MSN – Solid steps to develop the Point of Life consumer ecosystem

• We view that Alibaba investment in The CrownX is a long-term key addition for VinCommerce’s business model to build a leading online grocery platform, thanks to massive growth potential of online grocery in Vietnam and the co-operation with Alibaba to promote faster the completion of online platform.
• Phuc Long Kiosk, strategic collaboration model between Masan Group and Phuc Long, to transform The CrownX into a one-stop shop concept.
• In FY2021, we estimate Masan Group to reach VND 95,938 Bn revenue (+24% YoY) and VND 2,010 Bn NPAT post-MI (+63% YoY). Strong earning recovery of Masan Group is backed by +17% NPAT growth of Masan Consumer and +43% YoY NPAT growth of Masan MEATLife, while VinCommerce will record smaller net loss after tax. We recommend BUY for MSN share at our target price (TP) of VND 136,000, equivalent to expected return of 27% from Jun 01^st 2021 market price.

Real estate update for Binh Tan District, HCMC

• Binh Tan District has promising prospects given its large area, crowded population, and strategic location in the west of Ho Chi Minh City.
• We consider Binh Tan as a potential real estate market based on four main pillars: the apartment price is still lower than other districts, dense population leads to great demand for real estate, large land bank for residential development, and infrastructure is being developed rapidly (Aeon Mall Binh Tan, Metro 3A, Metro 6, etc.)
• Prestigious real estate developers such as Khang Dien, Nam Long, Hung Thinh are actively focusing on the Binh Tan market with many projects, namely Khang Dien Binh Tan, Khang Dien Tan Tao, Akari City, etc.

MWG 4M-2021 Results: Last year’s low base supported growth rate

• TGDD & DMX accumulated revenue of approx. VND32.4Tn (USD1.4Bn), posting 4% YoY mainly on the back of low comparative base in last year’s April when social distancing order hit its physical stores.
• BHX accumulated revenue maintained its robust growth of 31% YoY, owing to significant contribution from mid-2020 new stores. Estimated sales per store in April improved by 7% MoM to VND1.2Bn (USD52,000).
• 15-day of social distancing in HCMC, which requires closure of electronics stores, will definitely hurt TGDD and DMX sales but we believe the magnitude will not be as severe as last year’s April.
• Ongoing pandemic wave induced by rapidly-spread Covid variant poses larger-than-expected downside risk to our forecast. While current forecasts and the TP of VND 184,000 are under review for this risk, upside potential, in our view, from BHX’s labor productivity enhancement initiative will be the noteworthy catalyst going forward.

HSG – Positive export activities in 2H/FY2020-2021

HSG’s export activities are likely to be more positive as the company has enough orders for production until September. Export gross margins could be stable in 3Q/FY2020-2021 as HRC prices are still in an uptrend in Europe and the US, which maintain a large gap with prices in Vietnam. In domestic market, steel prices have increased at a higher pace compared to 2Q/FY2020-2021. This can affect positively to HSG’s gross margin. We forecast that HSG will earn roughly VND 1,400 billion in 3Q and roughly VND 3,550 billion for the whole year, increasing by 210% YoY. We recommend investors Accumulate this stock with a target price of VND 46,000/share.

DPM – Probably an outstanding growth in 2Q performance

• Not much growth momentum in the long term but DPM can maintain a stable cash dividend of around VND1,000/share, equivalent to a dividend yield of 5.3% at the closing price on May 26, 2021. The target price one year out is VND26,100/share. Cash dividend is expected to be VND 1,700/share in the next 12 months. Upside of 48%, corresponding to a BUY.

US Interest Rate Watch: Is Fed "Tapering" Imminent?

US Interest Rate Watch: Is Fed "Tapering" Imminent?

The economic recovery could be negatively affected by the latest outbreak

• The latest Covid-19 resurgence is the most serious wave.
• The vital role of Bac Ninh and Bac Giang’s industrial zones.
• The economic recovery could be negatively affected by the latest outbreak.

