Early developments in the trade war under Trump 2.0
06-02-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S. trade advantages over Canada and Mexico & China's game adjustment
- Trade tensions and potential economic impacts on the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and China
Vietnamese e-commerce market is projected to experience robust growth
05-02-2025
: VTP
: Retailing
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- E-commerce platforms function as intermediaries, facilitating stakeholder transactions and delivering products from manufacturers to end consumers.
- In 2024, Vietnamese e-commerce market is estimated to reach a Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) of USD 22 billion, ranking third among the six largest economies in Southeast Asia. Vietnam is also forecasted to record the second-highest average annual growth rate in GMV for 2024–2030, at 18.7%, trailing only the Philippines.
- Supporting factors for the growth of Vietnam e-commerce market:
- Internet and smartphone adoption rates in Vietnam are high and continue to grow.
- Vietnam's per capita income is projected to grow at a solid annual rate of 7.0% for 2024–2030.
- The completion rate of major transportation projects, based on total investment value, is expected to rise.
- The value of electronic payment transactions is projected to increase at a robust annual rate of 14.5% through 2030.
- The Covid-19 pandemic changes consumer habits.
- Supportive government policies.
- Challenges to the growth of vietnam's e-commerce market:
- Underdeveloped transportation and digital infrastructure.
- High competition in the industry.
- Concerns about the safety and security of online transactions impact consumer’s demand for e-commerce services.
- Shortage of high-quality human resources.
- We believe that e-commerce will gradually capture traditional commerce and retail market share. However, with their unique advantages, traditional commerce and retail still maintain a presence and continue to grow. Opportunities exist for businesses that can integrate and leverage the strengths of both models.
Understanding the definition of milk powder and predicting raw milk powder price trends for 2025
04-02-2025
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- Raw milk powder provides transportation benefits by rising the shelf life (advantage over fresh milk). In addition, powdered milk is often considered as a milk substitute (reconstituted milk) with a lower cost than fresh milk, but it is judged by consumers that the nutritional content decreases due to many stages of processing (especially heat treatment).
- We also note that investors observe changes in the following countries that will skew the supply-demand balance, greatly affecting the price of raw milk powder in the world: New Zealand, Europe, the US (supply), China, Southeast Asia (demand).
- The supply of milk powder on a long-term decline and the resilient demand for milk powder will cause the price of raw milk powder to be anchored at a high level, affecting the profit margins of listed dairy companies such as VNM and IDP in 2025.
- To further reinforce the above statement, we refer to Fonterra's business plans and milk price judgments – The company accounts for ~80% of New Zealand's milk production and ~20% of Australia's milk production (the two countries account for 60-80% of the world's milk powder exports). The company has raised the forecast average price for the 2024/25 season of Farm Milk Prices from $9.00/kgMS from the end of Q9-2024 to $9.50/kgMS at the end of Nov 2024 and $10.00/kgMS at the end of Dec 2024.
Investment Support Fund (ISF) – Orientation for the development of high-tech FDI projects
24-01-2025
: KBC, SZC, VGC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: KBC
- Under the domination of the global minimum tax (GMT), Vietnam's competitive advantage in income tax for large foreign partners has declined. Decree 182 on the establishment of the ISF Investment Support Fund is an appropriate step to maintain and reinforce the existing strengths in the process of attracting FDI projects in Vietnam in the coming period.
- The Investment Support Fund (ISF) states that high-tech enterprises, manufacturing products, or using high-tech in production will be entitled to monetary support (VND) for human resource development, research and development (R&D) investment, investment in fixed assets, investment in social infrastructure, and production of products if they meet the requirements on the minimum capital size, or annual revenue target and ensure the capital disbursement schedule as prescribed.
- We believe that this reflects the Government's long-term vision to position Vietnam as a high-tech manufacturing hub in the region, contributing to enhancing the global value chain of advanced industries, especially semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
DPR – The industrial park segment is expected to bring cash flow in 2026
23-01-2025
: DPR
: Industrial Land RE
: Giao Nguyen
Tags:
- Bac Dong Phu Expanded Industrial Park (317ha, Binh Phuoc) has just been approved for investment policy with a total investment capital of VND 1,360 billion, and we expect the project to be able to sign MOUs at the end of 2025 and record revenue in 2026.
- Rubber selling prices continue to increase, the average selling price in 2024 will reach 48 million VND/ton (+38.7%YoY). For 2025, we increase our expectations for the average rubber price to increase to 53 million VND/ton (+10.4%YoY)
- We estimate DPR's revenue and EBITDA in 2025 to reach VND 1,329 billion (+15.8% YoY) and VND 367 billion (+10% YoY), respectively.
TCB - Q4-2024 Financial results exceed expectations due to significant reduction in credit cost following unexpected improvement in asset quality
22-01-2025
: TCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Consolidated PBT for Q4-2024 reached VND 4.7 trillion (-19% YoY), primarily due to the recognition of VND 1.8 trillion in expenses from ending the partnership with Manulife in distributing bancassurance products, as previously announcement. This period’s performance exceeded expectations due to the reversal of credit cost following an unexpected improvement in asset quality. For the full year 2024, consolidated PBT amounted to VND 27.5 trillion (+20% YoY), achieving the full-year target and exceeding projections by 3%.
- NIM for Q4-2024 continued to decline sharply, dropping nearly 30bps QoQ to 3.9%, after a 50bps reduction in the previous quarter. This was due to a 40bps drop in asset yields to 6.8%, driven by competitive pressures in the market and the maintenance of flexible pricing policies to support real estate developers, while the CoF remained unchanged from the previous quarter at 3.4%.
