Forecast changes in the VNDIAMOND for Q2/2025
02-04-2025
02-04-2025: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags:
Changes in the VNDIAMOND Index Constituents: Maintain MWG stock, add CTD stock, place VIB stock on the watchlist for removal, and remove VRE stock.
VN30 Index Constituents Remain Unchanged: Instead, the index will focus on capping sector groups according to GICS Level 1 classification at 40%.
39 Bancassurance in Vietnam: A Journey of Recovery and Long-Term Growth Potential
01-04-2025
: VCB, ACB, VIB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: ACB VCB VIB
- Bancassurance in Vietnam has experienced robust growth since 2014, following Circular 86/2014, which removed barriers for banks to act as insurance agents. Between 2014 and 2022, insurance premium revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%, boosting the contribution of service fee income from 7% to 29%. However, since 2023, negative incidents involving misleading advice and coercive insurance sales have triggered a crisis of confidence in the life insurance market.
- Starting in 2022, regulators tightened oversight of insurance operations with the amended Insurance Business Law (2023), Decree 46/2023, Circular 67/2023, and the revised Law on Credit Institutions (2024). These measures aim to enhance transparency, accountability among insurers and banks distributing products, and, most critically, restore customer trust.
- New life insurance gross writien premium in 3Q24 reached VND 5.9 trillion (+3% YoY), while 4Q24 recorded VND 6.5 trillion (-7% YoY), partly due to a 15% decline in the bancassurance channel after TCB terminated its partnership with Manulife in October 2024. Despite the loss of TCB-Manulife (estimated at 13% market share), 4Q24 revenue rose 10% quarter-over-quarter, signaling early recovery signs. New GWP from bancassurance channel stabilized in the second half of 2024 and grew modestly by 3% YoY in 2M25.
- Vietnam’s insurance penetration remains low, with life insurance at 1.3% of GDP and non-life at 0.7% in 2024, compared to 2.7% and 1.2%, respectively, for emerging Asian economies. This underscores significant growth potential, aligned with economic expansion and rising per capita income. The government targets insurance premium revenue of 3.3%-3.5% of GDP by 2030 and 18% life insurance participation by 2025, implying an annual growth rate of 20-25% through 2030.
GMD - Logistics segment expected to recover in 2025
31-03-2025
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In 2024, GMD's net revenue was VND 4,832 billion (+26% YoY), in which revenue from port operations was VND 4,201 billion (+43% YoY), while logistics will contribute VND 632 billion (-25% YoY), accounting for 87% and 13% of total revenue, respectively. Despite the recovery in import and export demand, the logistics sector remains weak.
- From 2018 to 2024, logistics revenue achieved a CAGR of 7%. COGS remained relatively stable, with a CAGR of 5%, but profit margins fluctuated significantly due to the volatility in time charter (TC) rates.
- For 2025, we forecast logistic revenue to reach VND 750 billion (+18% YoY) and gross margin to increase by 8 pps YoY, reaching 39%, this is based on: GMD's two vessels being renewed with TC rates about 50% higher than the previous contract, transportation/warehouse revenue and COGS maintained the same growth rate as in the period 2018 – 2024.
U.S economic outlook remains resilient amid escalating trade uncertainties
28-03-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Consumer and business confidence have weakened as global trade uncertainties reach new highs
- Recent economic data, however, continues to support a scenario of steady U.S. economic growth
TDC – Businesses have room to growth as the real estate market recovers
27-03-2025
: TDC
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: TDC
- Business results in 2024 recovered with revenue and NPAT-MI reaching VND 1,143 billion (+105% YoY) and VND 416 billion, respectively, offsetting the accumulated loss in the previous year.
- The plan is to shift the revenue structure, focusing on the construction segment in the period of 2025 – 2029, making the most of Becamex’s resources in the context of the real estate market is in the process of recovery.
- We believe that TDC is one of the companies that can be monitored during the recovery period of the real estate market, as the stock is trading at the P/B of ~1.0x, which is low compared to the industry average, while the business owns a large land bank in Binh Duong and still has room for growth in the long term.
