CMG - Preliminary 1H-2022 Results: Robust Results of Global Business Division Led the Growth : CMG : Software, Technologies : Tung Do Tags: CMG
1H-2022 (from Apr 1st to Sep 30th ) results: Net sales grew by 36% YoY to VND 3,918 Bn and PBT jumped by 23% YoY to VND 246 Bn. In terms of 1H-2022 sales by division, Global business division posted the strongest growth of 83% YoY, followed by Technology & Solutions division (+38% YoY) and Telecom division (+22% YoY). For 1H-2022 PBT by division, Telecom still contributed the most (57% of the Group’s PBT), but growth has decelerated to only 3% YoY, while Global business started to gained traction after 5Y of inception in terms of both PBT growth (89% YoY) and contribution (34% of the Group’s PBT). The company reveals the guidance for the 2H-2022 with expectation to exceed full year PBT target by 14%.
Textile & Apparel sector in 4Q2022: Foggy Bottom : STK : Textile & Garment : Hoai Trinh Tags: STK
LTG – Rice business: Expecting a strong growth in selling volume and a recovery in the gross margin : LTG : Food, Beverage & Tobacco : An Nguyen Tags: LTG
1H2022 revenue of the rice business (also named LTA) of LTG had a high double-digit growth of + 44.5% YoY to VND3,445 bn. LTG explained that new global customers (e.g., European partners) and increasing rice demand from the Philippines in 1H2022 drove the strong growth of rice export quantity. Despite the decrease of export rice prices, 1H2022 gross margin was 3.1%, +120 bps higher than that in 1H2021. According to LTG, they expanded their scale, thus enjoying the advantage of economies of scale resulting in a lower production cost per unit. We believe that the 2022-2023 period will be an
expansion one for the company. Both selling volume and prices will show an
upward trend. Selling volume will grow based on 1) lower production from India;
and 2) high import rice demand from the Philippines.
HAH – Poor outlook for the end of the year : HAH : Seaports : Quan Cao Tags:
Accumulated 8M2022, revenue and NPAT reached VND 2,200 billion and VND 580 billion, completing 92% and 105% of the annual plan, respectively. It is expected that in Q3/2022, revenue and NPAT will reach VND 850 billion (+79% YoY) and VND 200 billion (+115% YoY) respectively. Update on HAH's fleet: Haian City vessel completed repairs on September 27th , 2022 and handed over to tenants, the time of contract will extend until January 2023. HAH is expected to hand over the Akibo in November 2022, now that the vessel has been converted into ownership and is being leased to a Korean company. Currently, the Korean partner still needs to extend the charter contract. Legal procedures to establish Zim – Hai An Container Transport JVC is still in progress. It is expected that in the second half of October 2022 it will be granted a business license by the Department of Planning and Investment of Hai Phong City. The plan was to put the vessel into operation starting in November 2022 but will be postponed until January 2023 or after the Lunar New Year because Zim and Hai An both found that the current import and export situation of goods is not favorable.
NLG – Longer-than-expected sales launch : NLG : Real Estate : Anh Tran Tags: Business Update
In 3Q22, NLG only launched two new subdivisions, including: The Akari- block 9 (July 26, 2022) and The Ehome- Southgate – Phase 2 (August 21, 2022). However, sales result recorded lower than before. Accumulating 9 months, we estimate pre-sales value to reach at VND 9,600 bn, an increase of about VND 1,200 bn compared to the number at the end of 2Q22. Completing 40% of the plan. The plan to launch the Can Tho, Izumi and Paragon Dai Phuoc projects are expected to move to 2023. In 3Q2022, Rong Viet estimates revenue and NPATMI to reach VND 812 billion (-35% QoQ and +438% YoY) and VND 48 billion (-57% QoQ and -83% YoY). In 2022, we forecast the revenue and NPATMI to be VND 4,403 bn (-15% YoY) and VND 245 bn (-77% YoY), respectively, completing 62% and 20% of 2022 plan. EPS is estimated at VND 640/share. We maintain the BUY recommendation for NLG for holding of more than 12 months. The adjusted target price of VND 45,800/share , upside +68% compared to the closing price of October 4, 2022, (lower 4,700 VND compared to the target price in the report of October 4, 2022). Due to a change in the launching time of Can Tho, Izumi and Paragon Dai Phuoc projects to 2023, which affected by the legal and market situation, in addition to adjusting the discount rate in line with the increasing trend. of interest rates.
MBB – 8M2022 Performance Update : MBB : Banking : Tam Pham Tags: Business Update
PBT of parent bank reached VND14,500 billion in 8M2022, compared to nearly VND10,000 billion in the same period last year. Total PBT of subsidiaries were nearly VND2,000 billion in 8M, of which MCredit reached nearly VND800 billion. High credit growth and NIM’s expansion drove earnings growth. Asset quality and risk costs were well-controlled but pressures are rising. Increasing risk to be awared with high exposure in sectors that related to real estate. Forecast and valuation are being updated considering the risk-reward balance and the context of increasing capital costs.
