02-10-2026VNINDEX1737.71-11.59-0.66% HNXIndex266.75-1.91-0.71% UPCOM125.93-0.59-0.47% VN301875.99-14.58-0.77% VN1001772.01-18.07-1.01% HNX30433.8-5.58-1.27% VNXALL2750.73-27.71-1.00% VNX503103.91-32.44-1.03% VNMID1809.51-29.28-1.59% VNSML1221.83-9.24-0.75% Vietnam Packaging Paper Industry: From capacity consolidation to a new investment cycle
28-08-2026
: DHC
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags:
- The capacity consolidation process has improved the packaging paper supply-demand balance over the 2025–2026 period. Approximately 2 million tons/year of paper production capacity in Bac Ninh was suspended in 2025, while packaging paper consumption grew by 13% YoY to 6.7 million tons, thereby supporting paper prices at an elevated level.
- A new investment cycle is gradually filling the supply gap and reshaping the industry structure. New capacity is concentrated in larger-scale plants; meanwhile, according to the Vietnam Pulp and Paper Association (VPPA), the designed capacity of packaging paper is projected to increase from 5.74 million tons in 2025 to 7.94 million tons in 2027, and approximately 9.38 million tons by 2030.
- Positive demand growth supports the absorption capacity for new supply, but competitive pressure may intensify starting in 2027. The VPPA expects consumption of packaging paper and tissue to grow at an average rate of 8–10% per annum during the 2026–2030 period. However, as new capacity comes onstream, the market's ability to absorb this supply will become a critical factor determining price dynamics and the degree of industry competition.
NT2– Q1/2026 business performance: The contract output rate decreased, pressed on gross margin
27-08-2026
: NT2
: Power
: VDSC
Tags:
- Q2/2026, Nhon Trach 2 (NT2:HSX) reported revenue of VND2,825bn (+36% YoY), net profit after tax – majority investor (NPAT-MI) of VND308bn (-6% YoY); completing 60%/113% of the Company's revenue plan and profit before tax plan. Electricity output (Qm) reached 1,196 million kWh, up 54% YoY.
- Gross profit margin decreased by 5 pps YoY, due to (1) Contractual output (Qc) increased by only 8% YoY, Qc/Qm ratio decreased by 42 pps YoY, resulting in the plant no longer receiving revenue from CfDs and putting pressure on non-Qc sales; (2) adjust the accounting of repair and maintenance costs under the guidance of the Ministry of Finance.
- For the full year of 2026, we forecast NT2's net revenue to reach VND9,573 billion (+23% YoY), with total power generation for the year reaching 4,073 million kWh (+31% YoY). Net profit is estimated at VND873bn (-17% YoY), NT2's gross margin may decrease to 10.5% (-3.5% YoY) when the company no longer records a Qc/Qm ratio > 100% as in 2025.
THG – 6M/2026 Results: Short-term pressure, profit recognition expected to shift to the second half of the year
26-08-2026
: THG
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags: Concrete
- 6M/2026 results below expectations, concrete profit margin is a bright spot: In the first 6 months of 2026, revenue reached $1,003 billion VND (-12% YoY) and net profit attributable to the parent company reached $59 billion VND (-15% YoY), completing 39% and 37% of the annual plan, respectively – lower than our expectations due to weak concrete performance in Q1 and weak residential real estate in Q2. Conversely, the gross margin for the concrete & construction materials segment reached 23.5% in Q2/2026 (+2.6 pps QoQ; +3 pps YoY) – a high level in the 2019-2026 period, reflecting the ability to increase selling prices and manage inventory well; the overall gross margin reached 21.2% while the net margin decreased to 5.0%.
- Valuation View: We expect business results in the second half of the year to improve thanks to the peak construction season, demand for precast concrete for infrastructure projects, and the recognition of revenue from the Gia Thuan 2 industrial cluster. After a discount of approximately 28% since June 2026, the stock is trading at trailing P/E and P/B of 7.5x and 1.3x – lower than the 5-year average, which may provide room for valuation improvement.
DRC – Global macro headwinds weigh heavily on 2026 business outlook
25-08-2026
: DRC
: Automobiles
: VDSC
Tags:
- DRC’s Q2-2026 results beat our expectation by 22%, with net revenue reaching VND1,176 bn (+1.8% QoQ, -14.6% YoY) and net profit after tax of VND32 bn (+95.5% QoQ, flat YoY), still benefiting from low-cost inventory carried over from Q1-2026. Input material costs continued to trend favorably YoY, including natural rubber (-3.3% YoY), synthetic rubber (+1.5% YoY), chemicals such as sulphur & silica (-0.7% YoY), carbon black (-14.1% YoY), and steel cord (-6.4% YoY). DRC’s three-month inventory policy allows raw material cost declines to flow through to gross margin relatively quickly (with a lag of approximately one quarter).
