Forecast changes in the VN30 and VNFIN LEAD for Q3/2025
02-07-2025
: VDS
: Financial Services
: Huong Le
Tags: ETF VN30 VNFIN LEAD DGC BVH
- The HOSE-Index Construction and Management Rules Version 4.0, issued on December 30, 2024, will officially take effect inthe HOSE-Index’s Q3 2025 review.
- The VN30 index will see changes in its component stocks: DGC will be added, while BVH will be removed. Accordingly, weestimate that funds tracking this index will buy 1.9 million DGC shares and sell approximately 500,000 BVH shares duringthis restructuring.
- The VNFIN LEAD index will also undergo a change in its constituents, with LPB and SSB being removed and no new stocks added. The only ETF tracking the VNFIN LEAD index has recorded a performance of 11.7% YTD.
SAB – The cash dividend stands out as the primary highlight
01-07-2025
: SAB
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: SAB
- SAB delivered a weak Q1-FY25 result, with net revenue reaching VND 5,811 bn (-34.9% QoQ, -19.1% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 793 bn (-20.5% YoY). The decline was primarily due to Tet-related sales being concentrated in Q4-FY24, as the 2025 Lunar New Year fell earlier (in January), along with tighter consumer beer spending driven by Decree 168. Additionally, SAB completed the “Sabibeco” transaction, which incurred a one-off financial cost of VND 91 bn.
- A bright spot in SAB’s otherwise subdued Q1 performance was the reduction in input costs. The company had fully consumed its higher-cost raw material inventory in 2024, and starting in 2025, input prices have returned to average levels. This tailwind is expected to be more evident in upcoming quarters as one-off financial expenses no longer recur.
- With SAB’s business outlook entering a saturation phase post-COVID and the looming impact of a sharp increase in special consumption taxes, the key investment highlight lies in its steadily rising cash dividend payouts. SAB has gradually increased its dividend payout ratio since the post-COVID period—when the beer industry began to show signs of stagnation—ranging from 60% to 120%. Dividends are funded by the company’s annual net profit and a sizably retained earnings balance of approximately VND 9,200 bn.
- SAB is well-suited for dividend-focused investment strategies, offering a dividend yield of 10.4% per annum. It also appeals to value-oriented investors seeking opportunities in undervalued stocks following sharp market corrections—particularly as SAB’s market price gradually approaches its fair value of VND 48,000 per share, which already reflects the anticipated headwinds in 2025.
Legalization of Resolution 42: Impacts and Opportunities for the Banking Sector
30-06-2025
: ACB, VIB, VPB, STB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The three core provisions of Resolution 42 include: (1) the right to seize collateral, (2) the attachment of assets used as collateral for non-performing loans (NPLs) by parties subject to enforcement, and (3) the return of collateral used as evidence in criminal cases. The National Assembly approved these provisions during its 9th Session of the 15th Tenure on June 27, 2025, and will take effect from October 15, 2025.
- We believe the most significant impact of legalization of Resolution 42 lies in the provision granting the right to seize collateral, which enhances borrowers’ awareness of debt repayment obligations, particularly for NPLs, due to the legal pressure to surrender collateral. Once a loan is classified as non-performing and the borrower is unable to repay, the borrower is required to voluntarily surrender the collateral to the bank for processing (in compliance with legal conditions for seizure) or to dispose of the collateral to settle the debt. This enables banks to avoid initiating lawsuits in cases where the securing party does not cooperate, thereby expediting the collateral recovery process.
- The provision on asset attachment for collateral related to enforcement ensures alignment between the rights of secured creditors, such as credit institutions, and the execution of judgments or decisions by competent authorities. It prevents civil enforcement agencies from attaching pledged or mortgaged assets when the debtor has no other collateral available or when available collateral is insufficient, thereby safeguarding the interests of creditors.
- Regarding the provision on the return of collateral used as evidence in criminal cases, once the evidence verification process is completed and deemed not to affect the case, the competent procedural authority is responsible for returning the collateral to the secured party upon request. This protects the rights of credit institutions to process collateral and accelerates the recovery and resolution of NPLs.
