14-10-2025VNINDEX1773.768.640.49% HNXIndex276.280.930.34% UPCOM112.870.170.15% VN302027.8415.560.77% VN1001948.5712.920.67% HNX30606.831.700.28% VNXALL3052.5318.590.61% VNX503378.425.610.76% VNMID2527.939.270.37% VNSML1573.81-10.54-0.67% Monetary market Update Sep 2025: Balance in the short term
25-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV continued to manage liquidity through collateralized lending in September, with the main trend during the month being issuance to rebalance maturing loans. The outstanding balance of the reverse repo operation fell by 29% compared to the end of August but remained at a high level.
- Alongside the reduction in lending through the SBV’s collateralized channel, interbank market interest rates also declined over the past month.
- Following the Fed’s 25-basis-point policy rate cut at its September 17 meeting, the average overnight USD lending rate also fell. The interest rate differential between USD and VND has become almost negligible.
- In the first half of 2025, credit flows have yet to show any new drivers of growth, with credit growth momentum still coming from: 1. Supporting industries/high-tech enterprises; 2. Trade & transportation; and 3. Securities & Real Estate.
- Regarding targeted credit packages, except for the agricultural and rural lending program, which has been fully disbursed and had its limit raised to VND185 trillion, programs for social housing or infrastructure/digital technology have seen relatively low disbursement rates.
- The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points to 4–4.25% at its September 2025 meeting. However, the meeting’s results brought new expectations of further rate cuts in the near future. The market currently anticipates two more Fed rate cuts at the October and December meetings.
- Last month, the SBV intervened to guide the exchange rate, with commercial banks registering for about USD1.5 billion in non-cancellable forward FX purchases. Along with the decline of the USD, depreciation pressure on the VND also eased from mid-September.
NKG – Efforts in the domestic market
24-09-2025
: NKG
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Steel
- In Q2/2025, NKG posted revenue of VND 3,808 billion (-33% YoY, -7% QoQ), with galvanized steel output at 202 thousand tons (-16% YoY, -2% QoQ), mainly pressured by weakness in the export market, which typically contributes around 70% of its annual sales volume. NKG’s market share of galvanized steel currently stands at 16% (ranking behind HSG and GDA). For 1H/2025, cumulative output reached 407 thousand tons (-13% YoY), declining despite the domestic market delivering strong growth of +95% YoY.
- Gross profit reached VND 270 billion (-47% YoY, +3% QoQ), corresponding to a gross profit margin of 7.1%, which is a slight improvement compared to the previous quarter (6.4%), despite little fluctuation in the selling price of corrugated iron and HRC. The improvement of gross profit margin without adjusting the inventory forecast is a positive signal, showing that the Company still has room to expand the gross margin in the last 2 quarters of the year, especially since the price of HRC in Vietnam has had upward adjustments in the period of August and early September.
U.S. stablecoin regulatory framework - A new transmission channel carrying the usd to the world
23-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Policy pivot: rather than hoarding gold like many central banks, the U.S. is building a digital USD “pipeline” via a triad of bills advanced during Crypto Week (July 14–18, 2025)
- Regulatory pillar: the GENIUS Act limits payment-stablecoin issuance to licensed institutions; after a transition of up to three years, U.S. platforms may support only compliant stablecoins
- USD demand via stablecoins: over 99% of stablecoins are USD-pegged; net outflows from North America were about USD 54bn in 2024, signaling offshore USD demand. Remittances via stablecoins are near-instant with lower fees versus the ~6.5% average in traditional cross-border rails
- Market sizing 2028–2030: (1) Base case: market cap USD 1.0–1.2tn by 2028, USD 1.6tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 600–800bn; (2) Bull case: USD 2.0tn by end-2028, USD 3.7tn by 2030; UST holdings USD 1.0–1.85tn; (3) Cautious case: USD 500–750bn in the next few years; UST holdings USD 250–350bn.
DGW – Accelerating growth in “nascent” segments – Office Equipment & Home Appliance – is essential
23-09-2025
: DGW
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags: DGW
- DGW’s Q2-2025 results met our expectation with net revenue of VND 5,713 bn (+14.4% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 116 bn (+30.0% YoY), driven by the reversal of Q1 financial expenses and strong growth in Laptops & Tablets, particularly Office Equipment (+87.9% YoY) and Home Appliances (+108.4% YoY).
- For 2025, DGW trades at a forward P/E of 17.6x, above its 5-year average (12.8x) and industry average (11-12x). We believe expectations for 2025 revenue and net profit recovery are fully priced into the stock.
- In 2026-30, DGW must accelerate development of Office Equipment & Home Appliance while stemming the decline in Mobile Phone distribution market share to anchor stronger business performance, leading to higher valuation/profit opportunities.
Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN: Enhancing Risk Management and Stabilizing Vietnam’s Banking System in Alignment with Near BASEL III Standards
22-09-2025
: BID, CTG, VCB, MBB, ACB, TCB, VPB, HDB, VIB, OCB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags: Bank's Regulations
- On June 30, 2025, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) issued Circular 14/2025/TT-NHNN (Circular 14), which regulates capital adequacy ratios and takes effect from September 15, 2025, fully replacing Circular 41/2016/TT-NHNN as of January 1, 2030. This Circular aligns closely with Basel III standards, incorporating enhanced provisions on capital quality, risk management, and capital buffers to strengthen the resilience of Vietnam's banking system.
