Results of the HOSE Index Portfolio Changes for Q1/2025
21-01-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags:
- The VN30 index portfolio will officially add LPB stock and remove POW stock. Accordingly, we estimate that the funds tracking this index will purchase 18.3 million shares of LPB and sell 3.2 million shares of POW during this restructuring period.
- The VNFIN LEAD index portfolio will not have any changes in its constituent stocks.
The Fisheries Sector in 2025 – Unpredictable Fluctuations
20-01-2025
: VHC, FMC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The export value of pangasius in 2024 reached $2 billion (+9% YoY), driven by a 16% increase in production volume despite average selling prices being 6% lower than the same period last year. The strong export growth was mainly attributed to the U.S. market (+29% YoY), while the Chinese market slightly declined by 1% YoY, and the EU market saw a marginal increase of 1% YoY. Average selling prices in the U.S./China/EU markets were respectively -4%/-14%/-5% YoY.
- The total export value of the shrimp industry in 2024 reached $3.8 billion (+14% YoY), primarily driven by other shrimp products such as lobster, while white-leg shrimp saw a modest increase of 8% YoY and black tiger shrimp declined by -3% YoY. The robust growth in white-leg shrimp was due to a 13% increase in production volume, even though selling prices remained 4% lower than the same period last year.
- Moving into 2025, the fisheries industry will face unpredictable fluctuations due to U.S. tariff rates on various countries. However, the pangasius industry is expected to grow, supported by increased production and competitive pricing compared to tilapia and domestic Alaskan pollock in the U.S. The shrimp sector is poised to grow, leveraging competitive advantages in value-added shrimp products, while awaiting the final determination on anti-dumping duties in the U.S.
- Gross margins for fisheries companies are expected to improve, benefiting from an estimated 4% YoY decrease in soybean prices, a slight 3-5% YoY increase in selling prices (with a forecasted 3% YoY rise in the USD/VND exchange rate), and an improved supply of raw shrimp and fish due to favorable weather conditions with moderate rainfall.
HDB: Growth prospects supported by the mandatory acquisition of Dong A Bank
17-01-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- On January 17, 2025, HDB officially received the mandatory transfer of Dong A Bank (DAB) after preparing financial resources since 2022.
- We expect HDB to continue maintaining growth in credit scale and market share in the industry, thanks to the incentive mechanisms from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) for commercial banks receiving mandatory transfer. In addition, HDB will be supported by the SBV to grow its total assets and profitability through the flexible use of lending and investment capital, while minimizing the negative impact of DAB on HDB.
- The SBV provides support policies for restructuring weak banks by accelerating the collection of bad debts and creating mechanisms for generating profits, enabling these banks to operate independently in the future.
FPT – Forecast Update for 2024F/25F: AI Cloud Expected to Drive Net Profit Growth to 25% in 2025
16-01-2025
: FPT
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags:
- For 2024, we project revenue and pre-tax profit (PBT) to grow by 19% and 20%, respectively. Specifically, revenue growth in the Technology/Telecommunications/Education & Investment segments is expected to reach 24%/10%/15%, while PBT growth for these segments is forecast at 24%/18%/14%.
- For 2025, we
anticipate revenue and PBT growth of 23% and 22%, respectively. Revenue in the
Technology/Telecommunications/Education & Investment segments is projected
to grow by 29%/13%/13%, while PBT growth for these segments is expected to
reach 35%/9%/14%
- We use a sum-of-the-parts valuation method for FPT, incorporating valuation for the AI cloud service segment using a five-year DCF approach, with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 13%. The target price is VND 159,000 per share, reiterating an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
- As of January 16, 2025, FPT is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 28.6x, which is over two standard deviations higher than its five-year average of 17.8x. This revaluation has occurred much faster compared to global IT service leaders who have also expanded deeply into AI projects since the breakthrough of generative AI (GenAI) in late 2022. While we acknowledge FPT’s strong potential as Vietnam’s largest IT service provider and its promising position in the future wave of AI investments, we believe more time is required for its AI cloud services to make a meaningful contribution to profitability, enabling financial results to align with the current valuation levels.
2025F outlook for power sector: policy choke points are being eliminated
15-01-2025
: REE, PC1
: Utilities
: Thang Hoang
Tags:
- Electricity supply continues to be tightened in the period of 2024-2025. While electricity demand is still increasing, electricity supply growth slowed down during the absence of investment attraction policies in the 2022-2024 period.
- We see policy bottlenecks of power sector are being removed to ensure the electricity supply targets for the 2026-2030 period. However, there are still some challenges to the development of new power sources, especially LNG power and offshore wind power.
U.S Labor market and economic growth outlook for 2025
14-01-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S labor market ended 2024 on a relatively resilient note.
