Persistent US CPI inflation maintains the Fed’s reluctant to cut rate : VDS : Macroeconomics : Luan Pham Tags:
Inflation is running hotter than expected Key factors in the inflation equation Persistent US CPI inflation maintains the Fed’s unwillingness to cut the rate.
REE – Stable growth and attractive valuation : REE : Power : Hoai Trinh Tags: REE
For 2024, we expect REE's profits to grow owing to (1) The hydropower group's business results are expected to be positive, with output recovering when La Nina is likely to return from mid-2024; (2) Etown 6 will come into operation from Q2/2024, contributing an additional 26% to the existing leasing floor area; (3) The real estate segment will record additional contributions from The Light Square residential real estate project phase 1 (opening for sale in Q1 and expected handover in Q2); (4) The M&E segment in 2023 was a low base when REE has made a provision for bad debts (VND 200 bn) in Q4/2023. Accordingly, we forecast that REE's net revenue and NPAT-MI will reach VND 9,478 bn/USD 386 mn (+11% YoY) and VND 2,519 bn/USD 103 mn (+15% YoY), respectively. We maintain a BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 74,200/share based on the Sum of the Parts (SoTP) valuation method, equivalent to an expected return of 26% based on the closing price on Feb 16th, 2024
Vietnam's FDI in 2024 to maintain upbeat : VDS : Macroeconomics : My Tran Tags: FDI
Vietnam is an exception in attracting FDI in the world in 2023 The Northern Industrial Cluster is the destination for Chinese investors FDI in January 2024: positive in terms of capital disbursement.
DPM – Accept high gas prices as the new normal : DPM : Oil & Gas : Ngan Le Tags: DPM 4Q2023
DPM announced 4Q2023 net revenue and NPAT-MI were VND 3,382 bn (USD 143 mn, -13% YoY, +5% QoQ ) and VND 108 bn (USD 4.5 mn; -91% YoY; +68% QoQ), respectively. We expect FY2024 revenue to be flat compared to 2023 while the blended gross margin will be slightly widen to 13.1% from 12.2% in 2023 thanks to the cooling down in FO price. As a result, FY2024 NPAT-MI is expected to reach VND 752 bn (USD 32 mn; +41% YoY). Corresponding EPS is VND 1,906. Previously, DPM has released 2024 guidance with VND 12,755 bn (USD 538 mn) revenue and VND 660 bn (USD 28 mn) PBT. We maintain a NEUTRAL recommendation with an 11% lower one-year target price of VND 30,100/share (from VND 32,200/share). The lower target price is primarily driven by downward earnings
NTC – Heading toward a bright future : NTC : Industrial Land RE : Hung Le Tags: NTC
In a marked rebound, the Q4/2024 business results of Nam Tan Uyen Joint Stock Corporation (UPCOM: NTC) have shown improvement compared to the last quarter but slight deterioration compared to the same period last year. Specifically, revenues in Q4/2023 reached VND 63bn (USD 2.57 mn, -21% YoY). In contrast, NPAT improved by 41% YoY to VND 68 bn (USD 2.8 mn) thanks to the increase in financial income, namely dividend and interest income. For the full year of 2023, the company’s revenue reached VND 235bn (USD 9.5 mn, -12% YoY, achieving 36% of annual plan), with NPAT of VND 300 bn (USD 12.6 mn, +17% YoY, completing about 106% of the annual target). The EPS for 2023 was VND 12,486. In the baseline scenario for 2024, NTC’s revenue is estimated to reach VND 750 bn (up 219% YoY; USD 30.6 mn) and a net profit of VND 484 bn (up 52% YoY; USD 20 mn), driven by the handover of over 90 hectares of land in NTU3 project. We expect major bottlenecks of new projects of NTC’s associate investments in Binh Phuoc to possibly resolved as Decision No. 326/QĐ-TTg revision is under discussion. We maintain our BUY recommendation with the target price increasing to VND 276,000 per share as NTU 3 is more likely to start this year. Combined with a cash dividend of VND 6,000 per share over the next 12 months, the total expected return is 34.1% compared to the closing price on Feb 6, 2024
C&G Market (Collagen and Gelatin) and growth prospect : VHC, ANV : Fishery : Hien Le Tags:
According to a report by Precedence Research, the global collagen market is estimated to reach a capitalization of USD 10.08 bn in 2022, with a projected Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 8.9% during the 2023-2032 period as (1) the increasing demand for collagen to enhance joint and skin health as the world's average age rises, and (2) the gradual increase in individual incomes, which is expected to stimulate higher spending on health care products. US, Germany, Japan, and Canada are major importer of C&G powder products, while China is the largest exporter of C&G powder. The C&G powder market has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% during the 2013-2022 period. Among the top importing countries, the volume of collagen powder imports has surpassed that of Gelatin. The prices of C&G range from approximately USD 7-9/kg in major importing countries. The entry of VHC into the C&G market (since 2015, primarily in powder form) and ANV (since 2023) is expected to optimize by-products from pangasius. We anticipate that the C&G segment of VHC and ANV will achieve double-digit CAGR for the 2024-2032 period as companies increase their factory capacities to meet consumer demand.
