Update on retail electricity prices and its financial impact on EVN
22-09-2025
: POW, EVN, REE, GEG
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MoIT) is gradually shifting the method of determining electricity retail prices according to the trend of marketization and transparency, to reflect the reality of electricity generation costs and related costs in the electricity market.
- The MOIT has also allowed the Vietnam Electricity Group (EVN) to increase electricity prices at a maximum of 5%, 3 times a year, without the approval of the MOIT. The adjustments have helped EVN improve its business performance and operate profitably again in 2024.
- Currently, EVN is proposing to readjust the retail price of electricity with 2 suggestion (1) reallocating the Group’s accumulated losses of VND 45 trillion in 2022 and 2023 into retail electricity prices and (2) applying a 2-component electricity price mechanism. These proposals will increase the cost of electricity use (especially for manufacturing industry customers) but will also create financial space for EVN to invest in developing new projects.
TNG – Market diversification and cost optimization drive profit growth
19-09-2025
: TNG
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: TNG Textile & Garment
- In Q2-FY25, TNG’s revenue and NPAT reached VND 2,528 billion (+67% YoY) and VND 120 billion (+39% YoY), respectively, in line with our forecasts (revenue and NPAT projections of VND 2,680 billion and VND 120 billion). Revenue growth mainly came from two major customers: Decathlon and Columbia.
- Optimizing SG&A expenses was a key driver for profit growth, recording VND 152 billion (+6% YoY). The SG&A/revenue ratio was 6% (-59 bps YoY), as the increasing proportion of orders from the U.S. helped reduce SG&A expenses. In addition, TNG’s hedging efficiency improved significantly, thereby contributing to stabilizing net profit (6M2024 FX loss of VND 32 billion vs. only VND 2 billion loss in 6M2025).
- We believe TNG’s current stock valuation still has room for growth, based on positive internal drivers. We set a target price of VND 23,700/share, equivalent to a projected 2025 P/E of 8.8x. Along with an expected cash dividend of VND 800/share over the next 12 months, we recommend ACCUMULATE, with an expected return of 18% compared to the closing price on September 18, 2025.
PVD - Rig operations overview and PV Drilling’s strategic competitive position in global markets
18-09-2025
: PVD
: Oil & Gas
: Huong Le
Tags: PVD
- PVD currently operates a rig fleet with relatively competitive costs, supported by a high proportion of local crew and a younger rig age profile compared to the regional average. This reduces maintenance requirements and downtime. Operational efficiency remains strong, with jack-up utilization at 98% and stable HSE performance.
- On the market side, all rigs are fully contracted, with day-rates trending upward from 2024 into 2025. The company has secured multiple long-term extensions, ensuring backlog visibility through 2028 across key international markets.
- Latest update: PVD VIII has been successfully reactivated and commenced drilling in Vietnam from September 2025, while PVD IX is undergoing reactivation in Denmark and is expected to begin its first drilling campaign by late Q1/2026.
KDH – Expected to accelerate from the fourth quarter thanks to the opening and handover of the Gladia project
17-09-2025
: KDH
: Real Estate
: Giao Nguyen
Tags: KDH
- Accumulated in 6M2025, revenue reached VND 1,756 billion (+79% YoY) and parent shareholders' profit reached VND 321 billion. In the second quarter alone, revenue increased sharply by 47% QoQ thanks to the handover of the rest of The Privia (~200 units and 20 shophouses) and inventory restructuring, contributing significantly to business results.
- By the end of the second quarter of 2025, KDH's inventory reached VND 23,007 billion (+12% YoY), continuing to grow thanks to site clearance activities and infrastructure deployment at key projects such as Tan Tao, Binh Trung – Binh Trung Dong and Solina residential areas.
- The Gladia project is expected to become the main growth driver for KDH in the second half of the year, with plans to officially open for sale in September–October 2025. We expect the project to contribute about VND 5,650 billion to total revenue in 2025, with revenue for the whole year of 2025 projected to reach VND 7,431 billion (+127% YoY), and profit and profit at VND 1,114 billion (+37.7% YoY).
GDA – Signs of gradual recovery are becoming evident.
16-09-2025
: GDA
: Materials
: Thach Lam Do, CFA
Tags: Steel
- In Q2 2025, GDA recorded revenue of VND 4,257 billion (-29% YoY, +7% QoQ), with galvanized steel sales volume reaching 202,000 tons (-14% YoY, +2% QoQ), reflecting a decline compared to Q2 2024, which saw elevated output driven by strong export market performance. Amid trade defense risks from importing countries, the company continued to shift its order composition toward the domestic market, achieving a domestic sales volume of 142,000 tons (+44% YoY, +21% QoQ), securing the second-largest market share and accounting for 16% of total domestic galvanized steel production.
