30-10-2026VNINDEX1741.62-13.99-0.80% HNXIndex252.74-3.87-1.51% UPCOM123.73-0.37-0.30% VN301855.04-22.14-1.18% VN1001761.77-20.97-1.18% HNX30428.71-6.41-1.47% VNXALL2735.79-32.50-1.17% VNX503081.4-37.40-1.20% VNMID1813.09-25.46-1.38% VNSML1220.78-12.39-1.00% PVD - A temporary pause, with growth still ahead
25-09-2026
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: VDSC
Tags: PVD
- First-half 2026 results show continued growth in core operations, although one-off costs weighed on near-term profit. Revenue reached VND 6,429 billion (+63% YoY), while net profit attributable to parent-company shareholders reached VND 469 billion (+19% YoY), fulfilling 57% and 59% of the full-year targets, respectively. In Q2, revenue rose 25% YoY, but attributable net profit fell 32% YoY due to upgrade costs for PVD VIII and PVD IX and additional costs at the Song Doc project.
- Profit may remain under pressure in Q3/2026 before improving from Q4. Remaining costs for the PVD VIII and PVD IX upgrades and the Song Doc project are expected to affect margins in Q3; However, we expect these costs to have a much smaller impact from Q4, allowing earnings to better reflect the strength of core operations.
- Capacity expansion, rather than higher rig day rates, is expected to drive growth in 2026–2027. Drilling demand in Vietnam and Southeast Asia remains healthy, and most of PVD’s owned rigs have secured work. PVD IX should contribute for a full year from 2027, while PVD X is expected to begin drilling in Q2/2027. This will increase operating days and support growth in drilling and well technical services.
DCM – Q2/2026 Earnings Update and New Gas Pricing Mechanism
24-09-2026
: DCM
: Fertilizer
: VDSC Research
Tags:
- Consolidated revenue in Q2/2026 reached VND 6,881 billion (+10.1% YoY), mainly driven by 60% growth in the Urea segment as both sales volume and selling prices improved (export volume surged 130%, offsetting the decline in domestic volume). Meanwhile, the trading segment rose slightly by 6%, while the NPK segment fell 35% due to a sharp decline in sales volume. The blended gross margin expanded to 30% (from 20% in the same period last year), driven by an increase in the Urea margin to 44% as selling prices rose faster than input gas costs. The NPK margin, however, edged down as DAP and potash feedstock prices increased faster than selling prices.
- Selling and administrative expenses in Q2/2026 nearly doubled, driven by higher export volumes, increased advertising spending, and larger contributions to the science and technology development fund. Financial income declined due to lower foreign-exchange gains. Nevertheless, the significant improvement in gross margin lifted NPAT-MI by 35.5% to VND 1,067 billion. For the first six months of 2026, revenue reached VND 11,998 billion (+27% YoY), while NPAT-MI reached VND 1,856 billion (+55% YoY), equivalent to 54% and 67% of our full-year forecasts, respectively.
- In the second half of 2026, revenue is expected to grow by 20% YoY, supported by higher domestic sales volume as selling prices decline sharply to an average of VND 13,100/kg from a peak of VND 17,000/kg. However, the gross margin in H2 2026 is projected to narrow from H1 2026 as selling prices gradually decline while input gas costs remain elevated amid persistently high Brent oil prices.
- On 23 September 2026, the Company approved a new gas-pricing mechanism that incorporates supply from the Nam Du – U Minh field, gradually replacing supplementary gas purchased from Petronas from 2028 onward. The specific gas-supply portion from 2028 has not yet been finalized and will depend on the timing of gas availability, the outcome of negotiations with Petronas, and movements in Brent oil prices.
- The new pricing formula will help reduce the Company’s exposure to Brent oil price volatility. In addition, the mechanism is expected to benefit the Company if Brent prices in 2028 exceed the USD 75.8/barrel threshold, compared with Petronas gas priced at 13.7% of Brent, assuming that Nam Du – U Minh gas represents the same share of the gas mix as gas currently purchased from Petronas.