Binh Duong – A key growth hub in Southern Vietnam’s economic corridor
26-03-2025
: BWE
: Utilities
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- Binh Duong showed exceptional FDI appeal. The province has consistently ranked among the top 10 provinces in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction. In 2024, registered FDI inflows into Binh Duong reached USD 1.9 billion, securing the 6th position nationwide. As of December 31, 2024, Binh Duong ranked second in total registered FDI (trailing only HCMC) with a cumulative FDI inflow of USD 42.5 billion.
- Binh Duong exhibited strong economic and income growth over the past decade. Binh Duong has recorded impressive economic expansion, with its GRDP growth rate consistently outpacing the national GDP growth rate. The province’s per capita GRDP stands at VND 181.2 million (USD 7,190), the highest in Vietnam.
- Key competitive advantages driving success:
- A strategic location with strong connectivity to neighboring provinces, particularly HCMC.
- Advanced industrial and logistics infrastructure.
- Attractive investment policies and a business-friendly environment.
- With these competitive advantages expected to be further leveraged, we believe Binh Duong will sustain its strong economic growth and remain one of the country’s top FDI destinations.
- However, the planned merger of provinces and communes in 2025 could reshape the competitive landscape for Binh Duong’s economic and social development. We are closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates on any significant developments.
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE MAR 2025: CAUTIOUS MONETARY POLICY EASING
25-03-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- From the beginning of March 2025, the SBV ceased the issuance of SBV bills while maintaining liquidity support through collateralized lending via open market operations (OMO). Notably, the extension of OMO loan terms while keeping interest rates unchanged reflects the readiness to provide liquidity to the system when needed.
- On the interbank market, VND lending rates showed a downward trend toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, deposit interest rates declined broadly since late February 2025, with a common decrease of 10-20 basis points.
- The DXY index dropped significantly in March 2025. Meanwhile, the USD/VND exchange rate continued to rise; however, the depreciation pressure on the dong remained at an acceptable level (0.5-1.0% compared to early 2025).
- The risk of Vietnam facing reciprocal tariffs due to its large trade deficit with the U.S. remains and could increase exchange rate pressure in the short term. The reciprocal tariffs under the Trump 2.0 administration, set to be announced on April 2, are expected to be narrower in scope than initially planned. However, the exact targets and extent of the tariffs remain unclear, and they may be implemented immediately.
- As of March 12, credit growth reached 1.24%, higher than the 0.7% increase in the first two months of 2024. Accordingly, Q1 2025 credit growth is expected to align with the full-year target of 16%.
- Over the past month, the restructuring of weak banks continued to accelerate with Decree 69. Specifically, from May 19, 2025, banks undergoing mandatory transfers—including MBB, VPB, and HDB (excluding VCB)—will see their foreign ownership limit raised to 49%, up from the current 30%.
HSG – Cautious plan for short-term difficulties
24-03-2025
: HSG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- During the General Meeting of Shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year, HSG said that the steel sheet industry (especially the export market) may face difficulties, and at the same time, competitive pressure in the domestic market will also increase. Thereby, the Company sets a relatively cautious business plan due to concerns about fluctuations in raw material prices and risks from the export market.
- The company’s strategy is to develop Hoasen Home, the chain of building and finishing materials stores under Hoa Sen Group, in order to become a large-scale supermarket chain of building materials. We believe this is a suitable strategy for HSG in the current period, but in order to effectively develop the Hoasen Home system, the company needs to pay attention to the following: 1/ The capital required to expand the Hoasen Home chain, 2/ Increasing the contribution rate of commercial products to total revenue – the main factor for the long-term sales growth expectations of the Hoasen Home chain.
Offshore wind power: A new development driver for construction contractors in Vietnam
21-03-2025
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- Offshore wind power is becoming a new global energy trend, with the Asia-Pacific region forecasted to lead the offshore wind power industry, with an estimated capacity of approximately 172 GW by 2030.
- There are many opportunities for PVS to venture into the offshore wind power construction sector as the competition among contractors in the region remains limited, thanks to the proven experience and capabilities from previous offshore wind projects such as Formosa, Greater Changhua 2b & 4, and Fengmiao (Taiwan).
- The project to export offshore wind power to Singapore is expected to open up significant economic prospects, helping Vietnamese enterprises seize development opportunities and gain substantial economic benefits.
