18-09-2026VNINDEX1815.66-7.11-0.39% HNXIndex275.291.390.51% UPCOM126.40.240.19% VN301964.17-10.84-0.55% VN1001860.89-5.70-0.31% HNX304511.320.29% VNXALL2880.24-7.00-0.24% VNX503247.96-12.03-0.37% VNMID1889.9714.820.79% VNSML1232.795.030.41% CTD - Positive FY2026 Business Results
13-08-2026
: CTD
: Construction
: VDSC
Tags:
- Strong revenue growth, new momentum from infrastructure: FY2026 net revenue reached $34,340 billion VND (+38% YoY), driven by high-rise projects (+99%) and infrastructure (+383%). The ending backlog exceeded $70,000 billion VND (+98% YoY), thanks to a surge in new infrastructure project signings as the Company participated in key projects (Can Gio Bridge, Gia Binh Airport, Long Thanh Airport, etc.).
- Improved profit margins: Gross profit margin FRreached 4.2% (+0.9 pps YoY), and the parent company's net profit margin reached 2.3% (+0.5 pps YoY), driven by four pillars: prioritizing high-margin clients/projects, centralized procurement, technology application (BIM, AI), and strict construction site cost management. Net financial income reached approximately $60 billion VND due to a large cash position (ending balance reached $7,800 billion VND, +82% YoY) despite high interest rates.
- Operating cash flow turned positive: Cash flow from operating activities reversed to positive, reaching $816 billion VND (compared to a negative $1,153 billion VND in the same period last year), supported mainly by a sharp increase in short-term advances from customers (ending balance reached $9,029 billion VND, an increase of $4,215 billion VND YoY), which helped reduce working capital pressure for ongoing projects.
The story of supporting the Yen and why interest rates cannot cool down yet
12-08-2026
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: VDSC
Tags:
- Japan's Ministry of Finance's foreign exchange intervention to support the yen failed to yield the expected results—as the currency remained weak, exerting upward pressure on US Treasury yields—forcing the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve to step in and support the yen using the FIMA Repo facility combined with FX swaps.
- US-Japan coordination to support the yen will continue, and further time is needed to assess its effectiveness. However, the consequences of this intervention—combined with the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) ongoing process of raising interest rates and shrinking its balance sheet—suggest international interest rates will remain high in the short term, while the US dollar weakens (depending on the frequency and scale of FIMA Repo usage).
- Domestic macroeconomic conditions for lowering interest rates have improved significantly compared to June and July, particularly regarding exchange rates and short-term liquidity. Nevertheless, interest rate levels have not yet cooled, indicating that the factors driving rates extend beyond short-term liquidity and may stem from structural issues within the banking system's balance sheets. Therefore, as we previously assessed, a cooling of interest rates requires time for the system to "self-adjust," and the State Bank of Vietnam's liquidity support (such as spot foreign currency purchases) remains crucial while macroeconomic conditions are relatively favorable.
POW – Business results Q2/2026: Retroactive revenue pushes profit margins up
11-08-2026
: POW
: Power
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2/2026, PV Power's revenue increased by 116% YoY and net profit after tax – minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 484% YoY. The main growth driver came from (1) the mobilization growth of thermal power plants due to the impact of the El Niño phase, and (2) POW recorded VND 2,475 billion in retroactive revenue from EVN.
- POW's Qm increased by 54% YoY, of which NT3&4 contributed 23% to the total output, reaching 1.7 billion kWh. NT2's Qm increased by 54% YoY, Ca Mau 1&2's output was flat (+1% YoY) due to fuel supply constraints. Contracted output (Qc) increased by 29% YoY with the company-wide average Qc/Qm ratio reaching 82% (-12% YoY), with NT3 &4 remaining high (98%) and traditional thermal power plants adhering to the minimum Qc/Qm ratio (81%).
- POW's Q1/2026 business results were more positive than analysts' expectations, completing 164%/293% of the revenue and profit forecasts. Therefore, we are considering adjusting the forecast of the company's 2026 business results and will update it in the latest report. Currently, we maintain a BUY recommendation on POW stock with a target price of 16,600 VND/share. Currently, POW's P/E and EV/EBITDA ratios are at 6.6x and 6.7x, which is lower than the 5-year average (19.5x and 8.5x). The low valuation of the market creates a good opportunity for the stock.