- DRC is trading at a reasonable valuation with a trailing PE of 13.0x and a 2026 forward PE of 15.5x, in line with the industry average of 13.0x. This is particularly notable given that the Company’s net profit after tax is expected to decline 22% in 2026 (in our view), as the key growth driver (domestic bias tires tracking industrial production) remains insufficient to offset pressure from elevated rubber/sulphur/steel prices and rising doubtful receivables in international markets, which have pushed net margin to a 15-year low. DRC has also released its Q3-2026 business plan, which aligns with our view above, targeting net revenue of VND1,132 bn (-3.7% QoQ, -8.3% YoY) and pretax profit of VND30 bn (-25.0% QoQ, -40.2% YoY).
Outright Purchase Without Recourse of Documents Under Letters of Credit Issued by the Bank Itself – A Trade Finance Channel Outside the Credit Quota and Loan Classification Framework
24-08-2026
: SHB, CTCB2201, MBB, VPB, HDB, VCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Since Q4 2024, a new line item has appeared simultaneously within Other Assets on the balance sheets of many Vietnamese commercial banks: receivables from the outright purchase without recourse of documents presented under letters of credit (L/Cs) issued by the bank itself. This is a self-funded variant of forfaiting, in which the bank both issues the L/C and commits its own capital to buy back the documents presented under that same L/C.
- Across the banks that disclose this item, the aggregate balance more than doubled over six quarters, rising from roughly VND 75,000 billion at end-2024 to nearly VND 158,000 billion as at Q2 2026 – equivalent to about 92% of the peak UPAS L/C balance recorded in 2022. SHB and TCB alone accounted for close to two-thirds of the group total as at the end of Q2 2026.
- This shift is tied to two circulars that took effect on the same date, 1 July 2024. Circular 21/2024/TT-NHNN on L/C operations tightened UPAS L/C (usance letters of credit payable at sight) by requiring the outstanding balance to be counted towards the customer's total credit exposure once the beneficiary has been paid under the L/C commitment — previously this activity was not treated as credit extension and was not recorded as a loan. Effective on the same date, Circular 31/2024/TT-NHNN on asset classification excluded the outright purchase without recourse of documents under L/Cs issued by the bank itself from the scope of loan classification and specific provisioning. The outcome is that UPAS L/C, one trade finance instrument, was tightened while its substitute remains outside the credit supervision framework.
- Our view: This is a legitimate activity conducted in accordance with SBV guidance. The underlying credit risk on the L/C applicant, however, does not disappear — it simply moves to a different position on the balance sheet. In its new location the item falls outside the credit growth quota, requires no loan classification, carries no provisioning, and is excluded from liquidity ratios. We believe that (i) credit growth, asset quality and liquidity metrics for banks with large exposures should be read on an adjusted basis, and (ii) the possibility that the SBV narrows the exemption under Circular 31 is a policy risk that should be priced into the investment case.
FRT – A new profit margin level for Long Chau following 2Q26 results
21-08-2026
: FRT
: Retailing
: VDSC
Tags: FRT
- FRT delivered impressive 2Q26 results, with net revenue reaching VND 15,626 billion (+37.2% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 341 billion (+187.8% YoY). Long Chau was the key contributor to earnings growth, with NPAT-MI of VND 340 billion (+133% YoY, equivalent to an NPAT-MI margin of 3.1% (+1.2 ppts YoY), marking a new record high for the chain. Meanwhile, FPT Shop was barely profitable, as earnings were largely eroded by a 99.3% YoY increase in interest expenses and the company’s limited ability to pass higher input costs through to retail prices.
- FRT is currently trading at a trailing P/E of 22.5x, above the retail sector average of 15.0-18.0x but below the Company's 5-year historical average of 30.3x. This suggests that the market has already priced in a substantial portion of Long Chau's growth expectations over the past three years, which explains the relatively subdued share price performance for much of the past year before the recent rally following 2Q26 results. Nevertheless, we remain constructive on FRT's long-term outlook, supported by Long Chau's expanding leadership in Vietnam's pharmacy retail market in terms of both network scale and profitability, FPT Shop's ongoing recovery and the improving profitability of the vaccination center chain. Given Long Chau's stronger-than-expected earnings contribution and profitability improvement in 2Q26, we see room to revise up our 2026 forecasts and will provide detailed updates in our upcoming reports.
