GMD – Maintain strong revenue and profit growth momentum in Q2-FY25

• BUY recommendation for GMD with an attractive upside potential of 28% compared to the closing price on July 30, 2025, with a target price of VND 71,000/share and an expected dividend of VND 2,000/share within 12 months.
• Despite intensifying competition in Hai Phong with four new terminals commencing operations in the Lach Huyen area, GMD has demonstrated resilience, expanding its market share from 18.45% at the beginning of the year to 19.32% by 6M2025, equivalent to an 87 bps YTD increase, supported by its favorable geographic location that attracts clients from river ports.
• Joint ventures and associates remain key contributors to GMD’s earnings, with profit from JVs accounting for 57%, reaching VND 241 billion (+32% YoY), primarily driven by Gemalink and SCS.

Transition of solar power policy to match market mechanism

• According to the Revised Power Plan VIII, solar power is positioned to become one of the main sources of electricity generation in the national system, targeting 26% of installed capacity by 2030 and increasing to 32% by 2050.
• Investment in solar energy is being promoted based on two key drivers: (1) contributing to Vietnam’s Net Zero emissions commitment and (2) the declining cost of solar power development and generation, making it increasingly competitive with conventional energy sources.
• After the period of FIT-based price support, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has gradually reduced the solar power purchase price and started using pricing as a tool to guide regional development and encourage the adoption of new technologies, such as energy storage systems.

DPR – Rubber segment continue to leads business results in the second quarter of 2025

• In the second quarter of 2025, DPR recorded revenue of VND 202 billion (equivalent to QoQ, -13% YoY), profit after tax for parent shareholders reached VND 53 billion (-20% QoQ, -28% YoY). The result was affected by the specific seasonality of the rubber industry and the decline of the tree liquidation segment. Gross profit margin reached 34%.
• Accumulated in 6M2025, the selling price of rubber remains high, averaging 54.8 million VND/ton (+31% YoY), consumption volume reaches 3,010 tons (+12% YoY)
• The expanded Bac Dong Phu Industrial Park project is carrying out the necessary legal procedures and is expected to start construction from August 2025; while the Nam Dong Phu expansion project has also been approved for the policy, with a plan to implement in 2027.

FMC – Update of Q2/2025 investor meeting - Bright future expectations as tariff risks diminish

• Revenue and NPAT-MI in Q2/2025 both exceeded our forecast due to a strong growth in shrimp output and selling price (in VND). Revenue recorded an increase of 51% YoY thanks to the growth of export volume  from the US market. However, NPAT-MI increased by 21% YoY due to a decrease in net profit margin YoY, as the net margin in the US market was lower than in other markets due to additional tax expenses in this market.
• 2025 PBT’s is expected to be equivalent to the same period last year, with growth in 2H2025 from the Japanese and EU markets compensating for the decline in the US market. Net profit margin in 2H2025 is expected to be difficult to improve significantly, due to the increase in selling prices but accompanied by an increase in the cost of shrimp raw materials.
• In the medium term, the business is expected to maintain its growth momentum by improving the autonomy rate and maintaining a high success rate in shrimp farming as well as maintaining competitive advantages in key markets as following:
  • In the US market, becoming a mandatory defendant for 2024 will give businesses the chance to enjoy anti-dumping duties (AD) at 0% for the 2025 period. In addition, there is still room for export as fried shrimp products and fresh shrimp flour products that are not subject to AD tax and fried shrimp products, which face little competition from other countries.
  • In the Japanese market, the long-standing brand reputation and consistent products, in line with consumer tastes, continuing to strengthen the company's position.
• With positive business results in Q2/2025, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation on FMC stock with a target price  of VND42,000/share. The current target price has reflected the short-term uncertainties associated with tariffs in the US market this year. However, the target price has not taken into account positive factors such as businesses expecting Vietnam's reciprocal tariff to be about 11% and anti-dumping duties to decrease to 0% this year.

