21-11-2025VNINDEX1654.93-1.06-0.06% HNXIndex263.13-1.10-0.42% UPCOM118.69-0.82-0.69% VN301899.892.430.13% VN1001802.47-1.92-0.11% HNX30577.840.070.01% VNXALL2831.78-2.95-0.10% VNX503125.36-3.04-0.10% VNMID2280.74-15.52-0.68% VNSML1524.75-3.95-0.26% DPR – Positive profit outlook in Q3/2025
02-10-2025
: DPR
: Chemicals
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: DPR Rubber
- Accumulated in 8M2025, DPR's total rubber production reached 8,339 tons (+38% YoY), thanks to stable mining output and doubling of procurement over the same period.
- The company made a positive product restructuring, with the proportion of SVR 3L, 5 and Centrifugal rubber lines increasing sharply, while SVR 10 and 20 decreased, helping DPR maintain the average selling price of 8M2025 over VND 50 million/ton.
- We expect Q3/2025 business results to be positive, with revenue estimated at VND 328 billion (+63% QoQ, -6% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 93 billion (+111% YoY), thanks to the main contribution from the rubber segment and support from tree liquidation, with gross profit margin remaining at 39%.
DPM – Business performance Q3/2025 expect to grew strongly thanks to high selling prices
01-10-2025
: DPM
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue in Q2/2025 reached VND 5,301 billion (+34% YoY), driven by strong growth in NPK and other segments while Urea segment experienced lower growth. Gross margin in Q2/2025 reached 17% compared to 13.8% in the same period thanks to the Urea segment when the selling price of Urea increased sharply by 15% YoY and input gas prices decreased by 6% YoY. Net margin reached 7.6% compared to 5.8% in the same period, due to the higher gross margin and lower growth rate of selling expenses than revenue. Since then, NPAT-MI in Q2/2025 reached VND 403 billion (+75% YoY).
- Business performance in Q3/2025 and the second half of 2025 is expected to be positive as the high selling price is expected to remain at a high base level due to the impact of VAT and exchange rate increases, and the selling price of agricultural products such as coffee and rice is still anchored at a high level over the same period. Consumption volume in Q3/2025 is expected to grow by 39% in the NPK segment while the Urea segment is equivalent to the same period over the same period.
- Gross margin in Q3/2025 is expected to reach 19% from 11.7% in the same period, due to a 26% YoY increase in selling prices while input gas prices are estimated to decrease by 10% YoY. However, selling expenses are expected to grow by 30% YoY as businesses promote new sales policies offering attractive discounts. Since then, revenue and NPAT-MI in Q3/2025 are estimated at VND 4,462 billion (+45% YoY) and VND 362 billion (+475% YoY), respectively. Revenue in 2025 is expected to reach VND 17,757 billion (+31% YoY) and NPAT-MI is estimated at VND 1,230 billion (+125% YoY).
HDB – Robust growth based on the potential for credit expansion
30-09-2025
: HDB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Consolidated PBT in Q2/2025 reached VND 4.7 trillion (+14% YoY), completing 47% of the full-year target. HDB’s consolidated profit this quarter grew at a moderate pace, although total operating income increased strongly by 40% YoY, as the bank significantly raised provisioning, up nearly 270% YoY.
- We revise our 2025F consolidated PBT forecast to over VND 20.3 trillion, up 22% YoY, with key assumption changes including (1) credit growth rising to 25.9%, (2) NIM adjusted down by 10bps to 4.7%, (3) non-interest income expanding 33% versus the previous forecast, and (4) credit cost increasing 56% amid asset quality risks.
DIG – Preparing for the new cycle
29-09-2025
: DIG
: Real Estate
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: RE
- DIG recorded revenue and gross profit of VND 1.8 trillion (+111% YoY) and VND 467 billion (+197% YoY), respectively, primarily driven by the transfer of the Lam Ha Center Point project (formerly Ha Nam) in Q3. Regarding the business outlook for Q4 2025, the company is processing local procedures to enable the transfer of 30 hectares at the Dai Phuoc Eco-Tourism Urban Area project (Dong Nai).
- In 2026, the company will focus on completing land clearance for large-scale projects, including the Long Tan Eco-Tourism Urban Area (332 ha, Dong Nai), Northern Vung Tau Urban Area (91 ha, former Vung Tau), Phu My Residential Area (33 ha, former Vung Tau). By the end of 2025, the company’s cash balance is expected to reach approximately VND 5,000 billion, facilitating its investment plans.
Proactively vaccinated: Private services close the gaps of expanded program on immunization (EPI)
26-09-2025
: FRT
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: Vaccination FRT
- Since 1974, vaccination has prevented 154 million deaths, including 146 million in children under 5, and 101 million of them in infants. Despite being devastating, COVID-19 marked a turning point of the vaccine industry, boosting public awareness of the importance of disease prevention and the lifesaving role of vaccines.