KBC – Strategic Focus on IP Land Handover in 2H2026
10-08-2026
: KBC
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags:
- During the first six months of 2026, KBC recorded net revenue and gross profit of VND 1.9 trillion (-48% YoY) and VND 849 billion (-53% YoY), respectively. Industrial park land and infrastructure leasing revenue reached VND 828 billion (-71% YoY), as the company recognized leased acreage of ~20 hectares (-76% YoY), primarily sourced from Nam Son Hap Linh IP and Que Vo 2 Extended IP (5 ha). With core IP leasing performance trailing expectations due to delayed revenue recognition from major tenant contracts, Net Profit After Tax for Shareholders of the Parent Company (NPAT-MI) dropped to VND 240 billion (-80% YoY), fulfilling only 8% of our full-year 2026 earnings forecast.
- On a cumulative basis through June 2026, KBC secured MOUs for approximately 170 hectares of IP land. Luxshare represents the largest client, accounting for 94 hectares in the Que Vo 2 Extended IP. Additionally, signed MOUs were secured for 25 hectares at Nam Son Hap Linh IP and 30 hectares at Trang Due 3 IP. These agreements establish a strong revenue pipeline anticipated for conversion and recognition in 2H2026, offsetting the revenue shortfall experienced during the first two quarters.
VHC – Maintaining gross profit growth in Q2/2026
07-08-2026
: VHC
: Fishery
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- In Q2/2026, net revenue reached VND 3,444 billion (+8% YoY), recording growth across most segments (by-products, value-added products, Sa Giang) and key markets (US, EU, China, and others), with the exception of the C&G segment (-26% YoY) and the domestic market (-1% YoY). The pangasius export segment maintained a stable scale as the average selling price increased 11% YoY, offsetting a 9% decline in volume. Thanks to higher export prices while input costs rose only modestly (aquafeed prices +6% YoY), the gross profit margin expanded to 21% (compared to 20% in the same period last year and 15% in the previous quarter).
- Despite the improved gross margin, NPAT-MI in Q2/2026 declined 8.9% YoY to VND 469 billion. The main reasons were a 54% drop in financial income (as the USD/VND exchange rate remained relatively stable in Q2/2026, reducing foreign exchange gains), combined with a sharp increase in financial expenses (+661% YoY, primarily due to a 108% rise in interest expenses) and a 16% increase in selling expenses. For the first six months of 2026, net revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 6,399 billion (+10% YoY) and VND 735 billion (+4% YoY), respectively.
- In the second half of 2026, we expect export volume to recover, supported by: (1) a decline in whitefish (cod) supply due to a 44% YoY reduction in fishing quotas in the North Atlantic; (2) the confirmation of Section 301 tariffs related to forced labor; and (3) limited pre-stocking effects in Q2/2026 and the main import season typically occurring in Q3. In addition, the NPAT-MI margin is expected to improve slightly compared to the first half of 2026 as input costs decline faster than selling prices, driven by the easing of Middle East tensions, which is expected to lower soybean meal prices and freight rates.
- We maintain our long-term BUY recommendation on VHC with a target price of VND 73,300 per share. Our full-year 2026 forecasts remain unchanged, with revenue and NPAT-MI projected at VND 12,507 billion (+4% YoY) and NPAT-MI at VND 1,526 billion (+8% YoY). The corresponding EPS is VND 6,800 per share.
KDH – Initial positive signals recorded in sales at the Gladia Heights project
06-08-2026
: KDH
: Real Estate
: VDSC
Tags: KDH
- On August 1, 2026, KDH and its joint venture with Keppel launched approximately 500 apartments at the Gladia Heights project, with over 90% of units receiving deposits during the event. This is a positive signal regarding demand and brand reputation; however, the number of official Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) should be monitored further.
- Q2/2026 NPAT-MI reached VND 749.8 billion (+166.4% QoQ, +277.4% YoY), exceeding analyst expectations, but almost the entire increase stemmed from a one-time accounting gain of VND 896.3 billion from the divestment of Binh Trung Moi.
- KDH's financial leverage continues to rise, with the debt-to-equity ratio increasing to 83.4% (from 48.0% at the end of 2025) and total debt reaching VND 16,659 billion (+64.1% year-to-date). This is a point that requires close monitoring alongside the actual handover pace and cost control capabilities in the coming quarters.
