14-10-2025VNINDEX1774.028.900.50% HNXIndex276.280.930.34% UPCOM112.870.170.15% VN302028.4716.190.80% VN1001949.0313.380.69% HNX30606.831.700.28% VNXALL3053.0919.150.63% VNX503379.2226.430.79% VNMID2528.19.440.37% VNSML1573.55-10.80-0.68% Monetary Market Update August 2025: Balancing between monetary easing and FX stability
25-08-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- In August 2025, the SBV continued to support system liquidity, with outstanding collateralized lending peaking in mid-August before gradually declining thereafter.
- At the same time, banking system liquidity showed signs of stress in the first half of August and gradually eased afterward. As of August 22, the overnight VND lending rate had fallen to around 4.8%, still about 50 basis points higher than the USD overnight lending rate.
- Two notable policy developments during the month were: (1) Circular 23/2025, which allows a 50% reduction in required reserves for credit institutions that take over or provide support to weak banks, effective from October 1, 2025; and (2) the Government’s directive for the SBV to formulate a roadmap to pilot the removal of credit growth limits starting in 2026. Essentially, Circular 23 operationalizes provisions in the 2024 Law on Credit Institutions regarding the benefits granted to commercial banks undertaking compulsory acquisitions of weak banks (including VCB, MBB, VPB, and HDB), with the expectation of freeing up additional resources to restructure the so-called “zero-dong” banks.
- Following the SBV’s gradual increases in the central exchange rate in the previous month, market exchange rates rose more sharply in August, up 0.4–0.6% compared to the prior month. At one point on August 21, VCB’s selling rate even touched the upper bound of the trading band, before the SBV intervened by selling FX on a forward basis.
- In our view, the VND-USD interest rate differential and DXY fluctuations are not the main sources of exchange rate pressure at present. Instead, pressure on the dong stems not only from rising USD demand, but also from expectations of dollar hoarding in the context of the SBV’s ongoing monetary easing aimed at supporting growth.
Fertilizer industry – Q2/2025 business results are outstanding and 2H2025 is expected to grow strongly
22-08-2025
: DCM, DPM, BFC
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The Q2/2025 business results of fertilizer enterprises all recorded growth in revenue with the Urea, NPK, and DAP segments outperforming phosphate fertilizers. However, NPAT-MI has a differentiation from DAP>Phosphorus>Urea>NPK fertilizer enterprises mainly due to the growth of selling prices of DAP, Phosphorus>Urea and NPK fertilizers.
- Urea selling prices have grown while input prices have decreased mainly due to the influence of world selling prices. World selling prices have increased recently due to the following events:
- In June 2025, the Iran-Israel conflict disrupted Egypt's Urea supply chain, limiting regional supplies.
- After the conflict cooled down in August, the United States imposed reciprocal tariffs on urea fertilizer imports, which increased the price of urea in the United States, indirectly putting pressure on urea prices in the Middle East to increase.
- At the same time in August, India increased imports at high prices to help maintain the peak season in July-August accompanied by favorable weather conditions
- The selling price of phosphate fertilizer and DAP increased mainly due to the sharp increase in the cost of pushing from the price of raw materials, sulfuric acid.
- In 2H2025, we expect revenue to increase thanks to the growth in production and selling prices of fertilizers.
- The average selling price in 2H2025 of Urea fertilizer is expected to reach 13,000 VND/kg (+30% YoY), NPK price will reach 13,500 VND/kg (+10% YoY) and DAP price will reach 18,000 VND/kg (+30% YoY).
- Urea production increased thanks to exports to markets while domestic growth slowed down. NPK production increased due to stable demand from industrial crops as well as DCM's new marketing strategy and increased capacity from DPM. Imported fertilizer production also grew strongly thanks to high selling prices.
- In 2H2025, the gross profit margin of Urea fertilizer businesses is expected to grow more strongly than that of enterprises in the field of DAP and NPK fertilizers. The reason is that the selling price of Urea has increased while the cost of input materials, which is gas prices, tends to decrease. Meanwhile, for DAP fertilizer, although the selling price tends to increase, the cost of input materials such as sulfuric acid also increases accordingly, thereby limiting the ability to improve profit margins.
