23-10-2026VNINDEX1774.1513.520.77% HNXIndex262.71.620.62% UPCOM126.26-0.65-0.51% VN301907.0914.110.75% VN1001814.5917.350.97% HNX30444.52-0.75-0.17% VNXALL2817.1125.750.92% VNX503175.5231.401.00% VNMID1887.219.000.48% VNSML1260.093.460.28% PVC resin price update and BMP's 2026 business outlook
12-05-2026
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- As of May 2026, PVC prices in Southeast Asia, China, and Vietnam have corrected by 14-20% from their March peaks. This decline was primarily driven by China following the end of its pre-tax-policy export surge, combined with oversupply pressures and the cost advantage of coal-based PVC, which allowed producers to cut prices competitively.
- Despite the current cooling, PVC prices are unlikely to retreat to the historical lows of USD 600/ton. This is due to elevated oil and ethylene costs amid Middle East tensions, while China’s termination of the 13% VAT rebate is expected to further widen the price gap between China and the rest of the region.
- We maintain our 2026 average price forecast for Southeast Asian PVC at USD 850 /ton (+20% YoY). Consequently, BMP’s parent company NPAT is estimated to reach VND 1,165 billion (-5% YoY). The updated target price for the stock will be detailed in our upcoming earnings update report.
Analysis of New Liquidity Ratios in the Draft Circular Amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN
11-05-2026
: VCB, BID, CTG, ACB, MBB, TCB, VPB, HDB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- On April 29, 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) published a draft circular amending Circular 22/2019/TT-NHNN (TT22), introducing several new provisions and changes to key safety ratios converging toward Basel III standards, specifically: (1) Adding a completely new ratio — the Leverage Ratio; (2) Upgrading three liquidity ratios: (i) the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) replacing the two existing payment capacity ratios (the liquidity reserve ratio and the 30-day payment capacity ratio); (ii) the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) replacing the Short-term Capital for Medium- and Long-term Lending ratio; and (iii) the Credit-to-Deposit Ratio (CDR) replacing the Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR).
- The draft Circular sets a proposed effective date of January 1, 2028. It does not immediately mandate a 100% minimum threshold for LCR and NSFR; instead, these will be phased in, starting at a minimum of 70% and 90%, respectively, from 2028, gradually rising to 100% in 2031 (LCR) and 2030 (NSFR). Banks that do not meet the 100% minimum for LCR and NSFR by January 1, 2028 must maintain a CDR of no more than 85%. Once the new Circular takes effect, adequately capable banks may register with the SBV to immediately apply LCR and NSFR at 100% in lieu of the old TT22 requirements and will not be obligated to comply with the CDR. Meanwhile, the Leverage Ratio (LEV) — as a supplementary tool to capital adequacy requirements — will not be mandatorily effective from January 1, 2028, but will instead be applied at the Governor's discretion as needed in each period.
- We believe that the Draft Circular amending TT22 is not aimed at addressing current liquidity pressures within the banking system, but rather represents a planned upgrade of the liquidity management standards framework, designed to move closer to Basel III.
- The new liquidity ratios introduced in this draft are significantly stricter than the existing TT22 requirements, compelling banks to undertake a comprehensive restructuring of their balance sheets. For example, regulations encourage commercial banks to attract retail deposits (which are more stable in nature) over short-term interbank funding on the liability side, and to hold high-quality liquid assets (such as government bonds) while limiting illiquid, riskier assets (such as long-term real estate loans or high-risk corporate bonds) on the asset side. In terms of business impact, these regulations are likely to create structural shifts including rising cost of funds (due to increased competition for stable retail deposits in the primary market) and declining profitability and capital efficiency (due to the requirement to hold a portion of capital in High-Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA), which carry lower yields than commercial lending).