HSG - Traditional segment expected to recover, with additional contributions from Hoa Sen Home
23-09-2026
: HSG
: Materials
: VDSC
Tags: Steel
- In Q3 of the 2026 fiscal year (FY), HSG recorded net revenue and profit after tax (PAT) of the parent company of 9.993 trillion VND (+5% YoY) and 382 billion VND (+39% YoY), respectively. Business performance recovered positively with the gross margin expanding significantly to 15.3%, as the average export price improved due to an increased proportion of sales to the South American market and the company's effective utilization of low-cost inventory (despite continuing to set aside an additional 17.7 billion VND in provisions for inventory devaluation).
- Business operations are expected to recover more clearly in FY 2026-28, thanks to the traditional steel segment benefiting from domestic construction demand and the strategy of expanding into new export markets (India, Middle East, etc.). Regarding long-term drivers, the Hoa Sen Home retail model is expected to break through due to the potential for construction material consumption and the ability to expand into rural areas, maintaining a revenue and operating profit growth rate of 50-60%/year, thereby increasing their respective contribution ratios to 10% and 20% of the Company's overall business results.
HAX – Intensifying industry competition eroding profit margin
22-09-2026
: HAX
: Automobiles
: VDSC
Tags: HAX
- In H1-2026, HAX recorded NPAT-MI of VND19 bn (vs only VND 1 bn in the same period last year), exceeding our expectation of VND 13 bn, corresponding to a slight improvement in net margin to 1.4%. The results reflected the recovery in EBIT margin of the MBZ segment to 1.1% (+188bps YoY) thanks to reduced pressure from hard-to-sell inventory and more positive consumer sentiment following the brand’s restructuring initiatives, combined with large incentive/support payments from manufacturers (MBZ VND 14 bn, MG VND 21 bn, Vinfast & others VND 87 bn). However, EBIT margins of MG and Vinfast remained significantly negative due to deep discounting policies and the high cost structure of VinFast electric vehicles, while interest expenses surged 95.7% YoY to VND 34 bn under the impact of higher average interest rates and expanded debt scale following the VFG acquisition. On a positive note, the minority interest ratio declined markedly thanks to the recovery of the fully-owned MBZ segment, improving the quality of earnings attributable to parent company shareholders.
- Following Q2-2026 results and a 14% price decline over the past three months (broadly in line with global peers), HAX is currently trading at a trailing P/B of 0.8x (half of the book value comes from the Vo Van Kiet land plot with historical cost of VND90-100mn/m²). Overall, the stock appears inexpensive relative to the company’s business outlook in H2-2026 – a period of accelerated new model launches across MBZ, MG and VinFast, accompanied by continued high manufacturer incentives. The completion of the purchase of ~1 million HAX shares by Mr. Do Tien Dung, Chairman of Haxaco, during 5 Aug – 3 Sep 2026, as well as the Board’s proposal to the AGM for a 5-million-share buyback, serve as additional catalysts that could help stem the stock’s downward momentum in the near term.
HDG – Hydrology conditions to weigh on 3Q earnings
21-09-2026
: HDG
: Real Estate, Power
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: RE
- In 1H2026, Ha Do Group JSC posted a recovery that nonetheless fell short of our expectations, with net revenue and NPAT-MI of VND1,175bn (flat YoY) and VND301bn (+132% YoY; the reviewed figure is 86% above the company's self-prepared report). Hydropower output fell 24% YoY on the negative impact of the El Nino phase, alongside one-off provisioning charges for the renewables projects (Hong Phong 4 and Infra 01).
- With sales at Charm Villa phase 3 yet to be pushed, 3Q earnings will again be driven mainly by the energy segment and will remain exposed to weather, with the El Nino phase now at its strongest (drier conditions and a negative read-through to hydropower output). We therefore estimate 3Q revenue and NPAT-MI of VND640bn (-10% YoY) and VND210bn (-26% YoY) respectively.
VSC – Strong growth driven by associates and reversal of securities investment provisions
18-09-2026
: VSC
: Seaports
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2-FY26, VSC's revenue and NPAT-MI reached VND 861 bn (+7% YoY) and VND 186 bn (+60% YoY), respectively. The results were more positive than our expectations due to profit contributions from JVs, namely Hai An Transport and Stevedoring JSC (HSX: HAH) and Vinaship JSC (Upcom: VNA), as well as the reversal of provisions for impairment of trading securities.