LHG – Value is still there : LHG : Industrial Land RE : Hung Le Tags: Business Update
Long Hau 3 phase 1 still has enough leasable area to ensure earning results at least until 2024. Meanwhile, the project of An Dinh Industrial Park and Long Hau 3 Industrial Park Phase 2 delay until end of 2024 – early 2025 due to the impact of the decree 35. We expect LHG's 3Q2022’s earnings to show a strong recovery compared to the same period last year. Specifically, revenue is estimated at ~VND 208.18 billion (+300.03% YoY), EAT is 78.65 billion dong (+295.35% YoY) and gross profit margin returns to level ~50% compared to 25% in the previous quarter. Based on the sum-of-the-parts valuation (SOTP), we maintain our BUY recommendation and lower the target price to 52,000/share to (1) adjusting the discount rate to be more reasonable to the context of increasing interest rate pressure, (2) delay An Dinh Industrial Park and Long Hau 3 – phase 2 till 2025, and (3) adjusted the average land leasing price for 2022 to $230/m2 and $240/m2 for the year 2023. Adding an annual cash dividend of VND 1,700 per share , the total expected return will be +104.4% (compared to the closing price of 09/29/2022).
Europe: Currency issues : VDS : Macroeconomics : Bernard Lapointe Tags: Currency
This writer travelled to Paris and Frankfurt lately to meet with contacts and was amazed at how much the focus was on the British Pound. The Euro continues to be weak. European companies are keen on reducing their manufacturing exposure to China. SE Asia should benefit from ‘re-localization’.
Seafood – Signals of pangasius export recovery in 4Q2022 : VHC : Fishery : Loan Nguyen Tags: Sector outlook
In 8M-2022, pangasius export value reached USD 1.8 Bn, soaring 80% YoY. In August 2022, pangasius exports to many markets showed positive signs of recovery with USD 195 Mn, slightly increasing compared to July. In 3Q2022, RongViet Research forecasts that
pangasius export value will decrease by about 20-25% compared to 2Q2022 but
will roughly double compared to the low base of the same period. We expect that
pangasius exports in Q4 will gradually improve compared to Q3 due to some
positive signs from the demand side. In 2023, we expect that pangasius exports to the
US and EU markets will gradually cool down due to recovering global supply and
decreasing consumption while Chinese market will be the bright spot driven by
pent-up demand.
FPT 8M 2022 Update : FPT : Technologies : Tung Do Tags: Business Update
8M-2022 Revenue reached VND 27 trillion (+24% YoY) while NPAT-MI amounted to VND 3.4 trillion (+30% YoY), respectively fulfilling 63% and 57% of our full-year forecasts. Earnings results trailed behind our forecasts mostly due to softer-than-expected Education and Investments segment’ profit, while Technology and Telecom segments’ earnings are in line with our expectations, respectively fulfilling 63% and 66% of our full-year estimates. Technology segment continues to lead the growth with revenue and PBT respectively growing by 24% YoY and 25% YoY, while those of the Telecom segment increased by 17% YoY and 22% YoY, respectively. Current TP of VND 110,300 (implying a total return of 40% as of Sep 27, 2022) is under review as we are pending the revision of the Education and Investments segment’s profit.
GMD – Headwind in the short-term : GMD : Logistics : Thao Nguyen Tags: Business Update
In 2Q2022, the company posted revenue/NPATMI of VND 978/288 bn (or USD 41/ 12 mn), +30%/+103% YoY. Despite a decline of 2% QoQ/-20% YoY in volume in that quarter (exl. Gemalink), the company’s gross profit margin broadens by 456 bps QoQ /211 bps YoY to 45% thanks to better cost management. In early 3Q2022, total throughput has reflected the cooldown of trade activities in Vietnam. In 8M2022, the Hai Phong area was the key driver +10% YoY while Vung Tau and HCM landscape only climbed by 1% YoY. We think that the stock price is hard to perform well in the short term as we expect that GMD will encounter a short-term headwind of global trade cooldown due to high inflation in Vietnam’s key trading partners. However, the company has bright long-term prospects through the 2nd phase of Nam Dinh Vu and Gemalink Terminal. Our latest target price is VND 61,100, offering an upside of 30% compared the closing price as of Sep 27th , 2022. Hence, we recommend to BUY this stock.
The prospect of raising the regulatory interest rates : VDS : Macroeconomics : Ha My Tags: Interest
Even more hawkish Fed after the September meeting. The dong can depreciate 4-5% this year. The prospect of raising the regulatory interest rates
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