FRT – Q1/2026 Earnings results: Accelerating through the peak season
08-05-2026
: FRT
: Retailing
: Lan Anh Tran
Tags: FRT
- Net revenue reached VND 15,117 billion (+29.5% YoY), with Long Chau contributing 68.1% (VND 10,302 billion), broadly in line with our expectations. Long Chau maintained strong growth of 29.0% YoY, though showing signs of moderating versus previous quarters, reflecting a normalization toward a more sustainable growth base amid tougher comparisons. Meanwhile, FPT Shop recorded VND 4,815 billion in revenue (+30.8% YoY), marking a clear acceleration following its recovery since 2H25.
- PBT in Q1 reached VND 472 billion, equivalent to 30.4% of the company’s full-year target and 24.1% of our forecast. NPAT-MI came in at VND 287 billion (+71.1% YoY), exceeding our expectations by 18%, with net margin improving to 1.9% (+0.5 ppts YoY). Long Chau remained the key driver, which sustained a strong net margin of 2.6% (+0.3 ppts YoY), while FPT Shop improved operational efficiency and returned to profitability from a loss in the same period last year, supported by optimized operating costs, with net margin reaching 0.3% (+0.8 ppts YoY).
- FRT’s Q1 results were broadly in line with our revenue forecast, while earnings outperformed expectations. However, this does not materially change our full-year 2026 outlook, as the strong Q1 earnings base is expected to offset weaker profitability in Q2, which is typically the low season for Apple smartphone demand. Accordingly, we maintain our 2026 forecast for net revenue of VND 60,253 billion (+18.0% YoY) and NPAT-MI/EPS of VND 1,163 billion (+46.3% YoY) and VND 6,829. We also maintain our target price of VND 185,500/share (2026F/2027F forward P/E of 21.3x/14.8x), implying a BUY recommendation with expected return of 27% based on the closing price as of May 7, 2026.
PVS – Q1/2026 results: Margins reached new highs
07-05-2026
: PVS
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags:
- In Q1/2026, PVS reported strong results with consolidated revenue of more than VND 8.7 tn (+45% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 416 bn (+25% YoY), completing 26% of its revenue target and 53% of its profit target for the year. The results were supported by a strong project backlog and solid execution progress.
- Key domestic projects such as Block B – O Mon, Lac Da Vang, and Su Tu Trang Phase 2B continued to make good progress. At the same time, PVS expanded its offshore wind presence across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
- For FY2026, we forecast revenue of VND 39,454 bn (+21% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 2,330 bn (+28% YoY; +20% YoY excluding provision reversals). Using a 50:50 blend of DCF and EV/EBITDA valuation methods, we set a 12-month target price of VND 48,700/share, implying an expected return of 25% based on the closing price on May 7, 2026. We maintain a BUY recommendation on PVS.
POW – Business Results Q1/2026: High Qc allocation for Nhon Trach 3&4
06-05-2026
: POW
: Power
:
Tags:
- PV Power's revenue increased by 57% YoY, and profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 147% YoY. The main growth driver comes from the Nhon Trach 3&4 (NT3&4) factory starting to contribute output and revenue.
- POW's actual generated volume (Qm) increased by 33% YoY, of which NT3&4 contributed 15% to the total output, reaching 874 million kWh. The Qm of Nhon Trach 1 and Nhon Trach 2 increased by 154% and 59% YoY, respectively, offsetting a 10% YoY decrease in the output of Ca Mau 1&2.
- The Company's gross profit margin improved by 4.6 pps YoY (reaching 14.6%) thanks to NT3&4 being allocated a high contracted volume (Qc), reaching 1.4 billion kWh, equivalent to a Qc/Qm ratio of 163%.
- POW's Q1/2026 business results exceeded our expectations, completing 102%/165% of analysts' revenue and NPAT-MI forecasts. We are revising our forecasts and will update them in the latest report. Currently, we maintain our ACCUMULATION recommendation on POW stock with a target price of 15,700 VND/share. However, investors should pay attention to the risk that the business results and valuation of POW stocks may be negatively impacted by prolonged hostilities in the Middle East, pushing fuel prices to high levels.
