Livestock market – Live hog price to recover from 4Q21
28-10-2021
28-10-2021:
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: Toan Dao
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- The downward trend in live hog prices accelerated in 3Q21 as the impact of strict social distancing in the South of Vietnam caused live hog prices to drop by 40% QoQ in 3Q. With production cost of around 35,000 VND/kg, even companies with fully integrated value chain are recording a loss of 25% on production cost.
- We expect pork demand in the South to improve from 4Q21 driven by (1) the opening of traditional markets and the resumption of on-site restaurant chains from Oct 28th, (2) accelerating the vaccination program for children according to the school opening schedule and (3) the recovery of inter-provincial transportation.
- DBC's 3Q21 revenue reached VND 2,682 Bn (USD 116 Mn, +5% YoY) and PBT of VND 169 Bn (USD 7.3 Mn, -61% YoY). In 9M21, the company completed 64% and 88% of revenue and PBT guidance, respectively.
- We expect that live hog price will bottom in Oct 28th, DBC's profit in 4Q21 will reach positive QoQ recovery as live hog price is increasing toward the company's production cost. Besides, we expect the recovery trend to extend in 1Q22 on the back of buoyant pork consumption in the New Year holiday.
38 VHC - Better-than-expected 4Q-FY21 NPAT outlook
27-10-2021
: VHC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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- We revise up our target price by 17% to VND70,000/share as we raise our 2021 and 2022 NPAT forecasts to VND 957 Bn (or USD 42 Mn, +36% YoY) and VND 1,198 Bn (USD 52 Mn, +25% YoY), respectively, after 3Q-FY21 NPAT beat our expectations, showing signs of maintaining high fillet export volume and solidly selling price increase. With an expected return of 12% including a 2% cash dividend yield for a one-year horizon, we recommend to ACCUMULATE.
- VHC released positive 3Q-FY21 results with revenue of VND 2,231 Bn (or USD 97 Mn, +24% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 255 Bn (or USD 11 Mn, +46% YoY), mainly driven by high fillet selling prices and cooling-down logistics costs.
- In 4Q-FY21, we project revenue and NPAT to be VND 2,433 Bn (or USD 106 Mn, +25% YoY and +9% QoQ) and VND 308 Bn (or USD 13 Mn, +101% YoY and 20% QoQ), respectively.
- For FY21, we project revenue and NPAT to reach VND 8,795 Bn (or USD 382 Mn, +25% YoY) and VND 957 Bn (or USD 42 Mn, +36% YoY), respectively. The 2021 EPS will be VND 5,176 and 2021 forward PER 13.5x.
FPT – 9M 2021 Business Results Update
26-10-2021
: FPT
: Retailing
: Tung Do
Tags:
- FPT posted Q3-2021 business results, in which net sales and PBT grew by 16% YoY and 20% YoY, respectively, to VND 8,725 bn and VND 1,639 bn. In terms of revenue, the IT sector (+24% YoY) continued to lead growth, compensating the deceleration of the Telecom sector (+8% YoY) and Education & Investment (-15% YoY). Meanwhile, PBT growth of IT/Telecommunications/Education & Investment reached 24% YoY/12% YoY/18% YoY.
- 9M-2021 net revenue and NPAT-MI posted VND 24,953 bn (+18% YoY) and VND 3,031 bn (+19% YoY), accomplishing 72% and 69% of our full-year forecast. Profit results trailed our forecasts mainly due to losses derived from newly invested businesses.
- Our current 2021F/22F forecasts and target price for FPT of VND 108,800 are under review.
OCB – On-going preparation for bad debt formation
25-10-2021
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: Tam Pham
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- Q3 credit growth was robust while deposit growth slowed down. The bank expected a new credit quota in the fourth quarter of over 20%, in comparison to 10% currently.
- Q3 PBT posted VND 1,107 billion (USD 48 mn, +71% YoY), mainly driven by growth of interest income (+25% YoY) and realizing profit from government bonds (+400% YoY).
- The provision buffer just improved slightly. However, we saw a positive signal that the bank is preparing provision buffer for the lag in bad debt and structured debt formation, which will surge in Q4.
- We appreciate changes in asset quality the bank is making to face the coming rising bad debts. In 2022 and midterm, we believe NIM will sustain at a level higher than 4% due to the lower funding costs of valuable paper. That coupling with the high credit growth, the high secured loan ratio and the expanding non-interest income will give room for the bank to control credit costs while maintain high earnings growth. As a result, earnings forecast of 2021 and 2022 are unchanged at VND 5,513 bn (USD 240 mn, +25% YoY) and VND 7,115 bn (USD 309 mn, +29% YoY). Our target price for OCB is kept at VND 32,100/share. This translates to an upside of 19% from the closing price of October 25th, 2021 and an ACCUMULATE recommendation. The stock has outperformed the sector in recent sessions thanks to its Q3 earnings growth higher than the sector.
