DPR – Rubber segment leads business results in the first quarter of 2025
15-05-2025
15-05-2025: DPR
: Industrial Land RE
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: DPR Rubber
- In the first quarter of 2025, DPR recorded revenue of VND 203 billion (-56%QoQ, +9%YoY), profit after tax - parent shareholders (NPAT-MI) recorded VND 65 billion (-41%QoQ, +25%YoY). Gross margin reached 47%.
- Revenue from the rubber segment increased by 13% over the same period, mainly because the price of DPR rubber sold in the first quarter of 2025 continued to increase and remained at a high level, reaching 57.8 million VND/ton (+41%YoY) while production remained unchanged, reaching 1,348 tons (+0.89%YoY).
- World rubber prices fell in the first months of the second quarter of 2025 due to US-China trade tensions, which will put short-term psychological pressure on DPR revenue; However, thanks to seasonal factors and the trend of price recovery, the impact is considered temporary and not too strong on the average rubber price for the whole year.
92 Comparison of domestic natural gas and LNG fuel sources
14-05-2025
: POW, NT2, GAS
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- According to the revised Power Plan VIII, the electricity demand of the whole system is expected to reach 500 billion kWh by 2030 (+7%/year), requiring an increase in installed capacity of 12%/year. Gas power increased the most (+21%/year), mainly thanks to projects using LNG instead of domestic gas.
- Domestic gas production is declining due to old wells, causing the supply to be limited in the short term. In contrast, imported LNG is highly flexible, helping to diversify the supply. However, the cost is higher due to liquefaction, transportation, and regasification. Vietnam is investing heavily in LNG ports and reprocessing stations to be able to provide enough fuel for both power generation and industrial production
- Domestic gas prices gradually increase at 2-4%/year, to 9.5 USD/million BTU (Q1/2025). This is due to the gradual depletion of supply and the steady increase in transportation costs
- LNG prices fluctuated sharply in 2020–2022, rising to $34/million BTU due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, then falling rapidly to $11.9 in 2024. In 2025, LNG prices may recover slightly to ~$14 but will fall to ~$11.5 in 2026. In the medium and long term, LNG is expected to be close to or lower than domestic gas, creating advantages for LNG power development.
VNM – Looking forward to the "new GT shirt" to support the recovery of market share
13-05-2025
: VNM
: Consumer Durables
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- VNM's Q1-2025 performance is below our expectations with net revenue of VND 12,935 bn (-8.3% YoY), (of which domestic sales accounting for ~80% of revenue, -12.9% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 1,569 bn (-28.5% YoY) due to the impact of the restructuring of the GT channel combined with unfavorable price movement from input milk powder and discounted/advertising costs maintaining a high level.
- We look forward to a difficult year 2025 for VNM with many unclarified variables around the efficiency of GT channel innovation and cost structure management. Therefore, we temporarily change our recommendation to MONITOR with VNM stock and set some specific valuation scenarios.
SIP – Conservative targets for the year ahead
12-05-2025
: SIP
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 1Q2025, SIP recorded positive result, with revenue and gross profit of VND 1.94 tn (USD 77.6mn, +6% YoY, -6%QoQ) and VND 320bn (USD 12.8mn, +17%YoY,+12%QoQ), respectively. Electricity and water distribution for industrial parks (IPs) continues to be the main revenue-generating sector for SIP, with revenue and gross profit to reach VND 1.6 trillion (USD64mn, +7%YoY) and VND 133 billion (USD 5.3mn, +9%YoY), respectively. In terms of sales, the company continued to actively seek leasing clients at Phuoc Dong Industrial Park (Tay Ninh), securing two new contracts with a total leased area of approximately 16 hectares in January 2025
- For 2025 AGM, The company has set a relatively cautious business plan, with projected revenue of VND 5,657 billion (-27% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 832 billion (-35%). Despite industry challenges, including risks from U.S. tariff policies, the company remains confident in achieving its business plan for the year; and current clients are expected to maintain their land leasing plans in the near future.
China’s economy faces mounting growth challenges, prompting decisive policy actions to restore market confidence
09-05-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: China PBoC Policy
- China’s growth has remained heavily reliant on early-stage export momentum, with downside risks becoming more apparent from Q2 onward.
