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GMD – Update from 2018 AM

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image17-05-2018
: GMD
: Seaports
: Tung Do
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In 1Q2018, GMD posted revenue and EBT of VND689 Bn (-20% YoY) and VND1,507 Bn (+1,177%),respectively. After selling 51% stake in GMD logistics and 49% in GMD shippings in Feb 2018, revenue of logistics segment down 61% leading to a decrease of 20% in total revenue YoY due to not consolidating revenue from 2 companies. However, revenue from port businesses surged 32% thanks to the high utilization rate of Nam Hai Dinh Vu Port (~ 110% capacity) with support from Nam Hai ICD. Gross profit margin improved 7% thanks to not consolidating logistics segment (since Feb 2018) which has lower GPM compared to Port operation. As a result, Gross profit and core EBT experienced a modest growth of 5% and 10%, respectively.

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PPC – Update from 2018 AGM

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image16-05-2018
: PPC
: Utilities
: Others
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With earnings in 4M 2018 reaching over 55% of the annual guidance, the 2018 AGM of PPC reveals positive signals about its 2018 outlooks.

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Vietnam's Inflation Under The Effects of World Commodity Prices

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image15-05-2018
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: Others
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Looking at world commodity price movements in the first five months of 2018, we assessed:

  • The energy commodities continue to recover and crude oil prices have risen by 15-17% ytd. There are two main reasons for the surge in crude oil prices: 1) the US withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran 2) OPEC has cut oil production by 2019. Besides, we emphasize strong crude oil speculation as the crude oil net non-commercial futures positions remains around the top.

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Q1 2018 Business Results of Listed Banks

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image14-05-2018
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: Lam Nguyen
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Total operating income (TOI) and PBT of 14 listed banks (HSX, HNX, and Upcom) were VND 56,340 Bn and VND 20,126 Bn, up by 35% and 52% YoY respectively.

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GAS – Core Business to See Growth In 2018

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image11-05-2018
: GAS
:
: Vu Tran
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Under the restructuring plan, PetroVietnam (PVN) plans to reduce its ownership in GAS from 95% to 65% during 2018-2019. However, the 2018 AGM confirmed that the divestment cannot be completed this year. The market immediately reacted negatively to the information. GAS share price dropped sharply in the last sessions of April from VND135,000 to VND96,500. However, the core business of GAS is still growing well so far in 2018 and the company is expanding its gas pipeline capacity.

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China and the Quad: Challenges for Southeast Asia

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image11-05-2018
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: Bernard Lapointe
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Last Wednesday (May 9) we talked on the phone with Tai Wei Lim, an adjunct research fellow the East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore. His research interests include energy and environmental histories of contemporary Japan and China. He is a specialist on modern China and Japan and a historian by training.

Here are his remarks/ comments on the issues facing ASEAN in its relationship with China.

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Lach Huyen Port’s operation and long-term impact on Cam River ports

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image10-05-2018
:
: Seaports, Transportation
: Tung Do
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The first deep water port in Northern Vietnam, Lach Huyen Port, will be operational on May 13th. The first two berths of the port have been developed by a Joint venture with Hai Phong International Container Terminal (HICT). When the first phase is completed, it will handle up to 300k TEUs this year.

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Update on real estate companies’ AGM

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image09-05-2018
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: Real Estate
: Others
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In recent annual general shareholders’ meeting, many real estate companies have announced their business plans for the whole year. Generally, companies set high targets for earning, which is around 50% higher than the previous year on average. We suppose that the plans can be completely feasible and achievable, because many projects are approaching their handover phases, creating a driving force for revenues and profits.

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MWG: Updates on Bach Hoa Xanh

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image08-05-2018
: MWG
: Retailing
: Others
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In Q1 2018, MWG opened 72 Bach Hoa Xanh stores, added to the total 355 stores. The total revenue was VND 606 Bn and EBITDA of VND 60 Bn. The monthly average revenue per store is VND 700 Mn with the gross margin of 14%, still far from reaching the target of VND 1 Bn in revenue and 14% in gross margin. It seems that the low margin is still a big concern for MWG.

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Updates on Industrial Properties

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image07-05-2018
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: Real Estate
: Others
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The potential for industrial real estate is becoming enormous given the increasing flows of FDI and the expansion of domestic production. However, Vietnamese developers have to face intense competition with other industrial park operators in ASEAN countries, especially Indonesia who has been offering great incentives to industrial investors.

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Vietnam Government Bond Yields Might Bottom Out

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image04-05-2018
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: Others
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What happened:

  • After decreasing for a while, bond yields went up significantly in the secondary market, especially 10Y yields who rose by over 50 bps to nearly 4.7%.
  • In the primary market, VST’s auctions were quiet and did not reach the amount of issuance planned for Q1 2018. Vietnam’s CPI is still under control.
  • Vietnam 5Y CDS have surged for almost a month and reached 141.7, a level not seen since August 2017.
  • ON interest rates, a proxy for short-term interest rates almost doubled in a month.

Opinion:

  • VGB yields might bottom out after a period of continuous decrease.
  • VGB trading yields are very sensitive to the FED’s monetary policy decision.
  • The government’s plan on reducing average lending rate will face obstacles in the context of a tighter monetary policy environment. Therefore, we think that that if the government can keep interest rates stable at current levels, it would be a show of success.
  • The gap between VGB 10Y and 2Y yields increased because the latter increased more slowly than the former. VGB 2Y yields benefited from the monetary policy of the SBV.

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Opinion- NAFTA and the Sierra Club

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image03-05-2018
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: Bernard Lapointe
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NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement between Canada, the US and Mexico) has been on the news since before President Trump was elected. The agreement went into effect in early 1994 and was preceded by the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement, signed in 1989. This author worked on the latter as a graduate student. 

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