The global monetary policy shift: Shaping growth in 2025
06-12-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- Strong movements in global monetary policy in 2024
- Drivers behind central banks continuing their rate-cutting cycles in 2025
- Interest rate outlook for several global central banks in 2025
Seaports – The Cai Mep Ha area is a promising ground for logistics companies
05-12-2024
: GMD
: Seaports
:
Tags: Seaports GMD
- The People's Committee of Ba Ria - Vung Tau Province has proposed the development of a Free Trade Zone (FTZ) in Cai Mep Ha for 2021–2023, with a vision to 2050.
- Vietnam is a destination for global manufacturers due to low labor costs and political stability. The FTZ’s development could help Cai Mep Ha become a global cargo transshipment hub.
- Listed companies owning deep water ports in Cai Mep - Thi Vai, such as GMD (Gemalink) and SGP (CMIT – SSIT), will benefit from this trend.
- China, Singapore, and Malaysia ports, which handle the highest cargo volumes in the world, serve as examples of the successful FTZ development.
Ammended Electricity Law – Accelerating investments in offshore wind and LNG projects from 2025
04-12-2024
: REE, PC1, PVS
: Power
: Thang
Tags:
- 2025 will be a year of positive policy changes for the electricity sector, with a focus on increasing privatization and accelerating approvals of key power projects to ensure electricity supply from 2026 onwards.
- Under the new Electricity Law, the companies to benefit from these changes are (1) the electricity construction sector, as the demand for investment in transmission lines of 220kV and below is expected to remain high, and (2) those generation companies with plan to develop renewable energy and offshore wind power projects. Accordingly, we believe the stocks under our coverage such as PC1 (Target price: VND 26,600/share; USD 1.1), REE (Target price: VND 76,600/share; USD 3.0), and PVS (Target price: VND 38,700/share; USD 1.5) to be the main beneficiaries of these policy changes.
The gold business is expected to remain under strict regulatory control
03-12-2024
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- In mid-November 2024, responses from State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) Governor Nguyen Thi Hong and Deputy Prime Minister Ho Duc Phoc at the Q&A session at the 8th National Assembly Meeting highlighted several regulatory directions for the near future. These include enhancing transparency in gold bar transactions, preventing goldization the economy, maintaining tight oversight of gold business activities, and notably, supporting jewelry manufacturing.
- The October 2024 PNJ’s business results indicate the continued impact of gold supply shortages on the company's gross margin. Meanwhile, the increase in the revenue share from the jewelry retail segment, which yields higher profit margins, and the normalization of the SG&A expenses/revenue ratio drove the net margin up to 7.0%. As a result, net profit for October reached VND 218 bn (USD 9mn), +11% YoY.
- For 10M2024, PNJ’s revenue reached VND 32,371 bn (USD 1,285mn), +23% YoY. Net profit reached VND 1,600 bn (USD 63mn), +4% YoY due to a higher revenue share from the 24K gold segment in 1H2024.
BMP – Positive outlook expectations
02-12-2024
: BMP
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: BMP
- With Q3/2024 business results, BMP recorded revenue of VND 1,423 billion, completing 98% of the plan and growing by 52% YoY. With the advantage of low-cost raw materials (PVC resin), the gross profit margin remained at a high level and reached 53%, thereby achieving VND 362 bn (+34.7%YoY) and VND 290 billion (+38.7%YoY), respectively, completing 104% of the business plan.. The company’s net profit margin remained high and reached 20.4% in Q3. The company shared that its market share has improved in Q3, and expects to continue to maintain its share in Q4.
- The company is preparing for its 2025 business plan, and some positive prospects may come from the expectation that the real estate market and public investment disbursement in the southern market will continue to recover in 2025. It also assumes that PVC resin prices will remain the same as in 2024, however, there are a number of factors that can affect raw material prices from: 1/ Demand from the Chinese market and 2/ Factors related to geopolitical tensions and trade wars.
- For 2025, we estimate that sales volume will improve compared to 2024 and reach 90 thousand tons (up 5.3% YoY), BMP's profit after tax in 2025 can reach VND 1,082 billion (a slight increase of 4% YoY), 2025 EPS is VND 12,000 and we expect the dividend for 2025 to continue to be VND 11,500/share (equivalent to the dividend yield of 9%).
VIB – 2025 Outlook Pre-tax profit is projected to grow by 18%, driven by a clear recovery in retail credit and easing credit cost
29-11-2024
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Pre-tax profit for 9M-2024 decreased by 21% YoY due to (1) a significant 90 bps YoY drop in NIM (TTM) to 4.0%, leading to a 10% YoY decline in Net interest income, and (2) a 10% YoY decline in Non fee income, mainly due to weakened bancassurance sales.
- Credit growth was 11.6% YTD, showing significant improvement compared to the previous quarter (4.6%), driven by the corporate banking segment (+43.3% YTD). Retail growth was slower at +5.5% YTD, with secured loans leading at +37.9% YTD.
- We have revised the 2024F pre-tax profit forecast downward by 17% from the previous projection to VND 9.6 trillion, representing an 11% YoY decline. The 2025F pre-tax profit is expected to grow by 18% to VND 11.3 trillion, supported by 17.2% credit growth driven by the recovery in retail lending and non-interest income growth of +25%, aiming to strengthen the collection of resolved non-performing loans.
- The target price is adjusted to VND 22,300 per share, corresponding to an expected return of 23% relative to the closing price on Nov 29th.