MSB – Credit growth accelerates significantly, but profit growth yet to be reflected YoY
05-08-2026
: MSB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- MSB's consolidated Q2/2026 profit before tax (PBT) reached over VND1.5 trillion (-19% QoQ, -1% YoY). Consequently, 1H2026 PBT grew by only 8% YoY, and the ROAE ratio declined to 13.9% (-40 bps QoQ, 0 bps YoY). Nevertheless, the bank's Q2/2026 business results showed bright spots: (1) Consolidated credit growth of 11.4% YTD, with the parent bank growing 10.4% YTD, higher than the industry average (8.2%); (2) Stable asset quality, with consolidated net NPL formation remaining flat compared to the previous quarter, bringing the consolidated NPL ratio down by 13 bps QoQ to 2.5%.
- Regarding the 2H2026 business plan, MSB expects additional room for credit growth and aims for a 15% target through: (1) expectations that the SBV will loosen credit quotas and (2) MSB considering lending to key national infrastructure projects that are exempt from credit growth quotas. Additionally, the plan to record income from debt sale agreement (~VND1 to VND2 trillion) in 2H2026 is expected to help the bank's full-year PBT exceed its target.
PNJ – 2Q26 Earnings: Excluding the prudential repurchase provision, core earnings remained on a growth trajectory
04-08-2026
: PNJ
: Retailing
: VDSC
Tags: PNJ
- Despite solid 2Q26 revenue growth, PNJ reported a net loss after recognizing more than VND 360bn of inventory provisions (for Q2) and VND 865bn of provisions for customer repurchase obligations (for Jul 2026) under a prudent accounting approach. Excluding the repurchase-related provision, core operating earnings would have remained on a positive YoY growth.
- Following the P-Lab incident, customer requests to resell products to PNJ increased sharply from 2 July 2026, creating short-term liquidity pressure within 03 weeks. In response, the company introduced a new settlement policy effective 21 July, under which repurchase payments are made in 05 installments over 120 days across all product categories. Based on management's disclosure, the policy has started to alleviate liquidity pressure, with daily cash outflows for repurchases declining by ~56% compared with the period prior to implementation, while 95% of customers have agreed to convert to other product catagories, instead of reselling.
- In our view, PNJ's earnings performance and cash flow in the near term are being affected not only by the recent company-specific problems but also by more cautious consumer sentiment across the gold, diamond, and jewelry markets. Against this backdrop, the company’s priorities are to preserve liquidity, optimize its cost structure, and accelerate inventory turnover (particularly for repurchased diamond jewelry, which currently represents a meaningful portion of inventories – approximately 30% of the total repurchase value). Given the elevated uncertainty, we downgrade our recommendation to Observe while awaiting additional information to reassess PNJ's earnings outlook and will provide further updates to our subsequent reports.
Banking Sector 2Q26 Results Update: Profit Accelerates on Continued Credit and Fee Income Expansion; Deposit Mobilization and Group 2 Loans Remain the Two Key Bottlenecks
03-08-2026
: VCB, CTG, BID, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, HDB, MSB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Total operating income (TOI) of listed banks reached over VND 217 trillion in 2Q26 (+14% QoQ) and PBT reached nearly VND 111 trillion (+25% YoY, +18% QoQ). For 1H26, TOI amounted to more than VND 407 trillion and PBT to more than VND 205 trillion (+20% YoY). Listed banks have completed approximately 47% of their full-year 2026 PBT plans.
- The growth drivers of sector-wide revenue and profit include: (1) System-wide credit grew 8.3% YTD (or 17.4% YoY) as of end-2Q26 – with listed banks up 9.1% YTD – supporting 1H26 net interest income growth of approximately 17% YoY; (2) Net fee and service income in 1H26 reached over VND 49 trillion, up 58% YoY; (3) Other income in 1H26 reached over VND 28 trillion, up 31% YoY, notably driven by one-off gains at VCB and HDB; (4) The cost-to-income ratio (CIR) in 1H26 declined to 31.1%, from 32.1% for the full year 2025.
- Profit growth continues to diverge sharply and remains concentrated among large-scale banks: 1H26 PBT of state-owned commercial banks (SoBs) rose 30% YoY and that of large joint-stock banks rose 14% YoY, while the medium-sized group declined 7% YoY. At the individual bank level, the strongest growth came from VPB (+68% YoY), CTG (+37%), VCB (+33% YoY), HDB (+31%), MBB (+27%) and TCB (+22%); on the other side, SSB (-55%), EIB (-54%) and STB (-44%) were the main drags on overall growth.