ACB - Sustaining growth focused on quality and efficiency : ACB : Banking : Chinh Dang Tags:
ACB announces its Q4 operational results with consolidated total operating income (TOI) reaching VND 8.4 trillion (USD 381.82 million) (+5.7% YoY and -0.5% QoQ) and profit before tax (PBT) reaching VND 5 trillion (USD 227.27 million) (+39.7% YoY and +0.2% QoQ), attributed to sustained growth in income and effective cost control For the entire year of 2023, the cumulative total operating income and profit before tax are VND 32.7 trillion (USD 1.485 billion) (+14% YoY) and VND 20 trillion (USD 909.09 million) (+17% YoY), successfully achieving the bank's 100% profit plan for 2023. Key drivers for income and profit growth include (1) a 6% YoY increase in net interest income, (2) a 48% YoY increase in non-interest income, and (3) a 6% YoY reduction in operating expenses The non-performing loan ratio for customer loans is 1.22%, up 1 basis point from the previous quarter, partly influenced by the CIC. Regarding the internal portfolio, the non-performing loans for personal customers stand at 1.1%, and for business customers, it is 1.11%. ACB's structured debt as of the end of 2023 is VND 2.2 trillion (USD 100 million), compared to VND 1.8 trillion (USD 81.82 million) in September Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate the bank's total income to grow at a faster rate than in 2023, driven by net interest income. Additionally, we expect the bank to effectively manage internal non-performing loans, while the impact of CIC gradually diminishes, maintaining profit growth in the double digits as in previous years. The current target price is VND 29,000 per share, and we are reviewing adjustments to better reflect recent positives
PVD – “April showers bring May flowers” : PVD : Oil & Gas : Ngan Le Tags: PVD oil&gas
In 4Q2023 PVD reported revenue of VND 1,747 bn (USD 74 mn; +20% YoY), led by drilling services. Overall, PVD recorded revenue of VND 5,812 bn (USD 245 mn; +7% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 579 bn (USD 24 mn, 2022: loss of VND 103 bn) for FY2023. 2023 EPS is VND 803. Thanks to the high demand for rigs in SEA, all of PVD’s drilling rigs have secured contracts for 2024 with a day rate of USD 90k – USD 100k (+11% YoY). This will partly ensure the company’s bottom line in 2024, which is anticipated to increase by 12% YoY to VND 646 bn (USD 27 mn). Correspondent EPS and BVPS are VND 1,161 and VND 27,508. In 2025-2026, drilling activities in the domestic market are anticipated to become vibrant thanks to major O&G projects such as Block B, Su Tu Trang 2B and Lac Da Vang. The well services segment is also expected to boom as a result. We remain ACCUMULATE and raise PVD’s target price by 7% to VND 33,000/share to reflect PVD’s NPAT growth outlook in 2024.