- The codification of Resolution 42 is expected to deliver broad benefits to the banking sector in addressing NPLs. Furthermore, we anticipate that banks with a high retail lending portfolio may benefit more significantly from the seizure and processing of collateral, provided the collateral has clear and complete legal documentation, free from disputes or legal restrictions. Retail loan collateral is typically less complex and easier to process, significantly reducing the costs associated with NPL resolution. This eliminates the need for extensive resource allocation across multiple locations for legal proceedings to seize collateral, as was required after Resolution 42 expired.
4M2025 Rubber Market – Short-Term Adjustment Due to the Impact of Tariffs
27-06-2025
: DPR, PHR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: Rubber
- World rubber prices at the beginning of the second quarter of 2025 adjusted down due to the impact of US-China tariff tensions. However, the impact is only short-term and the price has shown signs of recovery.
- Global rubber supply generally continues to be low with declining output in major exporting countries (Indo, Malay, Vietnam,...). Meanwhile, consumption demand remains stable, maintaining an imbalance between supply and demand.
- In the context of rubber prices continuing to recover from the short-term effects of tariffs, along with the example of continued supply shortages while demand remains stable are the reasons why we think rubber prices are likely to continue to recover and anchor at a high level in the second half of 2025.
POW-Business Results Q1/2025 led by Southeast gas-fired cluster
26-06-2025
: POW
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q1/2025, POW revenue and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPATMI) increased by 31% and 60% YoY, respectively.
- The Company's dispatched output increased by 20% YoY, led by the recovery of Nhon Trach 1 (+3,446% YoY) and Nhon Trach 2 (+291% YoY).
- The Company's average selling price increased by 8% YoY despite the total electricity market price decreasing by 17% YoY, coming from the Company's contracted output increasing by 55% YoY.
- Stable gas and coal fuel prices helped POW's gross profit improve by 117% YoY, equivalent to a 4 pps YoY increase in gross profit margin.
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE JUN 2025: THE AMPLE VND LIQUIDITY AMID TIGHT USD SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE
25-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) conducted net liquidity withdrawals for the third consecutive month in June 2025. A notable development this month was the SBV’s resumption of bill issuance after more than three months of suspension, driven by a sharp decline in overnight lending rates.
- Credit growth accelerated significantly from the end of Q1 and maintained steady momentum throughout the first two months of Q2. While deposit interest rates remained relatively stable and credit growth was robust, commercial banks actively raised capital through bond issuance at a scale double that of the same period last year.
- The USD/VND exchange rate continued to move contrary to the trend of other Asian currencies in June 2025. The approaching expiration of delaying reciprocal tariff, combined with a renewed negative VND-USD interest rate differential in June, pushed pressure on the exchange rate outlook. However, the current level of depreciation remains under control along with the SBV’s proactive interventions. These pressures could gradually ease if negotiation outcomes align with expectations and the SBV intervenes in the open market to narrow the VND-USD interest rate gap.
- Nonetheless, in the second half of 2025, the foreign currency supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight due to three factors: 1. The trade surplus has been gradually shrinking in recent months; 2. Foreign investment flows are shifting as tariff-related uncertainties become clearer; and 3. Economic growth pressures are prompting increased credit and public investment, raising concerns that inflation expectations may rise in the future, potentially boosting demand for USD hoarding
Fertilizer Industry – Fertilizer Price Trends Amid Middle East Tensions
24-06-2025
: DCM, DPM, BFC, DDV, LAS
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Middle East tensions are pushing up fertilizer prices, especially in the short term. The extent of the impact depends on the course of the conflict and there are differences between the types of fertilizers. If the war escalates, the increase in oil prices will lead to gas and urea prices, which in turn will have a chain effect on other fertilizers due to the connection with urea fertilizers. However, urea fertilizers are the most affected, while other fertilizers such as phosphate and NPK are less volatile.
- Urea prices have been steadily rising since the Iran-Israel tensions occured and lead to gas costs rising and a 16 percent shortage of urea production supplies from Egypt and Iran. However, compared to the Russia-Ukraine war (2/2022), the impact this time is lower because China has resumed exports and is not yet the peak fertilizer consumption season.
- The selling price of phosphate fertilizers (MAP, DAP, LAS) is expected to increase more slowly than the price of Urea as relatively stable input costs due to the decrease in sulfuric acid prices to partially compensate for the increase in liquid ammonia prices.
