Recession Impact On 2023 Global IT Spending Across Segments Will Be Mixed
12-12-2022
: FPT, CMG
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags: FPT CMG IT
- IT spending tends to suffer on the downside when the global economy was going down.
- However, enterprise IT spending will remain more resilient than in past recessions due to the structural change induced by the pandemic: a softening growth is expected instead of a severe pullback in IT budgets.
- Mixed prospects across key sectors of IT spending where demand for devices (PC/laptops/tablets/smartphones) will be weaker than for software and IT services.
- The resilience outlook of IT services will bolster Vietnam tech companies’ outlook in 2023.
PVD – Turn around in 2023
09-12-2022
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Vu Tran
Tags: PVD
- PVD recorded loss in 3Q2022 mainly due to a sharp increase in financial expenses. The bottom line will have no significant change in 4Q2022 and PVD will book a loss of VND168 bn in 2022.
- The gap between demand and supply has been narrowed down in South East Asia (SEA), pushing the utilization rate up and the day rate as well.
- PVD has signed the contract full year for its fleets. Following that, the rig day rate is estimated at 80,000 USD/day (up 27% YoY) in 2023 and the utilization rate is around 92%, compared to the 86% in 2022. We forecast that PVD can reach VND5,623 bn (USD234.3mn) in revenue, up 5.7% and VND320bn (USD13.3mn) in NPATMI (compared to the loss of VND168bn in 2022).
- We believe that there will be a re-rate in P/B of PVD in 2023 when the bottom-line hikes strongly in 2023 and may be 2024. We value PVD share at the target price of VND21,500, equivalent to P/B 2023 of 0.8x.
Global growth is slowing down… but will rebound
09-12-2022
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags: Macroeconomics
- GDP growth forecasts show a decline for 2023 versus 2022.
- China’s GDP is also forecasted to be much weaker than expected.
- However we are more optimistic for growth in the second half of 2023 as interest rate hikes will probably end and inflation will have peaked in the first part of the year.
QTP – Not only a growing stock but also a dividends yield play
08-12-2022
: QTP
: Utilities
: Thao Nguyen
Tags: QTP
- In 3Q2022, QTP posted revenue and NPATMI of VND 3.141 bn (or USD 131 mn) and VND 147 bn (or USD 6.1 mn), +59% YoY and +72% YoY, respectively. Revenue surged in the rainy season owing to (1) a slight rise of 10% YoY in volume and (2) a climb of 50% in ASP. Gross profit margin expanded by 145bps to 7% in 3Q2022 from 6% in 3Q2021.
- The dry season is set to come back and QTP’s earnings are going to grow in 2023 thanks to (1) thermal turnaround theme and (2) competitive costs.
- Currently, QTP is trading as 7.2x and 0.97x of P/E and P/B, respectively, which is relatively lower than that of the last 5-year on an average basis. Meanwhile, the dividend yield is forecasted to be roughly 10% as of Dec 08th, 2022. Therefore, investors can BUY this stock to enjoy a capital gain and cash dividend.
Seafood industry – The booming period has passed
07-12-2022
: VHC, ANV, FMC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags: Industry update Industry outlook
- Sudden growth in 2022 puts pressure on 2023 seafood export growth. Seafood exports have started to slow down from 2H2022. Raw material prices remain high while selling prices decreased, putting pressure on the gross margin of companies.
- China's opening could play a role to support Vietnam's seafood exports.
- Valuations seem attractive- a good opportunity for gradually accumulating stocks which have solid fundamentals.
IDC – Restructure to boost growth
06-12-2022
: IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Le Tu Quoc Hung
Tags: Earnings update Industrial Park
- In 3Q2022, total revenue reached VND 2,053 billion or USD 84 million (+128% YoY) and NPAT was VND 422 billion or USD 17 million (+150% YoY). In 9M2022, IDC’s revenue increased by +27% YoY to VND 7,034 billion or USD 287 million and its PBT jumped by 325% YoY to VND 2,948 billion or USD 120 million thanks to the surges of IP leasing, energy, toll fee collection businesses.
- IDC is in a restructuring progress, which is now focusing on just four pillars including industrial parks, residential real estate, energy, and industrial services, while other non-related businesses will be gradually divested.
- We believe in a positive short- and long-term outlook for IDICO (HNX: IDC) because of the following reasons: IP leasing segment will be supported by (1) numerous signed contracts and MOUs balance of 2022 are expected to be booked in 2023, (2) unearned revenue balance is expected to be recognized gradually in the next quarters, and (3) large available GFA secure supply at least for 4-5 year. In addition, (4) the resumption of Dak Mi 3, (5) the plan to develop rooftop solar power systems, as well as (6) the ambitious development plan of ~110 hectares of RBFs by 2026 are boosting source for energy business and industrial park services segment.
Steel industry - Few Recovery Opportunities in 2023
05-12-2022
: HPG, NKG, SMC, HSG
: Materials
: Tam Pham
Tags: Sector outlook NKG HPG HSG SMC
- Increasing difficulties in export markets, domestic demand will play a leading role in revenue growth in 2023. Construction steel and steel pipes, which have a higher proportion of domestic consumption, may grow faster than GDP, while coated steel will recover slowly from mid-2023 due to monetary policy tightening globally. Accordingly, we expect the prospect of recovery more positively in construction steel companies, including HPG, Formosa, Pomina...