OCB – Solid credit growth supports earnings, while rising group 2 loans weigh on NIM and asset quality
20-08-2026
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- OCB’s 2Q26 PBT reached over VND1.2tn, up strongly by 25% YoY. Accordingly, 1H26 PBT reached nearly VND2.5tn (+31% YoY), achieving only 38% of our full-year forecast. OCB’s 2Q26 results were notable for strong growth in total operating income (+18% QoQ, +21% YoY), mainly driven by (1) a sharp acceleration in credit growth, reaching 11% YTD in 2Q26 (1Q26: 2.6% YTD), and (2) a significant expansion in non-interest income (+100% QoQ, +47% YoY). However, OCB continues to face asset quality risks, as Stage 2 loans increased 32% QoQ, putting pressure on NIM and provision expenses.
- In 2H26, although the bank has fully utilized its credit growth quota allocated at the beginning of the year (~11%) and the likelihood of an additional quota being granted remains low, NIM could become the key driver of interest income growth. Specifically, liquidity indicators as of end-2Q26 still had room for improvement (LDR at 74% versus the regulatory cap of 85%, while SMLR was close to 30% versus the newly regulated cap of 40%), creating room for the bank to expand its medium- and long-term loan portfolio. In addition, the plan to recover more than VND1tn of NPLs, including on-balance-sheet bad debts, should also support NIM improvement.
- Our current 2026F forecast: PBT is expected to reach nearly VND6.5tn, equivalent to 29% YoY growth. In 1H26, total operating income, operating expenses, and provision expenses reached 43%, 43%, and 57%, respectively, of our full-year forecasts. OCB’s current share price stands at VND11,650/share, implying a 7% upside from the current market price. We will update our forecasts and valuation in subsequent reports.
GMD – Earnings breakthrough driven by dual momentum from core business growth and divestment
19-08-2026
: GMD
: Seaports
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, net revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 1,762 bn (+18% YoY) and VND 1,133 bn (+153% YoY), respectively. Container throughput at major port clusters, including Nam Dinh Vu, Binh Duong & Phuoc Long PIP, and Gemalink, reached 350 thousand TEUs (-10% YoY), 421 thousand TEUs (+5% YoY), and 577 thousand TEUs (+27% YoY), respectively.
- We have revised our 2026 forecasts upward, with net revenue and NPAT-MI expected to reach VND 6,694 bn (+12% YoY) and VND 2,620 bn (+49% YoY), respectively, 6%/17% higher than previous projections due to capital transfer transactions in Q2-FY26. We recommend ACCUMULATE with a target price of 92,600 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 2,200 VND/share, corresponding to an expected return of 19% based on the closing price on August 18, 2026.
ANV – Q2/2026 Business Results Impacted by Rising Input Costs Amid Declining Selling Prices
18-08-2026
: ANV
: Fishery
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q2/2026 reached VND 1,937 billion (+12% YoY), while net profit after tax attributable to the parent company (NPAT-MI) came in at VND 134.8 billion (-59% YoY). Revenue growth was mainly driven by pangasius sales volume of 17,812 tons (+21% YoY) and tilapia volume of 4,802 tons (+59% YoY), despite a 17% YoY decline in tilapia selling prices. The export market structure continued to shift notably, with pangasius increasingly directed toward Thailand (sale volume portion rising to 24% from 15%), while declining in Mexico and China. Meanwhile, Tilapia exports were concentrated in Brazil (64%) and the US (27%).
- Gross margin in Q2/2026 fell to 16% from 28% in the same period last year, primarily due to a 63% YoY surge in fishmeal costs and a 17% YoY drop in tilapia selling prices to USD 4.1/kg. Selling expenses reached VND 119.4 billion (+26% YoY), administrative expenses rose 20% YoY to VND 21 billion, and financial activities recorded a net loss of VND 13 billion.
- For Q3/2026, we project net revenue of VND 2,215 billion (+11% YoY, +14% QoQ), supported by pangasius volume of 22,194 tons (+10% YoY) at an average selling price of USD 2.2/kg (+12% YoY) and tilapia volume of 4,802 tons (+39% YoY), despite a 21% decline in tilapia prices to USD 4.0/kg. Gross profit is estimated at VND 332 billion (-32% YoY) with gross margin narrowing to 15% (-940 bps YoY), as cost of goods sold rose 10% YoY on the back of a 54% increase in fishmeal prices and a 10% rise in soybean meal prices. Selling expenses are also expected to increase 13% YoY due to higher freight rates. As a result, NPAT-MI is forecast at VND 147 billion (-48% YoY, +9% QoQ).
