21-11-2025VNINDEX1654.93-1.06-0.06% HNXIndex263.13-1.10-0.42% UPCOM118.69-0.82-0.69% VN301899.892.430.13% VN1001802.47-1.92-0.11% HNX30577.840.070.01% VNXALL2831.78-2.95-0.10% VNX503125.36-3.04-0.10% VNMID2280.74-15.52-0.68% VNSML1524.75-3.95-0.26% MSN – Operational efficiency improvement journey remains on track
05-11-2025
: MSN
: Food, Beverage & Tobacco
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- In Q3-2025, MSN recorded net revenue of VND 21,164 bn (+15.6% QoQ, -1.5% YoY), and NPAT-MI of VND 1,208 bn (+17.1% QoQ, +72.4% YoY), in line with our expectation. Similar to Q2-2025, these results were driven by margin improvements at WCM, MHT, MML, and PLH, as well as contributions from TCB, despite adverse impacts from MCH.
- We maintain our 2025 earnings forecast for MSN with NPAT-MI at VND 3,691 bn (+84.6% YoY), and a target price of VND 93,600 per share, corresponding to a BUY recommendation.
Q3-2025 Banking Sector Earnings Update: Credit Growth Sustains Momentum While Deposit Mobilization Abruptly Decelerates; Asset Quality Shows Marginal Improvement
04-11-2025
: CTG, BID, VCB, MBB, ACB, TCB, VPB
: Banking
: Tung Do
Tags:
- Industry pre-tax profit in Q3-2025 reached VND 87 trillion (+25% YoY, -2% QoQ), driven by robust growth in total operating income, supported by multiple non-interest income components, alongside a moderate increase in credit costs. For 9M25, aggregate PBT of listed banks amounted to nearly VND 260 trillion, reflecting 19% YoY growth and achieving 74% of the full-year 2025 target.
- Credit outstanding of listed banks as of 9M25 stood at VND 13.8 quadrillion (contributing 78% to total system-wide credit exposure), with year-to-date (YTD) growth of 14.5% (versus 13.4% for the overall system), exceeding the 11.1% YTD growth recorded in 9M24. The divergence in credit growth rates across banks has narrowed compared to the prior quarter, as many institutions approach their annual credit limits assigned at the start of the year and shift focus toward optimizing portfolio yield rather than scale expansion.
- Deposit mobilization growth for listed banks slowed to 11.4% YTD by Q3-2025 (from 10.0% at end-Q2-2025), widening the deposit-credit growth gap to -3.1 percentage points. To safeguard liquidity amid limited certificate of deposit (CD) issuance in Q3-2025 and subdued deposit inflows, commercial banks significantly ramped up interbank market activity (VND 480 trillion) and continued to raise deposit rates. This was complemented by government liquidity support, with the State Treasury expanding term deposits (over VND 100 trillion) at state-owned commercial banks.
- Industry NIM declined 10 basis points QoQ to 3.0%, matching the Q1-2025 trough and 30 basis points below the year-ago level, as funding costs rose faster than asset yields. The deposit-credit growth disparity, coupled with elevated year-end credit disbursement demand, is expected to exert further pressure on funding costs and NIM.
- On-balance-sheet NPLs across the industry increased by approximately VND 7 trillion QoQ to VND 274 trillion, with the NPL ratio at 2.01% (Q2-2025: 2.04%). This remains non-concerning, however, as net new NPL formation continued to decelerate from the prior quarter to VND 28 trillion, while banks proactively scaled back risk resolution activities to approximately VND 21 trillion (below net NPL formation). Furthermore, specific provisioning was strengthened (VND 34 trillion), lifting the industry loan loss reserve (LLR) coverage ratio marginally to 96% (Q2-2025: 91%).
KDH – Profit growth thanks to the handover of the Gladia project
03-11-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- Accumulated in 9M2025, KDH recorded revenue of VND 2,855 billion (+132% YoY) and profit after tax - parent shareholders (EBITDA) of VND 556 billion (35% YoY). Gross profit margin and profit margin - profit margin reached 52% and 19%, respectively. In the third quarter alone, revenue and profit after tax reached VND 1,098 billion (+5% QoQ, +335% YoY) and VND 235 billion (+18% QoQ, +234% YoY) respectively when the handover of the Gladia project began.
- By the end of the third quarter of 2025, KDH's inventory continued to maintain a high level of VND 23,085 billion (+2.8% YoY), continuing to grow thanks to site clearance activities and infrastructure deployment at key projects such as Tan Tao, Binh Trung – Binh Trung Dong, Phong Phu 2 and Solina, etc to compensate for the decrease in value from the handover of the Gladia project.