DPR – Rubber segment is the key driver for 2025
28-11-2024
: DPR
: Industrial Land RE
: Giao Nguyen
Tags:
- In October 2024, DPR recorded a total rubber exploitation output of 1,600 tons, the selling price reached VND 50 million per ton. Accumulated in the first 10 months of 2024, total rubber production was set at 8,854 tons (-2.57% YoY) with purchasing volume decreasing over the same period, only reaching 624 tons (-30.8%), the main reason may come from the shortage of rubber supply from smallholders.
- In the base scenario, we estimate DPR's revenue and profit after profit in 2024 to reach VND 1,075 billion (+3.2% YoY) and VND 272 billion (38.1% YoY), respectively, of which revenue from the rubber segment is estimated at VND 867 billion (+12% YoY, gross profit margin from the rubber segment reaches 23%). Equivalent to in Q4/2024, profit is expected to reach VND 103 billion.
- In 2025, we expect the rubber segment to continue to be the key driver contributing to the DPR's business results, while the industrial park segment is expected to slow down due to the slower than expected approval of investment policies for industrial park projects.
BID – Q4-2024 AM note and 2024F-25F Update
27-11-2024
: BID
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- 9M-2024 PBT grew by 12% YoY, driven by an 8% YoY reduction in provisioning expenses, while total operating income recorded a modest increase of 4%. Credit growth remained stable (9.9% for 9M-2024), supported by a robust recovery in the retail segment. However, the net interest margin (NIM, TTM) declined approximately 20 basis points YoY to 2.46%, impacted by various factors such as the implementation of preferential loan packages, reduced interest rates for customers affected by Typhoon Yagi, and rising non-performing loans (NPLs). Among non-interest income drivers, bad debt recoveries stood out, reaching VND 4.5 trillion in 9M-2024, up 35% YoY.
- BIDV expects to fully utilize its credit growth quota of 14.04% approved by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) (current credit growth stands at approximately 11%) and has no plans to raise deposit interest rates through year-end. The bank believes that NPLs peaked in Q3 and aims to control the NPL ratio at under 1.4% by year-end (Q3-2024: 1.7%). BIDV targets a 10% PBT growth for the year, implying a 6% YoY increase in Q4-2024 PBT to approximately VND 8.4 trillion.
- BIDV is awaiting approval from the SBV for its capital increase proposal and is working with potential investors to complete the first tranche of the private placement (2.9% of charter capital) by Q1-2025. The transaction value has not been disclosed. Additionally, BIDV is seeking approval from the Ministry of Finance to increase its charter capital using retained earnings (a stock dividend issuance at a 21% ratio), expected to be completed in early 2025.
- We have revised our 2024 PBT forecast upwards by 2% to VND 30.4 trillion (+11% YoY). For 2025, we project total operating income to grow by 14%, driven primarily by a 15% increase in net interest income (assuming 13.6% credit growth and flat NIM). PBT is expected to grow by 15%, reaching nearly VND 35 trillion.
- We maintain our target price (TP) at VND 54,700 per share, representing an expected return of 18% as of November 27 and implying a 2025F P/B valuation of 2.2x.
Seafood Industry – Exports in October 2024 experienced strong growth
26-11-2024
: VHC, ANV, FMC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- In October 2024, the pangasius sector saw robust growth of 18%, reaching $201 million in export value, driven by a 22% increase in production, though the average selling price remained 3% lower YoY. Export volumes increased significantly, supported by strong growth in the U.S. and Chinese markets, which rose by 63% and 26% YoY, respectively. Overall, the industry's selling price decreased slightly by 3% YoY, thanks to a price recovery in the Chinese and EU markets.
- VHC showed positive growth, with its export value surging by an impressive 79% YoY in October 2024, exceeding expectations. In contrast, ANV underperformed as its export value remained below the same period last year due to a lack of production volume at a low base. However, VHC's gross margin is expected to face challenges in increasing QoQ as raw fish prices trend upward and selling prices remain constrained by declining demand post-festive season.
- The shrimp sector posted strong growth of 24% in October 2024, primarily driven by a sharp increase in other shrimp categories (e.g., lobster), while vannamei shrimp rose modestly by 14% YoY, and black tiger shrimp declined by 2% YoY. The robust growth of vannamei shrimp was mainly due to a 17% increase in production, even though selling prices remained 3% lower YoY.
- FMC’s gross margin is likely to struggle to improve QoQ in Q4/2024 as raw vannamei shrimp prices continue to rise month by month and are currently 19% higher YoY, while selling prices have yet to see growth. Additionally, negotiating higher prices with buyers has been challenging due to reduced stockpiling demand for the festive season and intense competition among exporting countries.
Market classification upgrade outlook by FTSE Assessment: Ready for a new milestone
25-11-2024
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Hung Le
Tags:
- We expect that Vietnam's stock market will officially be upgraded to "Secondary Emerging Market" in 2025, as assessed by FTSE Russell.
- The market upgrade to "Secondary Emerging Market" under FTSE Russell’s assessment is expected to attract a modest capital inflow from index-tracking funds compared to those referencing the MSCI Emerging Market Index.
China's new fiscal policies: Restructuring local debt and paving the way for sustainable growth
22-11-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Nguyen Vu Toan Vo
Tags:
- Rising fiscal pressures on local governments demand more effective central intervention
- Can the new fiscal stimulus shift China’s financial strategy toward long-term stability and economic growth?
Update on monetary market in Nov 2024
21-11-2024
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Ha My
Tags:
- Trump 2.0 and its impact on the USDVND exchange rate.
- Banking system liquidity becomes tight due to year-end capital needs
06-12-2024
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