MONETARY MARKET UPDATE JULY 2025: SUPPORTING LIQUIDITY AND CREATING CONDITIONS FOR CREDIT EXPANSION

• Our three main observations regarding monetary policy operations over the past month are: 1. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) is ready to provide liquidity to the system through open market operations, 2. The SBV gradually adjusts the central exchange rate within the permitted band, and 3. It paves the way for phasing out the credit allocation mechanism by issuing Circular 14.
• The outstanding loan balance under the SBV's collateralized lending channel is currently at a record high since 2017 (~VND 187 trillion as of July 24).
• The central exchange rate has been adjusted upward by 3.4% since the beginning of the year, reaching VND 25,166/USD, corresponding to the upper limit of the exchange rate band at VND 26,424/USD, approximately VND 300 higher than the average interbank exchange rate as of July 24.
• Circular 14/2025, issued on June 30 and effective from September 15, includes the following key points: 1. Introducing an internal rating method alongside the standard method, with the internal rating method imposing more detailed requirements on capital adequacy ratios, aiming to align these ratios with Basel III standards, and 2. Outlining a phased implementation roadmap, including testing and transition periods, until full adoption by January 1, 2030, allowing commercial banks to choose their method for calculating capital adequacy ratios.

U.S. tariffs rise, but inflation fails to respond as expected

• In the first half of 2025, US inflation did not accelerate as previously feared, despite the effective average import tariff rising to 8.85% (USITC). Core CPI in June increased only 0.23% MoM and remained around 2.9% YoY, while core PPI was largely flat.
• Pricing pressures were mainly concentrated in import-heavy categories such as home appliances, electronics, and furniture, which saw notable price increases in June (home appliances +2.3%, audio equipment +2.9%). In contrast, service sectors such as accommodation and air transportation recorded sharp price declines, partially offsetting the inflationary impact of higher imported goods prices.
• Front-loading of imports ahead of new tariff implementation drove a surge in inbound shipments from late 2024 to early 2025, which helped to temporarily alleviate near-term price pressures. Consumer spending rebounded sharply in June (+0.6% MoM), primarily due to anticipatory buying and expectations for new fiscal stimulus, rather than a direct impact from higher import costs.
• Looking towards the end of 2025, inflation risks from higher tariffs remain, particularly for product groups with a high import share.

TCB – 2Q25 Business Results Update and Analyst Meeting Notes

• In 2Q25, PBT reached VND 7.9 trillion (+1% YoY, +9% QoQ). For 6M25, cumulative PBT amounted to VND 15.1 trillion (-3% YoY), achieving 48% of the full-year forecast.
• Total operating income declined by 5% YoY, driven by a 4% YoY decrease in net interest income and a 14% YoY reduction in fee income. However, operating expenses and provisions for credit risks decreased by 3% YoY and 38% YoY, respectively, resulting in flat PBT for 2Q25 compared to the prior year.
• The NPL ratio slightly increased to 1.26% (1Q25: 1.17%) due to the impact of CIC adjustments. Excluding CIC effects, the NPL ratio remained stable at 1.05% QoQ.
• TCB demonstrated robust credit growth of 10.6% in 2Q25, leveraging its comprehensive ecosystem within the real estate value chain. However, the NIM still faced pressure, declining to 3.8% (-86 bps YoY). Having said that, NIM is expected to stabilize at current levels, supported by stronger credit demand in the second half of the year.
• BVPS at the end of 2Q25 was VND 22,310. At the closing price on July 23, 2025, TCB traded at a P/B ratio of 1.59x.
• PBT projections for 2025F and 2026F are VND 31.7 trillion (+15% YoY) and VND 38.9 trillion (+23% YoY), respectively. The target price for TCB (currently VND 34,000 per share) is under review and will be updated in the forthcoming report.