ACV – 4Q-2023 Financial Results: Profit Falls Short of Expectations but Some Positive Signs Emerge : ACV : Aviation : Tung Do Tags: ACV
ACV has announced its Q4-2023 financial results, reporting revenue and net profit (excluding Takeoff/Landing operations) of VND 5.1 trillion (+24% YoY and -5% QoQ) and VND 1,310 billion (+26% YoY and -46% QoQ), respectively. The increase in the proportion of international passengers helped mitigate the QoQ decline in revenue compared to passenger volume (-17% QoQ), surpassing our previous expectations. Despite falling short of our profit expectations due to ACV increasing provisions for overdue receivables from Bamboo Airways, Pacific Airlines, and Vietravel Airlines, there are several positive points to note: (1) ACV has provisioned for most of the bad debts from the aforementioned airlines, significantly reducing the provisioning pressure for 2024, and (2) ACV has begun to reverse provisions of VND 260 billion for bad debts from Vietjet. For the full year, ACV recorded revenue of VND 20 trillion (+45% YoY) and net profit (excluding Takeoff/Landing operations) of VND 7.3 trillion (+18% YoY), equivalent to an EPS of 3,362 VND, surpassing full-year profit plan by 25%. The current target price of VND 77,600, and the 2024 forecasts will be updated in the upcoming report
Residential market – Expectations for a broader recovery : KDH, NLG, HDG : Real Estate : Thach Lam Do, CFA Tags: KDH NLG HDG
Within the framework of the residential industry, we believe that the land law has provided a relatively complete legal framework, which has a clear impact on companies in the industry: 1/ The residential real estate sector will be developed more sustainably, reducing the phenomenon of investors those consolidate agricultural land and develop projects that are inconsistent with local general plans; 2/ For developers with land funds that are facing legal issues, their projects will have to wait until 2025, when the amended Land Law comes into effect and the guiding Decrees are completed, to be able to continue the legal process to put them into operation. The major points of the Land Law (amended) including: 1/ Provide regulations to ensure consistency of the planning system; 2/ Projects which will be directly recovered by the State (Social housing projects, Urban area projects with various service functions, investment projects to renovate and rebuild apartment buildings, sea reclamation projects for socio-economic development purposes,…); 3/ Detailed regulations on cases of land allocation through (a) auction of land use rights, (b) bidding for investor selection and (c) agreement on obtaining land use rights; 4/ Specific regulations on valuation methods to determine land prices and applicable conditions (Articles 158 with 04 methods), whereby land use fees will be calculated closer to market prices, increasing efficiency in state budget collection activities, but will also increase project’s development costs in the future (Residential land prices maintain a long-term upward trend). For tier-I cities, we believe that units serving residential needs (especially the apartment segment) will continue to be promoted for sales in 2024. For low-rise units, we expect secondary prices to recover more significantly in the 2H2024, thereby supporting sales of these unis in the primary market. For tier II cities, given secondary market shows no signs of bottoming out and recovering, we believe that the primary market and sales events in tier-II cities will also recover more slowly than in tier-I cities.
MSR – 2024 profit is expected to improve thanks to increasing selling prices : MSR : Retailing : An Nguyen Tags: MSR
Q3 2023, Masan High-Tech Materials Jsc. (UPCOM: MSR) recorded net sales of VND3,590 bn (or USD150 mn; +1.7% QoQ; +1.8% YoY). Net sales increased QoQ due to the growth of the Copper segment. NPAT–MI continued to be negative at VND-229 bn (or USD-10 mn) due to high costs pressure, however, higher than Q2 2023 NPAT–MI at VND-515 bn (or USD-21 mn) thanks to quarterly recovery in selling prices. Due to weak 1H2023 result, 9M2023 accumulated net sales and NPAT–MI reached VND10,905bn (or USD454 mn; -6.4% YoY) and VND-740bn (or USD-31 mn; VND262 bn or USD11 mn in 9M2022), respectively. Gross profit margin improved in Q3 2023, reaching 11.1% (+460 bps QoQ; -500 bps YoY) thanks to a quarterly recovery in selling prices. The SG&A expenses/sales ratio slightly decreased compared to Q2 2023, reaching 6.6% (-60 bps QoQ; -60 bps YoY) thanks to effective SG&A expenses management. As a result, the operating profit margin was improved, reaching 4.5% (+510 bps QoQ; -440 bps YoY). In 2024, we expect that MSR’s revenue will continue to increase because (1) Production volume will return to normal level as NPMC (Nui Phao Mining Company) will return to operate; and (2) Commodity prices (such as Copper, Bismuth, or ATP) will increase. The gross margin will continue to recover in 2024. Without recorded unusual expenses from the blasting interruption as in 2023, and the ability to utilize SG&A expenses, we expect that MSR will record 2024 positive net profit
Update on monetary market in Jan 2024 : VDS : Macroeconomics : My Tran Tags: Monetary market
Real estate credit growth was differentiated in 2023. Credit growth 2024: cautious optimism. Possibility of extending the term of Circular 02. Exchange rates increased sharply in the first month of the year
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