Vietnam's Real estate market – indirectly affected by the US tariff policy
09-04-2025
09-04-2025: KDH, NLG, DXG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Real estate US tariffs
- The impact of US tariffs on Vietnam's real estate market is indirect, clearly differentiated by product segment and time.
- In the scenario that the United States will apply a reciprocal tax policy to Vietnam, the real estate segment around the industrial park is considered to be the most affected, with the decline starting from 2026 when FDI inflows tend to shift.
- In the long term, the mid-end real estate and social housing segments in tier I cities are expected to be segments with stable prospects thanks to real housing demand, connectivity infrastructure and interest rate support policies.
136 VIB - While credit expansion in Q1/25 shows a positive outlook, narrowing NIM limits the growth of net interest income
08-04-2025
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: VIB
- Q4/24 PBT reached VND 2.4 trillion (+20% QoQ and +1% YoY), bringing 2024 full-year PBT to VND 9 trillion (-16% YoY). The underwhelming annual result was mainly due to (1) 7% YoY decline in TOI stemming from a significant NIM contraction (-130 bps YoY) and (2) 50% YoY drop in bancassurance income, and (3) 9% YoY increase in operating expenses.
- Q1/25F PBT is projected to decline by 4% YoY, primarily due to a sharp 50 bps YoY drop in quarterly NIM and a slight 5% YoY increase in provisioning expenses.
- According to Q1/25 PBT is expected to account for around 20%–22% of the 2025 full-year PBT target (VND 11 trillion), VIB expects that robust credit growth (target 22%) and accelerated bad debt recovery, supported by the legalization of Resolution 42, will help the bank achieve this goal.
Automotive aftermarket – Potential turning point for distributors in the long term
04-04-2025
: HAX
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- Pure car distributors such as Haxaco, Sovico, City Auto, or multi-industry distributors such as THACO, Vinfast have developed a distribution ecosystem that is ahead of the development of the automobile industry in Vietnam for more than 20 years of operation, specifically the strategies to diversify the auto segments (luxury cars, economy cars), after-sales services (spare parts replacement, vehicle maintenance, insurance/financial services), used car trading centers.
- We believe that companies such as Haxaco and City Auto will continue to promote after-sales activities in the medium term based on (1) customer awareness of maintenance and the rate of cars used by the population inching slightly over the years, (2) "alpha" with other distributors in terms of customer relations, manufacturer relations, (3) the proportion of revenue of the after-sales service segment and the gross margin of Vietnamese distributors is still lower than the industry average in the world.
- We emphasized that Vietnam needs to exploit a turning point in the growth phase of the automobile market to unlock the potential of many business segments in the automobile distribution model, creating opportunities to invest in stocks such as HAX, CTF, SVC.
REE - A Strong Recovery Plan
03-04-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags: REE
- REE targets 2025’s revenue of VND 10,248 billion (+22% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 2,427 billion (+22% YoY). The company expects growth in electricity (+5% YoY), real estate (+84% YoY), electromechanical refrigeration (+23% YoY), and water (+25% YoY). REE plans to distribute VND 1,177 billion in dividends (10% in cash, 15% in shares) and issue 500,000 ESOP shares.
- The company aims to increase installed capacity to 3,000 MW by 2030 (+195%) and 4,000–5,000 MW by 2032–2035. REE will participate in the direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) mechanism and invest in Ring Road 3 and urban railway projects.
Forecast changes in the VNDIAMOND for Q2/2025
02-04-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags: VN30 VNDIAMOND
Changes in the VNDIAMOND Index Constituents: Maintain MWG stock, add CTD stock, place VIB stock on the watchlist for removal, and remove VRE stock.
VN30 Index Constituents Remain Unchanged: Instead, the index will focus on capping sector groups according to GICS Level 1 classification at 40%.
Bancassurance in Vietnam: A Journey of Recovery and Long-Term Growth Potential
01-04-2025
: VCB, ACB, VIB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: VIB ACB VCB
- Bancassurance in Vietnam has experienced robust growth since 2014, following Circular 86/2014, which removed barriers for banks to act as insurance agents. Between 2014 and 2022, insurance premium revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50%, boosting the contribution of service fee income from 7% to 29%. However, since 2023, negative incidents involving misleading advice and coercive insurance sales have triggered a crisis of confidence in the life insurance market.
- Starting in 2022, regulators tightened oversight of insurance operations with the amended Insurance Business Law (2023), Decree 46/2023, Circular 67/2023, and the revised Law on Credit Institutions (2024). These measures aim to enhance transparency, accountability among insurers and banks distributing products, and, most critically, restore customer trust.
- New life insurance gross writien premium in 3Q24 reached VND 5.9 trillion (+3% YoY), while 4Q24 recorded VND 6.5 trillion (-7% YoY), partly due to a 15% decline in the bancassurance channel after TCB terminated its partnership with Manulife in October 2024. Despite the loss of TCB-Manulife (estimated at 13% market share), 4Q24 revenue rose 10% quarter-over-quarter, signaling early recovery signs. New GWP from bancassurance channel stabilized in the second half of 2024 and grew modestly by 3% YoY in 2M25.
- Vietnam’s insurance penetration remains low, with life insurance at 1.3% of GDP and non-life at 0.7% in 2024, compared to 2.7% and 1.2%, respectively, for emerging Asian economies. This underscores significant growth potential, aligned with economic expansion and rising per capita income. The government targets insurance premium revenue of 3.3%-3.5% of GDP by 2030 and 18% life insurance participation by 2025, implying an annual growth rate of 20-25% through 2030.
