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HND – Better performance thanks to high volume in the dry season

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image20-07-2021
: HND
: Utilities
: Nguyen Ngoc Thao
Tags:

  • Volume in 2Q2021 reached 1,9 billion kWh, nearly equal to that in 2Q2020, completing 95% of the company’s plan thanks to the dry season and several heat waves in the North.
  • Revenue in 2Q2021 was VND 2,624 billion (or USD 113 million) +32% QoQ and -16% YoY and NPAT was VND 188 billion (or USD 8 million), -66% YoY because of a decline in the selling price. Accordingly, 1H2021 NPAT reached VND 177 billion (or USD 7,7 million), -76% YoY, completing 89% of the 2021 PBT’s target.
  •   The company will have machine maintenance for 62 days in 3Q2021. Profit is going to be impacted. Afterward, the outlook is expected to be better with high Qc in 4Q2021 and efficient operation after the maintenance. We maintain our target price for HND at VND 17,900, an upside of 7% compared to the closing price on July20th, thus we recommend to accumulate this stock.  

 

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Growth trajectory faces risks due to the latest outbreak

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image19-07-2021
:
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:

  • Strict movement restrictions have been imposed to break transmission.
  • The economic damage from the latest outbreak.
  • Growth trajectory faces risks.

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VHC - 1H-FY21: Strong revenue growth driven by exports to the US

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image16-07-2021
: VHC
: Fishery
: Loan Nguyen
Tags:

  • 1H-FY21 preliminary revenue was VND 4,136 Bn (or USD 180 Mn, +25% YoY), fulfilling 48% of VHC’s guidance and 46% of our full-year revenue forecast, mainly driven by the recovery of fillet export revenue in major markets, especially the US. VHC has not revealed 2Q-FY21 earnings but we are concerned that raw materials prices and logistics costs will erode the bottom line. In 2Q-FY21, we forecast VHC’s NPAT at VND 165 Bn (or USD 7 Mn, -23% YoY) due to the contraction of GPM and NPM by 83bps YoY and 619bps YoY, respectively.
  • Looking ahead to 2H-FY21, we expect that the US market will continue leading the fillet revenue increase but operating costs will still put pressure on the profit margin. In FY2021, we estimate VHC’s revenue at VND 8,970 Bn (or USD 390 Mn, +27% YoY) and NPAT at VND 620 bn (or USD 27 Mn, -12% YoY).
  • We lower our target price by 3% to VND 45,000/share to reflect our concern about cost headwinds. Besides, large CAPEX will result in a negative cash flow in 2021. With an expected cash dividend in the next 12 months of VND 1,000/share, the total return will reach 18% based on the closing price of July 16th. We recommend to ACCUMULATE

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European Central Bank (ECB) strategy review

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image15-07-2021
:
: Macroeconomics
: Bernard Lapointe
Tags:

  • On July 8, the ECB presented an action plan to include climate change considerations in its monetary policy.
  • It also removed the 2% ceiling from its inflation target, allowing price rises to temporarily overshoot.

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SCS – Q2 2021 Business Results Preview: Cargo throughput volume in line with expectations

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image14-07-2021
: SCS
: Non-aviation Services, Logistics
: Tung Do
Tags:

  • Estimated Q2-2021 revenue/NPAT amounted to VND212Bn (+47% YoY)/VND150bn (+51% YoY) on the back of resilient international air freight volume throughput and the low base effect. Cumulative 1H-2021 revenue and NPAT have both completed 54% of our full-year forecast.
  • We remain positive on SCS based on (1) its proven track record of resilient int’l volume amid recent lockdown in HCMC and int’l passenger flight cuts, (2) bright long-term prospects for EX-IM cargo volume, mostly driven by outbound cargo, owing to recovered demand from key trading economies given upcoming massive vaccine roll-out. We maintain our projection for 2021F/22F NPAT of VND529bn (+14% YoY)/VND590bn (+12% YoY).
  • We raise our TP for SCS from VND141,400 per share to VND145,500 per share as we roll forward our valuation to the mid-2022 forecast, maintaining an ACCUMULATE recommendation.