OCB – Non-interest income expansion supports profit growth
21-08-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: OCB
- OCB’s Q2/2025 business results recorded positive growth, with key highlights including (1) Non-interest income expansion driven by fee income growth (notably, banca activities posted a solid recovery while corporate advisory activities grew strongly) and stronger off-balance-sheet bad debt recoveries, (2) Asset quality improvement as net formation of NPLs declined significantly and NPL coverage ratio was strengthened. However, credit activities showed no clear improvement as credit growth in 1H2025 was below the sector average (9.9% YTD) and NIM continued to narrow.
- For full-year 2025, we believe that OCB is unlikely to achieve its PBT target set earlier this year (over VND 5.3 trillion, equivalent to +33% YoY). However, PBT is still projected to post a positive growth of 14% YoY, supported by (1) 20% credit growth and (2) a strong 38% YoY expansion in non-interest income, mainly driven by fee income and bad debt recoveries.
- We are reassessing our valuation for OCB’s stock and will provide an update in the upcoming report.
VCB – Positive Profit Growth Outlook with Clear Drivers for NIM Improvement
20-08-2025
: VCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: Banks Private Placement Business Update
- VCB reported a PBT of VND 11.0 trillion in 2Q25, reflecting a +9% YoY and +2% QoQ increase, in line with expectations of VND 11.2 trillion. For the first half of 2025, PBT reached VND 21.9 trillion (+5% YoY), achieving 47% of the full-year forecast..
- The PBT growth in 2Q25 was primarily driven by a significant increase in income from the recovery of written-off bad debts (+560% YoY), FX trading income (+41% YoY), and a 48% YoY reduction in credit risk provisioning expenses. However, core net interest income remained flat due to NIM pressure, which contracted by 40 basis points (bps) YoY.
- ROAE slightly declined to 17.5% in 2Q25 (1Q25: 17.9%), marking the fourth consecutive quarter below 20%, reflecting slower profit growth. Book value per share (BVPS) stood at VND 25,600, corresponding to a current price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.51x.
- Business outlook highlights: VCB maintains its 16.3% credit growth target for 2025 and anticipates NIM improvement, driven by confidence in expanding its retail loan portfolio and increasing the proportion of medium- and long-term loans. The bank aims to enhance profit growth to restore ROAE to the 18-20% target range. The planned private placement to raise capital, initially targeted for potential completion by year-end, is now expected to be finalized next year.
- VCB’s one-year target price is set at VND 73,000 per share, based on projected PBT of VND 46.2 trillion (+9% YoY) for 2025F and VND 51.7 trillion (+2% YoY) for 2026F. Updated valuations and forecasts will be provided in subsequent reports.
PVT – Q2 2025 Results: Strong revenue growth, earnings pressured by weak freight rates and higher costs
19-08-2025
: PVT
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- PVT posted strong Q2/2025 revenue growth of +46% YoY to VND4.4tn, while NPAT-MI declined slightly by 2% YoY to VND294bn, as gross margin contracted 10ppt due to weaker international freight rates and higher depreciation.
- For 1H/2025, revenue reached VND7.1tn (+29% YoY) and NPAT-MI VND509bn (-2% YoY), fulfilling 69% and 74% of full-year targets. Gross margin dropped to 15.3%, weighed by softer freight rates and a 115% YoY surge in outsourcing costs.
- Domestic crude oil and LPG segments remain the stable pillars, supported by long-term contracts with BSR and KDK that ensure resilient volumes and margins. Meanwhile, oil product, chemical, and dry bulk segments face oversupply pressure and depressed freight rates.
- As of mid-2025, PVT has added three new vessels (Phoenix Gas, PVT Fortune, PVT Emerald), bringing total fleet to 61. The company also adopted a more cautious capex plan (~USD70mn) and is restructuring subsidiaries’ ownership to share risks while maintaining safe leverage at ~1.0x D/E.
