PNJ – MONITOR reccomendation in all reciprocal tariff scenarios
18-04-2025
18-04-2025: PNJ
: Retailing
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- We propose three baseline scenarios to provide a relatively comprehensive view of PNJ’s business outlook in light of Vietnam’s macroeconomic landscape, particularly under the condition of the reciprocal tariffs that the US imposes on Vietnam exported goods. These three scenarios correspond to different tariff levels and are accompanied by a sensitivity table that illustrates PNJ’s valuation under each scenario:
- Best scenario: 10% reciprocal tariff. In this case, jewellery consumption growth is expected to remain largely unaffected, averaging 4.1% annually between 2025 and 2029. Under this scenario, we maintain our previous forecasts, although we acknowledge that this projection leans toward the optimistic end relative to what may actually unfold.
- Worst scenario: 46% reciprocal tariff. As jewellery is a discretionary item, we anticipate that the decline in jewellery consumption growth will exceed the general slowdown in retail sales. Despite that, we assume an average annual contraction of 2% in jewelry demand.
- Base case scenario: Tariff level falls between the two above. We have not conducted a detailed forecast for the base case.
- We recommend that investors continue to closely MONITOR PNJ stock under any of these tariff scenarios. Nonetheless, we also recognize that in the short term, PNJ’s share price may be driven more by market sentiment and global macroeconomic developments than by fundamentals. As a result, its market valuation may not accurately reflect its intrinsic value.
117 Oil prices decline but no major concerns: Vietnam’s upstream sector remains in the "safe zone"
17-04-2025
: PVS, PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: Brent crude oil OPEC OPEC+
- Brent crude oil prices for 2025 are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in 2025 due to increased supply pressures and slower demand growth. The United States, Brazil, and Canada are the leading contributors to supply growth, while OPEC+ may adjust production increases in 2H2025.
- Conversely, ongoing US-China trade tensions have reduced global growth prospects, causing organizations such as OPEC and the EIA to lower their oil demand forecasts. Nevertheless, low inventory levels and the flexible production management policy of OPEC+ will mitigate the risk of a sharp decline in oil prices.
- Notably, Brent crude prices are still significantly higher than the breakeven price of USD 55 per barrel for most oil fields in Vietnam. This has allowed oil companies such as PVDrilling, PTSC, and PVEP to maintain strong profitability.
DRC – Uncertain tariff context affects business prospects in key US market
16-04-2025
: DRC
: Automobiles
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: TBR tire DRC
- The proportion of DRC's truck & bus radial tire (TBR) export revenue to the US has inched up from 13.9% to 20.4% in 2024. The U.S. is identified as a strategic market for the DRC in the long term as key markets in the mainland and Brazil have declined sharply due to the intense competition of Chinese and Thai tires over the years.
- The 90-day tax deferral from the Trump administration helps reduce pressure on tire businesses such as the DRC temporarily. The synchronous reciprocal tariff on tire products of other countries is 10% and China's is 145%, which will help maintain DRC's advantage in low selling prices compared to its main competitor, Thailand. We believe that DRC will boost export orders in Q2-2025 – the period when Thai tires are subject to AD tariffs. and "racing" before the final decision for Trump's reciprocal tariffs for all countries in early Q3-2025. DRC's business results this quarter may be more dramatic than the rest of 2025.
- After the tax deferment period from Q3-2025, in the unchanged tax scenario for Vietnam of 46%, the expected price advantage for Thai tires is expected to be "leveled" when the total tax applied to tires of these two countries is similar. DRC will suffer from the dual impact of the decline in the overall market size and have difficulty expanding its market share here. Therefore, the growth of DRC's market share depends on the ability to share the tariff burden for agents compared to competitors in Thailand and Cambodia. We think DRC will choose the strategy of sacrificing profit margins to ensure output.
- At the moment, the tariff variables in the U.S. market or the extent of the decline in market share in the Brazilian/domestic market are unclear, so we move the recommendation of NEUTRAL to the DRC on MONITOR until there is a clearer update on the above issues from the business or the Trump administration.
TRADE UPDATE MAR 2025 - THE IMPACTS OF TARIFF SHOCK ON VIETNAM’S TRADE OUTLOOK
15-04-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Trade growth in Q1/2025 is stable but the trade surplus has narrowed significantly.
- Most export items have increased relatively evenly in Q1. Imports may continue to grow in the short term to have enough inventory to serve the stockpiling of inventories in the US during the 90-day tariff suspension period.
- Vietnam's dependence on US-China trade leads to poor adaptation to the trade war in the short term. In Q1/2025, 30% of Vietnam's exports came from the US market and 38% of Vietnam's imports came from China. These are also the two markets that recorded the strongest growth in exports and imports in Q1/2025.
- As Vietnam heavily depends on international trade (total import-export turnover/GDP is 165% in 2024), especially its dependence on the US in terms of exports and China in terms of imports, the impacts of tariff shocks on global trade are harmful to Vietnam.
Industrial Parks – Caution Amid Headwinds
14-04-2025
: KBC, LHG, SIP, NTC, IDC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Industrial parks
- Asian economies such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand, and Singapore – which are heavily dependent on exports, particularly to the US - are significantly exposed to these aggressive tariff moves by Washington.
- Industrial park companies – whose main customers are FDI enterprises – will be directly affected (in the medium term), in a scenario of reciprocal tariffs. However, we expect to have better prospects, thanks to the following advantages: 1/ Vietnam is making efforts to have better negotiation results with the US government; 2/ FDI enterprises also pay attention to the consumption demand of the Vietnamese market, 3/ Some industrial park enterprises have aimed to attract high-tech FDI.
