Q1/2025 business results of the fertilizer industry and perspective on short-term fertilizer prices
21-05-2025
: DCM, DPM, DDV, BFC, LAS
: Fertilizer
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue in Q1/2025 of the fertilizer industry recorded strong growth with most types of fertilizers. However, the growth was mainly from NPK, DAP and Phosphorus fertilizers while Urea fertilizers were stable. Notably, the DAP fertilizer industry recorded a breakthrough thanks to high growth in output and selling prices thanks to China's export restrictions since December 2024.
- Urea prices have also risen sharply recently as U.S. tariffs indirectly affect urea prices in other regions. However, the selling price of urea is hard to increase in the coming period when China is expected to export again. In addition, the price of Phosphate-based fertilizer is expected to be difficult to fall as China restricts exports of apatite ore products.
- The fertilizer industry in Q2-2025 is expected to grow strongly thanks to improved gross margins as selling prices grow. In addition, the urea fertilizer industry benefited from a sharp decline in input gas prices YoY in line with Brent oil prices when Brent oil prices had a high base last year.
Southeast Asia's Jack-Up rig market outlook: Remains positive for 2025 - 2026
20-05-2025
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: Drilling rig
- In 2024, the utilization rate of jack-up rig in Southeast Asia remained high at around 90%, indicating market stability despite short-term fluctuations.
- We expect drilling demand to remain strong during 2025–2026, with utilization rates ranging between 80% and 90%. Vietnam is expected to lead the region in the coming period, driven by the implementation of several key oil and gas projects such as Block B, Su Tu Trang, Dai Hung, Lac Da Vang, and Hai Su Vang.
TRADE UPDATE APRIL 2025: TRADE TENSIONS EASE AND IMPLICATIONS FOR VIETNAM
19-05-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Trade activity in April 2025 accelerated significantly, as export orders were boosted by the 90-day tariff suspension period.
- By industry, electronics and machinery recorded the highest growth in both exports and imports.
- Facing tariff pressures, exports to the US continued to post strong growth (+34.2% YoY in April 2025), nearly twice the rate of export growth to non-US markets.
- The de-escalation of the trade war, marked by the first agreement between the US and the UK and easing tensions between the US and China, brings several implications for Vietnam’s trade outlook:
- In the short term, Vietnamese exporters are likely to ramp up production as risks remain tilted towards the imposition of tariffs above 10% after the 90-day grace period expires. For Vietnam, this 90-day window ends on July 8, 2025, while for China, the deadline is August 12, 2025.
- The 10% tariff rate on UK imports after recent negotiations signals that this may also serve as the baseline rate that the US will maintain for other trading partners. Currently, the average import tariff in the US stands at 13.1%, down from 22.8% prior to the US–China agreement, but still significantly higher than the end-2024 level of 2.3%.
- The US–UK trade agreement suggests that reciprocal tariffs may be less significant than the details of concessions each side is willing to make in strategic sectors, and the extent to which non-tariff barriers are relaxed for US exporters.
- The China plus one strategy may or may not regain momentum for Vietnam. The outcome of US–China negotiations could open up opportunities for Vietnam to secure a 10% base tariff following bilateral talks. However, the risk of Vietnam facing higher reciprocal tariffs "relative to other countries" remains a key downside, especially given the complex nature of ongoing negotiations.
Q1 2025 Banking Sector Update: Strong Profit Growth Amid Divergent Credit Dynamics
16-05-2025
: BID, CTG, MBB, TCB, VPB, ACB, VIB, LPB, MSB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- In 1Q25, 27 listed Vietnamese banks reported a consolidated PBT of nearly VND 83 trillion (approximately USD3.3 billion), marking a 14% YoY increase. The growth was driven by a 7% YoY rise in net interest income and a striking 151% YoY surge in income from other activities, while provisions for credit risks remained flat compared to the same period last year.
- Credit growth among listed banks reached 3.76% year-to-date through Q1 2025, slightly trailing the broader banking system’s 3.93%. This reflects a positive recovery in capital demand compared to the 1.42% growth recorded in Q1 2024, achieving roughly 25% of the State Bank of Vietnam’s (SBV) 16% credit growth target for the year. The structure of credit growth showed no significant shifts, with corporate lending and short-term loans continuing to drive system-wide expansion.