- We have revised up our 2026 NPAT-MI forecast to VND 383 bn (+12% YoY), 46% higher than our previous projection. Key changes include: (1) increased contribution from joint ventures and associates from VND 117 bn to VND 365 bn, with HAH contributing VND 301 bn and VNA VND 61 bn, (2) a 46% increase in interest expenses as VSC invested in two vessels, Green Park and Green Time, with a loan of VND 710 bn and (3) a 22% increase in minority interest as VGR has not yet invested in the VND 615 bn RTG crane system, which helped reduce depreciation expenses.
- We recommend BUY with a target price of 22,600 VND/share along with a cash dividend of 500 VND/share, corresponding to an expected return of 75% based on the closing price on September 17, 2026.
DPR – High rubber selling prices support Q3 earnings
18-09-2026
: DPR
: Chemicals
: VDSC
Tags: DPR
- Q3/2026 is expected to recover strongly compared to the previous quarter as the peak rubber harvesting season begins. We project net revenue to reach VND 507 billion (+81% QoQ, +5% YoY) and NPAT-MI to reach VND 135 billion (+64% QoQ, -2% YoY).
- Regarding the rubber segment, revenue is estimated to increase 12% YoY due to an average selling price estimated at VND 64 million/ton (+31.7% YoY). Revenue from tree liquidation is expected to decrease sharply by 38% YoY (approximately 130 ha), while other segments (IP, rubber products) are expected to increase by +20% YoY.
- Revenue increases slightly by 5% YoY, but the structure shifts as the proportion of the rubber segment (lower margin) increases, while tree liquidation (higher margin) decreases, pulling the gross margin to approximately 37% (from 40.4% in Q2/2026). Absolute profit still grows well compared to Q2 due to the estimated sharp increase in rubber selling prices.
The repricing tailwind for NIM in the short-term
16-09-2026
: ACB, SHB, SSB, STB, VPB, TCB, TPB, EIB, HDB, MSB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- The sector's net repricing gap within 12 months turned positive in Q3-2025 and reached +1.1% of total assets in Q2-2026 — the highest since 2020. A balance sheet in this position means a rise in interest rates becomes a tailwind for NIM expansion.
- At shorter horizons the gap is far larger: positive VND 1,200–1,300 trillion over the three-to-six-month window, against just under VND 240 trillion over the full twelve months. The NIM expansion effect will therefore be concentrated in the next one to two quarters.
- The repricing effect on profitability differs sharply across banks. Based on interest-rate risk disclosures as at 30 June 2026, ACB, SHB, SSB, STB and VPB stand to benefit most over the next one to two quarters; TCB, TPB, EIB, HDB and MSB sit on the opposite side.
VIB – Asset quality risks remain, increasing pressure on credit costs
15-09-2026
: VIB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags:
- Q3/26F PBT is estimated at VND2.5tn (+6% QoQ, +25% YoY), bringing 9M26 PBT growth to 9% YoY and achieving 73% of our full-year forecast. Credit growth accelerated to 8% YTD, while NIM improved to 3.15%, supporting a 2% QoQ and 9% YoY increase in total operating income. However, net NPL formation is expected to remain elevated at VND1.5tn, keeping provision expenses flat QoQ and up 8% YoY.
- We forecast 2026F PBT at VND10.6tn (+16% YoY), 5% below our previous forecast, mainly due to a 17% downward revision to non-interest income and a 16% increase in provision expenses. In contrast, operating expenses are expected to decline 14% following workforce optimization.
- VIB is currently trading at 1.0x P/B, below its 1-year average of 1.3x. We believe persistent asset quality pressures and elevated provision expenses will continue into 2H26, limiting room for re-rating. Our current target price is VND16,250/share, implying 2026-27F P/B multiples of 1.16x/1.03x, respectively, and 20% upside from the Sep 15, 2026 closing price.
GEG – Business results Q2/2026: Solar power segment is a bright spot in the low quarter
14-09-2026
: GEG
: Power
: VDSC
Tags:
- In Q2/2026, GEG recorded revenue of VND 580 billion (-7% yoy, -24% yoy), profit after tax – majority investor (NPAT-MI) decreased by 83% yoy (86% yoy). Net profit declined when the Company no longer recorded financial revenue from capital transfer as in Q2/2025.
