Textile Industry Prospects for 2017: Optimism Due to Recovery in Demand

Export turnover growth in Vietnam has suffered a slowdown in growth since 2015, along with the weak global textile demand. The main reasons for this included the following: (1) the slowdown in economic growth in US, Japan and the EU, which are the largest markets for Vietnam’s textile products and (2) orders shifting to other rival markets including Cambodia and Bangladesh because of favorable exchange rates and tariffs.

PAC: Opportunities Have Passed/Stable Outlook in 2017

Dry Cell & Storage Battery JSC (PAC-HSX) had a successful year in 2016 as a result of strong demand,  low material prices, and the stable exchange rate. Although there is still positive demand ahead in 2017 due to the double digit growth in automobile sales, there are still other factors that will not support PAC’s business in the future. The increase of input prices will force PAC to make some adjustments to ensure the stability of its business. On top of this, the Vinachem divestment is unlikely to take place this year. However, information relating to this divestment’s probability, as well as the enthusiasm relating to its new strategic partner, can help PAC’s valuation remain high (~15x PE). Please refer the content below for more details:

PGS – Stable Growth

On 16/02/2017, RongViet Research had a meeting with the representative of Southern Gas JSC (PGS – HNX). 2016 was a transformation period for PGS, as the company completed its divestment in CNG, which gradually improved its financial situation.  Moreover, GAS plans to increase its ownership of PGS to 51%, which will allow PGS to capture more market share and to record higher growth.

Update on 2017 Prospects for Several Construction Stone Companies

The stock price movement for the majority of construction stone companies has recovered quite well amid the market’s continued positive performance. Specifically, the share prices of C32, NNC, KSB and DHA increased by 13.6%, 8.5%, 4.6% and 4.3%, respectively.  This recovery came shortly after these stocks reaching a 1 year low during the beginning of this month. The main reason for this increase was the previous strong correction of these stocks, strong fundamentals for these companies, and rumors relating to the expansion of Nui Nho and Tan Dong Hiep Mine. We would like to show a quick update on 2016 earnings results and the 2017 outlook for these enterprises.

CNG – Negative Prospects for 2017

On 14/02/2017, oil & gas analyst from RongViet Research has a meeting with the representative of CNG Viet Nam Joint Stock Company (CNG – HSX). 2016 business results did not show remarkable growth. 2017 will be the period that PVGAS has several changes in price mechanism for gas distribution companies. As a results, it will negatively impact on the performance of CNG.

Automotive retail industry outlook in 2017: Twilight?

The automotive retail sector has delivered positive growth in recent periods.  In 2017, we believe consumption growth is expected to continue to rise due to the increase in disposable incomes and the increased demand for transportation. At the same time, 2017 is considered as a prominent year due to the significant changes in policies that will protect Vietnam’s developing automotive industry from the pressure of FTAs. Furthermore, the wave of car imports from ASEAN countries will force operators and executives to focus on adapting to meet the new competition from imports. Our view based on 3 reasonings below:

CTI – Strong Long-Term Growth Prospects

Cuong Thuan IDICO JSC (CTI-HSX) continues to benefit from rising infrastructure demand in Dong Nai. During FY2016, the firm’s revenue and NPAT increased by 27%YoY and 66% YoY respectively. The results were driven by strong performance of road toll operations and construction activities. The company’s toll revenue was VND176 billion (74% YoY growth), which was driven by CTI receiving approval to collect toll from Phase 1 of BOT 91 and from its BOT Vo Nguyen Giap project’s toll fee rising by 60% in the beginning of 2016. Construction revenue recorded stable growth of 10%, mainly from the recognition of its own development projects.

REE – Benefits from the Recovery of the Real Estate Market

REE released it Q4 financial report and had very strong performance. Specifically, in the last quarter of 2016, the company recorded VND1,300 billion in revenue (+200% YoY) and VND620 billion NPAT (+240% YoY). For the full FY2016, REE realized total revenue of VND3,659 billion (+38.4% YoY), resulting in NPAT increasing by 30%, equivalent to VND1,171 billion.

Expanding International Routes - The Inevitable Trend

According to RongViet Research’s estimations, domestic air passenger transportation in 2016 was approximately 30 million, of which Vietjet Air (VJC) and Vietnam Airline (HVN) accounted for 13 million and 12.7 million, respectively. Despite these impressive figures, these airlines still need to exploit not only domestic, but also international routes in order to fully utilize their upcoming aircrafts.

HAH - Small Ports Have Been Hit the Hardest

Declining cargo growth and new port supply both led to intense competition for port operators in Hai Phong (Northern Vietnam) in 2016. Small port operators have been hit the hardest by these changes. Consequently, Hai An Stevedoring and Transport JSC (HAH-HSX) saw revenue and earnings after tax fall by 7%YoY and 20%YoY, respectively.

HPG’s 2016 Business Results: Thriving Profitability

Since the company has been continuously improving its recently completed plant in Hai Duong, HPG is capable of producing over 200,000 tons of construction steel products per month. As the company’s well-developed retail network assists its sales volume, HPG has now captured over 22% of the domestic market share for long products, allowing it to overcome VNSteel Group, which has a market share of 21%, and gain the top position.

Regarding steel pipes, several capacity expansions during the year enabled Hoa Phat to sell nearly 500,000 tons in 2016. At the present, HPG’s market share is approximately 26%, while its archrival, Hoa Sen recorded a reduced market share of around 20%.

The US Border Tax Adjustments (BTAs) and its Impact on Vietnam

During the Lunar New Year holiday, the market received negative news from the US, as it is considering border tax adjustments (BTAs) on imported products that will affect global trade.  This will affect a large number of global markets, particularly Vietnam.  In this note, Rong Viet Research would like to share with investors some preliminary comments on this policy and its impact on Vietnam.