- Deposit mobilization by listed banks grew by 3.3% in Q1 2025, with customer deposits rising 2.4% and issuances of valuable papers surging 11.0%. However, deposit growth lagged behind credit growth by 0.4 percentage points, though the gap narrowed compared to 2024. The average tenor of mobilized capital is trending longer, fueled by banks issuing bonds to bolster Tier 2 capital and certificates of deposit to enhance competitiveness in attracting low-cost CASA deposits via hybrid earning account. With credit growth expected to accelerate later in 2025, pressure on deposit interest rates and funding costs is likely to intensify for banks in the remainder of the year.
- The industry’s NIM contracted by 30 basis points QoQ to 3.05%, driven by a 25 bps QoQ decline in asset yields and a 5 bps QoQ increase in funding costs. This reflects intensifying competition in lending rates, spurred by government-directed preferential credit packages aimed at lowering borrowing costs. Additional pressures include the structure of new loan tenors, rising non-performing loans, and the reversal of accrued interest, compounded by competitive dynamics in deposit mobilization.
DPR – Rubber segment leads business results in the first quarter of 2025
15-05-2025
: DPR
: Industrial Land RE
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: DPR Rubber
- In the first quarter of 2025, DPR recorded revenue of VND 203 billion (-56%QoQ, +9%YoY), profit after tax - parent shareholders (NPAT-MI) recorded VND 65 billion (-41%QoQ, +25%YoY). Gross margin reached 47%.
- Revenue from the rubber segment increased by 13% over the same period, mainly because the price of DPR rubber sold in the first quarter of 2025 continued to increase and remained at a high level, reaching 57.8 million VND/ton (+41%YoY) while production remained unchanged, reaching 1,348 tons (+0.89%YoY).
- World rubber prices fell in the first months of the second quarter of 2025 due to US-China trade tensions, which will put short-term psychological pressure on DPR revenue; However, thanks to seasonal factors and the trend of price recovery, the impact is considered temporary and not too strong on the average rubber price for the whole year.
Comparison of domestic natural gas and LNG fuel sources
14-05-2025
: POW, NT2, GAS
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- According to the revised Power Plan VIII, the electricity demand of the whole system is expected to reach 500 billion kWh by 2030 (+7%/year), requiring an increase in installed capacity of 12%/year. Gas power increased the most (+21%/year), mainly thanks to projects using LNG instead of domestic gas.
- Domestic gas production is declining due to old wells, causing the supply to be limited in the short term. In contrast, imported LNG is highly flexible, helping to diversify the supply. However, the cost is higher due to liquefaction, transportation, and regasification. Vietnam is investing heavily in LNG ports and reprocessing stations to be able to provide enough fuel for both power generation and industrial production
- Domestic gas prices gradually increase at 2-4%/year, to 9.5 USD/million BTU (Q1/2025). This is due to the gradual depletion of supply and the steady increase in transportation costs
- LNG prices fluctuated sharply in 2020–2022, rising to $34/million BTU due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis, then falling rapidly to $11.9 in 2024. In 2025, LNG prices may recover slightly to ~$14 but will fall to ~$11.5 in 2026. In the medium and long term, LNG is expected to be close to or lower than domestic gas, creating advantages for LNG power development.
VNM – Looking forward to the "new GT shirt" to support the recovery of market share
13-05-2025
: VNM
: Consumer Durables
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- VNM's Q1-2025 performance is below our expectations with net revenue of VND 12,935 bn (-8.3% YoY), (of which domestic sales accounting for ~80% of revenue, -12.9% YoY), NPAT-MI of VND 1,569 bn (-28.5% YoY) due to the impact of the restructuring of the GT channel combined with unfavorable price movement from input milk powder and discounted/advertising costs maintaining a high level.
- We look forward to a difficult year 2025 for VNM with many unclarified variables around the efficiency of GT channel innovation and cost structure management. Therefore, we temporarily change our recommendation to MONITOR with VNM stock and set some specific valuation scenarios.