- The Gladia project is expected to become the main growth driver for KDH in the second half of the year. We expect the project to contribute about VND 5,650 billion to total revenue in 2025, with revenue for the whole year of 2025 projected to reach VND 7,431 billion (+126% YoY), LNST-CDM reach VND 1,114 billion (+38% YoY).
U.S. credit market remains resilient to short-term shocks
31-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- Collapse of First Brands and Tricolor amplifies credit quality concerns in the U.S. private sector
- Economic resilience and capital buffers keep U.S. Financial system under control
Gold Exchange: Information on the pilot and reference to the Shanghai Gold Exchange
30-10-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags:
- In October 2025, the SBV proposed 03 pilot models for establishing a gold exchange: (1) Establishment of a National Gold Exchange; (2) Allowing gold to be traded on the commodity exchange; (3) Setting up a gold exchange in the Vietnamese international financial center. The pilot project requires a trial-and-error mechanism to allow for step-by-step refinement throughout implementation process, in order to align with Vietnam’s evolving economic context, available resources, infrastructure capacity, and the gradual development of a comprehensive legal and regulatory framework.
- In the Asian region, we consider the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) to be a relevant reference model for Vietnam’s pilot gold exchange, for several reasons: (1) It was established and supervised by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), has operated for many years, and possesses a relatively mature regulatory and operational framework; (2) Its trading activities are primarily focused on physical spot gold, which aligns with Vietnam’s initial pilot phase; (3) It features a clear and well-structured membership system, along with a roadmap for expanding market participation from domestic members and investors to international participants.
Vietnam Petroleum supply – demand outlook and Impact on retail fuel companies
29-10-2025
: PLX, OIL
: Petroleum Distribution
: Huong Le
Tags: E10 biofuel Electric vehicles (EVs) BEVs PHEVs
- We believe Vietnam’s petroleum market remains in a relatively balanced supply–demand condition, with the Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries together meeting around 70% of domestic demand. However, dependence on imported ethanol and fluctuations in global crude prices remain key risks.
- Fuel volume demand is expected to grow steadily by 3 - 4% per year through 2030, supported by economic recovery and transport infrastructure expansion. Nonetheless, growth momentum will likely moderate post-2028 as electric vehicles (EVs) become more common and energy efficiency policies tighten. In addition, the shift toward E10 biofuel could open opportunities for market share expansion for PLX and other leading players, though challenges related to ethanol costs and blending infrastructure investment.
- We also expect the rise of electric vehicles (EVs) in Vietnam to have only a limited impact on fuel demand in the short term. Over the long term, the effect will depend on factors like government incentives, charging infrastructure development, and production costs. International experience shows that EV adoption usually varies across markets and does not grow in a straight line.
LHG - Shortage of revenue from IP land lease
28-10-2025
: LHG
: Industrial Land RE
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: IP
- In Q3, LHG reported revenue of VND 112 billion (+23% YoY, -50% QoQ), comprising: 1/ VND 55 billion from leasing ready-built factories (RBFs) – driven by high occupancy rates at existing facilities, with no new projects commencing operations; 2/ No revenue recognized from industrial land leasing, as no new tenants were secured (versus positive contributions in 1H2025). LHG posted modest net profit after tax (NPAT) of VND 46 billion (+10% YoY, -49% QoQ) – in line with expectations given the absence of land leasing revenue.
- Regarding the high-rise factory project (Phase 2, 26,000 m² GLA), the external structure is now complete, with ongoing work focused on fire protection systems and internal infrastructure fit-out. The company maintains its schedule for inauguration in December 2025, positioning the asset for leasing eligibility in 2026 – a key driver supporting projected RBF revenue of VND 252 billion in 2026 (+15.6% YoY).
Monetary Market update Otc 2025: Interest rate and Exchange rate undercurrents
27-10-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- The SBV raised the lending scale in the open market operations (OMO) in October. Overall, the SBV did not significantly boost liquidity support for the banking system during the month. However, the pace of net injections tended to accelerate from mid-October, when interbank interest rates surpassed the 5.0% per annum threshold.
- With the SBV’s cautious policy stance, we expect interbank rates to remain elevated in the final months of the year. At the same time, the upward trend in deposit rates at commercial banks is likely to become more evident as credit growth accelerates in the last quarter.
- Given the current growth momentum and referencing historical credit patterns in the fourth quarter of previous years, total credit growth in 2025 is estimated at 19–20%, exceeding the SBV’s initial target of 16%.
- Over the past month, several fragmented warnings from the authorities have been issued regarding the issuance and use of bond mobilization funds by credit institutions, tighter control over lending for real estate deposits under private agreements, and enhanced supervision to prevent arbitrage between official and unofficial exchange rates.