Telecommunication services: Domestic saturation spurs global expansion amid challenges

• Vietnam’s telecoms service revenue reached VND 147 trillion in 2024 (+3.49% yoy), the growth rate has slowed down and with little indication of significant breakthroughs. Evidence of this can be seen in the stagnant subscriber growth since 2011, 4G penetration reaching 99.99% by 2023, and mobile subscriptions exceeding 90% of the population in 2024.
• Several recent policies and decisions have been issued to strengthen the management of telecom subscriptions, aiming to further reduce the number of fake or inactive SIM cards. These include Decision No. 06/QD-TTg approving the scheme on developing the application of population data, and Decree No. 163/2024/ND-CP detailing certain articles and measures for implementation of the Telecommunications Law in Vietnam.
• The main growth driver of carriers is no longer expected to be the growth in the number of new subscribers, on the contrary, it requires new network technologies such as 5G and later 6G to be deployed more widely to retain users – meeting the demand for data upgrades, transmission speed and network stability.
• In addition, market share volatility reflects intensifying competition among major players such as Viettel, FPT, VNPT, and MobiFone. Viettel maintains its leading position in both revenue market share and subscriber market share in the mobile telecommunications segment. VNPT holds the leading position in the fixed telecommunications segment, however, they witnessed a decline in revenue despite gaining subscribers.
• In that context, many countries and regions in the global market still have room to exploit when telecom infrastructure and network technology have not yet developed strongly (especially in Africa), which is expected to become a “new breeze” for network operators. We believe this is a necessary direction for major telecoms to sustain long-term growth, though it requires time, strong capabilities, and substantial resources to manage risks and challenges.

HDG – Recovery expected in project development

• During the 2023-2024 period, HDG faced legal challenges that prevented project implementation from aligning with expectations. However, in the first half of 2025, we observe the progressive resolution of key bottlenecks, positioning the company to ramp up investments in new projects from the second half of the year onward. 
• We project that HDG's 2025 business performance to exhibit relative positivity against the subdued 2024 baseline, with forecasted revenue and gross profit reaching VND 3,097 billion (+14% YoY) and VND 2,188 billion (+71% YoY), respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is estimated at VND 1,025 billion (+80% YoY), though issues regarding the resolution of matters tied to the Infra 01 project. 
  

Result changes in the HOSE – Index for Q3/2025

• DGC will be officially added to the VN30 index, while BVH will be removed. Based on our estimates, ETFs tracking the VN30 index are expected to accumulate over 1.2 million DGC shares and divest more than 200,000 BVH shares during this rebalancing period.
  
• The new VN30 index basket will take effect on August 4, 2025. Accordingly, related ETFs are expected to complete portfolio rebalancing by August 1, 2025, the final trading session prior to the effective date.
  

The need to expand and upgrade the national power grid.

• According to the revised Power Plan VIII (RPP8), by 2030, 44% of the entire system’s installed capacity will come from renewable energy, concentrated in the Central region. Meanwhile, electricity consumption demand is in the North and South, creating a phase difference between supply and demand.
• To ensure capacity evacuation and system balancing, RPP8 aims to double the current 220kV and 500kV transmission infrastructure.
• Businesses with experience in consulting and constructing power grids such as PC1 and TV2 will directly benefit from this investment trend.

TRADE UPDATE JUN 2025: Reaching the Finish Line Early in Trade Negotiations with the US

The front-loading effect in export orders ahead of tariff deadlines appears to be cooling down. In the first 6 months of 2025 (6M2025), exports increased by 15.3% year-over-year (YoY), while imports rose by 18.6%. The front-loading effect was strong among FDI enterprises.

During 6M2025, electronics recorded the highest export growth (+20.5%), and imports of electronic raw materials also saw the largest increase (+34.3%).

Exports to the US peaked in May and plateaued in June. Vietnam posted a trade surplus of approximately USD62 billion with the US in 6M2025, up 29.2% YoY.

Besides traditional export markets, Vietnam's exports to other markets were robust (+13.5% YoY).

The demand for front-loading exports ahead of the tariff deadline remained strong in electronics, toys, chemicals, plastics, and rubber. Meanwhile, this demand has declined in seafood, footwear, and wood products.

The results of the Vietnam-US trade negotiations were announced on July 2, with a reciprocal tariff rate of 20% and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, although the details of the agreement remain unclear.

There may be no significant differences in the final reciprocal tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Asian countries, except for China.