- The selling price of NPK has difficulty in increasing the price even though the price of single and dual inputs has increased rapidly. The reason is strong competition from countries such as China and Russia. In addition, from July 1, 2025, the EU's 40% import tariff imposed on Russia will cause Russia to push to other markets such as Vietnam.
- In the short term, Urea fertilizer enterprises such as DCM and DPM have a greater impact on the selling price than DDV, LAS and NPK fertilizer businesses such as BFC.
Steel industry – The Green Steel, a trend to watch
23-06-2025
: HPG, HSG, GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- For large-scale markets like the EU, the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), where importers purchasing carbon credits (based on emissions), which will reduce the cost advantage of Asian steel producers using BOF technology. producers are shifting towards green steel trends: replacing current technologies to reduce carbon emissions (CO2) during production and aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050.
- In Vietnam, several companies with strong positions in the export market have implemented initial measures to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby maintaining competitive advantages in major markets. These measures include: 1/ Emissions Inventory at Manufacturing Facilities; 2/ Optimization of Fuel Consumption in Production Activities (Direct and Indirect).
OCB - Optimistic profit outlook for 2Q2025, driven by an improvement in total operating income
20-06-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- 2Q25 PBT is projected to grow positively, reaching nearly VND 990 billion (+11% QoQ and +10% YoY), supported by 7% YTD credit growth and a 5bps QoQ improvement in NIM to 3.2%. Non-interest income expanded significantly from a low base in the previous quarter (+260% QoQ and +38% YoY). Provisioning expenses increased substantially (+94% QoQ and +75% YoY), equivalent to a credit cost ratio of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% in 1Q24).
- For 2025, we forecast PBT to reach VND 4.6 trillion (+14% YoY), driven by robust non-interest income growth (+84% YoY). Meanwhile, 2025F NIM is expected to contract by approximately 30bps YoY to 3.2%, resulting in slower net interest income growth (+8% YoY), and credit cost is expected to rise 15% YoY.
Seaports industry – Vietnam's role in global supply chains
19-06-2025
: GMD, HAH, VSC
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports
- The US reciprocal tariffs imposed on Vietnamese goods reduce competitiveness, but the difference is not enough to cause supply chains to leave Vietnam.
- We expect that the group of goods accounting for a high proportion of container production such as textiles and garments will still be produced in Vietnam, helping to maintain the growth of port throughput.
U.S. public debt soars - U.S. housing market slows down
18-06-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- U.S. public debt continues to rise sharply, reaching 97.8% of GDP in fiscal year 2024, with projections to surpass the post-World War II record by 2030. Despite rising borrowing costs, the Trump administration persists with an expansionary fiscal policy. The large-scale tax and spending reform bill passed in May 2025 is expected to add an additional $3.8 trillion to public debt from 2025-2034. Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating for the first time, from Aaa to Aa1, increasing borrowing costs and reducing the attractiveness of U.S. Treasury bonds.
- The U.S. housing market is undergoing a significant shift from a supply shortage to a localized surplus. The increase in homes for sale and higher mortgage rates have dampened purchasing power, creating the largest supply-demand surplus since 2013. This has led to a slowdown in home price growth, with prices rising only 4.1% in March 2025, a sharp decrease compared to the previous hot growth period.
Gold Market Policy Turns – A New Gateway for Manufacturing and Retail?
17-06-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- Vietnam's gold market has recently become more vibrant than ever, driven not only by global changes but also by the Vietnamese Government’s newly proposed gold market management policies at the end of May. These proposals are strategic, focused, and long-term in nature - marking a shift in mindset and approach with the aim of tightening control over the gold market, curbing speculation, and repositioning gold as a true financial asset. These changes are expected to have a meaningful impact on the supply of input materials for jewelry manufacturers and retailers, especially given growing concerns over securing sufficient production reserves.
- In the first half of 2025, gold prices repeatedly hit new record highs, leading to a significant increase in the price gap between domestic and international gold, peaking at an estimated 16.2%. Despite this, local demand for gold as a store of value remained strong, driven by expectations of further price increases. Recently, however, this gap has started to narrow, reflecting positive shifts in both policy and market supply - demand dynamics.
- Alongside optimism for a more transparent information and trading mechanism, and a stable supply of raw materials for jewelry producers, we believe the biggest remaining “bottleneck” lies in market trust - a constraint that will take time to gradually “ease”.
02-07-2025
103 