GMD - Logistics segment expected to recover in 2025
31-03-2025
: GMD
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags:
- In 2024, GMD's net revenue was VND 4,832 billion (+26% YoY), in which revenue from port operations was VND 4,201 billion (+43% YoY), while logistics will contribute VND 632 billion (-25% YoY), accounting for 87% and 13% of total revenue, respectively. Despite the recovery in import and export demand, the logistics sector remains weak.
- From 2018 to 2024, logistics revenue achieved a CAGR of 7%. COGS remained relatively stable, with a CAGR of 5%, but profit margins fluctuated significantly due to the volatility in time charter (TC) rates.
- For 2025, we forecast logistic revenue to reach VND 750 billion (+18% YoY) and gross margin to increase by 8 pps YoY, reaching 39%, this is based on: GMD's two vessels being renewed with TC rates about 50% higher than the previous contract, transportation/warehouse revenue and COGS maintained the same growth rate as in the period 2018 – 2024.
U.S economic outlook remains resilient amid escalating trade uncertainties
28-03-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Consumer and business confidence have weakened as global trade uncertainties reach new highs
- Recent economic data, however, continues to support a scenario of steady U.S. economic growth
TDC – Businesses have room to growth as the real estate market recovers
27-03-2025
: TDC
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: TDC
- Business results in 2024 recovered with revenue and NPAT-MI reaching VND 1,143 billion (+105% YoY) and VND 416 billion, respectively, offsetting the accumulated loss in the previous year.
- The plan is to shift the revenue structure, focusing on the construction segment in the period of 2025 – 2029, making the most of Becamex’s resources in the context of the real estate market is in the process of recovery.
- We believe that TDC is one of the companies that can be monitored during the recovery period of the real estate market, as the stock is trading at the P/B of ~1.0x, which is low compared to the industry average, while the business owns a large land bank in Binh Duong and still has room for growth in the long term.
Binh Duong – A key growth hub in Southern Vietnam’s economic corridor
26-03-2025
: BWE
: Utilities
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- Binh Duong showed exceptional FDI appeal. The province has consistently ranked among the top 10 provinces in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) attraction. In 2024, registered FDI inflows into Binh Duong reached USD 1.9 billion, securing the 6th position nationwide. As of December 31, 2024, Binh Duong ranked second in total registered FDI (trailing only HCMC) with a cumulative FDI inflow of USD 42.5 billion.
- Binh Duong exhibited strong economic and income growth over the past decade. Binh Duong has recorded impressive economic expansion, with its GRDP growth rate consistently outpacing the national GDP growth rate. The province’s per capita GRDP stands at VND 181.2 million (USD 7,190), the highest in Vietnam.
- Key competitive advantages driving success:
- A strategic location with strong connectivity to neighboring provinces, particularly HCMC.
- Advanced industrial and logistics infrastructure.
- Attractive investment policies and a business-friendly environment.
- With these competitive advantages expected to be further leveraged, we believe Binh Duong will sustain its strong economic growth and remain one of the country’s top FDI destinations.
- However, the planned merger of provinces and communes in 2025 could reshape the competitive landscape for Binh Duong’s economic and social development. We are closely monitoring the situation and will provide updates on any significant developments.
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE MAR 2025: CAUTIOUS MONETARY POLICY EASING
25-03-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- From the beginning of March 2025, the SBV ceased the issuance of SBV bills while maintaining liquidity support through collateralized lending via open market operations (OMO). Notably, the extension of OMO loan terms while keeping interest rates unchanged reflects the readiness to provide liquidity to the system when needed.
- On the interbank market, VND lending rates showed a downward trend toward the end of the month. Meanwhile, deposit interest rates declined broadly since late February 2025, with a common decrease of 10-20 basis points.
- The DXY index dropped significantly in March 2025. Meanwhile, the USD/VND exchange rate continued to rise; however, the depreciation pressure on the dong remained at an acceptable level (0.5-1.0% compared to early 2025).
- The risk of Vietnam facing reciprocal tariffs due to its large trade deficit with the U.S. remains and could increase exchange rate pressure in the short term. The reciprocal tariffs under the Trump 2.0 administration, set to be announced on April 2, are expected to be narrower in scope than initially planned. However, the exact targets and extent of the tariffs remain unclear, and they may be implemented immediately.
- As of March 12, credit growth reached 1.24%, higher than the 0.7% increase in the first two months of 2024. Accordingly, Q1 2025 credit growth is expected to align with the full-year target of 16%.
- Over the past month, the restructuring of weak banks continued to accelerate with Decree 69. Specifically, from May 19, 2025, banks undergoing mandatory transfers—including MBB, VPB, and HDB (excluding VCB)—will see their foreign ownership limit raised to 49%, up from the current 30%.
HSG – Cautious plan for short-term difficulties
24-03-2025
: HSG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- During the General Meeting of Shareholders for the 2025 fiscal year, HSG said that the steel sheet industry (especially the export market) may face difficulties, and at the same time, competitive pressure in the domestic market will also increase. Thereby, the Company sets a relatively cautious business plan due to concerns about fluctuations in raw material prices and risks from the export market.
- The company’s strategy is to develop Hoasen Home, the chain of building and finishing materials stores under Hoa Sen Group, in order to become a large-scale supermarket chain of building materials. We believe this is a suitable strategy for HSG in the current period, but in order to effectively develop the Hoasen Home system, the company needs to pay attention to the following: 1/ The capital required to expand the Hoasen Home chain, 2/ Increasing the contribution rate of commercial products to total revenue – the main factor for the long-term sales growth expectations of the Hoasen Home chain.