- Vietnam joined WHO’s EPI in 1981 and rolled it out nationwide in 1985. As a result, vaccination coverage for children under one year old in Vietnam has consistently exceeded 90%. However, this rate remains lower than in some countries (Malaysia 94%, Singapore 97%, Korea 97%, US 93%). Adult vaccination coverage reached only 1% by 2022, compared with 34% in Thailand and 66% in Singapore (KPMG). Coverage for high-value vaccines such as HPV, pneumococcal, shingles, and seasonal influenza remains below 5% (B&Company); HPV among adolescent girls is 12% (lower than 80% in Malaysia).
- Limitations of curative care became evident during pandamic: Hospitals were overwhelmed, with shortages of beds, medical staff, and pharmaceuticals. This proved the important role of preventive medicine. However, investment rate of preventive medicine/curative medicine is currently 15/85, which created a significant imbalance, despite the fact that every 1 unit of budget allocated to preventive medicine can have an impact equivalent to 10 units spent on curation medicine.
- The private vaccination market has been rapidly expanding, driven by rising awareness and proactive demand for prevention, as unmet needs beyond the EPI. Two main factors underpin this: (1) Limited coverage outside the child population and low uptake among adults; (2) Rising demand for premium services from the urban and middle class.
Monetary market Update Sep 2025: Balance in the short term
25-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV continued to manage liquidity through collateralized lending in September, with the main trend during the month being issuance to rebalance maturing loans. The outstanding balance of the reverse repo operation fell by 29% compared to the end of August but remained at a high level.
- Alongside the reduction in lending through the SBV’s collateralized channel, interbank market interest rates also declined over the past month.
- Following the Fed’s 25-basis-point policy rate cut at its September 17 meeting, the average overnight USD lending rate also fell. The interest rate differential between USD and VND has become almost negligible.
- In the first half of 2025, credit flows have yet to show any new drivers of growth, with credit growth momentum still coming from: 1. Supporting industries/high-tech enterprises; 2. Trade & transportation; and 3. Securities & Real Estate.
- Regarding targeted credit packages, except for the agricultural and rural lending program, which has been fully disbursed and had its limit raised to VND185 trillion, programs for social housing or infrastructure/digital technology have seen relatively low disbursement rates.
- The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25% at its September 2025 meeting. However, the meeting’s results brought new expectations of further rate cuts in the near future. The market currently anticipates two more Fed rate cuts at the October and December meetings.
- Last month, the SBV intervened to guide the exchange rate, with commercial banks registering for about USD1.5 billion in non-cancellable forward FX purchases. Along with the decline of the USD, depreciation pressure on the VND also eased from mid-September.
NKG – Efforts in the domestic market
24-09-2025
: NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- In Q2/2025, NKG posted revenue of VND 3,808 billion (-33% YoY, -7% QoQ), with galvanized steel output at 202 thousand tons (-16% YoY, -2% QoQ), mainly pressured by weakness in the export market, which typically contributes around 70% of its annual sales volume. NKG’s market share of galvanized steel currently stands at 16% (ranking behind HSG and GDA). For 1H/2025, cumulative output reached 407 thousand tons (-13% YoY), declining despite the domestic market delivering strong growth of +95% YoY.
- Gross profit reached VND 270 billion (-47% YoY, +3% QoQ), corresponding to a gross profit margin of 7.1%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter (6.4%), despite little fluctuation in the selling price of corrugated iron and HRC. The improvement of gross profit margin without adjusting the inventory forecast is a positive signal, showing that the Company still has room to expand the gross margin in the last 2 quarters of the year, especially since the price of HRC in Vietnam has had upward adjustments in the period of August and early September.
U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework - A new transmission channel carrying the usd to the world
23-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Policy pivot: rather than hoarding gold like many central banks, the U.S. is building a digital USD “pipeline” via a triad of bills advanced during Crypto Week (July 14–18, 2025)
- Regulatory pillar: the GENIUS Act limits payment-stablecoin issuance to licensed institutions; after a transition of up to three years, U.S. platforms may support only compliant stablecoins
- USD demand via stablecoins: over 99% of stablecoins are USD-pegged; net outflows from North America were about USD 54bn in 2024, signaling offshore USD demand. Remittances via stablecoins are near-instant with lower fees versus the ~6.5% average in traditional cross-border rails
- Market sizing 2028–2030: (1) Base case: market cap USD 1.0–1.2tn by 2028, USD 1.6tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 600–800bn; (2) Bull case: USD 2.0tn by end-2028, USD 3.7tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 1.0–1.85tn; (3) Cautious case: USD 500–750bn in the next few years; UST holdings USD 250–350bn.