- Gross profit margin (GPM) continued its recovery, reaching 7.9% (a slight increase from 7.1% in Q1 2025), corresponding to a gross profit of VND 337 billion (-38% YoY, +19% QoQ). This improvement was driven by stable raw material and finished product prices in Q2 (HRC prices remained at USD 500–510/ton), coupled with the company’s reversal of inventory devaluation provisions (~VND 65 billion). By the end of Q2, the inventory devaluation provision balance stood at VND 107 billion, providing room for further provision reversals in subsequent quarters, especially as finished product prices have seen increases during August–September
Trade Update Sep 2025: FDI and Electronics drive export growth
15-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: My Tran
Tags: VDS
- Despite the new tariffs that came into effect in early August, Vietnam’s exports remained fairly strong, rising 14.8% YoY. Similar to the previous month, the FDI sector continued to serve as the backbone of exports (+27.3%), while domestic exports dropped sharply (-15.7%).
- A positive development in last month’s trade performance was the widening trade surplus, which increased from USD2.3 billion in the previous month to USD3.7 billion, driven by an expanding surplus in the FDI sector and a narrowing trade deficit in the domestic sector.
- By product category, except for seafood, chemicals, and transport vehicles, the FDI sector recorded superior export growth. The most notable contrasts were seen in the divergent performance of paper and electronics, as well as the significant growth gap in agricultural products, plastics, rubber, textiles, footwear, and handbags.
- The strong export growth was largely driven by the electronics sector (+36.9% YoY), which contributed 80% to the overall export growth. This momentum is expected to be sustained, given the robust increase in electronics imports (+41.9% YoY, contributing 76% to import growth).
- By export market, shipments to the US have moderated but still maintained a high growth rate (+18% YoY), while exports to non-US markets remained resilient (+17% YoY). Notably, exports to China registered a strong gain of over 22% for the second consecutive month.
- The new tariffs have affected demand for Vietnamese exports to the US such as seafood, agricultural products, textiles, and garments. However, some tariff-affected goods such as chemicals, plastics, rubber, paper, and toys still recorded solid growth. This likely reflects a shift in trade flows, as Vietnam’s retaliatory tariffs remain significantly lower than those of China.
- President Trump’s retaliatory tariffs are currently facing legal challenges, with the Federal Appeals Court ruling that the President exceeded the authority granted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In the meantime, the tariffs remain in place at least until the Supreme Court issues a final ruling, expected in Q42025 or Q12026.
- On August 27, the US officially imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, which is considered a favorable development for Vietnam’s trade prospects. In mid-September 2025, the U.S. and China will commence their fourth round of negotiations, with the addition of TikTok-related issues on the agenda. This round is expected to pave the way for a meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in South Korea in October.
Fisheries industry –Fish industry Q2/2025 performance grows strongly under tariff fluctuations
12-09-2025
: VHC, ANV
: Fishery
: Hien Le
Tags:
- Revenue and NPATMI in Q2/2025 of 6 fishery enterprises recorded strong growth of 9% and 153% YoY, respectively. In which, ANV business grew the strongest 14 times as the addition of tilapia and red tilapia besides pangasius. While VHC enterprises grew lower but still maintained a high level of 57% YoY.
- Accumulated 6M2025, NPAT- MI increased by 126% YoY with gross profit increasing by 55% YoY. Gross margin improved, businesses improved as the growth in selling prices in all markets. The selling price of the whole market/US/China/EU/Brazil in 1H2025 recorded a growth of 4%/1%/2%/3% while feed prices decreased by 6% YoY.
- In 2H2025, VHC expects to maintain strong growth momentum in HoH while ANV is somewhat weaker due to the sharp decline in the selling price of tilapia products. Pangasius production is expected to increase again in 2H2025 because the US tends to pre-stock tilapia in 1H2025 when China's tariffs are expected to be higher than Vietnam's.
- In 2H2025, the fish industry expects growth thanks to the gradual decrease in raw pangasius prices in HoH while the selling price converted to VND increase HoH when (1) year-end holiday consumption demand is still still due to the total production of imported pangasius in 1H2025 only increasing by 5% YoY and (2) the average selling price through the US is still lower than 3 USD/kg and (3) the exchange rate is estimated to increase 3% YoY.
MWG – BHX's profit growth momentum surged following Q2-2025’s results
11-09-2025
: MWG
: Retailing
: Hung Nguyen
Tags:
- MWG's Q2-2025 results surpassed our expectation by 18%, with net sales of VND 36,135 bn (+14.8% YoY) and NPAT-MI of VND 1,648 bn (+6.6% QoQ, +40.6% YoY), driven by significantly improved BHX profitability (net margin rose from 0.3% in Q1-2025 to 1.6% in Q2-2025) and accelerated financial investment activities (+38.0% YoY).
- MWG's stock profit potential lies in the “BHX northward expansion” strategy, which is gradually proving effective, unlocking profit growth from Q2-2025.
- We raise our short-term valuation based on 2025F result and the positive business outlook for the next year, targeting VND 87,100 per share (including a VND 1,000 cash dividend per share), using the SoTP method in the short term. Note that the long-term target price will be updated after a comprehensive assessment of the company’s long-term context.