VHC - Profitability in FY21 to face cost headwinds

• We expect that FY21 revenue will grow by 28% YoY on the back of FY20 low base thanks to the recovery of export volume in major export markets and higher revenue contribution of collagen & gelatin segment. However, high raw materials prices and logistics costs will erode profit.
• FY2021 estimated revenue and NPAT to achieve VND 9,014 Bn (or USD 392 Mn, +28% YoY) and VND 634 Bn (or USD 28 Mn, -9% YoY) respectively, completing 105% revenue target and 91% NPAT target.
• VHC plans to implement large projects to reduce costs and expand product portfolio in the long run. However, those projects are in the building and testing phase and will not bring revenue to VHC in FY21. We are going to reflect the effects of the new projects on our stock valuation in the upcoming reports.
• We maintain a target price of VND 46,200/share. With an expected cash dividend in the next 12 months of VND 1,000/share, the total return will reach 17% based on the closing price of May 21, 2021. We recommend to ACCUMULATE

ACB – Robust income growth supported by CIR improvement

• Better-than-expected income growth led by allocation of upfront fees and NIM expansion.
• Bad debt formation increased significantly in 1Q2021, dragging credit costs. We forecast that NPL will be controlled towards the year end, and credit costs will be slightly lower.
• The negative surprise in provision was offset by CIR improvement as base effect and provision reversal.
• We revise up our a target price by 2.6% to VND 43,500/share. This implies an upside of 16% from the closing price of May 21 2021, and therefore translates to an ACCUMULATE

NVL Q1-2021 AM Note

• 1Q 2021 performance: Skyrocketing revenue and NPAT results with triple digit growth backed by the handover of 709 units mainly in Saigon Royal, Aqua City, Novahills Mui Ne, Novaworld Phan Thiet, Sunrise City View.
• 2021 Outlook: Management expects to achieve revenue of VND 27,678 Bn (+451% YoY) and NPAT of VND 4,106 Bn (+6% YoY) in 2021 from the handover of both HCMC and satellite regions (50/50 revenue contribution). The possible divestment/revaluation is not factored yet on the aforementioned profit plan. After completing a buying back it issued convertible bonds (“CBs”) in 2018 (value at USD 240 Mn), NVL is working with advisors to issue CBs with a value of more than USD 240 Mn (estimated amount at ~USD 300 Mn, finalized amount will be public in June 2021).
• From our point of view, 2021- 2024 should be a strong profit year. The catalysts include (1) Strong pre-sale and handover of three hospitality projects in satellite regions, (2) Less strict legal issues given the effectiveness of several laws/decrees from 2021 to accelerate profit recognition in HCMC projects, (3) Ramp-up progress of nearby public infrastructures to support NVL’s projects price and absorption rate. We have an OBSERVE suggestion on this stock as the price has partly reflected the (1) Solid Q1 2021 pre-sale and delivery performance, (2) Buy back news of its CBs issued in 2018. The next expectation would come from the progress of its new CBs issuance and revenue recognition of HCMC projects along with the sale performance of hospitality projects.

NKG – NPAT to grow strongly due to increasing steel price, accumulated inventory, and strong demand

We expect NKG can earn the highest quarterly NPAT ever in 2Q owing to strong demand overseas, increasing hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices, and its higher inventory. We forecast that the company’s revenue and NPAT will reach VND 6,113 billion and VND 503 billion in 2Q, increasing by 164% YoY and 2,806% YoY respectively. For 2H2021, HRC price’s outlook is better than our expectations as prices for HRC delivered in 3Q are more than USD 1,000 /ton. The company’s NPAT in 3Q will be roughly VND 230 billion, significantly higher compared to previous years. Based on EPS forward in of VND 5,800, we recommend investors to Hold this stock with a target price of roughly VND 37,000/share.