- Issues to watch: (1) Deposit mobilization remains a bottleneck, with deposit growth at listed banks reaching only 5.0% YTD, 3.3 ppts below credit growth, and total mobilization standing roughly VND 2.8 quadrillion below outstanding credit; LDR ratios at most banks remain close to the 85% ceiling and sector-wide CASA is flat at a low 20.9% amid the continued rise in deposit rates during 2Q26; (2) Net Group 2 loan formation increased to nearly VND 81 trillion – the highest level since 1Q23 – lifting the Group 2 loan ratio to 1.37% (1Q26: 1.23%), while the NPL ratio was flat at 2.01% thanks to the dilution effect of high credit growth; (3) Off-balance-sheet bad debt recoveries in 2Q26 edged down 1% YoY – the first quarter of negative growth after many quarters – implying that liquidity in the real estate market is cooling.
- Looking into 2H26, we expect the following signals to help ease liquidity pressure: (1) Public investment disbursement accelerating towards year-end; (2) The SBV has issued Decision No. 1743 raising the proportion of term State Treasury deposits counted in the LDR calculation to 50% from 20% (equivalent to more than VND 165 trillion added to the deposit component of the LDR ratio), easing compliance pressure for SoBs and in turn generating more abundant supply in the interbank market; and (3) The ratio of cash in circulation outside the banking system has trended down from February 2026 (12.1%) to end-May 2026 (10.5%), while cash flows from households' gold sales in July 2026 may help deposits return to the system. A shift of the state budget into deficit remains the single most important signal to monitor in assessing when funding costs will peak. In parallel, the rising trend in Group 2 loans, in a context where provisioning buffers have not been strengthened commensurately, is the key risk to sector profit growth in the second half of the year.
SCS – Profit remains flat due to direct impact from the conflict in the Middle East
31-07-2026
: SCS
: Aviation
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 279 billion (-4% YoY) and VND 187 billion (-1% YoY), respectively, in line with our projections (net revenue and NPAT of VND 282 billion and VND 184 billion, respectively). International/domestic cargo volume reached 50 thousand tons (-8% YoY)/12 thousand tons (-8% YoY).
- Accumulated in 2Q2026, SCS's revenue and NPAT reached VND 551 billion (-1% YoY) and VND 361 billion (+1% YoY), respectively, completing 42%/47% of the annual plan and 42%/44% of our forecast. For 2026, revenue and NPAT are expected to reach VND 1,316 billion (+10% YoY) and VND 811 billion (+8% YoY).
The picture of Vietnam's water supply and clean water treatment industry
30-07-2026
: BWE, REE
: Utilities
: VDSC
Tags: REE BWE
- We expect clean water consumption to continue to maintain sustainable growth momentum in the long term, thanks to (1) growth in industrial production demand, (2) the trend of population urbanization, and (3) the trend of universalization of the use of clean and treated water in rural areas.
- The State has issued a water selling price mechanism, creating a basis for local governments and water supply companies to adjust selling prices based on production costs, normative profit levels, and customer structure.
- The outlook for the water sector in Vietnam is supported by stable demand, declining water loss rates, and strategic differentiation among business groups. In particular, multi-local water supply companies such as BWE and REE focus on expansion through M&A, while urban water supply companies such as Sawaco prioritize modernizing water supply systems.
Plastics Industry 1H2026: Key Players Thrive Despite Falling Demand
29-07-2026
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags:
- Declining Output, Market Concentration: Total Q2/2026 consumption dropped to 77,000 tonnes (-24% YoY), bringing 6M2026 volume to 170,000 tonnes (-8% YoY). Industry leaders continued to gain market share (NTP +3 pps, BMP +1 pps).
- Narrowing Profit Margins: High 6M2026 margins—driven by low-cost inventory—are expected to shrink in 2H2026. PVC resin prices are projected to trade in a tight range of 750–800 USD/ton.
- 2H2026 Demand Outlook: Consumption is forecasted to remain flat or improve slightly, buoyed by (1) recovering civil construction (notably in the South) and (2) product expansion into infrastructure projects.
13-08-2026
70 
