14-10-2025VNINDEX1773.848.720.49% HNXIndex276.280.930.34% UPCOM112.870.170.15% VN302028.1815.900.79% VN1001948.7813.130.68% HNX30606.831.700.28% VNXALL3052.8818.940.62% VNX503378.7725.980.77% VNMID2528.249.580.38% VNSML1573.84-10.51-0.66% MWG – BHX's profit growth momentum surged following Q2-2025’s results
11-09-2025
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- MWG's Q2-2025 results surpassed our expectation by 18%, with net sales of VND 36,135 bn (+14.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,648 bn (+6.6% QoQ, +40.6% YoY), driven by significantly improved BHX profitability (net margin rose from 0.3% in Q1-2025 to 1.6% in Q2-2025) and accelerated financial investment activities (+38.0% YoY).
- MWG's stock profit potential lies in the “BHX northward expansion” strategy, which is gradually proving effective, unlocking profit growth from Q2-2025.
- We raise our short-term valuation based on 2025F result and the positive business outlook for the next year, targeting VND 87,100 per share (including a VND 1,000 cash dividend per share), using the SoTP method in the short term. Note that the long-term target price will be updated after a comprehensive assessment of the company’s long-term context.
- We increase our 2025F’s net profit forecast for MWG by 21%, reflecting a significantly more positive business environment compared to our latest forecast, driven by all three pillars: (1) TGDD & DMX, (2) BHX, and (3) financial investment activities.
PNJ – New Decree on gold trading activities: Unlocking opportunities amid transitional risks
10-09-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: PNJ Decree 232/2025/ND-/CP
- Decree 232/2025/ND-CP, issued on August 26, 2025, amends and supplements several provisions of Decree 24/2012/ND-CP in response to existing shortcomings in the market. This is considered both a necessary and appropriate move to “unlock” the gold market for more efficient operation, addressing input bottlenecks for jewelry manufacturers while maintaining the State’s supervisory role.
- PNJ is among the enterprises that meet the charter capital and other requirements under the regulation. We believe that the amendments under Decree 232 may not have an immediate impact on the company’s target and outlook in 2025 - 2026, but are expected to remove the long-standing bottleneck of raw gold supply in the long term, which is a key input risk.
- Input material risks are expected to be eased (reduced but not eliminated). Given the recent surge in gold prices to record highs alongside ongoing supply tightness, the next steps regarding licensing, import/export quotas, and effective enforcement will need close monitoring.
REE – Business results Q2/2025: hydropower, real estate shine
09-09-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2025, REE's parent company's revenue and profit after tax-minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 15% and 76% YoY, respectively, equivalent to 98%/134% of the analyst' forecast, and completed of 45%/51% of the company's plan
- The recovery in hydropower production (+48% YoY) and effective cost management helped the increase NPAT-MI of the entire energy segment by 143% YoY.
- The M&E segment’s NPAT-MI increased by 140% YoY, thanks to the contribution of the M&E contractor segment.
- The net profit of the real estate and office leasing segment increased by 40% YoY thanks to the recording of revenue from the transfer of apartments block and town house in The Light Square – Thai Binh project.
Vietnam bond market report Aug 2025 - G-bonds languish; corporate bonds stage a comeback
08-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- August auction allotment reached VND 11.465 tn, the lowest YTD and a steep drop versus July. 8M cumulative issuance: VND 238.714 tn (47.7% of the annual plan); 3Q through end-Aug: VND 37.3 tn (31.1% of the quarterly plan), confirming a clear slowdown in supply. The bid-to-offer ratio fell to 48.5% and the award rate to 24.1% (both YTD lows), sliding week after week since early August. Softer primary demand suggests VGBs are less competitive at current yields as they compete with accelerating private-sector lending into year-end.
- The State Treasury plans to call VND 81 tn in September, a large single-month target but the award ratio is unlikely to improve materially near term.
- Turnover re-accelerated in August to VND 389 tn (outright 76.3% - VND 297 tn; repo - VND 92 tn). Average daily value rose to VND 14 tn (+37.8% MoM), consistent with active portfolio rebalancing as yields trend higher.
- The market rebounded strongly in August with VND 47.713 tn issued (+47% MoM, −8.2% YoY) across 47 tranches; 8M cumulative: VND 318.041 tn (+39.8% YoY). Banks remained the anchor, printing at 5.3–5.9% p.a. for 2–3Y tenors; notable prints: OCB VND 4.8 tn and BAB VND 3.2 tn. In real estate, VHM stood out with VND 15 tn, 3.5-year tenor, 11% coupon.