- Fundamentally, the differences between Circular 41 and Circular 14 involve transitioning from Basel II capital adequacy ratio regulations to those approximating Basel III standards, with improvements in capital quality, more flexible risk assessment methodologies, and supplementary capital buffers. Circular 14 not only bolsters banking system stability but also fosters more professional governance practices, aligning with Vietnam's deepening economic integration.
- Circular 14 compels banks currently exhibiting low capital adequacy ratios (CAR) within the system—those not yet meeting the minimum CAR under the four-year implementation roadmap outlined in Circular 14—to optimize their risk-weighted asset portfolios, bolster equity capital through share issuances or by augmenting retained earnings (via accelerated profit growth or reduced cash dividend payout ratios), and issue subordinated bonds to enhance Tier 2 capital, potentially igniting a "race" for capital augmentation and profitability among this cohort of institutions. Conversely, banks with current CAR exceeding the minimum threshold of 10.5% stand to benefit from expanded credit growth opportunities.
- Circular 14 raises capital requirements, enhances crisis resilience, and safeguards the stability and sustainability of the banking system, while paving the way for the SBV to reform the credit growth quota allocation mechanism by incorporating capital adequacy ratios alongside other prudential tools.
Update on retail electricity prices and its financial impact on EVN
22-09-2025
: POW, EVN, REE, GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is gradually shifting the method of determining electricity retail prices according to the trend of marketization and transparency, to reflect the reality of electricity generation costs and related costs in the electricity market.
- The MOIT has also allowed the Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) to increase electricity prices at a maximum of 5%, 3 times a year, without the approval of the MOIT. The adjustments have helped EVN improve its business performance and operate profitably again in 2024.
- Currently, EVN is proposing to readjust the retail price of electricity with 2 suggestion (1) reallocating the Group’s accumulated losses of VND 45 trillion in 2022 and 2023 into retail electricity prices and (2) applying a 2-component electricity price mechanism. These proposals will increase the cost of electricity use (especially for manufacturing industry customers) but will also create financial space for EVN to invest in developing new projects.
TNG – Market diversification and cost optimization drive profit growth
19-09-2025
: TNG
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: Textile & Garment TNG
- In Q2-FY25, TNG’s revenue and NPAT reached VND 2,528 billion (+67% YoY) and VND 120 billion (+39% YoY), respectively, in line with our forecasts (revenue and NPAT projections of VND 2,680 billion and VND 120 billion). Revenue growth mainly came from two major customers: Decathlon and Columbia.
- Optimizing SG&A expenses was a key driver for profit growth, recording VND 152 billion (+6% YoY). The SG&A/revenue ratio was 6% (-59 bps YoY), as the increasing proportion of orders from the U.S. helped reduce SG&A expenses. In addition, TNG’s hedging efficiency improved significantly, thereby contributing to stabilizing net profit (6M2024 FX loss of VND 32 billion vs. only VND 2 billion loss in 6M2025).
- We believe TNG’s current stock valuation still has room for growth, based on positive internal drivers. We set a target price of VND 23,700/share, equivalent to a projected 2025 P/E of 8.8x. Along with an expected cash dividend of VND 800/share over the next 12 months, we recommend ACCUMULATE, with an expected return of 18% compared to the closing price on September 18, 2025.
PVD - Rig operations overview and PV Drilling’s strategic competitive position in global markets
18-09-2025
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVD
- PVD currently operates a rig fleet with relatively competitive costs, supported by a high proportion of local crew and a younger rig age profile compared to the regional average. This reduces maintenance requirements and downtime. Operational efficiency remains strong, with jack-up utilization at 98% and stable HSE performance.
- On the market side, all rigs are fully contracted, with day-rates trending upward from 2024 into 2025. The company has secured multiple long-term extensions, ensuring backlog visibility through 2028 across key international markets.
- Latest update: PVD VIII has been successfully reactivated and commenced drilling in Vietnam from September 2025, while PVD IX is undergoing reactivation in Denmark and is expected to begin its first drilling campaign by late Q1/2026.
KDH – Expected to accelerate from the fourth quarter thanks to the opening and handover of the Gladia project
17-09-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- Accumulated in 6M2025, revenue reached VND 1,756 billion (+79% YoY) and parent shareholders' profit reached VND 321 billion. In the second quarter alone, revenue increased sharply by 47% QoQ thanks to the handover of the rest of The Privia (~200 units and 20 shophouses) and inventory restructuring, contributing significantly to business results.
- By the end of the second quarter of 2025, KDH's inventory reached VND 23,007 billion (+12% YoY), continuing to grow thanks to site clearance activities and infrastructure deployment at key projects such as Tan Tao, Binh Trung – Binh Trung Dong and Solina residential areas.