MWG – Solidifying the leading market position
05-05-2026
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: MWG
- MWG’s Q1-2026 results significantly exceeded expectations, with net revenue reaching VND 46,462 bn (+28.6% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 2,715 bn (+75.6% YoY). The strong performance was driven by robust margin expansion across both core chains. Thanks to low-cost inventory, TGDD & DMX benefited from higher selling prices amid the global ICT supply shock (RAM and chip shortages). Meanwhile, BHX delivered better-than-expected margin improvement as it deepened penetration into rural Northern and Central regions.
- We maintain our forecast MWG’s 2026/27F net revenue at VND 180,085/201,836 bn (+15.1%/+12.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 8,915/10,222 bn (+26.7%/+14.7% YoY). MWG’s share price corrected ~11.0% in Q1-2026, trading at a trailing P/E of 15.0x and forward P/E of 13.8x / 12.1x for 2026/27F — well below its 5-year average of 20.5x and the industry average of 23.9x. This implies attractive valuation relative to its growth outlook (>20% YoY). We maintain our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 103,100 per share and a cash dividend of VND 2,000 per share, based on the closing price as of May 4th, 2026.
SIP – Positive results from IP land leasing activities
04-05-2026
: SIP
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- SIP recorded stable business results in Q1/2026, with net revenue and NPAT-MI reaching VND2.1 trillion (+12% YoY, -6% QoQ) and VND334 billion (-5% YoY, -6% QoQ), respectively. Sales showed signs of recovery, as the company began recording large lease contracts in the first quarter (with 35 hectares newly leased, equivalent to 52% of the total expected leased area in 2026).
- At the 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders, the company shared its development orientation for existing industrial parks to ensure they are ready for leasing in subsequent phases, as well as positive expectations for land leasing prospects for the year (60 hectares of industrial park land to be newly leased, +197% YoY).
FMC – Business Results Q1/2026 - In line with the Company's prudent business strategy
29-04-2026
: FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q1/2026 reached VND 1,399 billion (-30% YoY), primarily due to a 30% YoY decline in the shrimp segment as both volume and selling prices fell. Specifically, shrimp sales volume reached 4,491 tons (-27% YoY) with an average selling price of VND 305,000/kg (-5% YoY). The sharp decline in volume was driven by the Company's proactive strategy to limit exports to the U.S. market while awaiting the results of the POR19 anti-dumping duty review.
- Gross profit margin improved slightly to 7.2% (from 6.4% in the same period last year), driven by an increase in the shrimp segment's gross margin from 6.2% to 6.7%. This improvement resulted from raw shrimp prices decreasing faster than selling prices (-8% YoY vs. -5% YoY). The SG&A expense-to-revenue ratio decreased to 4.68% as selling expenses dropped sharply by 56% YoY, thanks to lower freight costs following the scale-back in U.S. exports. Consequently, profit before tax reached VND 51.3 billion (+41.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI stood at VND 40.8 billion (+37% YoY).
- While Q1/2026 results were not yet fully robust, we expect export activities to recover starting from Q2/2026 following the POR19 results. Accordingly, we forecast full-year 2026 revenue to reach VND 8,649 billion (+6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 392 billion (+7% YoY), excluding a potential tax reversal from POR20 of approximately VND 150 billion.
- We maintain a BUY recommendation for FMC stock with a target price of VND 50,200/share for the medium and long term. The outlook from Q2/2026 onwards will be supported by the resumption of exports to the U.S. following positive POR19 results, a push into high-margin value-added products (breaded and battered shrimp), and an increasing self-sufficiency rate in shrimp larvae, which helps stabilize and improve profit margins.
NT2– Q1/2026 business performance: Calm before the storm
28-04-2026
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- Bottom-line performance: Net Profit After Tax and Minority Interest (NPAT-MI) surged 386% YoY, though it saw a 57% QoQ decline.