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BFC - Fierce competition to put pressure on gross margin in 2Q2021

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image13-07-2021
: BFC
: Chemicals, Fertilizer
: Vu Tran
Tags:

  • Higher input material price but low selling price to put pressure on gross margin in 2Q2021. Revenue and NPATMI are estimated at VND 1,858 bn (+9.4%YoY) and VND 31bn (-41% YoY), respectively.
  • Working capital improvement to cut financial expenses. Selling expenses are expected to be stable in 2021.
  • In 2021, revenue and NPATMI are projected at VND 6,809 bn (+25.7%YoY) and VND 168bn (+26.3% YoY), respectively. At this price, P/E forward is around 9.5x – high compared to its 3-year average. So we recommend REDUCE with a target price of VND 23,300.

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GVR – Converting rubber land to industrial parks to create growth

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image12-07-2021
: GVR
: Chemicals, Real Estate
: Others
Tags:

  • Rubber, wood processing, rubber products and industrial parks are the main businesses of Vietnam Rubber Group.
  • The results of the rubber segment have not been positive for the last couple of years, while the demand for renting industrial land has been constantly increasing. Therefore, GVR plans to convert rubber land to industrial parks. The Group owns a huge land bank located in the provinces and cities that are the production centers of Thus, it is expected that the leasing price and rental rate will be higher than other industrial parks, helping to improve results.

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Update on HDG 6M 2021 – Energy sector stayed strong

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image09-07-2021
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: Real Estate
: Tran Hoang The Kiet
Tags:

  • 6M 2021 preliminary performance: Per management, HDG estimated its 6M 2021 revenue and NPAT of VND 1,765 Bn (-39% YoY) and VND 549 Bn (-22% YoY), completing 36% of revenue and 44% of net profit target. The lower performance was mainly caused by the real estate sector (-56% YoY) as HDG delivered fewer units of Hado Centrosa in 6M 2021 versus the same period last year.
  • Real estate: This segment recorded revenue of VND 932 Bn (-56% YoY) from delivering 210 units at Hado Centrosa. For 2H 2021, management expects to record revenue of VND 200 Bn from 31 remaining units and VND 1,500 – VND 1,900 Bn revenue from Hado Charm Villas. HDG also expects to launch the sale of 221 units in Charm Villas and 35 units of CC1 in 2H 2021.
  • Energy: The energy segment experienced a solid performance with revenue of VND 557 Bn (+63% YoY) thanks to the stable operation of existing hydro power plants given the favorable weather condition in 6M 2021. Power plants including Dak Mi 2, Song Tranh 4 and 7A Thuan Nam are expected to come online in Q3/2021 and generate revenue of VND 220 Bn.

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Facts about rising global food prices

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image08-07-2021
:
:
: Bernard Lapointe
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KSB – Waiting for strong growth from construction stone and industrial park segments

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image07-07-2021
: KSB
: Materials
: Tu Pham
Tags:

  • Estimated 1H2021 revenue and PBT respectively came at VND 580 billion (-16% YoY) and VND 160 billion (-20% YoY), completing 48% of the revenue target and 46% PBT target.
  • KSB has applied for a new license for the Tam Lap quarry phase 1 and expects to be approved in 3Q2021. This quarry can provide 1.2-1.4 million m3 of stone in 2022.
  • KSB has compensated roughly 20% of Dat Cuoc Industrial Park – Phase II land area and expects to lease Phase II land from 2022.

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Investment-linked Plan – Market conditions support growth

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image06-07-2021
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: Insurance
: Tam Pham
Tags:

  • Life insurers have accelerated the sales of ILPs in 2017-2019 period amid the low interest rate environment and the relaxed regulations.

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GMD 2021 AGM Note: Upbeat results from key terminals

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image05-07-2021
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: Logistics
: Tung Do
Tags:

  • The AGM approved 2021 business guidance with PBT is targeted to grow at least by 23% YoY and raised cash dividend per share by 20% to VND1,200.
  • New scheme for ESPP over 2021-25 vs the previous one over 2014-18.
  • We are pending a comprehensive review on GMD as preliminary Q2-2021 business results are better-than-expected. Thus, the current target price of VND 43,600 is under review.

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