- Early redemptions, maturities, and risk. Buybacks recovered to VND 39.782 tn (+150.3% YoY), largely from banks (notably Aug-2024 vintages) to manage duration and costs, leveraging lower funding rates to pave the way for new, lower-coupon issuance. The maturity wall eased after a YTD peak in August (VND 36 tn): September maturities are VND 17 tn. Property credit risk remains elevated: 10 developers disclosed delays in principal/coupon payments in August; notably, Hano-Vid extended 110 tranches worth >VND 5.2 tn to 2027.
- Activity cooled versus July’s high (VND 132.028 tn; VND 5.74 tn/day), with August turnover at VND 109.288 tn (−17.2% MoM).
MSH – Improving fundamentals, supported by strong profitability and attractive valuation
05-09-2025
: MSH
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: Textile & Garment MSH
- In Q2-FY25, MSH posted NPAT of VND 180bn (+96% YoY), well above our expectations, thanks to sustained high gross margins in the CMT segment, outperforming industry norms. This was driven by new Chinese customers onboarded since Q4-FY24.
- We believe MSH has re-rating potential given improving fundamentals and attractive valuation. The stock is trading at 7.6x fwd P/E and 5.6x fwd EV/EBITDA, which are 10%/20% below its 5-year historical average and 16%/13% below industry median, respectively. In addition, with a consistent dividend track record, we expect MSH to maintain a cash dividend of VND 2,500/share (7% yield based on closing price on Sep 04, 2025).
NLG – Profit margin is expected to expand thanks to the transfer of 15% of Izumi project shares
04-09-2025
: NLG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: NLG
- Nam Long recorded net revenue in 6 months of VND 2,064 billion (+352% YoY), NPAT-MI reached VND 208 billion (+209% YoY), thanks to handover at key projects such as Akari, Southgate and Nam Long Can Tho; gross profit margin recorded 43% in Q2/2025.
- Presales value in 1H2025 reached VND 3,334 billion, of which Q2 contributed up to VND 2,789 billion, led by Park Village (Waterpoint) subdivision and projects such as Can Tho, Akari, Mizuki, Izumi,...
- According to our estimates, Nam Long can record net revenue in 2025 of about VND 4,753 billion (-34% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,232 billion (up 1.3 times over the same period), in addition to the handover at key projects such as Waterpoint, Can Tho, Akari, also comes from financial revenue from the transfer of 15% of the Izumi project.
BMP - Q2 business results improved thanks to stable consumption, high selling prices and low input resin cost
03-09-2025
: BMP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- Q2/2025: Revenue improved thanks to high selling prices and stable consumption volume while profit margin continues to grow thanks to low input plastic prices.
- Accumulated net revenue and net profit in 6M/2025 reached VND 46,252 billion (+25.4% YoY, exceeding the plan by 5.9%) and VND 617 billion (+31.2% YoY, exceeding the plan by 24.1%, respectively).
- The price of PVC resin is anticipated to stay low in Q3 2025, supporting a strong profit margin and return on equity (ROE).
NT2 – Q2/2025 wholesale improvement of business result
29-08-2025
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2025, NT2's revenue decreased slightly (-5% YoY), while the company's NPAT-MI increased sharply by 167% YoY.
- NT2's quarterly gross profit margin reached 17.6% (+11.7 pps YoY) thanks to high contracted volume (Qc) (+21% YoY) exceeding actual production and stable gas fuel prices.
- In 2025, NT2 benefits from an unusually high alpha rate and Qc output exceeding actual production, but this trend is unlikely to last and may return to 85–90% from 1Q2026.
- In Q3, we expect the company's output to improve, thanks to hydrological conditions that limit the level of hydropower output mobilized in the quarter, creating room for growth for the gas-fired group.
Update on Q2-2025 Business Performance and Valuation of Banking Sector
28-08-2025
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, STB, HDB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- PBT in Q2-2025 of 27 listed banks reached nearly VND 89 trillion (+17% YoY), driven by credit growth, proactive bad debt recovery, and stable credit costs compared to the same period last year. For the first six months of 2025, PBT of these banks totaled VND 172 trillion, up 16% YoY, achieving 49% of the full-year 2025 PBT plan.
- Credit growth recorded a 10.0% YTD increase, marking a positive performance over the past five years and comparable to 2022 levels. This result fulfills approximately 62% of the initial credit growth target for the year. As of August 8, credit growth reached 10.2% YTD.
- Deposit growth of listed banks by the end of Q2-2025 reached 10.0%, aligning with credit growth after five quarters of lagging behind credit growth. Banks continued to promote mobilization through valuable papers channels (+25.0% YTD), increasing the proportion of valuable papers in the funding structure to 11.9% (compared to 10.3% in 2024 and 11.1% in Q1-2025), while deposit mobilization rose by 8.3% YTD.