HTN – Aggressive capital raising plan for sustaining its growth
22-10-2021
: HTN
: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
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- For 1H 2021, HTN recorded net revenue of VND 2,856 bn (or USD 125 mn, +67% YoY) and NPAT of more than VND 120 bn (or USD 5 mn, +4% YoY). The handover of Lavita Charm and Q7 Boulevard were the main contributors. The total backlog at end of 9M 2021 was VND 35,000 Bn (or USD 1.5 bn). In Q3, HTN signed a new contract with a value of VND 1,500 bn in the An Vien project (Nha Trang).
- Projected 2021F/22F NPAT stays at VND225bn (-35% YoY)/ VND498bn (+122% YoY), equivalent to a 2021F/22F EPS of VND 4,370/VND 4,332. It is worth noting that we have factored the dilution effect from HTN aforementioned capital raising plan. We increase our TP to VND65,000 per share with ACCUMULATE recommendation, implying a 10% upside from the closing price of Oct 22nd by adjusting the target PE of 16.4x and PB of 2.4x. HTN has a strong advantage from HTLand large project value of VND 95,000 bn (or USD 4.2 bn) during 2022-2026 and better operational performance with outperformed gross margin versus local contractors
PNJ – Q3-2021 Business Results Update: Profit Bottomed Out in August
22-10-2021
:
: Retailing
: Tung Do
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- PNJ posted September results with retail sales picking up 61% from last month’s level as social distancing eased up, supporting the slight improvement in bottom line.
- Product mix changes toward low-margin products and limited room for costs cutting have weighed on profit margins, but we expect profit margins will further recover in October following HCMC’s stores reopening.
- Current forecasts and target price of VND 98,000 are under review.
HND – High mobilization rate
21-10-2021
: HND
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
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- Volume in 3Q2021 was roughly 1.7 bn kWh, +23% YoY thanks to lower La Nina magnitude compared to 3Q2020 and -8% QoQ because 3Q2021 was the rainy season.
- Revenue in 3Q2021 was VND 2,195 bn (or USD 95 mn) -4%YoY and -16% QoQ. This steeper decline compared to volume is because of the lower contract volume and contract price. NPAT in 3Q2021 was VND 6 bn (or USD 0.26 mn), -96% YoY and -97% QoQ.
- The company’s performance is expected to be better in 4Q2021 thanks to the dry season and high Qc. HND is going to recover in line with the thermal plant recovery in 2022. Our target price for HND is VND 22,300 with cash dividends of VND 400 in the next 12 months, this stock offers an upside of 25% compared to the closing price on Oct 21st, 2021, we recommend to BUY this stock.
GSP – Core earnings to growth thanks to new vessels
20-10-2021
: GSP
: Transportation, Logistics
: Vu Tran
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- Leading company in the LPG segment in Vietnam beside Nhat Viet.
- Belonging to PVN’s group is a benefit.
- New vessels will push earnings from 2022 but EPS will be diluted after issuing more shares.
- Expected stable cash dividend of VND1,300 - VND1,500 ~ dividend yield of 8.2% - 9.5% at this current market price.
- P/E TTM is 9.1x and P/B TTM is 0.9x.
SCS – Q3 2021 Business Results Preview: Higher ASP to compensate cargo volume decline induced by disrupted trading activities
19-10-2021
: SCS
: Logistics, Non-aviation Services
: Tung Do
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- Estimated Q3-2021 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND172Bn (+3% YoY)/VND121bn (+6% YoY). Cumulative 9M-2021 revenue/NPAT have completed 75%/77% of our full-year forecast.
- Affected by the strict social distancing, the int’l cargo volume in Q3-2021 declined by -6% YoY and -20% QoQ to 36 thousand tons. However, the surge in blended ASP (int’l and domestic) of 21% YoY to VND3.6 mn, given higher contribution of int’l cargo of 82% (vs 74% in Q3-2020) and more pharmaceutical imports in the cargo mix, compensate the int’l cargo decline, helping revenue inch up by 3% YoY.
- While COGS declined by -4% YoY and -16% QoQ, relatively in line with cargo throughput volume, administration expenses were strictly managed with a -3% YoY/ -13% QoQ reduction. These helped expand GPM/net margin by 149 bps YoY/201bps YoY in Q3-2021, primarily supporting bottom line growth rate.
- Projected 2021F/22F NPAT stay at VND530 (+14% YoY)/ VND602bn (+13% YoY), equivalent to 2021F/22F EPS of VND 9,087/ VND 10,461. We maintain TP of SCS at VND155,000 per share, implying 2021F/22F P/E of 15.9x/13.9x.
Trade remained weak in Sep 2021
18-10-2021
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: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
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- Trade remained weak in Sep due to the impact of Covid-19 restrictions.
- Uneven export growth across key markets.
- The import slowdown may weigh on the manufacturing and export outlook.
Asian currencies are all over the place!
15-10-2021
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: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
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FMC – September revenue recovered strongly as expected
14-10-2021
: FMC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
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