- The record-high gap between the official and free-market exchange rates reflects, to some extent, limited USD supply both within and outside the banking system. In the short term, the SBV’s committed future foreign currency supply (around USD 4.4 billion) serves as a key anchor for the official exchange rate. Nonetheless, we believe that the abnormal spread between the two markets will not persist for long. Moreover, the free-market exchange rate movements may be pricing in expectations of VND depreciation pressure in 2026
SCS – The recovery of international cargo volume helped the company regain its growth momentum
24-10-2025
: SCS
: Aviation
: Quan Cao
Tags: Aviation SCS
- Revenue and NPAT reached VND 311 billion (+7% QoQ, +17% YoY) and VND 204 billion (+8% QoQ, +10% YoY), respectively. The company’s performance regained growth momentum in Q3-FY25, supported by the recovery of international cargo volume during the peak season and the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
- Profitability ratios remained stable at high levels during Q3-FY25. The gross margin stayed resilient at 80% (-1.1 pps QoQ, -0.6 pps YoY). The SG&A/revenue ratio was well-controlled at 5.2% (-0.4 pps QoQ, +0.1 pps YoY). The net profit margin stood at 64.8% (+1 pps QoQ, -7 pps YoY). The YoY contraction in net margin mainly reflected the expiration of SCS’s preferential corporate income tax rate.
- In October 2025, SCS’s share price experienced a short-term correction following news that Vietnam Airlines was selected as the investor of Cargo Terminal No. 2 at Long Thanh International Airport. However, we believe this development does not materially alter SCS’s long-term outlook, as the company’s strategic focus is on becoming the operator of Cargo Terminal No. 1. Moreover, there has been no official announcement regarding the selection of the operating entity for this terminal. We maintain a OBSERVE recommendation on SCS.
NT2– Q3/2025 business performance maintains growth momentum
23-10-2025
: NT2
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q3/2025, NT2's revenue increased by 13% YoY (-7% YoY), while profit after tax – minority interest increased sharply (+384% YoY).
- NT2's quarterly gross profit margin reached 10.6% (+7.1 pps YoY) thanks to a high contractual output (Qc) exceeding actual production and a 4% YoY decline in gas fuel prices.
- In 2025, NT2 benefits from an unusually high alpha rate and Qc output exceeding actual production, but this trend is unlikely to last and may return to 85–90% from 1Q2026.
- In Q4/2025, we expect the company's Qm and Qc output to improve by 20%/58% YoY, thanks to high mobilization demand in the year-end period.
- NT2's business performance in 2026 is expected to continue to improve thanks to (1) the ENSO cycle moving to the neutral phase, boosting gas-fired power mobilization, and (2) gross profit margin supported by stable fuel prices and a sharp decline in depreciation costs.
BMP and NTP: Q3-2025 Business Results Update
22-10-2025
: BMP, NTP
: Materials
: Duong Tran
Tags: Plastic
- Revenue: Revenue of BMP and NTP reached 1.532 trillion VND (+9% YoY; +17% QoQ) and 1.609 trillion VND (+34% YoY; -19% QoQ), respectively, both at high levels for the period from 2019 to 2025. BMP's positive revenue growth compared to NTP is mainly supported by the southern consumption market (BMP's main market) recovering better than the northern market (NTP's main market) due to the impact of storms and rains.
- Gross profit: BMP and NTP's gross profits remained high thanks to low plastic resin costs, reaching 734 billion VND (+21%
YoY, +48% QoQ) and 500 billion VND (+46% YoY, -22% QoQ), respectively. - Discount policy: BMP significantly increased sales discounts, while NTP showed no significant changes.
Net profit: BMP and NTP recorded historically high net profits, reaching 350 billion VND (+21% YoY; +6.3% QoQ) and 257
billion VND (+18.5% YoY; -19.6% QoQ), respectively. - Financial structure: In general, the financial structure of both BMP and NTP is strong, with high cash reserves and low debtto-equity ratios
OCB – Positive credit growth outlook for the 2025-2026 period
21-10-2025
: OCB
: Banking
: Trang To
Tags: OCB
- OCB’s credit growth in the first half of 2025 remained modest (8.2% YTD) compared to the industry average (9.9% YTD). Growth momentum mainly came from lending to the Construction (+140% YTD) and Real Estate business (+18% YTD) sectors.
- In late 2025 and 2026, OCB’s credit portfolio is expected to expand rapidly, driven by borrowing demand from property developers and construction contractors for project development. In addition, upcoming linked real estate projects are likely to boost mortgage products for individual homebuyers, thereby improving the retail lending segment, which has been underperforming, and expanding NIM.
- OCB’s PBT is projected to reach over VND 4.5 trillion in 2025 and VND 5.7 trillion in 2026, equivalent to YoY growth of 13% and 26%, respectively, based on expected credit growth of 20.3% and 18.2% for 2025F and 2026F. We value OCB shares at VND 14,850 per share, implying an upside potential of 19% compared to the closing price of VND 12,450 on October 21, 2025.
05-11-2025
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