- U.S economic growth outlook for 2025 appears weaker due to heightened caution among businesses and consumers.
The 2024 Revised Health Insurance Law - boost public participation and drive ETC pharmaceutical revenue growth
13-01-2025
: IMP, DBD
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology, Health Care Equipment
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- The 2024 Revised Health Insurance (HI) Law was passed by the National Assembly on November 27, 2024, and will come into effect on July 1, 2025.
- We have noted four key areas in the 2024 Revised HI Law: 1) expanding the benefits of HI beneficiaries; 2) incorporating technological advancements; 3) adjusting the allocation of HI revenue and increasing the advanced payments for HI-based medical treatments; and 4) setting a deadline for the connection of paraclinical test results among medical facilities under HI coverage.
- This law will attract more participation in the HI system. As a result, we expect pharmaceutical revenue from the ETC (ethical pharmaceutical) channel to benefit from this change.
- However, given the time required to translate the general provisions of the law into guidance circulars and decrees, the 2024 Revised HI Law is expected to have a moderate impact in the medium to long term. The effect of the law in 2025 will be minimal.
A Review of Vietnam Economy in 2024
10-01-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- The manufacturing industry is crucial to the 7.1% GDP growth in 2024.
- Production and exports bounce back from last year's low levels.
- The consumption of goods and services improves slowly.
- The role of public investment in economic growth for 2024 remains rather bleak.
- The rate of capital mobilization lags behind credit growth, while the exchange rate rose by 5.0% in 2024.
Seaport – The impact of the restructuring of ocean alliances on the value chain of the seaport industry
09-01-2025
: GMD, VSC, HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In 2025, the world will witness the restructuring of the alliance of major shipping lines with the emergence of Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance, which is expected to cause changes in cargo flows on major shipping routes.
- Vietnam's deep-water ports will become the preferred destinations of shipping lines because of the trend of expanding the fleet with increasing size and increasing the frequency/adding ports to expand market share on two key maritime routes Asia – North America and Asia – Europe.
- The maritime industry will experience mixed developments, while international freight rates are forecast to decrease due to increased competition on key maritime routes, the term leasing sector will be more active thanks to its flexibility and suitability to the market context.
Forecast changes in the VN30 and VNFIN LEAD for Q1/2025 and Update on the Construction & management rules for the HOSE-Index Version 4.0
08-01-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags:
- The VN30 index will see changes in its component stocks: LPB will be added, while POW will be removed. Accordingly, we estimate that funds tracking this index will buy 19.5 million LPB shares and sell 3.2 million POW shares during this restructuring period.
- The VNFIN LEAD index will not see any changes in its component stocks. The only ETF tracking the VNFIN LEAD index has recorded a performance of 19.6% in 2024.
- The updated Construction and Management Rules for the HOSE Index Version 4.0 include several improvements regarding liquidity requirements and the quality of component stocks.
Food hygiene and safety standards in Vietnam's grocey retail industry – Seen from the story of Walmart
07-01-2025
: MWG, MSN
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- We believe that, for grocery retail, especially fresh products, "food safety and hygiene" is the core for attracting/increasing the customer life cycle in chain stores, thereby being a prerequisite for replicating the model.
- Therefore, the great success of Walmart (the largest grocery retail system in the United States with a market share of ~25%) is contributed to the good control of food safety and hygiene issues based on the Walmart Food Safety Standards established by the chain itself.
- We recognize that the development of separate food safety inspection centers with strict processes such as Walmart, is necessary to generate sustainable revenue in the long term of grocery retail chains in Vietnam.
TAL - Enterprise with potential land fund in the Northern region
06-01-2025
: VDS
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- Taseco Land Investment Jsc (Upcom: TAL) is a subsidiary of Taseco Group Jsc (unlisted). From 2021, the Company promotes the development of land funds in the North (including tier-I and II markets) in the form of bidding/auction to become the primary investor of the project, thereby ensuring a clean land fund (~90 hectares of land for residentail real estate and 223 hectares of industrial park) for long-term growth.
- Most of the business's assets are inventory, including projects under construction and planned to open for sale in the period 2024-2025. In which, the projects with the highest proportion include Central Riverside and Nghi Son Central Park urban areas (Thanh Hoa), high-rise housing projects at Lot A3/CT2 and office buildings at Lot B3-CC2A (Hanoi).
- TAL stock is trading at a P/B of 1.9x, which is equivalent to the industry average, while the profitability is high (ROA and ROE of 7% and 19%, respectively) compared to the industry average. Along with a clean land fund and located in potential markets, we think that this is a real estate business that can pay attention in the near future.
21-01-2025
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