- A comprehensive stimulus package has been deployed, aiming to revive the underlying growth engine.
Seaport industry – Growth expectations for 2025 weaken as the US erects tariff barriers
08-05-2025
: VSC, GMD, HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports GMD HAH VSC
- In April 2024, the estimated export and import values of seaborne container goods reached USD 21 bn (+24% YoY) and USD 15 bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The faster export growth indicates a rush to ship goods, while importers remained cautious in sourcing production materials amid the temporary suspension of the US reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese goods.
- Container throughput in Hai Phong and Vung Tau recorded solid growth in Q1-FY25, reaching 661 thousand TEUs (+13% YoY) and 598 thousand TEUs (+22% YoY), respectively. This trend aligns with the trade momentum observed in the early months of the year.
- The global trade outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to tariff barriers and volatile trade policy under President Trump’s second term. According to Drewry, global container traffic may decline by 1% YoY, driven by rising commodity prices, increasing input costs, and falling real income.
- In Vietnam, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 in April 2025 from 50.5 in the previous month, signaling mounting challenges for port cargo flows in 2H2025.
PVD – Q1 Earnings impacted by scheduled rig maintenance
07-05-2025
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: Drilling rig
- We note that PVD’s Q1 2025 earnings were impacted by scheduled rig maintenance, leading to a slight revenue decline. However, net profit remained stable, supported by positive contributions from well-related services and financial income.
- For 2025-2026, we expect Malaysia and Thailand to remain key markets, with long-term contracts making up a large portion of PVD’s operations.
- On investment strategy, we see PVD taking strategic steps to enhance competitiveness, including adding new capacity (PVD VIII) and divesting less efficient assets (PVD 11). Meanwhile, Vietnam’s rig market is offering strong opportunities, with large oil and gas projects underway, supporting PVD’s sustainable growth in the coming period.
VHC – Positive business performance in Q1/2025
06-05-2025
: VHC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q1-2025 reach VND 2,648 billion (-7% YoY; -17% QoQ) due to revenue from the pangasius segment decreasing by 7% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in export volume while the average selling price converted to VND is estimated to increase by 9% YoY (USD/VND exchange rate is estimated to increase by 3% YoY).
- Gross profit margin improved on the low base of Q1-2024, reaching 12.7% (+340 bps YoY) mainly due to an estimated 9% YoY increase in average VND-converted selling prices (USD/VND exchange rate is estimated to increase by 3% YoY) and a slight increase in cost of goods when the selling price of raw fish is estimated to increase by 12% YoY and revenue from products with high gross margins such as the C&G segment decreased.
- Our nearest target price is 73,300 VND/share, which is equivalent to a BUY recommendation after the stock price fell sharply in the recent period before the tariff information. We will update our business results and maintain our BUY recommendation with an estimated target price of not lower than 62,500 VND/share as we still maintain VHC's sales ability in the US market.
IMP – NEUTRAL reccomendation under negligible impact of reciprocal tariffs
05-05-2025
: IMP
: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology
: Quyen Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q1/2025, IMP posted net revenue of VND 594 billion (USD 24mn), marking a 21% year-on-year increase. Both the OTC and ETC channels saw solid growth, rising 25% and 27% year-on-year, respectively. Net profit reached VND 74 billion (USD 3mn), up 20% from the same period last year. EBIT and net profit margins held steady at 15.7% and 12.5%, respectively on a year-over-year basis, underscoring IMP’s consistent cost control and operational efficiency.
- We believe the impact of the US reciprocal tax policy on IMP’s operations is indirect and, at present, limited. However, the tariff outlook remains uncertain.
- Our forecasts and valuation for IMP are currently under review. We will update investors as soon as possible. The current target price for IMP stands at VND 44,900 per share. Based on the market price as of April 29, 2025, we maintain a NEUTRAL rating on the stock.
OCB – Shrinking non-interest income and deteriorating asset quality
29-04-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: OCB
Q1/25 PBT recorded VND 893 billion, a sharp decline compared to the previous quarter and Q1/24 (-39% QoQ, -26% YoY), achieving only 17% of the full-year target (over VND 5.3 trillion), mainly due to a contraction in non-interest income including FX trading income (VND 7 billion, -94% YoY) and government bond invesment (-VND 100 billion vs. a gain of VND 15 billion in Q1/24).