- The Gladia project is expected to become the main growth driver for KDH in the second half of the year, with plans to officially open for sale in September–October 2025. We expect the project to contribute about VND 5,650 billion to total revenue in 2025, with revenue for the whole year of 2025 projected to reach VND 7,431 billion (+127% YoY), and profit and profit at VND 1,114 billion (+37.7% YoY).
GDA – Signs of gradual recovery are becoming evident.
16-09-2025
: GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In Q2 2025, GDA recorded revenue of VND 4,257 billion (-29% YoY, +7% QoQ), with galvanized steel sales volume reaching 202,000 tons (-14% YoY, +2% QoQ), reflecting a decline compared to Q2 2024, which saw elevated output driven by strong export market performance. Amid trade defense risks from importing countries, the company continued to shift its order composition toward the domestic market, achieving a domestic sales volume of 142,000 tons (+44% YoY, +21% QoQ), securing the second-largest market share and accounting for 16% of total domestic galvanized steel production.
- Gross profit margin (GPM) continued its recovery, reaching 7.9% (a slight increase from 7.1% in Q1 2025), corresponding to a gross profit of VND 337 billion (-38% YoY, +19% QoQ). This improvement was driven by stable raw material and finished product prices in Q2 (HRC prices remained at USD 500–510/ton), coupled with the company’s reversal of inventory devaluation provisions (~VND 65 billion). By the end of Q2, the inventory devaluation provision balance stood at VND 107 billion, providing room for further provision reversals in subsequent quarters, especially as finished product prices have seen increases during August–September
Trade Update Sep 2025: FDI and Electronics drive export growth
15-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Despite the new tariffs that came into effect in early August, Vietnam’s exports remained fairly strong, rising 14.8% YoY. Similar to the previous month, the FDI sector continued to serve as the backbone of exports (+27.3%), while domestic exports dropped sharply (-15.7%).
- A positive development in last month’s trade performance was the widening trade surplus, which increased from USD2.3 billion in the previous month to USD3.7 billion, driven by an expanding surplus in the FDI sector and a narrowing trade deficit in the domestic sector.
- By product category, except for seafood, chemicals, and transport vehicles, the FDI sector recorded superior export growth. The most notable contrasts were seen in the divergent performance of paper and electronics, as well as the significant growth gap in agricultural products, plastics, rubber, textiles, footwear, and handbags.
- The strong export growth was largely driven by the electronics sector (+36.9% YoY), which contributed 80% to the overall export growth. This momentum is expected to be sustained, given the robust increase in electronics imports (+41.9% YoY, contributing 76% to import growth).
- By export market, shipments to the US have moderated but still maintained a high growth rate (+18% YoY), while exports to non-US markets remained resilient (+17% YoY). Notably, exports to China registered a strong gain of over 22% for the second consecutive month.
- The new tariffs have affected demand for Vietnamese exports to the US such as seafood, agricultural products, textiles, and garments. However, some tariff-affected goods such as chemicals, plastics, rubber, paper, and toys still recorded solid growth. This likely reflects a shift in trade flows, as Vietnam’s retaliatory tariffs remain significantly lower than those of China.
- President Trump’s retaliatory tariffs are currently facing legal challenges, with the Federal Appeals Court ruling that the President exceeded the authority granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In the meantime, the tariffs remain in place at least until the Supreme Court issues a final ruling, expected in Q42025 or Q12026.
- On August 27, the US officially imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is considered a favorable development for Vietnam’s trade prospects. In mid-September 2025, the U.S. and China will commence their fourth round of negotiations, with the addition of TikTok-related issues on the agenda. This round is expected to pave the way for a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea in October.
Fisheries industry –Fish industry Q2/2025 performance grows strongly under tariff fluctuations
12-09-2025
: VHC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue and NPATMI in Q2/2025 of 6 fishery enterprises recorded strong growth of 9% and 153% YoY, respectively. In which, ANV business grew the strongest 14 times as the addition of tilapia and red tilapia besides pangasius. While VHC enterprises grew lower but still maintained a high level of 57% YoY.
- Accumulated 6M2025, NPAT- MI increased by 126% YoY with gross profit increasing by 55% YoY. Gross margin improved, businesses improved as the growth in selling prices in all markets. The selling price of the whole market/US/China/EU/Brazil in 1H2025 recorded a growth of 4%/1%/2%/3% while feed prices decreased by 6% YoY.
- In 2H2025, VHC expects to maintain strong growth momentum in HoH while ANV is somewhat weaker due to the sharp decline in the selling price of tilapia products. Pangasius production is expected to increase again in 2H2025 because the US tends to pre-stock tilapia in 1H2025 when China's tariffs are expected to be higher than Vietnam's.
- In 2H2025, the fish industry expects growth thanks to the gradual decrease in raw pangasius prices in HoH while the selling price converted to VND increase HoH when (1) year-end holiday consumption demand is still still due to the total production of imported pangasius in 1H2025 only increasing by 5% YoY and (2) the average selling price through the US is still lower than 3 USD/kg and (3) the exchange rate is estimated to increase 3% YoY.
25-09-2025
111 