HAH - Profits secured by timing of vessel renewal during high time charter rate period
20-03-2025
: HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- During the period of high time charter rates, HAH successfully renewed contracts for HAIAN WEST, EAST, and GAMA, and leased a new vessel, HAIAN ZETA. We revised up our revenue, EBITDA, and NPATMI forecasts to VND 5,065 billion (+39% YoY), VND 2,210 billion, and VND 953 billion (+47% YoY), which are higher by 21%, 20%, and 28%, respectively. The adjustment reflects the addition of a new vessel and 11% higher renegotiated charter rates versus prior assumptions.
- However, we recognize that industry risks are increasing due to uncertainties in 2025, which may impact sustainable long-term growth. Therefore, we adjusted the EV/EBITDA multiple from 6.0x to 5.0x to account for existing risks. We maintain the target price of 58,000 VND per share.
- Global container freight rates face complex challenges that require close monitoring, including: Prolonged overcapacity in the market, Geopolitical instability, Ongoing US-China trade tensions, Risks of congestion at major global ports.
Fisheries industry – Seafood exports in the first 2 months of 2025 are differentiated between shrimp and pangasius industries
19-03-2025
: VHC, ANV, FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The export value of the pangasius industry in 2M2025 recorded a slight decline of 2% YoY, reaching 258 million USD due to a decrease in consumption volume of 6% YoY while the average selling price only grew slightly by 3% YoY. The decline in export volume was mainly due to a 27% decline in the Chinese market while the US and EU markets both grew by 6%. The average selling price in 2M2025 has a strong growth of 8% in the US while in the Chinese and EU markets is equivalent to the same period.
- In terms of businesses, VHC's export value in 2M2025 recorded a decline of 15% YoY due to a significant decrease in export volume of 20% YoY despite the average selling price in 2M2025 having grown by 7% to 3.06 USD (+12% MoM, +14% YoY). Compared to VHC, ANV performed worse when export value decreased by 20% YoY due to a 22% YoY decrease in export volume. However, the gross margin of the entire fish industry is expected to gradually improve month by month thanks to the selling price of pangasius gradually increasing month by month and the price of raw fish decreasing when the supply of raw fish increases.
- In contrast to the pangasius industry, the export value of the entire shrimp industry in 2M2025 will reach an impressive growth rate of 33% YoY. The main driving force came from other shrimp (lobster) increasing sharply, while whiteleg shrimp increased slightly by 12% YoY and tiger prawn decreased by 12% YoY. Whiteleg shrimp recorded uniform growth from both production (+6% YoY) and selling price (+5% YoY). Meanwhile, tiger prawn recorded a decline in both production and selling price of 8%/5% YoY, respectively.
- The gross margin of the shrimp and pangasius industry in Q1/2025 is expected to have QoQ growth thanks to the MoM growth in pangasius/shrimp selling prices. At the same time, the price of raw pangasius/shrimp is expected to gradually decrease month-over-month (MoM) as farmers increase stocking due to the current high profit margins.
PNJ – monitor to capture opportunities
18-03-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- In 2024, PNJ recorded net revenue of VND 37,823 bn (USD 1,501 mn), up 14.1% year-over-year, and net profit of VND 2,115 bn (USD 84 mn), rising 7.3% year-over-year. The jewelry retail and wholesale segments continued to post solid growth as consumer demand gradually returned and PNJ expanded its market share. Demand for 24K gold surged in the first half of the year due to rising gold prices but declined in the latter half as tighter regulatory measures on gold trading led to supply shortages. This supply constraint also impacted PNJ’s retail jewelry gross margin, which declined by an estimated 1.2 ppts year-over-year due to higher raw material costs.
- In March 2025, PNJ officially launched Mancode by PNJ, a jewelry brand targeting male consumers, along with a new store concept specializing in diamond jewelry—Diamond Lounge.
- Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have been on an upward trajectory, repeatedly breaking previous records. Despite record-high prices for gold rings and gold bars, consumer demand has remained robust, with buying activity outpacing selling, as reported by various media sources.
- For PNJ, inventory levels of raw materials have remained stable from early 2023 through the end of 2024. Under our base-case scenario, we expect PNJ’s retail jewelry business to be unaffected by the gold supply shortage.
- The target price for PNJ stock is VND 96,000 per share, implying an 9.3% upside potential from the market price as of 18/03/2025.