SIP – Conservative targets for the year ahead
12-05-2025
: SIP
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In 1Q2025, SIP recorded positive result, with revenue and gross profit of VND 1.94 tn (USD 77.6mn, +6% YoY, -6%QoQ) and VND 320bn (USD 12.8mn, +17%YoY,+12%QoQ), respectively. Electricity and water distribution for industrial parks (IPs) continues to be the main revenue-generating sector for SIP, with revenue and gross profit to reach VND 1.6 trillion (USD64mn, +7%YoY) and VND 133 billion (USD 5.3mn, +9%YoY), respectively. In terms of sales, the company continued to actively seek leasing clients at Phuoc Dong Industrial Park (Tay Ninh), securing two new contracts with a total leased area of approximately 16 hectares in January 2025
- For 2025 AGM, The company has set a relatively cautious business plan, with projected revenue of VND 5,657 billion (-27% YoY) and net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 832 billion (-35%). Despite industry challenges, including risks from U.S. tariff policies, the company remains confident in achieving its business plan for the year; and current clients are expected to maintain their land leasing plans in the near future.
China’s economy faces mounting growth challenges, prompting decisive policy actions to restore market confidence
09-05-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags: China PBoC Policy
- China’s growth has remained heavily reliant on early-stage export momentum, with downside risks becoming more apparent from Q2 onward.
- A comprehensive stimulus package has been deployed, aiming to revive the underlying growth engine.
Seaport industry – Growth expectations for 2025 weaken as the US erects tariff barriers
08-05-2025
: VSC, GMD, HAH
: Seaports
: Quan Cao
Tags: Seaports GMD HAH VSC
- In April 2024, the estimated export and import values of seaborne container goods reached USD 21 bn (+24% YoY) and USD 15 bn (+20% YoY), respectively. The faster export growth indicates a rush to ship goods, while importers remained cautious in sourcing production materials amid the temporary suspension of the US reciprocal tariffs on Vietnamese goods.
- Container throughput in Hai Phong and Vung Tau recorded solid growth in Q1-FY25, reaching 661 thousand TEUs (+13% YoY) and 598 thousand TEUs (+22% YoY), respectively. This trend aligns with the trade momentum observed in the early months of the year.
- The global trade outlook for 2025 remains uncertain due to tariff barriers and volatile trade policy under President Trump’s second term. According to Drewry, global container traffic may decline by 1% YoY, driven by rising commodity prices, increasing input costs, and falling real income.
- In Vietnam, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 in April 2025 from 50.5 in the previous month, signaling mounting challenges for port cargo flows in 2H2025.
PVD – Q1 Earnings impacted by scheduled rig maintenance
07-05-2025
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: Drilling rig
- We note that PVD’s Q1 2025 earnings were impacted by scheduled rig maintenance, leading to a slight revenue decline. However, net profit remained stable, supported by positive contributions from well-related services and financial income.
- For 2025-2026, we expect Malaysia and Thailand to remain key markets, with long-term contracts making up a large portion of PVD’s operations.
- On investment strategy, we see PVD taking strategic steps to enhance competitiveness, including adding new capacity (PVD VIII) and divesting less efficient assets (PVD 11). Meanwhile, Vietnam’s rig market is offering strong opportunities, with large oil and gas projects underway, supporting PVD’s sustainable growth in the coming period.
VHC – Positive business performance in Q1/2025
06-05-2025
: VHC
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Net revenue in Q1-2025 reach VND 2,648 billion (-7% YoY; -17% QoQ) due to revenue from the pangasius segment decreasing by 7% YoY, mainly due to a decrease in export volume while the average selling price converted to VND is estimated to increase by 9% YoY (USD/VND exchange rate is estimated to increase by 3% YoY).
- Gross profit margin improved on the low base of Q1-2024, reaching 12.7% (+340 bps YoY) mainly due to an estimated 9% YoY increase in average VND-converted selling prices (USD/VND exchange rate is estimated to increase by 3% YoY) and a slight increase in cost of goods when the selling price of raw fish is estimated to increase by 12% YoY and revenue from products with high gross margins such as the C&G segment decreased.
- Our nearest target price is 73,300 VND/share, which is equivalent to a BUY recommendation after the stock price fell sharply in the recent period before the tariff information. We will update our business results and maintain our BUY recommendation with an estimated target price of not lower than 62,500 VND/share as we still maintain VHC's sales ability in the US market.
21-05-2025
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