- Margin expansion: Gross Profit Margin (GPM) expanded by 6.9 pps YoY, driven by (1) robust dispatch volumes, and (2) a 78% YoY reduction in depreciation expenses. However, on a sequential basis, GPM contracted by 10.2 pps due to the absence of one-off revenue recorded in Q4/2025.
- Fuel costs: Average fuel prices are estimated to have risen by 2% YoY and 6% QoQ, reflecting heightened Middle East conflict.
SCS – Profit growth slows due to Middle East conflict impact
24-04-2026
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- In Q1-FY26, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 272 bn (+2% YoY) and VND 173 bn (+2% YoY), respectively, completing 21%/23% of the annual plan. International and domestic cargo volumes reached 47 thousand tons (-6% YoY) and 14 thousand tons (-4% YoY), respectively. Overall, SCS's Q1-FY26 Result was in line with our projections (revenue and NPAT were forecasted to reach VND 258 bn and VND 165 bn, respectively, 5% higher than our revenue and NPAT projections).
- The impacts of the conflict in the Middle East are short-term as airlines have begun to resume operations at the end of March 2026. We maintain our projections for 2026, with net revenue and NPAT reaching VND 1,314 bn (+10% YoY) and VND 811 bn (+8% YoY), respectively.
- In the long term, SCS's growth prospects depend on the selection results for the operator at Long Thanh International Airport (LTIA). Currently, the expected operation timeline is in 2027, and there is no new information regarding the selection of the operator at LTIA. Therefore, we performed a business valuation based on two scenarios: Not selected (scenario 1) and Selected (scenario 2) for LTIA. Using the FCFF method, the target prices for the two scenarios are VND 53,600/share and VND 118,200/share. We recommend OBSERVE.
LHG – Continuing the Ready-Built Factory Development Plan
23-04-2026
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- In Q1, LHG recorded revenue of 176 billion VND (-58% YoY, +45% QoQ), derived from Ready-Built Factories (RBF) and industrial zone (IZ) land leasing. Gross profit recorded positive results, reaching 97 billion VND (+99% QoQ, -31% YoY) – in line with our projections. During the period, LHG recorded extraordinary revenue (48 billion VND) from land compensation income; consequently, the company's net profit after tax (NPAT) exceeded estimates, reaching 112 billion VND (+2% YoY, +141% QoQ).
- The company has set a relatively conservative business target for 2026, with revenue and NPAT reaching 728 billion VND (-4% YoY) and 166 billion VND (-43% YoY), respectively. Project development progress: For the 2026-27 period, we observe that the company will continue to focus on RBF projects (multi-story factory projects at Long Hau 1 & 3 IZs), thanks to stable cash flow and customer interest. IZ projects either lack available land for lease (Long Hau 3 IZ, Phase 1) or are in the early stages of development (Long Hau 3, Phase 2).
Steel Industry – CBAM Certificate Price for Q1 2026 and Key Considerations
22-04-2026
: HPG, HSG, GDA, NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- Limited short-term impact due to quota barriers: Although CBAM compliance costs (estimated at EUR 87–94 per ton) may reduce the price competitiveness of Vietnamese steel, the primary challenge in the EU market remains safeguard measures. The EU is expected to further tighten restrictions by cutting duty-free steel import quotas by 47%, applying a 50% tariff on volumes exceeding quotas, and enforcing stricter origin controls.
- Green transformation as a long-term necessity: Compliance with CBAM is an essential requirement for regaining export market share in the EU over the medium to long term. Vietnamese steel producers need to accelerate investments in cleaner production technologies, standardize emissions measurement systems, and prioritize accurate emissions reporting. These steps will help minimize the cost burden of purchasing CBAM certificates and reduce the risk of penalties due to incomplete or inaccurate data.
12-05-2026
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