- NIM industry-wide increased by 10 bps QoQ to 3.15%, though it remained nearly 40 bps lower than the same period last year. This development was supported by a clear improvement in the industry’s asset quality, with net formation of overdue loans (Group 2 and bad debts) significantly declining compared to previous quarters.
- Borrowers’ debt repayment capacity has shown broad-based positive improvement. The industry’s on-balance-sheet bad debt increased by only nearly VND 2 trillion compared to the previous quarter, and the industry-wide bad debt ratio decreased by 12 bps QoQ to 2.04%.
- The banking sector’s trading index surged in July and August (as of August 27) with gains of 11% and 18%, respectively, driving a YTD increase of 40%. The industry’s P/B valuation reached 1.83x, the highest in three years and above the five-year average of 1.71x, largely driven by the revaluation process of joint-stock commercial banks.
China macro in July 2025 showed weakness across all three growth pillars
28-08-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: China
- Consumption remains soft and stimulus effects are fading. Retail sales rose 3.7% YoY and fell 0.14% MoM. The bright spot came from home appliances supported by the trade in program. The 2025 envelope is about RMB 300 billion, a little over two thirds has been disbursed, with the remaining tranche slated for October.
- Investment is weighed down by property. Fixed asset investment rose 1.6% YoY in Jan to Jul, below 2.8% YoY in H1. Real estate investment fell 12% YoY and new home prices declined 2.8% YoY. Offsets came from infrastructure at 3.2% YoY and manufacturing at 6.2% YoY; excluding property, FAI increased 5.3% YoY. Scope for further expansion is constrained by tight local government finances.
- Industrial production cooled. IP rose 5.7% YoY, the slowest since Nov 2024; manufacturing grew 6.2% YoY versus 7.4% YoY in the prior month. Extreme weather, softer external demand, and capacity reduction policies will weigh in the coming months.
- Exports are a near term prop but lack durability. Headline exports increased 7.2% YoY; ASEAN 16.6% YoY, EU 9.2% YoY, while the United States fell 21.7% YoY marking a third consecutive monthly decline. Recent gains largely reflect front loading ahead of tariff milestones; risks rise if the United States enforces a 40% tariff on suspected third country transshipment.
- Looking ahead, the key medium term signal is the Fourth Plenum in October which will set directions for the Fifteenth Five Year Plan 2026 to 2030.
VGI – Q2 and H1/2025: Maintaining a growth streak of more than 20% YoY for 7 consecutive quarters
27-08-2025
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- VGI recorded a positive performance in Q2 with revenue/PBT/NPAT-MI growth rate of 21%, 76% and 185% yoy, respectively. The African region contributed the most with 51.4% of revenue thanks to the impressive growth rate (>50%) from market companies in Burundi, Mozambique, Tanzania and some other markets (Haiti, Cambodia, Timor-Leste).
- In H1/2025, VGI reached VND 20,170.9 billion in revenue (reaching 52% of the plan, equivalent to 51.7% of VDSC's forecast) and VND 3,976 billion in profit (completing 70% of the plan, equivalent to 42% of the forecast).
- In terms of segments, telecom services are still the core segment with a contribution of more than 80%. In addition, the digital service segment continued to perform well, notably the e-wallet segment with a growth rate of more than 80% in Burundi, Tanzania, and Cambodia. This segment is considered to have the greatest potential in this service category.
- 4G technology continues to be upgraded in the African market with a roadmap to increase coverage to 70% in Burundi, while 5G has officially been deployed in Southeast Asia, most recently in the Timor-Leste market.
HPG – Contributions from Dung Quat 02 gradually emerge
26-08-2025
: HPG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In Q2 2025, HPG reported revenue of VND 35.9 trillion (+34% YoY, +28% QoQ). Consumption volume of construction steel continued to improve, driven by demand from public investment projects and real estate developments, particularly in northern Vietnam. Notably, HRC consumption volume recorded significant growth following the operational launch of the Dung Quất 02 (DQ02) plant in March, operating at approximately 70% capacity in phase 1, with strong uptake from domestic flat steel manufacturers.
- In 2H2025, we expect the domestic market to maintain its recovery momentum, supporting the company’s sales volume. This will be driven by intensified construction activities, bolstered by the real estate market and public investment projects, alongside peak construction demand in Q4. Additionally, the official imposition of anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel imports from China (ranging from 23.1% to 27.8%, effective for five years) will alleviate pressure from imported steel and enable HPG to gradually capture a greater domestic market share.
11-09-2025
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