- Total power generation decreased by 8% yoy (30% yoy) when (1) hydropower production decreased by 41% yoy, due to the influence of the El Niño phase; (2) wind power production decreased by 11% yoy. However, solar power generation improved by 8% yoy after the Duc Hue 2 plant went into commercial operation. For Q3 2026, we estimate that GEG's power generation may decrease by 5%, as hydropower production is estimated to decline by 25% yoy due to the influence of the El Niño phase.
- In 2026, we forecast GEG's revenue and NPAT-MI to reach VND2,851 billion (-5% yoy) and VND391 billion (-44% yoy). Currently, GEG stock is trading at a P/E of 11x and an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x, lower than the 5-year average (18.4x and 9.3x). We maintain a BUY recommendation with a target price of VND20,400/share.
VGI – A bigger ship sailing through bigger “waves”
11-09-2026
: VGI
: Telecommunication Services
: VDSC
Tags: VGI
- Net revenue in 2Q26 reached VND 13,610 billion (+29% YoY), in line with our expectations. Contributions from Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia (SEA) accounted for 51%/13%/39%, respectively, with growth rates of 29%/28%/18% YoY. Africa and Latin America continued to deliver strong growth, supported by the expansion of telecom network coverage (increasing subscriber numbers) and relatively high average revenue per user (ARPU) compared with developed markets, alongside digital services that are driving a new wave of changes in payment habits. Meanwhile, we believe that the SEA markets have entered a mature stage in telecom services, with double-digit growth being driven mainly by a higher contribution from digital services.
- NPAT-MI in 2Q26 reached VND 3,552 billion (+50% YoY), exceeding our expectations by 34%, with NPAT-MI margin reaching 26% (+4 ppts YoY). This result was mainly driven by: (1) gross margin remaining high at 51%, despite the impact of higher input costs for IT and telecom equipment and memory, as rapid revenue growth and significant economies of scale enabled VGI to better control its margins; (2) a significant reduction in provisions for operating receivables (-136% YoY); and (3) improved performance from financial investments and stable exchange rates.
- We maintain our positive view and remain positive on VGI’s growth quality, underpinned by its long-term investment strategy in infrastructure, technology, and human resources across its local markets. This model is helping the company improve its financial health, generate stable cash flows to the parent company, and build a foundation for expansion into new markets. Given the above-expectation results in 1H26, we see room to slightly raise our 2026–2027 forecasts and will provide further details in subsequent reports. Our latest target price is VND 99,300/share, implying an ACCUMULATE recommendation with an expected return of 18% based on the closing price as of September 11, 2026. The company is expected to pay a cash dividend of VND 3,300/share for FY2025 on October 15, 2026 (ex-dividend date: September 18, 2026), implying a dividend yield of ~4%.
VNM – Heading toward a new profit milestone
09-09-2026
: VNM
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: VDSC
Tags: VNM
- VNM’s Q2-2026 results exceeded our expectation by 16%, with net revenue reaching VND 18,847 bn (+12.5% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 3,167 bn (+28.0% YoY). The outperformance was driven by solid revenue growth across all segments, favorable input costs, and improved effectiveness of sales support campaigns.
- Specifically, gross margin reached 43.5% (+83bps QoQ, +170bps YoY), higher than our 42.9% forecast, thanks to milk powder prices declining approximately 20.8% YoY, lower unit production costs amid stronger-than-expected sales volume, and a clearer pass-through of selling price increases. Meanwhile, SG&A exp /Net revenue stood at 24.5% (-138bps QoQ, -42bps YoY), below our 25.3% forecast. Although advertising, promotion and display expenses hit a quarterly record of VND 3,131 bn (16.6% of net revenue), ROI remained solid, helping contain costs in a still-sluggish dairy market.
- After Q2-2026 results, VNM is currently trading at a trailing PE of 11.6x and a 2026 forward PE of 11-12x, significantly lower than the 16.0x average during 2021-25 when VNM entered a slowdown phase with revenue CAGR of only 1.1%/year versus 7.2%/year in 2016-20. With growth recovering to double digits this year and remaining a large-cap stock with substantial foreign room, VNM is well-suited for a dividend investment strategy (dividend yield of 7.4%/year) or for catching the market upgrade wave when the company’s PE is re-rated in line with the VNIndex (VNM could see increased weighting by foreign funds thanks to its position as a leading large-cap consumer staple company with high liquidity).
25-09-2026
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