- For full-year 2026, we revise down our revenue forecast from VND 8,382 billion to VND 8,250 billion (+19% YoY) and NPAT-MI from VND 1,087 billion to VND 700 billion (-30% YoY). This implies EPS and BVPS of VND 2,626/share and VND 15,511/share, respectively. Our short-term target price for 2026, based on a target P/B of 1.57x (2021–2025 average), is VND 24,400/share. Combined with an expected cash dividend of VND 500/share over the next 12 months, the total expected return is 48% from the market price as of 18 August 2026, corresponding to a BUY recommendation. The long-term target price will be updated in the next report.
PHR – Compensation income at VSIP III and Bac Tan Uyen 1 was slower than expected
17-08-2026
: PHR
: Industrial Land RE, Chemicals
: VDSC
Tags: PHR
- In Q2/2026, PHR recorded net revenue of VND 406.3 billion (-13.4% QoQ, +10.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 364.1 billion (up 3 times YoY), thanks to the rubber segment benefiting from high selling prices and a sharp decline in management costs. However, the total net other incomes was lower than expected due to the progress of recording land compensation income from VSIP III and Bac Tan Uyen 1 projects was slower than expected.
- Accumulated in 6M2026, NPAT-MI reached VND 643.4 billion (+245% YoY). We continue to maintain our full-year 2026 NPAT-MI forecast of VND 2,067 billion (+303% YoY) thanks to the expectation that the remaining land compensation will be recorded in the following quarters, while maintaining our BUY recommendation with a target price of VND 76,000/share (upside 23.7%).
- In addition, we assess that PHR's lowering of the ceiling on foreign investor ownership to 0% from August 4th, 2026 is only a matter of legal procedures related to a limited number of industries. The company is also actively completing procedures to restore the foreign room, and we believe that this issue does not change the fundamental prospects of the business.
Draft Petroleum Law 2026: Expected to ease bottlenecks in upstream investment
14-08-2026
: PVS, PVD, PVT, GAS, BSR, PLX, OIL
: Oil & Gas
: VDSC
Tags:
- The Draft Petroleum Law (amended), released by the MOIT for public consultation in April 2026, aims to simplify procedures, increase decentralization, and improve the investment framework for oil and gas activities. We believe the proposed changes could shorten the process from discovery to field development, improve the economics of resources that are difficult to develop, and extend the life of existing fields. The Draft also expands the legal framework to cover carbon capture and storage (CCS), high-tech oil and gas services, and offshore energy, creating more opportunities for the industry's long-term growth.
- In 1H2026, upstream investment continued to accelerate, with PVEP's investment spending reaching USD 405.75mn (+26% YoY), equivalent to around 53% of its full-year plan. Therefore, we do not see the amended Law as the start of a new investment cycle. Instead, we believe it could speed up project execution and help turn CAPEX into actual workloads.
- Among listed companies, PVD and PVS are likely to benefit the most, while GAS could benefit indirectly over the medium to long term if new gas resources are brought into commercial production.
CTD - Positive FY2026 Business Results
13-08-2026
: CTD
: Construction
: VDSC
Tags:
- Strong revenue growth, new momentum from infrastructure: FY2026 net revenue reached $34,340 billion VND (+38% YoY), driven by high-rise projects (+99%) and infrastructure (+383%). The ending backlog exceeded $70,000 billion VND (+98% YoY), thanks to a surge in new infrastructure project signings as the Company participated in key projects (Can Gio Bridge, Gia Binh Airport, Long Thanh Airport, etc.).
- Improved profit margins: Gross profit margin FRreached 4.2% (+0.9 pps YoY), and the parent company's net profit margin reached 2.3% (+0.5 pps YoY), driven by four pillars: prioritizing high-margin clients/projects, centralized procurement, technology application (BIM, AI), and strict construction site cost management. Net financial income reached approximately $60 billion VND due to a large cash position (ending balance reached $7,800 billion VND, +82% YoY) despite high interest rates.
- Operating cash flow turned positive: Cash flow from operating activities reversed to positive, reaching $816 billion VND (compared to a negative $1,153 billion VND in the same period last year), supported mainly by a sharp increase in short-term advances from customers (ending balance reached $9,029 billion VND, an increase of $4,215 billion VND YoY), which helped reduce working capital pressure for ongoing projects.
28-08-2026
90 