Escalating U.S tariffs place Fed under dual pressure of inflation and recession risks
11-04-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: FED US Tariff
- U.S. Trade war 2.0: Trump raises the stakes, Asia faces elevated risks
- Fed navigates interest rate dilemma amid tariff storm and market uncertainty
Fisheries industry – The seafood industry after the expiration of the tax deferment period
10-04-2025
: VHC, FMC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- The 90-day tax deferral from the US has helped reduce pressure on the fisheries industry. By maintaining a synchronous reciprocal tax rate on seafood products of other countries of 10% and China to 145%, the pangasius industry benefits strongly when it accounts for 11% of the market share of tilapia and does not have to share market share for US pollock when the price of pangasius is equivalent to US pollock. For the shrimp industry, the impact do not change as the tax rate during this tax deferral period of other countries are the same.
- After the tax deferment period, in the scenario of a reciprocal tax of 10% and China at 145%, pangasius export volume will increase by 35% compared to 2024. In the unchanged reciprocal tax scenario with Vietnam of 46%, pangasius export volume through the US decreased by up to 10% after sharing volume for US pollock and occupy market share of tilapia. However, opportunities will open up in the EU market and difficulties in the Chinese market as tilapia is difficult to export to the US.
- For the shrimp industry, if retaliatory tariffs remain unchanged after the suspension period, Vietnam will likely face challenges competing in the U.S. market and may be forced to shift exports to alternative destinations such as the EU and Asean. As other exporters redirect shipments to the U.S., competitive pressure in these markets is expected to ease. Moreover, with global shrimp supply projected to increase by only 2% YoY, selling prices in alternative markets may remain more favorable and competitive for Vietnamese exporters.
- The export volume of pangasius by businesses to the US will depend on their perception of export risks to the US when the tax rate fluctuates greatly. However, we believe that pangasius will still be sought after in the U.S. thanks to the cheapest price among fish besides US pollock in the U.S.
Vietnam's Real estate market – indirectly affected by the US tariff policy
09-04-2025
: KDH, NLG, DXG
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: US tariffs Real estate
- The impact of US tariffs on Vietnam's real estate market is indirect, clearly differentiated by product segment and time.
- In the scenario that the United States will apply a reciprocal tax policy to Vietnam, the real estate segment around the industrial park is considered to be the most affected, with the decline starting from 2026 when FDI inflows tend to shift.
- In the long term, the mid-end real estate and social housing segments in tier I cities are expected to be segments with stable prospects thanks to real housing demand, connectivity infrastructure and interest rate support policies.
VIB - While credit expansion in Q1/25 shows a positive outlook, narrowing NIM limits the growth of net interest income
08-04-2025
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: VIB
- Q4/24 PBT reached VND 2.4 trillion (+20% QoQ and +1% YoY), bringing 2024 full-year PBT to VND 9 trillion (-16% YoY). The underwhelming annual result was mainly due to (1) 7% YoY decline in TOI stemming from a significant NIM contraction (-130 bps YoY) and (2) 50% YoY drop in bancassurance income, and (3) 9% YoY increase in operating expenses.
- Q1/25F PBT is projected to decline by 4% YoY, primarily due to a sharp 50 bps YoY drop in quarterly NIM and a slight 5% YoY increase in provisioning expenses.
- According to Q1/25 PBT is expected to account for around 20%–22% of the 2025 full-year PBT target (VND 11 trillion), VIB expects that robust credit growth (target 22%) and accelerated bad debt recovery, supported by the legalization of Resolution 42, will help the bank achieve this goal.
Automotive aftermarket – Potential turning point for distributors in the long term
04-04-2025
: HAX
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- Pure car distributors such as Haxaco, Sovico, City Auto, or multi-industry distributors such as THACO, Vinfast have developed a distribution ecosystem that is ahead of the development of the automobile industry in Vietnam for more than 20 years of operation, specifically the strategies to diversify the auto segments (luxury cars, economy cars), after-sales services (spare parts replacement, vehicle maintenance, insurance/financial services), used car trading centers.
- We believe that companies such as Haxaco and City Auto will continue to promote after-sales activities in the medium term based on (1) customer awareness of maintenance and the rate of cars used by the population inching slightly over the years, (2) "alpha" with other distributors in terms of customer relations, manufacturer relations, (3) the proportion of revenue of the after-sales service segment and the gross margin of Vietnamese distributors is still lower than the industry average in the world.
- We emphasized that Vietnam needs to exploit a turning point in the growth phase of the automobile market to unlock the potential of many business segments in the automobile distribution model, creating opportunities to invest in stocks such as HAX, CTF, SVC.
REE - A Strong Recovery Plan
03-04-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags: REE
- REE targets 2025’s revenue of VND 10,248 billion (+22% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 2,427 billion (+22% YoY). The company expects growth in electricity (+5% YoY), real estate (+84% YoY), electromechanical refrigeration (+23% YoY), and water (+25% YoY). REE plans to distribute VND 1,177 billion in dividends (10% in cash, 15% in shares) and issue 500,000 ESOP shares.
- The company aims to increase installed capacity to 3,000 MW by 2030 (+195%) and 4,000–5,000 MW by 2032–2035. REE will participate in the direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) mechanism and invest in Ring Road 3 and urban railway projects.
Forecast changes in the VNDIAMOND for Q2/2025
02-04-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags: VN30 VNDIAMOND
Changes in the VNDIAMOND Index Constituents: Maintain MWG stock, add CTD stock, place VIB stock on the watchlist for removal, and remove VRE stock.
VN30 Index Constituents Remain Unchanged: Instead, the index will focus on capping sector groups according to GICS Level 1 classification at 40%.