SAB – Leveraging low material costs, the spotlight on special consumption tax (SCT)
18-08-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q2-2025, SAB’s results were gloomy with net revenue of VND 6,804 bn (+17.1% QoQ, -15.9% YoY), NPAT-MI reached VND 1,208 bn (+52.2% QoQ, -3.3% YoY), due to the impact of special consumption tax costs after the merger of Sabibeco (UpCOM: SBB) and declining competitiveness with rival Heneiken.
- A bright spot in SAB’s otherwise subdued Q2 performance was the reduction in input costs. The company had fully consumed its higher-cost raw material inventory in 2024, and starting in 2025, input prices have returned to average levels.
- With SAB’s business outlook entering a saturation phase post-COVID and the looming impact of a sharp increase in special consumption taxes, the key investment highlight lies in its steadily rising cash dividend payouts. SAB has gradually increased its dividend payout ratio since the post-COVID period—when the beer industry began to show signs of stagnation—ranging from 60% to 120%. Dividends are funded by the company’s annual net profit and a sizable retained earnings balance of approximately VND 9,200 bn.
- SAB is well-suited for dividend-focused investment strategies, offering a dividend yield of 10.4% per annum. It also appeals to value-oriented investors seeking opportunities in undervalued stocks following sharp market corrections—particularly as SAB’s market price gradually approaches its fair value of VND 48,000 per share, which already reflects the anticipated headwinds in 2025.
Trade Update August 2025: From “China + 1” to Parallel Supply Chains for China and the US?
15-08-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Vietnam’s trade growth in July 2025 remained strong; however, a key point is the divergence in growth between the FDI and domestic enterprise sectors. Exports by domestic enterprises recorded their third consecutive month of negative growth.
- Exports to the US market remained relatively resilient but showed divergence across product groups, with strong growth in electronics and a gradual slowdown in seafood, textiles, and wooden products. Exports to China surged unusually in July, largely due to a low base in the same period last year, while Chinese consumer demand has not shown a clear improvement.
- In the first half of 2025, the US-China trade flows shifted significantly under the impact of tariff policies. China’s exports to the US dropped sharply, offset by stronger exports to other markets (ASEAN, Europe, South Korea, etc.). Meanwhile, the US reduced imports from China but increased purchases from ASEAN, the EU, India, and others. The US imports showed no growth in Q2 2025, but imports from ASEAN continued to post solid increases.
- Vietnam’s exports to the US have performed well, with the Vietnam-US trade surplus hitting a new record in July 2025.
- With the new reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US taking effect from August 7, trade performance in the remaining months of 2025 could turn less favorable as the front-loading effect of export orders fades.
- The latest US tariff measures also pose a challenge to the “China + 1” model, as the Trump administration has increased tariffs not only on China but also on most key manufacturing economies in Asia. As a result, multinational corporations may need to move beyond the “China + 1” approach toward a more complex supply chain structure that ensures parallel access to both China-centered and US-centered markets.
SCS – Fairly positive results despite revenue and NPAT growth deceleration in Q2-FY25
14-08-2025
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- SCS is trading at a TTM P/E and TTM EV/EBITDA of 9.0x and 6.9x, respectively, which are 34%/38% lower than the 5-year historical average and 80%/50% lower than the industry median. We recommend BUY based on the expectation that SCS could participate in Cargo Terminal No. 1 at Long Thanh Airport and that its shares will be re-rated.
- NPAT reached VND 189 billion (+11% QoQ and flat YoY). SCS maintained double-digit revenue growth while NPAT remained flat due to the expiration of its corporate income tax (CIT) incentives (a 20% tax rate applied from 2025 after a 50% reduction for nine years). We assess that the core business operations still delivered relatively positive results.
- Most of the profitability indicators remained stable at high levels in Q2-FY25. The gross margin showed little fluctuation, reaching 80% (-1.1 pps QoQ and -0.6 pps YoY). SG&A expenses/revenue remained low at 5.2% (-0.4 pps QoQ and +0.1 pps YoY). The net margin was 64.8% (+1 pps QoQ and -7 pps YoY). The narrowing of the net margin was due to the expiration of CIT incentives as mentioned above.