- Credit provision expense was VND 118 billion, down 93% YoY, corresponding to a credit cost ratio of only 0.03%, thanks to the reversal of provisions after recovering Bucket 2 loans and NPLs, in line with the managers's previous expectations that bad debt and Bucket 2 loans peaked in Q3-2024. The credit cost ratio for the entire year was 0.7%.
- Outlook for 2025: About TCB targets, NII growth of over 20%, driven by credit growth of 20-25% and NFI growth of 10%-20%, while keeping credit cost ratio under 1%.
- Overall, TCB's Q4-2024 financial results were positive in terms of strong CASA growth, asset quality control, and credit cost management, except for the significant decline in NIM. We are in the process of updating our 2025 projections and will provide a more detailed evaluation in the upcoming report.
Results of the HOSE Index Portfolio Changes for Q1/2025
21-01-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags:
- The VN30 index portfolio will officially add LPB stock and remove POW stock. Accordingly, we estimate that the funds tracking this index will purchase 18.3 million shares of LPB and sell 3.2 million shares of POW during this restructuring period.
- The VNFIN LEAD index portfolio will not have any changes in its constituent stocks.
The Fisheries Sector in 2025 – Unpredictable Fluctuations
20-01-2025
: VHC, FMC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The export value of pangasius in 2024 reached $2 billion (+9% YoY), driven by a 16% increase in production volume despite average selling prices being 6% lower than the same period last year. The strong export growth was mainly attributed to the U.S. market (+29% YoY), while the Chinese market slightly declined by 1% YoY, and the EU market saw a marginal increase of 1% YoY. Average selling prices in the U.S./China/EU markets were respectively -4%/-14%/-5% YoY.
- The total export value of the shrimp industry in 2024 reached $3.8 billion (+14% YoY), primarily driven by other shrimp products such as lobster, while white-leg shrimp saw a modest increase of 8% YoY and black tiger shrimp declined by -3% YoY. The robust growth in white-leg shrimp was due to a 13% increase in production volume, even though selling prices remained 4% lower than the same period last year.
- Moving into 2025, the fisheries industry will face unpredictable fluctuations due to U.S. tariff rates on various countries. However, the pangasius industry is expected to grow, supported by increased production and competitive pricing compared to tilapia and domestic Alaskan pollock in the U.S. The shrimp sector is poised to grow, leveraging competitive advantages in value-added shrimp products, while awaiting the final determination on anti-dumping duties in the U.S.
- Gross margins for fisheries companies are expected to improve, benefiting from an estimated 4% YoY decrease in soybean prices, a slight 3-5% YoY increase in selling prices (with a forecasted 3% YoY rise in the USD/VND exchange rate), and an improved supply of raw shrimp and fish due to favorable weather conditions with moderate rainfall.
HDB: Growth prospects supported by the mandatory acquisition of Dong A Bank
17-01-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- On January 17, 2025, HDB officially received the mandatory transfer of Dong A Bank (DAB) after preparing financial resources since 2022.
- We expect HDB to continue maintaining growth in credit scale and market share in the industry, thanks to the incentive mechanisms from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) for commercial banks receiving mandatory transfer. In addition, HDB will be supported by the SBV to grow its total assets and profitability through the flexible use of lending and investment capital, while minimizing the negative impact of DAB on HDB.
- The SBV provides support policies for restructuring weak banks by accelerating the collection of bad debts and creating mechanisms for generating profits, enabling these banks to operate independently in the future.
FPT – Forecast Update for 2024F/25F: AI Cloud Expected to Drive Net Profit Growth to 25% in 2025
16-01-2025
: FPT
: Technologies
: Tung Do
Tags:
- For 2024, we project revenue and pre-tax profit (PBT) to grow by 19% and 20%, respectively. Specifically, revenue growth in the Technology/Telecommunications/Education & Investment segments is expected to reach 24%/10%/15%, while PBT growth for these segments is forecast at 24%/18%/14%.
- For 2025, we
anticipate revenue and PBT growth of 23% and 22%, respectively. Revenue in the
Technology/Telecommunications/Education & Investment segments is projected
to grow by 29%/13%/13%, while PBT growth for these segments is expected to
reach 35%/9%/14%
- We use a sum-of-the-parts valuation method for FPT, incorporating valuation for the AI cloud service segment using a five-year DCF approach, with a terminal growth rate of 3% and a WACC of 13%. The target price is VND 159,000 per share, reiterating an ACCUMULATE recommendation.
- As of January 16, 2025, FPT is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 28.6x, which is over two standard deviations higher than its five-year average of 17.8x. This revaluation has occurred much faster compared to global IT service leaders who have also expanded deeply into AI projects since the breakthrough of generative AI (GenAI) in late 2022. While we acknowledge FPT’s strong potential as Vietnam’s largest IT service provider and its promising position in the future wave of AI investments, we believe more time is required for its AI cloud services to make a meaningful contribution to profitability, enabling financial results to align with the current valuation levels.
2025F outlook for power sector: policy choke points are being eliminated
15-01-2025
: REE, PC1
: Utilities
: Thang Hoang
Tags:
- Electricity supply continues to be tightened in the period of 2024-2025. While electricity demand is still increasing, electricity supply growth slowed down during the absence of investment attraction policies in the 2022-2024 period.
- We see policy bottlenecks of power sector are being removed to ensure the electricity supply targets for the 2026-2030 period. However, there are still some challenges to the development of new power sources, especially LNG power and offshore wind power.
U.S Labor market and economic growth outlook for 2025
14-01-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S labor market ended 2024 on a relatively resilient note.
- U.S economic growth outlook for 2025 appears weaker due to heightened caution among businesses and consumers.
06-02-2025
119 