- Gross profit margin will recover slowly due to weak consumption. Prices of coking coal, iron ore and scrap will fluctuate in the narrow amplitude around the end-2022 level due to the low demand for raw materials of upstream mills globally. Selling prices will rise gradually from Q3 in both domestic and export markets.
- VND depreciation and interest rate hiking are going to pressure financial expenses. VND will still depreciate vs. USD and borrowing interest rate will increase at least until mid-2023, following the Fed's rate hikes, creating a burden on financial expenses for businesses that have struggled with gloomy business prospects. Businesses are and will limit the impact of the issues of exchange rate and interest rate increase via tightening borrowing needs and managing working capital more closely.
TRA – Restructuring activities show positive results
02-12-2022
: TRA
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quan Cao
Tags: Pharmaceuticals TRA
- In 9M2022, the parent company's net revenue and NPAT reached VND 1,818 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 231 billion (+29% YoY), respectively, completing 78% and 81% of the full-year plan. Revenue and NPAT for the whole year 2022 are expected to reach VND 2,450 billion (+13% YoY) and VND 320 billion (+32% YoY), respectively, exceeding the plan by 5% and 12%.
Domestic tire demand is expected to rebound from Q4 2022
01-12-2022
: DRC, SCR, CSM
: Automobiles
: An Nguyen
Tags: DRC SCR CSM Rubber tires Sector outlook
- Although there is a risk that the weak macroeconomic backdrop will reduce purchasing power of Vietnam consumers, it will not fully translate into lower sales of automotive part producers in 2023, given that truck production was cut from Q3 2021 to Q2 2022. We expect truck makers to rebuild their inventories in 2023, thus pushing up tire demand.
- Domestic logistic activities will rise in Q4 2022 due to 1) holiday season; 2) better road infrastructure; and 3) expected re-opening of China’s economy. Earnings sources of tire producers come from replacement and OEMs demand which positively correlated with logistic demand.
- To cope with expected increasing tire demand, Vietnam local-based rubber tire producers plan to expand their production capacity in 2023. DRC is going to complete the phase 3 of Radial tire plant within the 2023-24 period. CSM has a plan to upgrade the TBR tire plant. SRC plans to invest in expanding the production capacity of tubeless motorcycle tires.
Real Estate Market – Supply-demand asymmetry and increased interest rate pressure will bring difficulties to suburban projects and resort tourism in 2023
30-11-2022
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Anh Tran
Tags: Real estate
- The demand for housing in Hanoi & Ho Chi Minh City is currently excessive and it is forecasted that the demand will continue to increase in the coming years measured by the following factors: (1) the annual population growth rate, (2) the increasing scarce land fund and (3) the infrastructure connecting Ha Noi and HCM with suburban areas has not yet been synchronously implemented. On this basis, we appreciate the short, medium, and long-term prospects of enterprises owning large land funds in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh. In which some listed companies such as VHM, KDH, HDG.
- However, in the favorable context, credit growth is expanded and interest rates remain low in the period 2018-2021 and investment demand increases significantly during the COVID-19, project development activities in the suburbs of Hanoi & Ho Chi Minh and other areas with potential for tourism development recorded an explode, in terms of demand, these projects have not focused on the segment of customers who have an actual desire to buy houses for accommodation.
- Following many difficulties in 2022, we believe that the monetary policy in 2023 will still be quite challenging for real estate development activities for investment/speculation. On the other hand, we believe that housing projects concentrated in areas with high population density and meeting real demand will still have good liquidity. However, the number of these projects is not many and not many businesses in our analysis portfolio have this supply available. Therefore, we expect investors to have more better sales policies (including discounts on sale prices) in projects are about to be opened for sale to stimulate demand.
ELC – Intelligent Transport System Segment To Contribute More Meaningfully
29-11-2022
: ELC
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags: ELC
- ELC recorded 3Q2022 revenue of VND250 billion (+19% YoY) while 9M-2022 revenue reached VND 626 billion (+23% YoY), led by Intelligent Transport System (ITS) segment (+73% YoY, accounting for 40% of total revenue) and Telecom segment (+29% YoY, accounting for 29% of total revenue).
- Due to the robust growth of ITS and Telecom segments, 9M-2022 gross margin improved by 120 bps YoY to 17.8%.
- However, 9M-2022 NPAT-MI declined by 26% YoY due to the surge in selling and administration expenses +39% YoY and higher minority interest expenses compared to the same period last year.
- ELC is trading at a TTM P/E of 11.3x (vs a 5Y average of 21.4x) and P/B of 0.7x (vs a 5Y average of 0.4x). We are pending a fuller review on ELC and will update recommendation and TP for the stock in the next report.
Update on monetary market in Nov 2022
28-11-2022
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags: Monetary market
- 2022’s M2 growth is less than half of the average growth rate in the period 2013-21.
- Liquidity pressure eased somewhat in November 2022.
- The interest rate race is getting hotter toward the end of the year.
12-12-2022
130 