Credit growth reached 2.2% YTD (Q1/24: 2.5% YTD), with slower growth in the corporate lending portfolio (2.2% YTD vs. 5.3% YTD in Q1/24), while retail credit showed a significantly better performance YoY, growing 2.3% YTD (Q1/24: -2.4% YTD). NIM stood at 3.2% this quarter, with an 80 bps decline QoQ due to: (1) 60 bps drop in asset yields from lower lending rates to support customers, (2) 30 bps rise in funding costs from increased mobilization efforts since Q1, (3) sharp rise in new NPLs formation.
Asset quality deteriorated as new NPLs formation surged (VND 1.6 trillion). Combined with a low provisioning level this quarter (credit cost dropped to 0.2%), this led to the lowest adjusted NPL coverage buffer (including debt pending for foreclosed assets settlement) since 2019, at just 30.5%.
We revise our 2025F PBT forecast to VND 5,030 billion (+26% YoY), with expected credit growth of 20.4% and NIM of 3.4%. OCB stock is valued at VND 12,600/share, with a current P/B of 0.82x based on closing price as of April 29, 2024.
NKG – Transition from export to domestic market
28-04-2025
: NKG
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In 1Q2025, NKG reported revenue of VND 4,090 billion (-23% YoY, +5% QoQ), with coated steel consumption volume estimated at 205,000 tons (-10% YoY, +4% QoQ). The company saw a slight recovery in production volume by focusing on the domestic market, achieving a domestic sales volume of 109,000 tons (+38% QoQ). The export market’s share decreased to approximately 47% of total consumption. The gross profit margin remained stable at 6.4% (compared to 6.7% in Q4/2024), with gross profit reaching VND 263 billion (-13% QoQ), supported by stable raw material and finished product prices (HRC prices steady at USD 500-510/ton in Q1).
- NKG recorded the 1Q25 net profit after tax (NPAT) for the parent company of VND 65 billion (+253% QoQ), reflecting a recovery from the underwhelming business performance in Q4/2024.
- At the 2025 Annual General Meeting, NKG outlined a cautious business plan, targeting revenue of VND 23,000 billion (+12% YoY) and profit before tax of VND 440 billion (-21% YoY). On the investment front, the company is prioritizing the completion of the Phu My steel plant in 2025, with operations expected to commence in Q1/2026
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE APRIL 2025: IMPACT OF THE TARIFF SHOCK ON CREDIT GROWTH AND EXCHANGE RATES
25-04-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV continued net injection via the OMO channel in April 2025, with a net injection of VND 16.8 trillion (as of April 24, 2025). Demand for longer-term loans in the open market was more evident during the month.
- The interbank market remained relatively stable and did not react significantly to the tariff shock announced by the Trump administration on April 2.
- The previous downtrend in deposit rates has paused. As of April 23, 2025, the average 12-month deposit rate had decreased by about 0.12 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. In contrast, lending rates fell more sharply, by approximately 0.6 percentage points in the first three months of 2025, according to SBV estimates.
- Credit grew positively in Q1/2025. However, the tariff shock may negatively affect credit in the manufacturing and consumption sectors in the coming months.
- In a worst-case scenario where Vietnam's exports face a 46% tariff entering the U.S. market, causing declines in exports and GDP growth, we expect the SBV to implement support measures such as debt deferrals/rescheduling to minimize bad debt risks—similar to the COVID-19 period or the Yagi typhoon disaster. Achieving the 16% credit growth target in 2025 would be difficult under this scenario.
- The USD has weakened sharply since Trump announced retaliatory tariffs, which is favorable for the USD/VND exchange rate. However, uncertainty around Vietnam’s final tariff treatment after negotiations creates concerns about exports and foreign investment flows, triggering pressure on the USDVND stability.
- In the short term, SBV has room to manage VND depreciation within a 3–5% band. In the negative scenario, a 46% tariff on exports could cause stronger VND depreciation to offset export market tariff pressure.
