Liquidity Ratios in the Draft Circular Amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN

11-05-2026

: VCB, BID, CTG, ACB, MBB, TCB, VPB, HDB

: Banking

: Tung Do

On April 29, 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) published a draft circular amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN (TT22), introducing several new provisions and changes to key safety ratios converging toward Basel III standards, specifically: (1) Adding a completely new ratio — the Leverage Ratio; (2) Upgrading three liquidity ratios: (i) the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) replacing the two existing payment capacity ratios (the liquidity reserve ratio and the 30-day payment capacity ratio); (ii) the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) replacing the Short-term Capital for Medium- and Long-term Lending ratio; and (iii) the Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (CDR) replacing the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR).
The draft Circular sets a proposed effective date of January 1, 2028. It does not immediately mandate a 100% minimum threshold for LCR and NSFR; instead, these will be phased in, starting at a minimum of 70% and 90%, respectively, from 2028, gradually rising to 100% in 2031 (LCR) and 2030 (NSFR). Banks that do not meet the 100% minimum for LCR and NSFR by January 1, 2028 must maintain a CDR of no more than 85%. Once the new Circular takes effect, adequately capable banks may register with the SBV to immediately apply LCR and NSFR at 100% in lieu of the old TT22 requirements and will not be obligated to comply with the CDR. Meanwhile, the Leverage Ratio (LEV) — as a supplementary tool to capital adequacy requirements — will not be mandatorily effective from January 1, 2028, but will instead be applied at the Governor's discretion as needed in each period.
We believe that the Draft Circular amending TT22 is not aimed at addressing current liquidity pressures within the banking system, but rather represents a planned upgrade of the liquidity management standards framework, designed to move closer to Basel III.
The new liquidity ratios introduced in this draft are significantly stricter than the existing TT22 requirements, compelling banks to undertake a comprehensive restructuring of their balance sheets. For example, regulations encourage commercial banks to attract retail deposits (which are more stable in nature) over short-term interbank funding on the liability side, and to hold high-quality liquid assets (such as government bonds) while limiting illiquid, riskier assets (such as long-term real estate loans or high-risk corporate bonds) on the asset side. In terms of business impact, these regulations are likely to create structural shifts including rising cost of funds (due to increased competition for stable retail deposits in the primary market) and declining profitability and capital efficiency (due to the requirement to hold a portion of capital in High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), which carry lower yields than commercial lending).

FRT – Q1/2026 Earnings results: Accelerating through the peak season

08-05-2026

: FRT

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

Net revenue reached VND 15,117 billion (+29.5% YoY), with Long Chau contributing 68.1% (VND 10,302 billion), broadly in line with our expectations. Long Chau maintained strong growth of 29.0% YoY, though showing signs of moderating versus previous quarters, reflecting a normalization toward a more sustainable growth base amid tougher comparisons. Meanwhile, FPT Shop recorded VND 4,815 billion in revenue (+30.8% YoY), marking a clear acceleration following its recovery since 2H25.
PBT in Q1 reached VND 472 billion, equivalent to 30.4% of the company’s full-year target and 24.1% of our forecast. NPAT-MI came in at VND 287 billion (+71.1% YoY), exceeding our expectations by 18%, with net margin improving to 1.9% (+0.5 ppts YoY). Long Chau remained the key driver, which sustained a strong net margin of 2.6% (+0.3 ppts YoY), while FPT Shop improved operational efficiency and returned to profitability from a loss in the same period last year, supported by optimized operating costs, with net margin reaching 0.3% (+0.8 ppts YoY).
FRT’s Q1 results were broadly in line with our revenue forecast, while earnings outperformed expectations. However, this does not materially change our full-year 2026 outlook, as the strong Q1 earnings base is expected to offset weaker profitability in Q2, which is typically the low season for Apple smartphone demand. Accordingly, we maintain our 2026 forecast for net revenue of VND 60,253 billion (+18.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI/EPS of VND 1,163 billion (+46.3% YoY) and VND 6,829. We also maintain our target price of VND 185,500/share (2026F/2027F forward P/E of 21.3x/14.8x), implying a BUY recommendation with expected return of 27% based on the closing price as of May 7, 2026.

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VHC – US Market Drives Strong Q1/2026 Recovery

22-05-2026

: VHC

: Fishery

: Hien Le

Tags: VHC

Corporate Bond Market: Maturity pressure remains high in an environment of pegged interest rates

22-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Tags:

PNJ – 1Q26 results: Flexibility driving growth

21-05-2026

: PNJ

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

Tags: PNJ

MSN – WinMart Retail & Tungsten: The two key growth stories of 2026

20-05-2026

: MSN

: Retailing

: Hung Nguyen

Tags: MSN

GDA – Domestic market continues to be a pillar

19-05-2026

: GDA

: Materials

: Thach Lam Do, CFA

Tags:

Why Banks Cannot Hold Too Many Government Bonds and Market Bottlenecks

18-05-2026

: VDS

: Macroeconomics

: Khoa Bùi

Tags:

GMD – Southern port cluster continues to be a growth driver in Q1-FY26

15-05-2026

: GMD

: Seaports

: Quan Cao

Tags: Seaports GMD

NLG – Impressive presales in 4M2026

14-05-2026

: NLG

: Real Estate

: Giao Nguyen

Tags: NLG

HDB – Positive credit and deposit growth, but NIM narrowed significantly amid pressure from funding costs and rising NPL

13-05-2026

: HDB

: Banking

: Trang To

Tags:

PVC resin price update and BMP's 2026 business outlook

12-05-2026

: BMP, NTP

: Materials

: Duong Tran

Tags: Plastic

Analysis of New Liquidity Ratios in the Draft Circular Amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN

11-05-2026

: VCB, BID, CTG, ACB, MBB, TCB, VPB, HDB

: Banking

: Tung Do

Tags:

FRT – Q1/2026 Earnings results: Accelerating through the peak season

08-05-2026

: FRT

: Retailing

: Lan Anh Tran

Tags: FRT

Tags