DGW – Accelerating growth in “nascent” segments – Office Equipment & Home Appliance – is essential
23-09-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: DGW
- DGW’s Q2-2025 results met our expectation with net revenue of VND 5,713 bn (+14.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 116 bn (+30.0% YoY), driven by the reversal of Q1 financial expenses and strong growth in Laptops & Tablets, particularly Office Equipment (+87.9% YoY) and Home Appliances (+108.4% YoY).
- For 2025, DGW trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x, above its 5-year average (12.8x) and industry average (11-12x). We believe expectations for 2025 revenue and net profit recovery are fully priced into the stock.
- In 2026-30, DGW must accelerate development of Office Equipment & Home Appliance while stemming the decline in Mobile Phone distribution market share to anchor stronger business performance, leading to higher valuation/profit opportunities.
Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN: Enhancing Risk Management and Stabilizing Vietnam’s Banking System in Alignment with Near BASEL III Standards
22-09-2025
: BID, CTG, VCB, MBB, ACB, TCB, VPB, HDB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: Bank's Regulations
- On June 30, 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN (Circular 14), which regulates capital adequacy ratios and takes effect from September 15, 2025, fully replacing Circular 41/2016/TT-NHNN as of January 1, 2030. This Circular aligns closely with Basel III standards, incorporating enhanced provisions on capital quality, risk management, and capital buffers to strengthen the resilience of Vietnam's banking system.
- Fundamentally, the differences between Circular 41 and Circular 14 involve transitioning from Basel II capital adequacy ratio regulations to those approximating Basel III standards, with improvements in capital quality, more flexible risk assessment methodologies, and supplementary capital buffers. Circular 14 not only bolsters banking system stability but also fosters more professional governance practices, aligning with Vietnam's deepening economic integration.
- Circular 14 compels banks currently exhibiting low capital adequacy ratios (CAR) within the system—those not yet meeting the minimum CAR under the four-year implementation roadmap outlined in Circular 14—to optimize their risk-weighted asset portfolios, bolster equity capital through share issuances or by augmenting retained earnings (via accelerated profit growth or reduced cash dividend payout ratios), and issue subordinated bonds to enhance Tier 2 capital, potentially igniting a "race" for capital augmentation and profitability among this cohort of institutions. Conversely, banks with current CAR exceeding the minimum threshold of 10.5% stand to benefit from expanded credit growth opportunities.
- Circular 14 raises capital requirements, enhances crisis resilience, and safeguards the stability and sustainability of the banking system, while paving the way for the SBV to reform the credit growth quota allocation mechanism by incorporating capital adequacy ratios alongside other prudential tools.
Update on retail electricity prices and its financial impact on EVN
22-09-2025
: POW, EVN, REE, GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is gradually shifting the method of determining electricity retail prices according to the trend of marketization and transparency, to reflect the reality of electricity generation costs and related costs in the electricity market.
- The MOIT has also allowed the Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) to increase electricity prices at a maximum of 5%, 3 times a year, without the approval of the MOIT. The adjustments have helped EVN improve its business performance and operate profitably again in 2024.
- Currently, EVN is proposing to readjust the retail price of electricity with 2 suggestion (1) reallocating the Group’s accumulated losses of VND 45 trillion in 2022 and 2023 into retail electricity prices and (2) applying a 2-component electricity price mechanism. These proposals will increase the cost of electricity use (especially for manufacturing industry customers) but will also create financial space for EVN to invest in developing new projects.
TNG – Market diversification and cost optimization drive profit growth
19-09-2025
: TNG
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: Textile & Garment TNG
- In Q2-FY25, TNG’s revenue and NPAT reached VND 2,528 billion (+67% YoY) and VND 120 billion (+39% YoY), respectively, in line with our forecasts (revenue and NPAT projections of VND 2,680 billion and VND 120 billion). Revenue growth mainly came from two major customers: Decathlon and Columbia.
- Optimizing SG&A expenses was a key driver for profit growth, recording VND 152 billion (+6% YoY). The SG&A/revenue ratio was 6% (-59 bps YoY), as the increasing proportion of orders from the U.S. helped reduce SG&A expenses. In addition, TNG’s hedging efficiency improved significantly, thereby contributing to stabilizing net profit (6M2024 FX loss of VND 32 billion vs. only VND 2 billion loss in 6M2025).
- We believe TNG’s current stock valuation still has room for growth, based on positive internal drivers. We set a target price of VND 23,700/share, equivalent to a projected 2025 P/E of 8.8x. Along with an expected cash dividend of VND 800/share over the next 12 months, we recommend ACCUMULATE, with an expected return of 18% compared to the closing price on September 18, 2025.
02-10-2025
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