- 1H-FY21 preliminary revenue was VND 4,136 Bn (or USD 180 Mn, +25% YoY), fulfilling 48% of VHC’s guidance and 46% of our full-year revenue forecast, mainly driven by the recovery of fillet export revenue in major markets, especially the US. VHC has not revealed 2Q-FY21 earnings but we are concerned that raw materials prices and logistics costs will erode the bottom line. In 2Q-FY21, we forecast VHC’s NPAT at VND 165 Bn (or USD 7 Mn, -23% YoY) due to the contraction of GPM and NPM by 83bps YoY and 619bps YoY, respectively.
- Looking ahead to 2H-FY21, we expect that the US market will continue leading the fillet revenue increase but operating costs will still put pressure on the profit margin. In FY2021, we estimate VHC’s revenue at VND 8,970 Bn (or USD 390 Mn, +27% YoY) and NPAT at VND 620 bn (or USD 27 Mn, -12% YoY).
- We lower our target price by 3% to VND 45,000/share to reflect our concern about cost headwinds. Besides, large CAPEX will result in a negative cash flow in 2021. With an expected cash dividend in the next 12 months of VND 1,000/share, the total return will reach 18% based on the closing price of July 16th. We recommend to ACCUMULATE
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