- We increase our 2025F’s net profit forecast for MWG by 21%, reflecting a significantly more positive business environment compared to our latest forecast, driven by all three pillars: (1) TGDD & DMX, (2) BHX, and (3) financial investment activities.
PNJ – New Decree on gold trading activities: Unlocking opportunities amid transitional risks
10-09-2025
: PNJ
: Retailing
: Anh Tran
Tags: Decree 232/2025/ND-/CP PNJ
- Decree 232/2025/ND-CP, issued on August 26, 2025, amends and supplements several provisions of Decree 24/2012/ND-CP in response to existing shortcomings in the market. This is considered both a necessary and appropriate move to “unlock” the gold market for more efficient operation, addressing input bottlenecks for jewelry manufacturers while maintaining the State’s supervisory role.
- PNJ is among the enterprises that meet the charter capital and other requirements under the regulation. We believe that the amendments under Decree 232 may not have an immediate impact on the company’s target and outlook in 2025 - 2026, but are expected to remove the long-standing bottleneck of raw gold supply in the long term, which is a key input risk.
- Input material risks are expected to be eased (reduced but not eliminated). Given the recent surge in gold prices to record highs alongside ongoing supply tightness, the next steps regarding licensing, import/export quotas, and effective enforcement will need close monitoring.
REE – Business results Q2/2025: hydropower, real estate shine
09-09-2025
: REE
: Power
: Nguyen Duc Chinh
Tags:
- In Q2/2025, REE's parent company's revenue and profit after tax-minority interest (NPAT-MI) increased by 15% and 76% YoY, respectively, equivalent to 98%/134% of the analyst' forecast, and completed of 45%/51% of the company's plan
- The recovery in hydropower production (+48% YoY) and effective cost management helped the increase NPAT-MI of the entire energy segment by 143% YoY.
- The M&E segment’s NPAT-MI increased by 140% YoY, thanks to the contribution of the M&E contractor segment.
- The net profit of the real estate and office leasing segment increased by 40% YoY thanks to the recording of revenue from the transfer of apartments block and town house in The Light Square – Thai Binh project.
Vietnam bond market report Aug 2025 - G-bonds languish; corporate bonds stage a comeback
08-09-2025
: VDS
: Macroeconomics
: Toan Vo
Tags:
- August auction allotment reached VND 11.465 tn, the lowest YTD and a steep drop versus July. 8M cumulative issuance: VND 238.714 tn (47.7% of the annual plan); 3Q through end-Aug: VND 37.3 tn (31.1% of the quarterly plan), confirming a clear slowdown in supply. The bid-to-offer ratio fell to 48.5% and the award rate to 24.1% (both YTD lows), sliding week after week since early August. Softer primary demand suggests VGBs are less competitive at current yields as they compete with accelerating private-sector lending into year-end.
- The State Treasury plans to call VND 81 tn in September, a large single-month target but the award ratio is unlikely to improve materially near term.
- Turnover re-accelerated in August to VND 389 tn (outright 76.3% - VND 297 tn; repo - VND 92 tn). Average daily value rose to VND 14 tn (+37.8% MoM), consistent with active portfolio rebalancing as yields trend higher.
- The market rebounded strongly in August with VND 47.713 tn issued (+47% MoM, −8.2% YoY) across 47 tranches; 8M cumulative: VND 318.041 tn (+39.8% YoY). Banks remained the anchor, printing at 5.3–5.9% p.a. for 2–3Y tenors; notable prints: OCB VND 4.8 tn and BAB VND 3.2 tn. In real estate, VHM stood out with VND 15 tn, 3.5-year tenor, 11% coupon.
- Early redemptions, maturities, and risk. Buybacks recovered to VND 39.782 tn (+150.3% YoY), largely from banks (notably Aug-2024 vintages) to manage duration and costs, leveraging lower funding rates to pave the way for new, lower-coupon issuance. The maturity wall eased after a YTD peak in August (VND 36 tn): September maturities are VND 17 tn. Property credit risk remains elevated: 10 developers disclosed delays in principal/coupon payments in August; notably, Hano-Vid extended 110 tranches worth >VND 5.2 tn to 2027.
- Activity cooled versus July’s high (VND 132.028 tn; VND 5.74 tn/day), with August turnover at VND 109.288 tn (−17.2% MoM).
MSH – Improving fundamentals, supported by strong profitability and attractive valuation
05-09-2025
: MSH
: Textile & Garment
: Quan Cao
Tags: MSH Textile & Garment
- In Q2-FY25, MSH posted NPAT of VND 180bn (+96% YoY), well above our expectations, thanks to sustained high gross margins in the CMT segment, outperforming industry norms. This was driven by new Chinese customers onboarded since Q4-FY24.
- We believe MSH has re-rating potential given improving fundamentals and attractive valuation. The stock is trading at 7.6x fwd P/E and 5.6x fwd EV/EBITDA, which are 10%/20% below its 5-year historical average and 16%/13% below industry median, respectively. In addition, with a consistent dividend track record, we expect MSH to maintain a cash dividend of VND 2,500/share (7% yield based on closing price on Sep 04, 2025).
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