Real Estate Market 6M2025 – On the recovery momentum
13-08-2025
: NLG, KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Real estate RE_Market
- In the second quarter of 2025, the apartment market in Ho Chi Minh City continues to record a recovery in supply and absorption rate, showing that demand is still positive. Meanwhile, the Hanoi market recorded a decrease in absorption rate, as new open supply continued to focus on the high-end and luxury segments.
- Primary selling prices continue to maintain an upward momentum, the Ho Chi Minh City market reached an average of 82 million VND/m² in the second quarter of 2025 (+6.4% QoQ), while the Hanoi market recorded a price of about 79 million VND/m² (+5% QoQ), reflecting a slowdown after a prolonged period of warming. We believe that the upward trend in both the primary and secondary markets will remain in the second half of 2025, but growth will slow down.
- We expect the recovery of the market to continue to become clear with the support of a series of new legal policies and mechanisms: 1/ Pilot commercial housing development through the mechanism of land use right agreements, 2/ Accelerate the progress of infrastructure investment in localities related to administrative mergers.
POW – Q2/2025 Business result surpass expectation despite flat output
12-08-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In 2Q25, POW’s revenue was nearly flat, while net profit – minority interest (NPAT-MI) rose 47% YoY.
- Total power output fell 3% YoY, with gas-fired plants down 12% YoY, offset by coal-fired and hydropower plants rising 4% and 52% YoY, respectively.
- Average selling price increased 3% YoY, in contrast to the market-wide electricity price (FMP) which dropped 28% YoY, thanks to contracted output (Qc) surging 39% YoY.
- Higher selling prices and stable fuel costs drove gross margin up 5 pps YoY to 12.8%.
KBC - Accumulate for future growth
11-08-2025
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: KBC
- In the first half of 2025 (1H2025), KBC recorded positive results, with revenue and gross profit reaching VND 3.7 trillion (+254% YoY) and VND 1.8 trillion (+234% YoY), respectively. Land and infrastructure leasing in industrial parks (IPs) generated revenue of VND 2.8 trillion (+432% YoY), driven by the leasing of 86 hectares (+462% YoY), primarily from the Hung Yen Industrial Cluster (83 hectares).
- During the 2025-2026 period, in addition to developing IPs with previously approved investment policies, KBC plans to commence business operations for IPs that have recently received investment approval (Trang Due 03, Kim Thanh 2, and four newly approved IPs), increasing the total leasable land bank to approximately 3,000 hectares in the long term.
- For residential real estate projects, significant contributions to revenue growth potential in the coming years are expected from the Trang Cat Urban Area and The Trump International Hung Yen project.
MSB – Shrinking non-interest income and deteriorating asset quality
08-08-2025
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Parent bank’s PBT in Q2/2025 reached VND 1.5 trillion, down sharply by 31% YoY, mainly due to (1) a significant drop
in income from the recovery of written-off bad debts (-89% YoY) and (2) a 17% YoY increase in operating expenses.
Meanwhile, TNEX recorded a PBT of about VND 41 billion, showing robust growth YoY (in the whole year 2024, TNEX’s
PBT was only VND 5 billion). Consolidated PBT in 1H2025 reached nearly VND 3.2 trillion, down 14% YoY, completing
only 40% of the full-year target (VND 8 trillion).
- MSB’s Q2 and 1H2025 business results were generally less favorable YoY, mainly due to (1) a continued decline in NIM
driven by lending competition pressure, although partially supported by interest income reversals from the recovery
of on-balance-sheet bad debts, (2) deterioration in asset quality, mainly from an increase in NPLs in the retail segment,
and (3) a contraction in non-interest income (excluding fee income).
- For the profit outlook in 2H2025, we believe that the plan to recover a large amount of off-balance-sheet NPLs will
help support the expansion of TOI and enable the achievement of the full-year profit target. In addition, provisioning
expenses will likely be increased given the persisting risk of rising NPLs, particularly in the retail segment.
25-08-2025
168 
